A few notes about the Wisconsin Supreme Court election:
1) The large, heavily populated Waukesha County suburbs of Brookfield and Menomonee Falls continue to trend Democratic. Both used to be heavily Republican - Brookfield voted 64% for John McCain in 2008, and was 3-1 Republican in that infamous 2011 Supreme Court election where conserv…
A few notes about the Wisconsin Supreme Court election:
1) The large, heavily populated Waukesha County suburbs of Brookfield and Menomonee Falls continue to trend Democratic. Both used to be heavily Republican - Brookfield voted 64% for John McCain in 2008, and was 3-1 Republican in that infamous 2011 Supreme Court election where conservative David Prosser barely beat liberal JoAnn Kloppenburg. But both have gradually but steadily shifted left during the Trump era. Last year, Trump won Brookfield by 5 and Menomonee Falls by 7, and both voted for Dan Kelly in 2023 by 53-47 margins. This time, Schimel's margins in both Brookfield and Menomonee Falls were less than 2 percent. It's a reasonable assumption that the next time a Democrat wins Wisconsin by a 55-45 margin, they'll carry both Brookfield and Menomonee Falls. And in 10 years, Dems will probably be routinely winning both in most elections. What an insane shift that would be - to see all that blue in Waukesha County. (And Crawford replicated Protasiewicz's victory in the city of Waukesha - expanding the margin of victory from 0.6% to 2%.)
2) Several rural counties swung from Protasiewicz in 2023 to Schimel this year, including Lafayette, Grant, Jackson, Dunn, and Pierce. However, Crawford was able to pull out a victory in Racine County, just south of Milwaukee, despite the fact that none of the previous Democratic Supreme Court winners (Dallet, Karofsky, and Protasiewicz) won it. This important county flip came about largely due to increased minority turnout in the city of Racine - it swung from 66% Protasiewicz to 70% Crawford.
3) It is honestly quite encouraging that, despite rural areas continuing to trend Republican, the topline of the election result remained mostly unchanged.
Turnout overall was higher this go-around., which may explain some of the shifts from 2023.
Apparently Republicans turnout target was based on the number of votes they would have needed to beat Protasiewicz, which they met, but Crawford got almost 300,000 more votes, so they didn't come close to actually winning.
Doesn’t it usually work the other way in Wisconsin, where there is usually an after midnight drop of Milwaukee and Green Bay absentees that give the Democrat a boost?
Baldwin's opponent, Leah Vukmir, was from the WOW counties, so that skewed the results there a bit. Vukmir won Brookfield by 19 and Menomonee Falls by 15. (Vukmir also won Mequon, in Ozaukee County by 11, while Crawford won it by 7 now.)
Plus, 2018 was right when the suburbs really started turning and the WOW ones started off much redder. When I went to Milwaukee and drove through Waukesha, I was expecting to see some suburbs. I was expecting a bigger city out of Milwaukee so doesn’t seem like they have the makings of blue suburbs due to a lack of major employers which creates the big box McMansion suburbs that have flipped blue.
People often forget that there are a lot of suburbs in Milwaukee county, with a population of around 350k compared to about 650k in WOW. The Milwaukee county suburbs have shifted blue just as WOW has, and most of them were fairly blue to start with. Same general pattern in most metros with inner suburbs being blue and outer suburbs red.
A few notes about the Wisconsin Supreme Court election:
1) The large, heavily populated Waukesha County suburbs of Brookfield and Menomonee Falls continue to trend Democratic. Both used to be heavily Republican - Brookfield voted 64% for John McCain in 2008, and was 3-1 Republican in that infamous 2011 Supreme Court election where conservative David Prosser barely beat liberal JoAnn Kloppenburg. But both have gradually but steadily shifted left during the Trump era. Last year, Trump won Brookfield by 5 and Menomonee Falls by 7, and both voted for Dan Kelly in 2023 by 53-47 margins. This time, Schimel's margins in both Brookfield and Menomonee Falls were less than 2 percent. It's a reasonable assumption that the next time a Democrat wins Wisconsin by a 55-45 margin, they'll carry both Brookfield and Menomonee Falls. And in 10 years, Dems will probably be routinely winning both in most elections. What an insane shift that would be - to see all that blue in Waukesha County. (And Crawford replicated Protasiewicz's victory in the city of Waukesha - expanding the margin of victory from 0.6% to 2%.)
2) Several rural counties swung from Protasiewicz in 2023 to Schimel this year, including Lafayette, Grant, Jackson, Dunn, and Pierce. However, Crawford was able to pull out a victory in Racine County, just south of Milwaukee, despite the fact that none of the previous Democratic Supreme Court winners (Dallet, Karofsky, and Protasiewicz) won it. This important county flip came about largely due to increased minority turnout in the city of Racine - it swung from 66% Protasiewicz to 70% Crawford.
3) It is honestly quite encouraging that, despite rural areas continuing to trend Republican, the topline of the election result remained mostly unchanged.
Turnout overall was higher this go-around., which may explain some of the shifts from 2023.
Apparently Republicans turnout target was based on the number of votes they would have needed to beat Protasiewicz, which they met, but Crawford got almost 300,000 more votes, so they didn't come close to actually winning.
Instead of winning by 10.48% (Karofsky) or 11.04% (Protasiewicz), Elon Musk's money held Crawford to a mere 10.06% margin of victory.
If only he'd invested a few tens of millions more, he might have gotten the margin below double digits!
Make him spend it all! That might produce a tie.
This gives me flashbacks to 2017 VA races. GOP turnout was up, but Dem turnout was up much more.
The media (including the obnoxious Morning Joe panel) wanted Gillespie to win SOOOOO badly...
Brookfield was infamously decisive in the 2011 WI SC race. Their votes were unaccounted for and came late.
Doesn’t it usually work the other way in Wisconsin, where there is usually an after midnight drop of Milwaukee and Green Bay absentees that give the Democrat a boost?
Yes, but not that time. The Waukesha County Clerk was incompetent.
Yup. Kathy Nickolaus. Still haven't forgotten that name 14 years later.
Ah yes, the most-hated county clerk in the whole country (until Kim Davis came along!).
The last Democrat to win in Wisconsin 55% - 45% was Tammy Baldwin in 2018, check that map for comparison!! 💙🇺🇲
Baldwin's opponent, Leah Vukmir, was from the WOW counties, so that skewed the results there a bit. Vukmir won Brookfield by 19 and Menomonee Falls by 15. (Vukmir also won Mequon, in Ozaukee County by 11, while Crawford won it by 7 now.)
Plus, 2018 was right when the suburbs really started turning and the WOW ones started off much redder. When I went to Milwaukee and drove through Waukesha, I was expecting to see some suburbs. I was expecting a bigger city out of Milwaukee so doesn’t seem like they have the makings of blue suburbs due to a lack of major employers which creates the big box McMansion suburbs that have flipped blue.
People often forget that there are a lot of suburbs in Milwaukee county, with a population of around 350k compared to about 650k in WOW. The Milwaukee county suburbs have shifted blue just as WOW has, and most of them were fairly blue to start with. Same general pattern in most metros with inner suburbs being blue and outer suburbs red.
Yeah, aren't the WOW counties more exurban than suburban? The former types of areas tend to be a lot redder than the latter.