I agree with these assessments, but I am slightly bullish on Gray's chances, given where most of the outstanding votes are located and the general blue-ness of late counted votes in CA...
Either way you look at it, the election results are essentially a repeat of the 2022 election results so far as the numbers are concerned. Gray last time lost by 0.04% points so if he loses again, it may end up being by a similar, smaller or slightly higher amount than back in 2022.
I estimate that there are about 35K votes left to count in CA-13, which means that to win, Gray needs about 53% of what is left. It will be close but I'm betting on Gray.
House Update: Called Races NYT R218 D212 Leading Races R4 D1
Totals R 221 D213 1 vacancy
Most likely R 220 D 214 1 vacancy
#AK1 Begich leading by 9,434 Most Likely R
#CA13 Duarte leading by 2,004 Tossup?
#IA01 Meeks leading by 801 Most likely R
#CA45 Steele leads by 58 Likely D
#OH09 Kaptur leads by 1,193 Most likely D
I agree with these assessments, but I am slightly bullish on Gray's chances, given where most of the outstanding votes are located and the general blue-ness of late counted votes in CA...
Either way you look at it, the election results are essentially a repeat of the 2022 election results so far as the numbers are concerned. Gray last time lost by 0.04% points so if he loses again, it may end up being by a similar, smaller or slightly higher amount than back in 2022.
I estimate that there are about 35K votes left to count in CA-13, which means that to win, Gray needs about 53% of what is left. It will be close but I'm betting on Gray.