I think a 5.5 point shift in our favor would very likely have us picking up NC’s senate seat and would put ME as 50-50.
If we got both of those it would put us in a good-not-great position for gaining the senate in 2028 with Wisconsin and the other seat in North Carolina.
Losing Casey last year is a huge disadvantage for us.
I suspect that there is a belief that Iowa could be competitive because many of Trump's policies will have a bad economic impact on Iowa. His trade war has hurt Iowa's agriculture, which depends on exports. His cuts to foreign aid and to food stamps are hurting agricultural sectors. His immigration policies are hurting Iowa's farmers and hog farmers who rely on undocumented labor. Iowa is a big wind power state which will be hurt by Trump's attacks on renewable energy. This will cause the price of power to go up in Iowa for everyone. Furthermore, many Iowa farmers earned a second income by leasing land to wind power companies which is now threatened. Iowa made a huge leap to the left in the 80's due to Reagan's policies hurting farmers and there is a belief that this could happen again. I still can't wrap my head around how anyone in a farm state could have voted for Trump other than they thought that getting rid of the two transgender athletes in the state is more important than their own income.
I’m interested in Boston’s mayor’s race. I’ve been hearing Wu is quite popular (even the police union endorsed her), but her opponent is quite well funded. I suspect it won’t matter - is my suspicion correct, or misguided?
On a separate note, I know 2028 is quite a way’s away, but as far as Senate races go, has there been any chatter about anyone running? I have heard some chatter about WI candidates (per the last open thread), and I know people have been discussing Jeff Jackson for Ted Budd’s seat, but has anyone else been floated for anything this far out?
I only know of two polls, both with large undecideds but Wu is ahead by double digits in each of those. The most recent was in April.
Kraft is a rich guy with a famous father trying to money bomb the election. Money is the only real thing he has going for him, with no true ties to Boston to speak of other than a family association with the local football team. The cornerstone of his campaign, as best I can tell, is being loudly opposed to bike lanes. I'm not going to assume that bike lanes are wildly popular but I struggle to see the electoral coalition that rallies a majority around being opposed to them...
I'd be really, really shocked if Wu loses. At the same time, we're going into that election with little data so while I'd be shocked it is possible. Upsets are most likely at times where there's little data to work with.
Wu seems like one of the few big city mayors who isn’t utterly despised by their electorate so I’d imagine she’s likelier than not to win
It’s a contrast to, say, Bruce Harrell in Seattle who nobody really likes but also nobody quite hates, which in this neck of the woods is an improvement considering the previous four mayors lol. And the city has genuinely made a turn since he took over
I think she's largely disliked by (1) people who have lived in Boston for 60+ years and hate every kind of change, and (2) the North End business owners, who are on the more conservative side. I saw a sign for Kraft in one of the bakeries there last time I was around. I declined to give them my patronage (not that their bottom line will notice). There was a big kerfuffle from that owner class a year or two ago when they got upset at the city charging them more for having sidewalk dining, but they were being charged more than other parts of the city because they were causing a bigger mess that cost the city more to clean up.
It should not surprise anyone, then, to note that when Kraft bought a house in Boston to establish residency that he picked the North End.
Rich 2nd or 3rd generation Italian-American business owners is not a particularly large coalition, and money is the one thing Kraft doesn't need for his campaign.
I suspect Wu also got a nice boost from earlier this year when republicans brought in a bunch of democratic mayors to do a hearing on immigration. She came out of that looking great and I can only assume she got some great local media from it. Most voters won't remember the specifics but enough positive coverage can leave a lasting impression.
I think Jeff Jackson is probably going to run for re-election for atty general in 2028. But if Cooper runs and wins, not to mention overperform next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jackson changes his mind and challenges Budd.
Arizona State Superintendent of Public Instruction: Term-limited State Treasurer Kimberly Yee is challenging the incumbent, Tom "the Crypt Keeper" Horne, in the GOP primary. Apparently, Horne is enforcing some modest limits on how homeschooling families can spend state voucher funds (e.g., espresso machines are not an acceptable homeschooling expense), and Yee is running to remove those restrictions. https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2025/05/28/yee-challenge-horne-republican-primary-superintendent-of-public-instruction
Of course, I hope neither of these candidates wins the general election. It's disappointing (though not surprising) to see Yee—once considered a "reasonable" Republican—turning full MAGA.
I imagine your comment was a simple gut reaction, but here's a counterpoint.
By the time my daughter was 10ish, if she wanted to run ahead to the Lego section of Target while we were looking at something else, we didn't have a problem with that. By 5th grade, she could be at the public library on her own and check out books. By 13, she could ride her bike pretty much anywhere in our suburb this side of the 4-lane. She'd meet her friend who also had liberal, not-cowed-to-media-fear-mongering parents. We coached her a lot about stranger danger, but we also thought the independence you get from free range parenting was a valuable skill. She has turned out to be a independent, competent, socially functional 18 yr old. The kid whose friends call when they need a hand.
The stats on kidnapping and similar crimes show they are quite low. Lower than when I was a kid and even then weren't high. On the other hand, the stats on how much media coverage a single incident involving a child will get, compared to my youth, must be nearly infinitely higher. With cell phones and the development of our surveillance state, likelihood of tragedy is reduced more. Frankly, I think online is Far More dangerous than in public
If kids are respectful, there is no reason they cannot be in public by themselves, at times, durations, and locations that are age/maturity-level appropriate.
The idea that parents cannot leave kids alone, ever, in practice is partly what has led millenial/gen Z to have the stereotype of being entitled, dependent, lazy, etc. (Which, by the way, I rarely see in the students of those generations I've worked with--esp Gen Z.)
Related to the discussion above, if one thinks it's good for kids to vote at 16, then they need some independence and autonomy before that. Still, knowing my daughter and her friends and classmates, I'm for keeping the voting age at 18, though I do like TechnoOOs approach, above.
I’m in favor of doing the same here. I think it could potentially be a good tool to teach civic participation to young people.
It goes hand in hand with my support for robust civics education in schools in general. It’s depressing that some Americans don’t know their own governmental representatives.
If we're going to lower the voting age, I'd go down to 14 so that most high school freshmen could vote, but I don't really favor having different minimum ages for everything. If you can't trust someone to drink, why would you trust them to vote?
Drinking age of 21 is absurd and encourages widespread criminality. If had to pick an age for everything I'd choose 16: Drink. Drive. Legal Consent. Vote. Etc. That's actually where Britain is going as those other things are already 16. School is also no longer compulsory at 16.
Britain is not the U.S. We can't always assert just because something works in another country will it automatically apply to the U.S. The UK also doesn't have the corporate influence in advertising like the U.S. does and prevents alcohol advertisements that can potentially target those below the age of 18. In the U.S., rules to my understanding are less strict than what's in the UK.
Problem is, if you lower the drinking age in the U.S., generally speaking in this environment it can potentially lower the age threshold by which criminality can occur. This means increasingly more high school and junior high students could potentially be under the influence of alcohol because they can't wait to do so until they hit the minimum age of 18. If anyone turns 18 and drinks during high school, they could still share drinks to their friends in class who haven't turned 18 yet but could towards the end of the year after high school graduation.
I believe certain state laws allow exceptions to those under the age of 21 to drink for religious reasons or parental consent at say a dinner party. If you were to lower the minimum drinking age to 18, then you'd need to create enough exceptions that allow drinking in certain circumstances where there's no risk of more DUIs.
Besides, lowering the age of drinking from 21 may not be needed anyway as there are more trends these days where centennials and younger generations are getting into non-alcoholic bars and lounges. Plenty of them in the Bay Area, at least in Oakland and San Francisco.
I think 18 is a good age of majority, since it covers most college students. What that means is that you shouldn't be able to get a full gun or driver's license if you're younger. I would give everyone younger than 18 who qualifies a probationary driver's license that can be suspended more easily than an adult driver's license, and allow provisionally gun-licensed young people to hunt and target shoot only with adult supervision and would forbid them from joining the military.
People aged 16-18 usually vote for left of center parties so Labour might have calculated that it would benefit them. But these youngsters also hate the "establishment" and "mass migration" especially when things are going south (as it is in Britain), aka they are they same people who would vote for populist right parties when a center left party is in power.
I understand all that. What I don’t understand is the logic behind you calling it a "power grab". In my book, empowering people to vote is the very opposite of that.
"A Minnesota state senator was convicted of burglary Friday for breaking into her estranged stepmother’s home, and faced calls for her immediate resignation from a closely divided chamber where she holds a deciding vote."
"Democratic Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy was quick to issue a statement saying that Mitchell has told colleagues that she planned to resign if convicted, “and I expect her to follow through on that pledge.”"
Democrats hold only a one-seat majority in the Senate
Looks like a decently blue seat, at least, for when the special election comes around. She won 59-41 in 2022.
Also silver lining that while we won't hold a majority in the state senate while they work out how to expel her, we also don't hold a majority in the state house so it's not like this will hold back all that much legislation. Not great but it could be a lot worse. If this had happened between 2022 and 2024 elections it would have had far greater consequences.
And remember with the assassination of Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman last month, we are technically in the minority in the MN House (until the Sept 16th special election- the special primary is Aug. 12th if needed)
This is irresponsible dumbfuckery on so many levels – not least politically. That’s especially so since Mitchell has been the deciding vote for Democrats in a closely divided chamber. I wonder how long it will take to get her replacement in place?
This story hits close to home, in that my dad died a few years ago too and I was just over at my stepmom's last week when my sister was in town helping go through old photos and knicknacks, who wants to keep what, what do we throw out, that kind of stuff. I also have a key to her house and the security code for the system she put in after my dad died.
I have a very different post-Dad relationship with my stepmother than this senator.
Yeah, I as well as Politico thinks that James Talarico is gonna run for the Senate. I think he's wanted to run for Senate for a long time and it's not just Paxton, he's talked about how a blue Texas can change the filibuster, Citizens United, the Supreme Court and the electoral college even before he was famous (pre-2020) according to some clips I've seen of his.
Ted Cruz is not up for reelection until 2030. If a Democrat wins in 2028, he isn't going to have a chance. Allred is a proven overperformer (5 points) and Latinos split their ticket for him similar to what happened in Arizona. But if it's a choice between a typical great moderate candidate and a non-divisive generational progressive talent, I would back the latter. I would still like him to run for Lt. Gov or Gov to avoid a messy primary but let's see what he decides.
Trump winning by 13% points may have not been as much of a gut pitch if you think about it.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost TX to Trump by close to 9% points. Meanwhile, in the 2022 Texas Gubernatorial Race, Beto O’Rourke lost by a tad less than 11% points, only 2% points difference vs what Kamala Harris lost by. This while Biden in 2020 lost TX by less than 6% points.
If say Greg Abbott wins re-election by less than what he won re-election by in 2022, that’s still going to be progress.
And why did that happen? If you dig in the data, it was due to a total collapse of support among Latinos, Asians and younger voters, the same voters who are disillusioned with Trump right now. His approval comes around -10 in 2 or 3 Texas polls. They along with college educated whites used to be be our backbone in Texas. Every election since 2004 in Texas was closer than the previous one until 2020. It's extremely racially polarized Texas, if we win these groups back, we win the state.
This Sunday, there's going to be voting for upper house elections. While the Liberal Democratic Party has governed for a long time, there seems to be a Nigel Farage type politican running in an opposition party.
You guessed it, Sohei Kamiya, who has his party Sanseito, is completely anti-immigration and anti-many things in the populist right agenda he has.
He's also taking advantage of political situation where the cost of living in Japan, which is high and inflation has contributed a great deal to it.
Japan goes to the polls on Sunday to vote in its upper house elections. The country’s Liberal Democratic Party has governed almost continuously since the Second World War.
But, as with the rest of the world, populism is now shaking the country’s politics.
Sohei Kamiya, a youthful-looking, sharp-suited 47-year-old some are calling “the Japanese Nigel Farage”, has steered his start-up party Sanseito to third place in many opinion polls.
He is campaigning on an anti-immigrant, anti-woke and anti-net-zero platform. He is also promising generous giveaways for voters who are under pressure from a cost of living crisis.
“Increasingly there is potential to compare this with the UK’s Liz Truss moment,” says Masayuki Nakajima, a senior strategist at Mizuho Bank.
“I’d like to deny this completely but part of me sees it this way, because many politicians are advocating a populist agenda without credible funding sources.”
Voters are fuming at the cost of living, with inflation stuck at levels seldom seen since the 1980s. Kamiya’s answer: a more than 16tn Japanese yen (£80bn) plan to abolish consumption taxes.
I have a friend who lives in Japan and he’s told me that even groups of people you would think would be the source of left-wing politics like students are pretty tepid/afraid to rock the boat. I’m surprised that there’s any populism at all tbh.
Even amid that, Japan has certainly gone a long way since WWII ended. The country’s relationship with the U.S. since then has been for the most part very good to my understanding.
This may be me just not knowing enough about Japan and not having visited there but as much as the Japanese are complaining about inflation as reported in this article, I don’t see how the country will change that much in the end politically.
Japan has by contrast to other countries remarkably more civility. For starters, Japan has one of the lowest homicide rates in the world. Former PM Shinzo Abe was assassinated three years ago but two years after he left office. The assassination itself was unheard of and random when it was first reported.
Japan is indeed very civil (and clean) though that’s downwind of a culture that is confirmist and small c conservative in a way visitors don’t really experience or see
I think visitors experience and see it somewhat. You can't visit Japan without experiencing the bowing and the excessive wrapping of items to go, for example.
Yeah, if anybody is to personally benefit from redistricting, it would be Suozzi. The idea that his position is purely out of "self preservation" is pretty silly.
Newsom seems to be making up for his utter tomfoolery during the pandemic by passing some pretty good bills like the CEQA repeal and now by trying everything to stop the steal.
While Tom Suozzi prefers what "seems like the normal thing", i.e. after the census, these are hardly normal times. And our exceptional times, with democracy in crisis, call for exceptional measures – whether or not Suozzi understands that.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his political team have begun privately shaping a legally risky — and likely expensive — strategy to redraw House maps in several Democratic-controlled states, according to Democrats briefed on the effort. They are exploring their plans in California, New York, New Jersey, Minnesota and Washington state in hopes of flipping at least a handful of Republican seats next November.
The subsamples in these polls tend to be shaky but this one has him at 28/72 among 18-29 year olds and 32/68 among Hispanics. More evidence that the groups that swung toward Trump from 2020 to 2024 have already swung away from him.
It was a joke. Still Cuomo shouldn't even joke about this. He has already weak ties to the city and gives off the impression he doesn't really like NYC.
Northeast has been atrociously bad about building more housing for generations. The demand to live up here is completely mismatched with the supply of places to live. There's been some efforts to improve this but they're middling at best and often get stuck in court as rich old people sue to avoid changing the "neighborhood character." The south has been a lot better about that. Not sure about the other regions.
The data I've seen shows that it's much less than everywhere else in the country per capita, especially so in the most populous states in the northeast.
Even if you were completely right, the point doesn't change: we're not building enough to meet demand. Take a hypothetical scenario with 1000 housing units and demand for 2000 housing units. If 200 additional units are built, that helps, but is wholly and woefully insufficient to meet that demand.
Our part of the country needs to build way, way more housing.
I know that it is popular on here to believe that housing is pretty simply an issue of supply. it really isn't. There are many factors that impact the cost of housing, and building supply absolutely induces demand. New construction sells at a large premium over existing housing, and helps to drive prices up. I feel like home builders have done a number on the discourse around housing. I've sat in meetings with actual homebuilders who are being honest "the neighbors will thank us for raising their housing prices". We're probably going to have a a general recession and a housing recession. It's the best way of actually reducing housing costs
Because the northeast usually trails the rest of the country in housing trends. It is more stable in general than the rest of the country. Much of the rest of the country is heading into a buyers' market and possibly a housing recession. The northeast will likely catch up. This was largely inevitable
Update for anyone interested: I live in south Orange County. Condo community; not age restricted but 90% over 65. A 2200 sq ft 180 degree ocean view condo, 45 years old, some upgrades, on the market this week for $1,925,000....SOLD!
A shift of 16 seats. I don't think that would have a chance of putting the Senate in play.
I think a 5.5 point shift in our favor would very likely have us picking up NC’s senate seat and would put ME as 50-50.
If we got both of those it would put us in a good-not-great position for gaining the senate in 2028 with Wisconsin and the other seat in North Carolina.
Losing Casey last year is a huge disadvantage for us.
Can you elaborate on your calculations regarding NE? The election results in 2024 were that close?
Interesting.
Thoughts on Iowa? Still too red? With or without Ernst?
I suspect that there is a belief that Iowa could be competitive because many of Trump's policies will have a bad economic impact on Iowa. His trade war has hurt Iowa's agriculture, which depends on exports. His cuts to foreign aid and to food stamps are hurting agricultural sectors. His immigration policies are hurting Iowa's farmers and hog farmers who rely on undocumented labor. Iowa is a big wind power state which will be hurt by Trump's attacks on renewable energy. This will cause the price of power to go up in Iowa for everyone. Furthermore, many Iowa farmers earned a second income by leasing land to wind power companies which is now threatened. Iowa made a huge leap to the left in the 80's due to Reagan's policies hurting farmers and there is a belief that this could happen again. I still can't wrap my head around how anyone in a farm state could have voted for Trump other than they thought that getting rid of the two transgender athletes in the state is more important than their own income.
Right now, probably not but it’s still early and I expect the list of seats we can grab to grow and to the number we would need to flip the Senate.
I hope you're right.
I don’t think one has anything to do with the other. Really apples and oranges.
The general Congressional ballot is a mark of overall voter sentiment.
I’m interested in Boston’s mayor’s race. I’ve been hearing Wu is quite popular (even the police union endorsed her), but her opponent is quite well funded. I suspect it won’t matter - is my suspicion correct, or misguided?
On a separate note, I know 2028 is quite a way’s away, but as far as Senate races go, has there been any chatter about anyone running? I have heard some chatter about WI candidates (per the last open thread), and I know people have been discussing Jeff Jackson for Ted Budd’s seat, but has anyone else been floated for anything this far out?
I only know of two polls, both with large undecideds but Wu is ahead by double digits in each of those. The most recent was in April.
Kraft is a rich guy with a famous father trying to money bomb the election. Money is the only real thing he has going for him, with no true ties to Boston to speak of other than a family association with the local football team. The cornerstone of his campaign, as best I can tell, is being loudly opposed to bike lanes. I'm not going to assume that bike lanes are wildly popular but I struggle to see the electoral coalition that rallies a majority around being opposed to them...
I'd be really, really shocked if Wu loses. At the same time, we're going into that election with little data so while I'd be shocked it is possible. Upsets are most likely at times where there's little data to work with.
Wu seems like one of the few big city mayors who isn’t utterly despised by their electorate so I’d imagine she’s likelier than not to win
It’s a contrast to, say, Bruce Harrell in Seattle who nobody really likes but also nobody quite hates, which in this neck of the woods is an improvement considering the previous four mayors lol. And the city has genuinely made a turn since he took over
I think she's largely disliked by (1) people who have lived in Boston for 60+ years and hate every kind of change, and (2) the North End business owners, who are on the more conservative side. I saw a sign for Kraft in one of the bakeries there last time I was around. I declined to give them my patronage (not that their bottom line will notice). There was a big kerfuffle from that owner class a year or two ago when they got upset at the city charging them more for having sidewalk dining, but they were being charged more than other parts of the city because they were causing a bigger mess that cost the city more to clean up.
It should not surprise anyone, then, to note that when Kraft bought a house in Boston to establish residency that he picked the North End.
Rich 2nd or 3rd generation Italian-American business owners is not a particularly large coalition, and money is the one thing Kraft doesn't need for his campaign.
I suspect Wu also got a nice boost from earlier this year when republicans brought in a bunch of democratic mayors to do a hearing on immigration. She came out of that looking great and I can only assume she got some great local media from it. Most voters won't remember the specifics but enough positive coverage can leave a lasting impression.
Seems like another good reason to root against the Patriots this year--si that people frustrated with losing take it out on the owner's son (Kraft)
I think Jeff Jackson is probably going to run for re-election for atty general in 2028. But if Cooper runs and wins, not to mention overperform next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jackson changes his mind and challenges Budd.
Arizona State Superintendent of Public Instruction: Term-limited State Treasurer Kimberly Yee is challenging the incumbent, Tom "the Crypt Keeper" Horne, in the GOP primary. Apparently, Horne is enforcing some modest limits on how homeschooling families can spend state voucher funds (e.g., espresso machines are not an acceptable homeschooling expense), and Yee is running to remove those restrictions. https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2025/05/28/yee-challenge-horne-republican-primary-superintendent-of-public-instruction
Of course, I hope neither of these candidates wins the general election. It's disappointing (though not surprising) to see Yee—once considered a "reasonable" Republican—turning full MAGA.
On a totally unrelated note, here’s a sign seen in a café where the management got fed up by parents leaving their kids while they ran errands:
"Unattended children will be given a free puppy and a double espresso."
Maybe this is just because I grew up in the "stranger danger" era, but who in their right mind leaves a kid unattended in a public space?
Guess my grandmother was right when she said "It takes no brains to breed."
She was right. But which era was -not- a stranger danger era?
I imagine your comment was a simple gut reaction, but here's a counterpoint.
By the time my daughter was 10ish, if she wanted to run ahead to the Lego section of Target while we were looking at something else, we didn't have a problem with that. By 5th grade, she could be at the public library on her own and check out books. By 13, she could ride her bike pretty much anywhere in our suburb this side of the 4-lane. She'd meet her friend who also had liberal, not-cowed-to-media-fear-mongering parents. We coached her a lot about stranger danger, but we also thought the independence you get from free range parenting was a valuable skill. She has turned out to be a independent, competent, socially functional 18 yr old. The kid whose friends call when they need a hand.
The stats on kidnapping and similar crimes show they are quite low. Lower than when I was a kid and even then weren't high. On the other hand, the stats on how much media coverage a single incident involving a child will get, compared to my youth, must be nearly infinitely higher. With cell phones and the development of our surveillance state, likelihood of tragedy is reduced more. Frankly, I think online is Far More dangerous than in public
If kids are respectful, there is no reason they cannot be in public by themselves, at times, durations, and locations that are age/maturity-level appropriate.
The idea that parents cannot leave kids alone, ever, in practice is partly what has led millenial/gen Z to have the stereotype of being entitled, dependent, lazy, etc. (Which, by the way, I rarely see in the students of those generations I've worked with--esp Gen Z.)
Related to the discussion above, if one thinks it's good for kids to vote at 16, then they need some independence and autonomy before that. Still, knowing my daughter and her friends and classmates, I'm for keeping the voting age at 18, though I do like TechnoOOs approach, above.
The United Kingdom lowers its voting age to 16.
https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/uk-lower-voting-age-what-about-united-states/
I’m in favor of doing the same here. I think it could potentially be a good tool to teach civic participation to young people.
It goes hand in hand with my support for robust civics education in schools in general. It’s depressing that some Americans don’t know their own governmental representatives.
If we're going to lower the voting age, I'd go down to 14 so that most high school freshmen could vote, but I don't really favor having different minimum ages for everything. If you can't trust someone to drink, why would you trust them to vote?
Drinking age of 21 is absurd and encourages widespread criminality. If had to pick an age for everything I'd choose 16: Drink. Drive. Legal Consent. Vote. Etc. That's actually where Britain is going as those other things are already 16. School is also no longer compulsory at 16.
Britain is not the U.S. We can't always assert just because something works in another country will it automatically apply to the U.S. The UK also doesn't have the corporate influence in advertising like the U.S. does and prevents alcohol advertisements that can potentially target those below the age of 18. In the U.S., rules to my understanding are less strict than what's in the UK.
Problem is, if you lower the drinking age in the U.S., generally speaking in this environment it can potentially lower the age threshold by which criminality can occur. This means increasingly more high school and junior high students could potentially be under the influence of alcohol because they can't wait to do so until they hit the minimum age of 18. If anyone turns 18 and drinks during high school, they could still share drinks to their friends in class who haven't turned 18 yet but could towards the end of the year after high school graduation.
I believe certain state laws allow exceptions to those under the age of 21 to drink for religious reasons or parental consent at say a dinner party. If you were to lower the minimum drinking age to 18, then you'd need to create enough exceptions that allow drinking in certain circumstances where there's no risk of more DUIs.
Besides, lowering the age of drinking from 21 may not be needed anyway as there are more trends these days where centennials and younger generations are getting into non-alcoholic bars and lounges. Plenty of them in the Bay Area, at least in Oakland and San Francisco.
I think 18 is a good age of majority, since it covers most college students. What that means is that you shouldn't be able to get a full gun or driver's license if you're younger. I would give everyone younger than 18 who qualifies a probationary driver's license that can be suspended more easily than an adult driver's license, and allow provisionally gun-licensed young people to hunt and target shoot only with adult supervision and would forbid them from joining the military.
Nigel Farage just won the next election. This Labour power grab will backfire.
Please explain your reasoning. How is granting young people the right to vote a "power grab"?
People aged 16-18 usually vote for left of center parties so Labour might have calculated that it would benefit them. But these youngsters also hate the "establishment" and "mass migration" especially when things are going south (as it is in Britain), aka they are they same people who would vote for populist right parties when a center left party is in power.
I understand all that. What I don’t understand is the logic behind you calling it a "power grab". In my book, empowering people to vote is the very opposite of that.
But they will have a true left party to vote for, whether it be the Greens or the new party Corbyn is involved forming, or the two merged.
Minnesota lawmaker convicted of felony burglary for breaking into estranged stepmother’s home
https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-state-senator-nicole-mitchell-guilty-burglary-696586410ee64866c7711ea0910b836e
"A Minnesota state senator was convicted of burglary Friday for breaking into her estranged stepmother’s home, and faced calls for her immediate resignation from a closely divided chamber where she holds a deciding vote."
"Democratic Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy was quick to issue a statement saying that Mitchell has told colleagues that she planned to resign if convicted, “and I expect her to follow through on that pledge.”"
Democrats hold only a one-seat majority in the Senate
WTF? Stupefying.
I hope she's expelled promptly.
Looks like a decently blue seat, at least, for when the special election comes around. She won 59-41 in 2022.
Also silver lining that while we won't hold a majority in the state senate while they work out how to expel her, we also don't hold a majority in the state house so it's not like this will hold back all that much legislation. Not great but it could be a lot worse. If this had happened between 2022 and 2024 elections it would have had far greater consequences.
And remember with the assassination of Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman last month, we are technically in the minority in the MN House (until the Sept 16th special election- the special primary is Aug. 12th if needed)
67 Repub, 66 DFL, 1 vacant
What an incredibly rough patch of time.
This is irresponsible dumbfuckery on so many levels – not least politically. That’s especially so since Mitchell has been the deciding vote for Democrats in a closely divided chamber. I wonder how long it will take to get her replacement in place?
This story hits close to home, in that my dad died a few years ago too and I was just over at my stepmom's last week when my sister was in town helping go through old photos and knicknacks, who wants to keep what, what do we throw out, that kind of stuff. I also have a key to her house and the security code for the system she put in after my dad died.
I have a very different post-Dad relationship with my stepmother than this senator.
Joe Rogan’s Latest Guest Might Turn Texas Blue
State Rep. James Talarico opens up about what it’s like to go on the most coveted podcast in politics, his potential run for Senate and how his party needs to change. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/07/19/james-talarico-texas-democrat-joe-rogan-interview-00441989
Yeah, I as well as Politico thinks that James Talarico is gonna run for the Senate. I think he's wanted to run for Senate for a long time and it's not just Paxton, he's talked about how a blue Texas can change the filibuster, Citizens United, the Supreme Court and the electoral college even before he was famous (pre-2020) according to some clips I've seen of his.
If it’s just those two, there wouldn’t be runoff. Allred already had a chance. Give Talarico a shot.
Ted Cruz is not up for reelection until 2030. If a Democrat wins in 2028, he isn't going to have a chance. Allred is a proven overperformer (5 points) and Latinos split their ticket for him similar to what happened in Arizona. But if it's a choice between a typical great moderate candidate and a non-divisive generational progressive talent, I would back the latter. I would still like him to run for Lt. Gov or Gov to avoid a messy primary but let's see what he decides.
He’s a true talent. I hope he takes the leap
Why not run for something bigger ?
I hope he runs as well but he’ll have to get by Allred in the primary.
So who could run for Governor now? Joaquin Castro, if he doesn’t run for Senate? I believe Nathan Johnson is going for AG.
At any rate, Talarico is a stellar candidate and I wish him well. I think he might have an actual chance at flipping the Senate seat.
Trump winning by 13 last year was a real gut punch for turning Texas blue.
Trump winning by 13% points may have not been as much of a gut pitch if you think about it.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost TX to Trump by close to 9% points. Meanwhile, in the 2022 Texas Gubernatorial Race, Beto O’Rourke lost by a tad less than 11% points, only 2% points difference vs what Kamala Harris lost by. This while Biden in 2020 lost TX by less than 6% points.
If say Greg Abbott wins re-election by less than what he won re-election by in 2022, that’s still going to be progress.
And why did that happen? If you dig in the data, it was due to a total collapse of support among Latinos, Asians and younger voters, the same voters who are disillusioned with Trump right now. His approval comes around -10 in 2 or 3 Texas polls. They along with college educated whites used to be be our backbone in Texas. Every election since 2004 in Texas was closer than the previous one until 2020. It's extremely racially polarized Texas, if we win these groups back, we win the state.
Yes. If I’m not mistaken, economics and inflation are a particular reason why Latinos moved to Trump.
Yes and also culture war crap especially among latino men.
Yeah chances to turn Texas blue rest on first rebuilding with these groups.
As a followup to Jacob M.'s link to election results of the snap election in Tasmania, read this story: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-20/election-worst-labor-result-ever-but-still-a-chance-analysis/105550998
Japan Upper House Elections
This Sunday, there's going to be voting for upper house elections. While the Liberal Democratic Party has governed for a long time, there seems to be a Nigel Farage type politican running in an opposition party.
You guessed it, Sohei Kamiya, who has his party Sanseito, is completely anti-immigration and anti-many things in the populist right agenda he has.
He's also taking advantage of political situation where the cost of living in Japan, which is high and inflation has contributed a great deal to it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/18/will-japans-nigel-farage-break-economy-sohei-kamiya/
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Japan goes to the polls on Sunday to vote in its upper house elections. The country’s Liberal Democratic Party has governed almost continuously since the Second World War.
But, as with the rest of the world, populism is now shaking the country’s politics.
Sohei Kamiya, a youthful-looking, sharp-suited 47-year-old some are calling “the Japanese Nigel Farage”, has steered his start-up party Sanseito to third place in many opinion polls.
He is campaigning on an anti-immigrant, anti-woke and anti-net-zero platform. He is also promising generous giveaways for voters who are under pressure from a cost of living crisis.
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“Increasingly there is potential to compare this with the UK’s Liz Truss moment,” says Masayuki Nakajima, a senior strategist at Mizuho Bank.
“I’d like to deny this completely but part of me sees it this way, because many politicians are advocating a populist agenda without credible funding sources.”
Voters are fuming at the cost of living, with inflation stuck at levels seldom seen since the 1980s. Kamiya’s answer: a more than 16tn Japanese yen (£80bn) plan to abolish consumption taxes.
Is there any populism on the Japanese left?
I have a friend who lives in Japan and he’s told me that even groups of people you would think would be the source of left-wing politics like students are pretty tepid/afraid to rock the boat. I’m surprised that there’s any populism at all tbh.
There's a long history of opposition left-wing parties in Japan, especially the Communists.
Even amid that, Japan has certainly gone a long way since WWII ended. The country’s relationship with the U.S. since then has been for the most part very good to my understanding.
Reiwa Shinsengumi? I've heard they are a populist left party in Japan (led by a former actor named Taro Yamamoto), but I don't know much about them.
Here is an article on that that you may find of interest.
"Is There Left Populism in Japan? The Case of Reiwa Shinsengumi"
https://apjjf.org/2020/10/Klein
Thanks, good paper.
I like how the Japanese are complaining about inflation when for thirty years their problem was not enough inflation
This may be me just not knowing enough about Japan and not having visited there but as much as the Japanese are complaining about inflation as reported in this article, I don’t see how the country will change that much in the end politically.
Japan has by contrast to other countries remarkably more civility. For starters, Japan has one of the lowest homicide rates in the world. Former PM Shinzo Abe was assassinated three years ago but two years after he left office. The assassination itself was unheard of and random when it was first reported.
Japan is indeed very civil (and clean) though that’s downwind of a culture that is confirmist and small c conservative in a way visitors don’t really experience or see
I think visitors experience and see it somewhat. You can't visit Japan without experiencing the bowing and the excessive wrapping of items to go, for example.
At least in the USA, wages kept up with inflation. Japan right now gets inflation while wages are lagging behind.
New York Rep. Tom Suozzi, a Democrat whose district includes parts of Long Island, said changing the maps now is “probably not” a good idea.
“Traditionally people do this every 10 years after the census, so that seems like the normal thing to me,” Suozzi said.
This guy cares about nothing but self preservation. He was the same guy who was preaching collaboration and compromise with Trump and DOGE..
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/20/politics/redistricting-2026-house-democrats
Yeah, if anybody is to personally benefit from redistricting, it would be Suozzi. The idea that his position is purely out of "self preservation" is pretty silly.
Not clear if he’s speaking in general or just New York. But he’s always good for an undermining quote.
Not sure if they can legally redo New Jersey’s map. The best they could gain would be Kean’s seat without creating a dummymander.
California is pretty much the only sliver of hope
Newsom seems to be making up for his utter tomfoolery during the pandemic by passing some pretty good bills like the CEQA repeal and now by trying everything to stop the steal.
NJ could draw Van Drew’s seat to become competitive.
While Tom Suozzi prefers what "seems like the normal thing", i.e. after the census, these are hardly normal times. And our exceptional times, with democracy in crisis, call for exceptional measures – whether or not Suozzi understands that.
Obviously not, he's an arrogant old school centrist. Really appreciate Jeffries leading the charge.
I'm assuming that's sarcastic. I haven't heard or seen any remarks from Jeffries about new redistricting in New York.
From the article:
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his political team have begun privately shaping a legally risky — and likely expensive — strategy to redraw House maps in several Democratic-controlled states, according to Democrats briefed on the effort. They are exploring their plans in California, New York, New Jersey, Minnesota and Washington state in hopes of flipping at least a handful of Republican seats next November.
CBS: Trump job approval 42/58
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-trump-deportation-program-prices/
The subsamples in these polls tend to be shaky but this one has him at 28/72 among 18-29 year olds and 32/68 among Hispanics. More evidence that the groups that swung toward Trump from 2020 to 2024 have already swung away from him.
Elastic voters are elastic
https://nypost.com/2025/07/19/us-news/cuomo-i-will-move-to-florida-god-forbid-if-mamdani-become-nyc-mayor/
Cuomo will move to Florida if Mamdani wins
Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out Andy.
That sounds like a dumb joke he made.
The report on WINS said that he said it was a joke.
Promise?
It was a joke. Still Cuomo shouldn't even joke about this. He has already weak ties to the city and gives off the impression he doesn't really like NYC.
Really wild how there are two housing markets now.
If you live in the northeast or Midwest, prices are rising, everywhere around you.
If you live in the south or west, prices are falling, everywhere around you.
And if you live in Florida, the bottom’s falling out.
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1946983726828691784
Why could this be happening? It's falling even in California and Oregon. while rising in Kentucky, Indiana and West Virginia!
Northeast has been atrociously bad about building more housing for generations. The demand to live up here is completely mismatched with the supply of places to live. There's been some efforts to improve this but they're middling at best and often get stuck in court as rich old people sue to avoid changing the "neighborhood character." The south has been a lot better about that. Not sure about the other regions.
There has been massive building in the northeast for years.
The data I've seen shows that it's much less than everywhere else in the country per capita, especially so in the most populous states in the northeast.
Even if you were completely right, the point doesn't change: we're not building enough to meet demand. Take a hypothetical scenario with 1000 housing units and demand for 2000 housing units. If 200 additional units are built, that helps, but is wholly and woefully insufficient to meet that demand.
Our part of the country needs to build way, way more housing.
I know that it is popular on here to believe that housing is pretty simply an issue of supply. it really isn't. There are many factors that impact the cost of housing, and building supply absolutely induces demand. New construction sells at a large premium over existing housing, and helps to drive prices up. I feel like home builders have done a number on the discourse around housing. I've sat in meetings with actual homebuilders who are being honest "the neighbors will thank us for raising their housing prices". We're probably going to have a a general recession and a housing recession. It's the best way of actually reducing housing costs
This is the first I've heard about housing prices declining in California!
Because the northeast usually trails the rest of the country in housing trends. It is more stable in general than the rest of the country. Much of the rest of the country is heading into a buyers' market and possibly a housing recession. The northeast will likely catch up. This was largely inevitable
Huh? Isn't a sellers market when prices are going up?
Sorry, meant buyers' market.
Florida’s insurance problems are compounding Hurricane by hurricane.
It’ll be really interesting to see what happens there by 2030, to say nothing of 2040 and beyond
prices are not falling in south OC in California
Update for anyone interested: I live in south Orange County. Condo community; not age restricted but 90% over 65. A 2200 sq ft 180 degree ocean view condo, 45 years old, some upgrades, on the market this week for $1,925,000....SOLD!