I think the pool of available split ticket voters in AZ is bigger than generally understood, and I do think Lake will underperform Trump and Trump will underperform generic GOP legislator. I'm hopeful we'll see 2022 ticket splitters consolidate more for us downballot, rather than simply increasing the number of ticket splitters who vote …
I think the pool of available split ticket voters in AZ is bigger than generally understood, and I do think Lake will underperform Trump and Trump will underperform generic GOP legislator. I'm hopeful we'll see 2022 ticket splitters consolidate more for us downballot, rather than simply increasing the number of ticket splitters who vote for both Harris and Gallego but GOP downballot. At this point Lake is damaged goods and I expect her to do relatively worse than in 2022 (thank the GOP primary voters for saving the AZ Dem Party from kicking away a U.S. Senate seat). I also expect 2024 to be bluer than 2022 in AZ simply due to demographic trend, and improved turnout due to being a presidential year.
I think the pool of available split ticket voters in AZ is bigger than generally understood, and I do think Lake will underperform Trump and Trump will underperform generic GOP legislator. I'm hopeful we'll see 2022 ticket splitters consolidate more for us downballot, rather than simply increasing the number of ticket splitters who vote for both Harris and Gallego but GOP downballot. At this point Lake is damaged goods and I expect her to do relatively worse than in 2022 (thank the GOP primary voters for saving the AZ Dem Party from kicking away a U.S. Senate seat). I also expect 2024 to be bluer than 2022 in AZ simply due to demographic trend, and improved turnout due to being a presidential year.