So that “someone” who claimed it was the 5th most important issue was me, and I provided polling to back up that assertion in response to your claim that a plurality of voters considered it the key issue. I’m still waiting for you to provide a link to the poll where that result was obtained.
So that “someone” who claimed it was the 5th most important issue was me, and I provided polling to back up that assertion in response to your claim that a plurality of voters considered it the key issue. I’m still waiting for you to provide a link to the poll where that result was obtained.
What the evidence seems to show, is that Republicans care far more about immigration than anyone else does. It consistently ranks as the #2 issue for Republicans. Could it rank higher for potential voters in some swing states (AZ, NV) and TX where the Senate seat seems to be in play? Sure, and if you have any polling on that (or again, any polling that supports your position at all) I’d be happy to see it and take it into consideration. I’m starting to think you don’t actually have any though.
None have come up in a cursory scan of polls. Most polls seem to be asking "is this issue important to you?" and then ticking off a bunch of issues with responses to "very important" to "not very important". Not many polls are outright asking voters what their #1 issue is. The exit polls will and I'll stand by my prediction from late last year that "immigration and the border" will top the list. I could be wrong and either the economy or reproductive rights rank higher, but I can predict with high confidence that immigration and the border will rank higher than 11% on voters' top issues.
Considering most elections in Europe in the last few years has turned on immigration, it's pretty tone-deaf to think the laws of gravity won't apply here, especially now that the unwritten "I won't talk about immigration if you won't" truce ended among Presidential nominees after the Obama years. The yawning class divide over this issue makes it easy for the college boys in the media and in election analysis community to fail to notice how salient the issue is outside their upscale suburban cul-de-sacs. We'll know in a little over a month who was right I guess.
If you're right that that's the #1 issue, it's not going to be by people who want fewer hassles at the border, and Trump will win by a considerable margin. I think it's extremely unlikely to be the #1 issue.
There are literally two polls in my comment above that ask “what is the most important issue to you” so they’re not that hard to find. No idea on how good the pollsters are but they’re out there. I think the polls that ask about relative importance would actually support your theory better since it would allow someone to say both the economy and immigration are important to them.
Regarding Europe, I’m not sure it’s an apples to apples comparison. You’ve got the Scandis, where yes, from what I’ve read immigration is a big issue. But those are very white countries. I would expect the fear of people of color to be greater than that in heterogeneous societies. And LePen keeps getting closer and closer in France. But, well, France… Additionally, the aftereffects of colonization are much more recent there, so the dynamic is probably different. Issue polls for the EU are even harder to find than for the US though, so if you have any links to them would be happy to review them.
I am going to agree with you on one thing though, and this goes against my assumptions, but immigration probably will rank higher than health care / abortion in the exit polls. I do think though, that how many people base their vote on each issue is still up for debate.
Look mate, I’m really not trying to be a dick here. But one of the main reasons I started posting on DKE was because people were just throwing out random opinions and stating them as fact. While I disagree with it, I have no problem with your theory that immigration is the key issue, it’s a legitimate hypothesis. The reason I keep pushing back is because you have constantly claimed that you have facts to back your opinion up but those facts have never materialized. I try to be very clear in what I conclude from evidence vs what is my gut instinct, if you did the same I wouldn’t be nearly so argumentative.
And to clarify, there were actually polls showing immigration as the #1 issue, but they were from before the Democratic nominee swap and thus obsolete.
Thanks for that. If you dig into the actual poll responses https://news.gallup.com/file/poll/611138/240226MIPEcon.pdf economic issues still top Immigration 30-28. It’s just that only 12% of folks said Economy in General while the other 18% cited something more specific. When you break it down by party, the percentage responses for Economic Issues, Economy In General, Immigration are:
Rep: 29-11-57
Ind: 34-13-22
Dem: 27-12-10
So as with all the other polls I’ve seen, it’s largely something Republicans care about. Less than 1 in 4 Independents cite it as their primary concern. As mentioned above, I’m surprised to see health care / abortion listed so low.
It seems Gallup used some selective data points in order to claim that Immigration is the #1 issue.
Since it’s a monthly poll we have more recent data to look at as well, https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx. From Feb to Sep, the economy in general has gone from 12% to 24%, economic issues as a whole from 30 to 44% and Immigration from 28 to 22%.
My theory, which the data seems to support, is that except for the hardcore Republicans, most people don’t care that much about immigration, except when they’re told to. Was there anything going on in February 2024 which may have caused increase interest in immigration? I had to look up the timing of it but yup, that’s when the Immigration Bill was in the news. If you look at the trend lines in the first link the number of people who named immigration as their #1 issue tripled between Aug 2023 and Feb 2024. I suspect there was a corresponding increase in news coverage about it as well.
Similarly, since the breakdown of the Immigration bill, there has been a mostly steady decrease, with a recent uptick in September, which I would guess is due to the latest racist crap being pushed by the Republican Party.
Which leads me to my final conclusion as to why immigration is not going to be the deciding factor of this election: the lack of news about the caravan. I actually expected to be inundated with news about it by now, yet there has been next to nothing. If it really was that much of a weakness for Harris, Trump’s allies would be ratcheting up the hysteria about it, and probably causing additional instability in Latin America to make it happen.
There's no question that Biden's executive order from earlier in the year that finally diffused the bottleneck at the border has helped take the issue out of the headlines. I suspect the cake is baked with a large number of voters but stemming the relentless tide of the previous three years has taken momentum away from the issue. The situation no longer seems as urgent. Had the border crossing numbers from February persisted, I contend that my prediction of the time that it would be the top issue would have unequivocally materialized. Now I'm hedging a bit that it will be #1, but will ultimately stand by the prediction because I think in working-class circles, it's still #1.
As for caravans, once Maduro failed to stand down after the Venezuela election, I suspected another caravan would take form and cause headaches just in time for the election. I haven't heard about that materializing but won't rest easy about it until another month has passed.
Kind of a chicken versus egg argument there. Did people whose top issue is immigration become Trump voters? Or is immigration their top issue because they're Trump voters?
I think there's a strong case that in 2016, it was the former, and the tea leaves give some indication the issue is transcending racial lines. Kornacki was breaking down a new poll exclusive to Latino voters on "Meet the Press" this morning that was full of warning signs.
There have always been people who wanted to close the door after they got in, but most of the xenophobia that's driving votes for Trump isn't from non-white people.
Let's not lose the main point: if a segment that's mostly Trump supporters is against immigration and immigrants, that doesn't indicate a danger for Democrats in the election, but rather, who supports Trump.
So that “someone” who claimed it was the 5th most important issue was me, and I provided polling to back up that assertion in response to your claim that a plurality of voters considered it the key issue. I’m still waiting for you to provide a link to the poll where that result was obtained.
In the meantime he’s a poll that shows it as the #2 issue. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1362236/most-important-voter-issues-us/ But don’t get too excited because that’s with only 11% of people naming it as the their key issue. Here’s another one https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/poll-finding/kff-health-tracking-poll-september-2024-harris-v-trump-on-key-health-care-issues/ where immigration is #3, but again with only 12% identifying it as the primary issue.
What the evidence seems to show, is that Republicans care far more about immigration than anyone else does. It consistently ranks as the #2 issue for Republicans. Could it rank higher for potential voters in some swing states (AZ, NV) and TX where the Senate seat seems to be in play? Sure, and if you have any polling on that (or again, any polling that supports your position at all) I’d be happy to see it and take it into consideration. I’m starting to think you don’t actually have any though.
None have come up in a cursory scan of polls. Most polls seem to be asking "is this issue important to you?" and then ticking off a bunch of issues with responses to "very important" to "not very important". Not many polls are outright asking voters what their #1 issue is. The exit polls will and I'll stand by my prediction from late last year that "immigration and the border" will top the list. I could be wrong and either the economy or reproductive rights rank higher, but I can predict with high confidence that immigration and the border will rank higher than 11% on voters' top issues.
Considering most elections in Europe in the last few years has turned on immigration, it's pretty tone-deaf to think the laws of gravity won't apply here, especially now that the unwritten "I won't talk about immigration if you won't" truce ended among Presidential nominees after the Obama years. The yawning class divide over this issue makes it easy for the college boys in the media and in election analysis community to fail to notice how salient the issue is outside their upscale suburban cul-de-sacs. We'll know in a little over a month who was right I guess.
If you're right that that's the #1 issue, it's not going to be by people who want fewer hassles at the border, and Trump will win by a considerable margin. I think it's extremely unlikely to be the #1 issue.
There are literally two polls in my comment above that ask “what is the most important issue to you” so they’re not that hard to find. No idea on how good the pollsters are but they’re out there. I think the polls that ask about relative importance would actually support your theory better since it would allow someone to say both the economy and immigration are important to them.
Regarding Europe, I’m not sure it’s an apples to apples comparison. You’ve got the Scandis, where yes, from what I’ve read immigration is a big issue. But those are very white countries. I would expect the fear of people of color to be greater than that in heterogeneous societies. And LePen keeps getting closer and closer in France. But, well, France… Additionally, the aftereffects of colonization are much more recent there, so the dynamic is probably different. Issue polls for the EU are even harder to find than for the US though, so if you have any links to them would be happy to review them.
I am going to agree with you on one thing though, and this goes against my assumptions, but immigration probably will rank higher than health care / abortion in the exit polls. I do think though, that how many people base their vote on each issue is still up for debate.
Look mate, I’m really not trying to be a dick here. But one of the main reasons I started posting on DKE was because people were just throwing out random opinions and stating them as fact. While I disagree with it, I have no problem with your theory that immigration is the key issue, it’s a legitimate hypothesis. The reason I keep pushing back is because you have constantly claimed that you have facts to back your opinion up but those facts have never materialized. I try to be very clear in what I conclude from evidence vs what is my gut instinct, if you did the same I wouldn’t be nearly so argumentative.
And to clarify, there were actually polls showing immigration as the #1 issue, but they were from before the Democratic nominee swap and thus obsolete.
Which polls? Because if we’ve seen immigration as an issue decrease in importance with the “Border Czar” as candidate that is extremely promising.
Here's one....
https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx
Thanks for that. If you dig into the actual poll responses https://news.gallup.com/file/poll/611138/240226MIPEcon.pdf economic issues still top Immigration 30-28. It’s just that only 12% of folks said Economy in General while the other 18% cited something more specific. When you break it down by party, the percentage responses for Economic Issues, Economy In General, Immigration are:
Rep: 29-11-57
Ind: 34-13-22
Dem: 27-12-10
So as with all the other polls I’ve seen, it’s largely something Republicans care about. Less than 1 in 4 Independents cite it as their primary concern. As mentioned above, I’m surprised to see health care / abortion listed so low.
It seems Gallup used some selective data points in order to claim that Immigration is the #1 issue.
Since it’s a monthly poll we have more recent data to look at as well, https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx. From Feb to Sep, the economy in general has gone from 12% to 24%, economic issues as a whole from 30 to 44% and Immigration from 28 to 22%.
My theory, which the data seems to support, is that except for the hardcore Republicans, most people don’t care that much about immigration, except when they’re told to. Was there anything going on in February 2024 which may have caused increase interest in immigration? I had to look up the timing of it but yup, that’s when the Immigration Bill was in the news. If you look at the trend lines in the first link the number of people who named immigration as their #1 issue tripled between Aug 2023 and Feb 2024. I suspect there was a corresponding increase in news coverage about it as well.
Similarly, since the breakdown of the Immigration bill, there has been a mostly steady decrease, with a recent uptick in September, which I would guess is due to the latest racist crap being pushed by the Republican Party.
Which leads me to my final conclusion as to why immigration is not going to be the deciding factor of this election: the lack of news about the caravan. I actually expected to be inundated with news about it by now, yet there has been next to nothing. If it really was that much of a weakness for Harris, Trump’s allies would be ratcheting up the hysteria about it, and probably causing additional instability in Latin America to make it happen.
There's no question that Biden's executive order from earlier in the year that finally diffused the bottleneck at the border has helped take the issue out of the headlines. I suspect the cake is baked with a large number of voters but stemming the relentless tide of the previous three years has taken momentum away from the issue. The situation no longer seems as urgent. Had the border crossing numbers from February persisted, I contend that my prediction of the time that it would be the top issue would have unequivocally materialized. Now I'm hedging a bit that it will be #1, but will ultimately stand by the prediction because I think in working-class circles, it's still #1.
As for caravans, once Maduro failed to stand down after the Venezuela election, I suspected another caravan would take form and cause headaches just in time for the election. I haven't heard about that materializing but won't rest easy about it until another month has passed.
" I think in working-class circles, it's still #1." Because they're mostly Trump supporters.
Kind of a chicken versus egg argument there. Did people whose top issue is immigration become Trump voters? Or is immigration their top issue because they're Trump voters?
I think there's a strong case that in 2016, it was the former, and the tea leaves give some indication the issue is transcending racial lines. Kornacki was breaking down a new poll exclusive to Latino voters on "Meet the Press" this morning that was full of warning signs.
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/poll-democrats-advantage-with-latino-voters-continues-to-shrink-steve-kornacki-explains-220388421745
There have always been people who wanted to close the door after they got in, but most of the xenophobia that's driving votes for Trump isn't from non-white people.
Let's not lose the main point: if a segment that's mostly Trump supporters is against immigration and immigrants, that doesn't indicate a danger for Democrats in the election, but rather, who supports Trump.