As far as races are concerned, I'm actually seeing a bit of an all-state tour trend in Senate races for red seats Democrats are not expected to win. Perhaps I could call this the Beto Effect as after Beto O'Rourke ran for the US Senate in Texas back in 2018, his all-county campaign made headlines throughout 2018.
As far as races are concerned, I'm actually seeing a bit of an all-state tour trend in Senate races for red seats Democrats are not expected to win. Perhaps I could call this the Beto Effect as after Beto O'Rourke ran for the US Senate in Texas back in 2018, his all-county campaign made headlines throughout 2018.
Two such campaigns are in the TN-SEN and WV-SEN races. Both Gloria Johnson and Glenn Elliott in their respective races are probably the strongest Democratic Candidates in Solid Republican races even while their all-county tours aren't necessarily going to make the races any closer than they've already been.
What I'm most interested to see is how swing regions in TN and WV are going to be impacted by these Senate races.
I don't know TN but in researching WV, Monongalia County, a swing county where Biden barely lost in 2020, could likely become bluer as a result of Elliott's candidacy (he's becoming very visible) and even the presidential election. There are also three WV counties, Cabell, Jefferson, and Kanawha, that aren't swing countries but ones where Biden got 40+% of the votes. They could inch upwards a bit in turnout, but it remains to be seen.
I'm no expert on Tennessee, but on general principles, I'd look at what happens in the suburbs, particularly those of Nashville and presumably Memphis, though I've heard less talk about those and many of those suburbs are in Arkansas.
Our only realistic goals this decade in Tennessee are getting the Nashville area to be too blue to crack in 2032 and to try and make Knox county competitive to light blue.
I’m hoping Gloria Johnson does better than 2020 Democratic Senate Candidate Marsha Bradshaw, who got 35% of the votes.
She could go in the low 40% range in terms of votes but I really don’t know if she would be able to hit the 45+% mark. Phil Bredesen got roughly 44% of the votes in Marsha Blackburn’s first Senate run but now she’s running for re-election as a freshman Senator.
We could always use our fellow liberal Taylor Swift’s help!
I'm not sure why but Tennessee's suburbs still generally remain obnoxiously red. But it's not as if Tennessee is any more evangelical or rural than say Georgia or North Carolina. Maybe Tennessee remains more largely rural and exurban, but Nashville, Memphis, Chattanooga and Knoxville are all growing cities and from what I've read and heard they tend to attract young professionals with their culture and atmosphere. It may just be the voting history of the state still being ancestrally Republican vs North Carolina. Georgia by contrast, with Atlanta has a far larger metro of over 6 million people combined with a massive influx of Northern and younger professional transplants.
The eastern third's one of the most ancestrally GOP parts of the country, the western third's got roughly a 1:1 correlation of race and party, and the middle third's still got densely populated rurals to pair with burbs whose population is heavily of Southern origin.
East Tennessee supported the Union during the Civil War. Thus they have essentially always been hardcore Republican. Even when the Republican Party in most of the south was nonexistent due to the "Party of Lincoln" association.
I think it's mostly because Tennessee is just like Florida, a sponge for tax-averse right-wing refugees from blue states. The same types of people moving to Fort Myers, Florida, are also moving to Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
Hmmm. That is a problem, especially considering TN is more red than FL.
On the other hand, Gloria Johnson has been focusing on meeting voters in all-99 county diners over a month ago. She’s certainly doing effective retail politics, even if Marsha Blackburn is heavily favored to win the race.
Agree, it’s within the realm of possibility that TN becomes the Republicans biggest “safe” state depending on TX and FL trends. That really doesn’t put them in a great position to win the presidency. Will be interesting to watch the trends of Nashville to see if it could ever become an Atlanta and make the state competitive.
I know a right wing retired Latino cop from LA who moved his family of 6 to Tennessee for exactly that reason. From social media the fairly moderate adult daughter married an undereducated local RWNJ and swung seriously rightward from the multiple degreed L.A. party girl I knew.
On the other hand, my fairly liberal “aunt” (who moved from WV to CA in the early 80’s) also sold her place in OC and moved back East to Tennessee in retirement, unfortunately she has since lost a long battle with cancer.
If nothing else, it's good for the party to have credible candidates who can actually campaign in deep red areas, as opposed to being either completely incompetent or grifting a la Marcus Flowers.
I'm really impressed with the Democratic Senate Candidates running in red states this election cycle. They have credible backgrounds and interesting profiles.
Democrats in red states need to be fired up and expand the base.
In the case of the WV counties i mentioned where Biden got 40% of the votes, the most notable cities in the state are located in those counties. Definitely not deep red territory. Locally wise, Glenn Elliott could help turnout in cities like Charleston, Huntington, Morgantown, and others depending on what his ground game is looking like.
As far as TN is concerned, local turnout would be more applicable for Gloria Johnson in cities like Memphis and Nashville, where there are more diverse number of demographics favorable to Democrats than the rural parts of the state.
I'm just curious if we have candidates further down the ballot(otherwise, it's kind of a waste to a large degree)that can benefit; I'm talking state lege, County council, local Council\Mayor
I can't comment on the more local races, but I would think in both TN and WV in the Senate and Presidential races that turnout will help the local races in areas that are not deep red.
I was going to add something about WV Democratic Senate Candidate Glenn Elliott as I've mentioned his name before in previous discussions on DKE and The Downballot:
While he's not likely going to win the election, from a qualitative standpoint, I believe Elliott's become a surprisingly effective messenger as a Democrat in WV while recognizing how deep red the state has become. He also happened to be a delegate for Kamala Harris at the DNC Convention, which shows how dedicated he is to the Democratic Party.
What percentage does he need to get to deserve to be called a "surprisingly effective messenger for Democratic Party"? I don't think we can say he is until the votes are counted.
I actually think he could get to 35% but this is also an open Senate race. What helps Elliott is that Governor Jim Justice has been getting bad press with the businesses he owns and has become more aloof in the state. This doesn't assure Elliott will win the race as Justice and the WV GOP have a stranglehold on the state, but he has an opening with this.
Even though this was back in 2014, Democratic Senate Candidate Natalie Tennant did receive 34.47% of the votes in an open Senate race against Shelley Moore Capito when she was first running for the Senate. 2014 wasn't of course a good year for Democrats but the main reason why 2020 Senate Candidate Paula Jean Swearengin got 27% of the votes was that she was too liberal for WV and she was running against Capito when she was already a Senator.
This is purely my opinion but in Elliott's interviews as well as statements, he's aimed to keep the right balance between being a Democrat vs. what WV needs are. I'm not sure how this will end up translating into votes but essentially, Elliott has positioned himself not to be divisive and is more of a unity candidate. He has a good grasp on the issues but still mindful that he has to appeal to more than just simply the Democratic Party base. According to Elliott himself, Wheeling (where he's served two terms as Mayor), is a conservative city so if that's the case, he has the ability to be bipartisan as needed to get things done.
As far as the votes are concerned, it remains to be seen how far through WV Elliott will be able to make an impact. The biggest problem he faces isn't being a Democrat but getting enough visibility to the degree where voters think they know him. That's been evident in polls. It's hard to mount a Senate campaign in a mountain state like WV without help from the DSCC and other significant grassroots groups. In a way though, it actually makes things easier for Elliott. I don't think the DSCC getting involved would help the race.
As far as races are concerned, I'm actually seeing a bit of an all-state tour trend in Senate races for red seats Democrats are not expected to win. Perhaps I could call this the Beto Effect as after Beto O'Rourke ran for the US Senate in Texas back in 2018, his all-county campaign made headlines throughout 2018.
Two such campaigns are in the TN-SEN and WV-SEN races. Both Gloria Johnson and Glenn Elliott in their respective races are probably the strongest Democratic Candidates in Solid Republican races even while their all-county tours aren't necessarily going to make the races any closer than they've already been.
What I'm most interested to see is how swing regions in TN and WV are going to be impacted by these Senate races.
I don't know TN but in researching WV, Monongalia County, a swing county where Biden barely lost in 2020, could likely become bluer as a result of Elliott's candidacy (he's becoming very visible) and even the presidential election. There are also three WV counties, Cabell, Jefferson, and Kanawha, that aren't swing countries but ones where Biden got 40+% of the votes. They could inch upwards a bit in turnout, but it remains to be seen.
I'm no expert on Tennessee, but on general principles, I'd look at what happens in the suburbs, particularly those of Nashville and presumably Memphis, though I've heard less talk about those and many of those suburbs are in Arkansas.
Interested to see how close TN-05 ends up.
Our only realistic goals this decade in Tennessee are getting the Nashville area to be too blue to crack in 2032 and to try and make Knox county competitive to light blue.
Sure.
I’m hoping Gloria Johnson does better than 2020 Democratic Senate Candidate Marsha Bradshaw, who got 35% of the votes.
She could go in the low 40% range in terms of votes but I really don’t know if she would be able to hit the 45+% mark. Phil Bredesen got roughly 44% of the votes in Marsha Blackburn’s first Senate run but now she’s running for re-election as a freshman Senator.
We could always use our fellow liberal Taylor Swift’s help!
I'm not sure why but Tennessee's suburbs still generally remain obnoxiously red. But it's not as if Tennessee is any more evangelical or rural than say Georgia or North Carolina. Maybe Tennessee remains more largely rural and exurban, but Nashville, Memphis, Chattanooga and Knoxville are all growing cities and from what I've read and heard they tend to attract young professionals with their culture and atmosphere. It may just be the voting history of the state still being ancestrally Republican vs North Carolina. Georgia by contrast, with Atlanta has a far larger metro of over 6 million people combined with a massive influx of Northern and younger professional transplants.
I guess we’ll just have to see how Gloria Johnson turns out voters.
I’d imagine we’ll also see decent turnout among Democrats even if we’re obviously not going to see Harris win TN.
The eastern third's one of the most ancestrally GOP parts of the country, the western third's got roughly a 1:1 correlation of race and party, and the middle third's still got densely populated rurals to pair with burbs whose population is heavily of Southern origin.
East Tennessee supported the Union during the Civil War. Thus they have essentially always been hardcore Republican. Even when the Republican Party in most of the south was nonexistent due to the "Party of Lincoln" association.
I think it's mostly because Tennessee is just like Florida, a sponge for tax-averse right-wing refugees from blue states. The same types of people moving to Fort Myers, Florida, are also moving to Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
Hmmm. That is a problem, especially considering TN is more red than FL.
On the other hand, Gloria Johnson has been focusing on meeting voters in all-99 county diners over a month ago. She’s certainly doing effective retail politics, even if Marsha Blackburn is heavily favored to win the race.
https://www.votegloriajohnson.com/events/
Agree, it’s within the realm of possibility that TN becomes the Republicans biggest “safe” state depending on TX and FL trends. That really doesn’t put them in a great position to win the presidency. Will be interesting to watch the trends of Nashville to see if it could ever become an Atlanta and make the state competitive.
I know a right wing retired Latino cop from LA who moved his family of 6 to Tennessee for exactly that reason. From social media the fairly moderate adult daughter married an undereducated local RWNJ and swung seriously rightward from the multiple degreed L.A. party girl I knew.
On the other hand, my fairly liberal “aunt” (who moved from WV to CA in the early 80’s) also sold her place in OC and moved back East to Tennessee in retirement, unfortunately she has since lost a long battle with cancer.
I'm sorry.
Is Governor Bill Lee running TN like Governor Ron DeSantis? Or have TN's tax incentives been in the state for a long time?
If nothing else, it's good for the party to have credible candidates who can actually campaign in deep red areas, as opposed to being either completely incompetent or grifting a la Marcus Flowers.
I'm really impressed with the Democratic Senate Candidates running in red states this election cycle. They have credible backgrounds and interesting profiles.
Democrats in red states need to be fired up and expand the base.
Good candidates across the board; if anything, they may create small amounts of interest locally
Yes.
In the case of the WV counties i mentioned where Biden got 40% of the votes, the most notable cities in the state are located in those counties. Definitely not deep red territory. Locally wise, Glenn Elliott could help turnout in cities like Charleston, Huntington, Morgantown, and others depending on what his ground game is looking like.
As far as TN is concerned, local turnout would be more applicable for Gloria Johnson in cities like Memphis and Nashville, where there are more diverse number of demographics favorable to Democrats than the rural parts of the state.
I'm just curious if we have candidates further down the ballot(otherwise, it's kind of a waste to a large degree)that can benefit; I'm talking state lege, County council, local Council\Mayor
I can't comment on the more local races, but I would think in both TN and WV in the Senate and Presidential races that turnout will help the local races in areas that are not deep red.
Hard to say until the election results come.
I was going to add something about WV Democratic Senate Candidate Glenn Elliott as I've mentioned his name before in previous discussions on DKE and The Downballot:
While he's not likely going to win the election, from a qualitative standpoint, I believe Elliott's become a surprisingly effective messenger as a Democrat in WV while recognizing how deep red the state has become. He also happened to be a delegate for Kamala Harris at the DNC Convention, which shows how dedicated he is to the Democratic Party.
What percentage does he need to get to deserve to be called a "surprisingly effective messenger for Democratic Party"? I don't think we can say he is until the votes are counted.
I'm hoping he gets to 30%; I will leave it to you guys to discuss the significance
I actually think he could get to 35% but this is also an open Senate race. What helps Elliott is that Governor Jim Justice has been getting bad press with the businesses he owns and has become more aloof in the state. This doesn't assure Elliott will win the race as Justice and the WV GOP have a stranglehold on the state, but he has an opening with this.
Even though this was back in 2014, Democratic Senate Candidate Natalie Tennant did receive 34.47% of the votes in an open Senate race against Shelley Moore Capito when she was first running for the Senate. 2014 wasn't of course a good year for Democrats but the main reason why 2020 Senate Candidate Paula Jean Swearengin got 27% of the votes was that she was too liberal for WV and she was running against Capito when she was already a Senator.
I re-edited my original comment for clarity.
This is purely my opinion but in Elliott's interviews as well as statements, he's aimed to keep the right balance between being a Democrat vs. what WV needs are. I'm not sure how this will end up translating into votes but essentially, Elliott has positioned himself not to be divisive and is more of a unity candidate. He has a good grasp on the issues but still mindful that he has to appeal to more than just simply the Democratic Party base. According to Elliott himself, Wheeling (where he's served two terms as Mayor), is a conservative city so if that's the case, he has the ability to be bipartisan as needed to get things done.
As far as the votes are concerned, it remains to be seen how far through WV Elliott will be able to make an impact. The biggest problem he faces isn't being a Democrat but getting enough visibility to the degree where voters think they know him. That's been evident in polls. It's hard to mount a Senate campaign in a mountain state like WV without help from the DSCC and other significant grassroots groups. In a way though, it actually makes things easier for Elliott. I don't think the DSCC getting involved would help the race.