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sacman701's avatar

Here are my updated crude 31- and 14-day polling averages. I exclude GOP troll polls (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc), any polls released by partisan organizations, and some with really sketchy methods such as ActiVote. For the 14-day state averages, the number of polls is in parentheses.

AZ: 31-day T+1.0, 14-day T+1.9 (7)

GA: 31-day T+1.1, 14-day T+0.9 (10)

MI: 31-day H+2.7, 14-day H+2.9 (8)

NV: 31-day H+1.7, 14-day H+2.0 (4)

NC: 31-day T+0.2, 14-day T+0.3 (12)

PA: 31-day H+1.5, 14-day H+1.7 (13)

WI: 31-day H+2.5, 14-day H+1.9 (6)

US: 31-day H+3.1, 14-day H+4.0

The national post-debate polls show movement toward Harris, but the state polls don't really. With margins this small, it could just be a function of which firms are polling where. For now Harris has clear polling leads in enough states to win. It's possible (IMO unlikely) that polls are systematically too favorable to Dems as they were in 2020, but at this point Trump needs either a systematic polling error or a big October surprise: his own campaign strategy suggests that he has little room to grow his own vote, as his ads have been entirely aimed at discrediting Harris. On top of that, Harris has more ads booked the rest of the way and a better ground game by all accounts.

Observation/gripe: Suppose the situation was reversed, and Harris was up 1-2 in Wisconsin and about 1 in Michigan, North Carolina was tied, and Trump was up about 3 in Georgia, 2 in Nevada and Arizona, and 1-2 in Pennsylvania. I suspect most media outlets wouldn't be calling the race a tossup as they do currently.

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Kevin H.'s avatar

Would this be 276 electoral votes?

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Jonathan's avatar

Yup;276-262

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AWildLibAppeared's avatar

It seems like 276-262 is the most probable outcome right now.

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