Less folks will vote early than in 2020, particularly Dems (b/c GOP use it less).
Comparing the splits to 2020 will be near useless. I think the better comparison eould be 2022. The volume will be much lower, obviously but in terms of the split.
Plus, is actually, sometimes, encouraging his side to do it.
Modeled party ID, in a no party reg state, comparing partial early voting from today to four years ago, in the midst of a pandemic (and Trump worries) causing historically abnormal early voting from Dems...hard to think of a data point less useful for 2024 analysis!
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1839661911060672545?t=CCr97p4--jMihOVlMLRD9Q&s=19
Virginia early voting today vs this point 2020:
Dems 53.7% (-1.3%)
Reps 39.4% (+7.7%)
Less folks will vote early than in 2020, particularly Dems (b/c GOP use it less).
Comparing the splits to 2020 will be near useless. I think the better comparison eould be 2022. The volume will be much lower, obviously but in terms of the split.
Plus, is actually, sometimes, encouraging his side to do it.
This is the modeled party BS from TargetSmart. Virginia has no party registration!
Modeled party ID, in a no party reg state, comparing partial early voting from today to four years ago, in the midst of a pandemic (and Trump worries) causing historically abnormal early voting from Dems...hard to think of a data point less useful for 2024 analysis!