Way too late for most people to read about this, but for anyone still around, there’s 2 things that stand out here, 1 being a shock, the other more expected.
House Majority Forward, the nonprofit affiliated with House Democratic leadership and House Majority PAC, will start running digital ads next week attacking House Rep…
Way too late for most people to read about this, but for anyone still around, there’s 2 things that stand out here, 1 being a shock, the other more expected.
House Majority Forward, the nonprofit affiliated with House Democratic leadership and House Majority PAC, will start running digital ads next week attacking House Republicans voting to cut Medicaid spending, according to a spokesperson for the group. The ads will appear in 25 battleground districts in California, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, New York, North Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin.
The shock: Missouri. This is the first time it’s been mentioned by Dem operatives as a target seat as far as I’m aware. The closest district is probably (?) MO-02 with a pretty strong incumbent GOP rep Ann Wagner. That they’re spending cash on it this early means they think a 2nd Trump term can completely break away the still red Republican suburban districts that haven’t shifted towards Democrats very much up until now. Or they have data showing that it’s winnable. Or maybe they think she’ll retire.
The more expected from previous articles, but still good to see is the party investing in Iowa, which they haven’t really done since 2018 except for IA-03 (and we all know how close that got the state blue). They sense opportunity in old Democratic held districts among the working class the party has been bleeding. Or they have data for it.
Good to see something like this from the party. The strategy is to use what got Trump elected twice against him, everywhere (media). That only happens if you go out and frame the debate before Republicans can.
Yet another possibility: That Missouri is also about psychological warfare, intending to scare the bejeezus out of Republican lawmakers, hoping to peel away the few that are needed to stop Trump’s insane budget proposal.
Just because not every ad produced by a Democratic affiliated group is airing in a particular district doesn't mean that Dems are "giving up on it".
But in the regions you name we're probably going to mostly be playing defense. There are at least a couple of potentially flippable now-red seats but they may be tougher targets than ones in the states mentioned, while several Dems only narrowly held on.
We are going to playing defence there only if 2020-2024 trend continues and Trump's coalition doesn't break apart by then or hasn't already broken apart.
MO-2 has absolutely shifted toward Dems by quite a bit. The old 2010s district, which was pretty much all suburban, was essentially even in 2020 presidential vote share (Daily Kos Elections says Trump won it narrowly, Daves Redistricting says Biden won it narrowly) after going for Romney by 16 in 2012. Despite being heavily gerrymandered, the new district has still shifted a lot, from Romney +20 in 2012 to Trump +8 in 2024. If Republicans hadn't gerrymandered it, it might already be blue.
I would guess Trump won it by a point or two. It had parts of Jefferson, St. Louis, and St. Charles counties which moved 2020 to 2024 by R+2.9, R+0.6, and D+0.5 respectively.
The Fair District Amedment in Florida doesn’t have a commission and just relies on vague language that legislators are supposed to abide by. The Ohio commission is a complete sham that guarantees Republicans will have control of the process and specifically allows the splitting of certain counties when it’s convenient for Republicans to do so.
What is needed is a California/Colorado/Michigan type commission that requires equal members from each party on the commission.
Way too late for most people to read about this, but for anyone still around, there’s 2 things that stand out here, 1 being a shock, the other more expected.
https://archive.ph/QhowK
House Majority Forward, the nonprofit affiliated with House Democratic leadership and House Majority PAC, will start running digital ads next week attacking House Republicans voting to cut Medicaid spending, according to a spokesperson for the group. The ads will appear in 25 battleground districts in California, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, New York, North Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin.
The shock: Missouri. This is the first time it’s been mentioned by Dem operatives as a target seat as far as I’m aware. The closest district is probably (?) MO-02 with a pretty strong incumbent GOP rep Ann Wagner. That they’re spending cash on it this early means they think a 2nd Trump term can completely break away the still red Republican suburban districts that haven’t shifted towards Democrats very much up until now. Or they have data showing that it’s winnable. Or maybe they think she’ll retire.
The more expected from previous articles, but still good to see is the party investing in Iowa, which they haven’t really done since 2018 except for IA-03 (and we all know how close that got the state blue). They sense opportunity in old Democratic held districts among the working class the party has been bleeding. Or they have data for it.
Good to see something like this from the party. The strategy is to use what got Trump elected twice against him, everywhere (media). That only happens if you go out and frame the debate before Republicans can.
Yet another possibility: That Missouri is also about psychological warfare, intending to scare the bejeezus out of Republican lawmakers, hoping to peel away the few that are needed to stop Trump’s insane budget proposal.
So they're officially giving up on South Florida and South Texas districts that used to be close just a few years back or were won by Biden?
Just because not every ad produced by a Democratic affiliated group is airing in a particular district doesn't mean that Dems are "giving up on it".
But in the regions you name we're probably going to mostly be playing defense. There are at least a couple of potentially flippable now-red seats but they may be tougher targets than ones in the states mentioned, while several Dems only narrowly held on.
We are going to playing defence there only if 2020-2024 trend continues and Trump's coalition doesn't break apart by then or hasn't already broken apart.
MO-2 has absolutely shifted toward Dems by quite a bit. The old 2010s district, which was pretty much all suburban, was essentially even in 2020 presidential vote share (Daily Kos Elections says Trump won it narrowly, Daves Redistricting says Biden won it narrowly) after going for Romney by 16 in 2012. Despite being heavily gerrymandered, the new district has still shifted a lot, from Romney +20 in 2012 to Trump +8 in 2024. If Republicans hadn't gerrymandered it, it might already be blue.
I wonder who carried the old MO-02 in 2024, though? Missouri seems to be the last holdout on DRA for 2024 data.
I would guess Trump won it by a point or two. It had parts of Jefferson, St. Louis, and St. Charles counties which moved 2020 to 2024 by R+2.9, R+0.6, and D+0.5 respectively.
Why haven’t Democrats tried putting indepdent congressional redistricting on the ballot like they have for state legislative redistricting ?
Probably because the GOP will just ignore it like they did in Ohio and Florida.
The Fair District Amedment in Florida doesn’t have a commission and just relies on vague language that legislators are supposed to abide by. The Ohio commission is a complete sham that guarantees Republicans will have control of the process and specifically allows the splitting of certain counties when it’s convenient for Republicans to do so.
What is needed is a California/Colorado/Michigan type commission that requires equal members from each party on the commission.