I’m excited to get a read on Alaska next week! It should show just how competitive the Senate and gubernatorial races actually are.
I am rooting for Tom Begich to come in a solid first place and for three Republicans to get 2-4. I hope JKT and Walker drop if they barely come in the top 4. Nate Silver had a good analysis showing the huge advantage of a single nominee in a top 4 system. If Begich was the only Dem, he’d probably win the general just based off of vote exhaustion.
Unfortunately, I think Kriess-Tomkins will go to the top 4 with Begich and probably at least Wilson. Not sure who the 4th spot might be. But that doesn't mean that the seat isn't out of reach - a poll released in July (https://bsky.app/profile/alaskasurvey.bsky.social/post/3mq5ys4ybsc2r) showed Begich beating out Kriess-Tomkins and the Republicans in RCV anyway.
MI-Sen: Since I did the Wisconsin thing breaking down which congressional districts Crowley and Hong won, I'll do the same for El-Sayed and Stevens.
1st (Upper Peninsula, Petoskey, Traverse City, Gaylord, Standish): El-Sayed +6%
2nd (Cadillac, Ludington, Mount Pleasant, eastern Grand Rapids suburbs): Stevens +4%
3rd (corridor including Grand Rapids area and Muskegon): El-Sayed +22%
4th (Dutch Grand Rapids suburbs and Kalamazoo/Battle Creek): El-Sayed +12%
5th (Monroe, Jackson, Marshall, Three Rivers): Stevens +1%
6th (Ann Arbor and south/west Detroit suburbs): El-Sayed +12%
7th (Lansing and west Detroit exurbs): El-Sayed +10%
8th (Flint and MBS): Stevens +13%
9th (The Thumb and north Detroit exurbs): Stevens +12%
10th (inner Macomb County): Stevens +5%
11th (inner Oakland County, Stevens's district): Stevens +4% (yikes)
12th (west Detroit and inner suburbs): Stevens +10%
13th (inner city Detroit): Stevens +9
Strange that El-Sayed won the 1st just as moderate Callie Barr defeated progressive Kyle Blomquist in the primary for that seat, just as it is strange Stevens won the 13th as progressive Donavan McKinney defeated moderate Rep. Shri Thanedar.
In regards to hobbs naming a republican running mate, it is a good thing I do not live in AZ as I would vote against here just for that.
You'd vote against her in a general election? If so, don't post here!
I'd still vote for her, that's an easy decision.
I wouldn't donate anything to her or volunteer or similar, though.
With dems breaking several republican supermajorities so far:
NC
Democrats Break the GOP Supermajority in the Legislature
https://www.theassemblync.com/news/politics/democrats-republicans-nc-assembly-supermajority/
IA
Democrat Catelin Drey sworn in to Iowa Senate, ending Republican supermajority
https://www.thegazette.com/news/state/democrat-catelin-drey-sworn-in-to-iowa-senate-ending-republican-supermajority/article_a51adddf-7314-5eed-8f74-ce88e3c63b68.html
MS
Democrats Flip Two Seats in Deep Red Mississippi, Break GOP Supermajority
https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-mississippi-vote-gop-supermajority-10994762?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1762340809
Which do you think are next?
Here is a great article talking about 13 republican supermajorities that could be broken.
New Ballotpedia analysis finds 13 state legislative Republican supermajorities exposed to breaking this year
https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/06/30/new-ballotpedia-analysis-finds-13-state-legislative-supermajorities-exposed-to-breaking-this-year/
Some are FL, TX, SC, NE and NC.
'Dems are angry': Red state lt. gov predicts 'tough time' for GOP to hold state House
https://www.rawstory.com/dan-patrick-republican-warning/
Dems have a chance to flip red state after GOP's 'worst nightmare' came true: analysis
https://www.rawstory.com/florida-democratic-party-2676628768/
SC Democrats tout historic slate of 2026 candidates - can they break GOP supermajority?
https://abcnews4.com/news/local/sc-democrats-tout-historic-slate-of-2026-candidates-can-they-break-gop-supermajority-jaime-harrison-lindsey-graham-christale-spain-drew-mckissick-south-carolina-republicans
Primary raises questions about Republican supermajority in Nebraska Legislature
https://nebraskapublicmedia.org/en/news/news-articles/nebraska-republicans-legislative-supermajority-could-be-threatened-in-general-election/
These articles are older than a year in some cases.
Looks like mycrackhead will not be able to fight satanists or steal welfare funds now that they lost.
Mike Lindell vows to take on satanic statues 'first thing' after being sworn in
https://www.rawstory.com/mike-lindell-satanic-statues/
Mike Lindell Vows To Use His 'Foundation' To 'Secure Welfare' If Elected MN Governor
https://crooksandliars.com/2026/01/mike-lindell-vows-use-his-foundation
Again, why are you posting these old and now obsolete things?
Out of the 46 dems who voted for the riley act how many lose their primaries or general election.
Craig has already lost.
46 Democrats Voted for the Laken Riley Act.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/46-democrats-voted-for-the-laken-riley-act-for-some-its-now-a-midterms-liability
Angie Craig: I regret my vote on the Laken Riley Act
https://www.startribune.com/ice-agent-surge-minnesota-protests-federal-enforcement/601591429
Craig’s swing to the far right costs her congressional seat
https://www.minnpost.com/elections/2024/11/craigs-swing-to-the-right-keeps-her-congressional-district-blue/
Joint Base Charleston renamed Joint Base Lindsey Graham
https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/joint-base-charleston-lindsey-graham-hegseth/article_9f067929-67be-4776-b3c0-b2c0a88ccae6.html
Until the next dem comes in and changes it back, which they would be in their power to do.
MI-Gov - General election introductory ad by Jocelyn Benson:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DcBSjosxQ9M/?igsh=dGtxajljYWx1Mm9m
I’m excited to get a read on Alaska next week! It should show just how competitive the Senate and gubernatorial races actually are.
I am rooting for Tom Begich to come in a solid first place and for three Republicans to get 2-4. I hope JKT and Walker drop if they barely come in the top 4. Nate Silver had a good analysis showing the huge advantage of a single nominee in a top 4 system. If Begich was the only Dem, he’d probably win the general just based off of vote exhaustion.
don't care much for RCV
Unfortunately, I think Kriess-Tomkins will go to the top 4 with Begich and probably at least Wilson. Not sure who the 4th spot might be. But that doesn't mean that the seat isn't out of reach - a poll released in July (https://bsky.app/profile/alaskasurvey.bsky.social/post/3mq5ys4ybsc2r) showed Begich beating out Kriess-Tomkins and the Republicans in RCV anyway.
MI-Sen: Since I did the Wisconsin thing breaking down which congressional districts Crowley and Hong won, I'll do the same for El-Sayed and Stevens.
1st (Upper Peninsula, Petoskey, Traverse City, Gaylord, Standish): El-Sayed +6%
2nd (Cadillac, Ludington, Mount Pleasant, eastern Grand Rapids suburbs): Stevens +4%
3rd (corridor including Grand Rapids area and Muskegon): El-Sayed +22%
4th (Dutch Grand Rapids suburbs and Kalamazoo/Battle Creek): El-Sayed +12%
5th (Monroe, Jackson, Marshall, Three Rivers): Stevens +1%
6th (Ann Arbor and south/west Detroit suburbs): El-Sayed +12%
7th (Lansing and west Detroit exurbs): El-Sayed +10%
8th (Flint and MBS): Stevens +13%
9th (The Thumb and north Detroit exurbs): Stevens +12%
10th (inner Macomb County): Stevens +5%
11th (inner Oakland County, Stevens's district): Stevens +4% (yikes)
12th (west Detroit and inner suburbs): Stevens +10%
13th (inner city Detroit): Stevens +9
Strange that El-Sayed won the 1st just as moderate Callie Barr defeated progressive Kyle Blomquist in the primary for that seat, just as it is strange Stevens won the 13th as progressive Donavan McKinney defeated moderate Rep. Shri Thanedar.
Trump says he will soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a US territory
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-says-soon-declare-strait-204004763.html
🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪
We are living in The Onion.
Ohio poll:
Brown 48-44
Acton 47-46
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/2088309117815288178?s=46&t=sbdQQeYBqp0h_Zql717iTw