As always, I've been watching the judiciary, and there's been an interesting trend regarding the pace of judicial vacancies. Today, we got our eighth vacancy announcement made public since the election; those eight (all district court seats) break down as seven senior/retirement announcements from Bush appointees who weren't senior-eligi…
As always, I've been watching the judiciary, and there's been an interesting trend regarding the pace of judicial vacancies. Today, we got our eighth vacancy announcement made public since the election; those eight (all district court seats) break down as seven senior/retirement announcements from Bush appointees who weren't senior-eligible the last time Trump was in office and one Obama appointee who died at 61 in January. Comparing that to the other presidential elections of the 2000s (vacancies announced from the election through the beginning of March):
2024-5: 8 (so far); 8 district; 7 voluntary, 1 death
2020-1: 43; 9 circuit, 34 district; 41 voluntary, 1 death, 1 operation of law; 40 filled by Biden
2004-5: 9; 2 circuit, 7 district; 8 voluntary, 1 death; 9 filled by Bush
2000-1: 21; 5 circuit, 15 district, 1 trade; 21 voluntary (1 disability retirement); 21 filled by Bush
While the rush in the aftermath of 2020 was certainly an outlier, and the remainder of February could see more announcements (Trump saw three announcements in February 2017), we aren't seeing judges rushing for the exits and if Biden's outlier was part of a trend, it's a future one. While I'm sure Trump will get some horrid people on the bench, and it would be a massive relief if he doesn't get at least two more justices on SCOTUS, at this point in modern presidencies, a large portion of vacancies that end up getting filled are already known:
Trump part 2: 4 circuit and 39 district are known, with hope that one of each will be rescinded
Biden: 10 circuit (22%) and 37% (87) of all filled vacancies known
Trump part 1: 1 SCOTUS, 20 circuit (37%) and 50% (117) of all filled vacancies known
Obama: 17 circuit (31%) and 24% (78) of all filled vacancies known
Bush: 30 circuit (48%) and 31% (103) of all filled vacancies known
As a brutal midterm introduces at least a remote possibility of a Dem senate come 2027, the powers that be will be lobbying GOP judges to announce their retirements earlier than later, so this is not a good start for them. For reference, here's a breakdown of the judges who will qualify for senior status by the end of Trump's term:
GOP appointees:
Qualified before Biden: 3 SCOTUS, 20 circuit, 29 district
Qualified under Biden: 5 circuit, 15 district
Qualify this congress: 3 circuit, 10 district
Qualify next congress: 6 circuit, 23 district
Dem appointees:
Qualified before Biden: 1 SCOTUS, 9 circuit, 16 district
A question related to judges: After Trump won, there were some news stories about some judges who rescinded their previously announced retirements (and of course GOP politicians not happy about it.)
Do you know how many are there who actually did that? Thx.
Judges I know of who've rescinded their senior status announcements:
Joe Billy McDade, CD IL, announced 2/2004, withdrew 11/2004, perhaps at the urging of senator-elect Obama, replaced by Obama in 2010
Michael Kanne, 7th Cir., announced 2/2018, withdrew 5/2018 after Trump refused to nominate Tom Fisher, died 2022 and replaced by Biden
Robert Bruce King, 4th Cir., announced 8/2021, withdrew 11/2021 after Manchin and/or WH insisted on Jeaneen Legato over Carte Goodwin as his replacement, and at 85, is now one of just two Dem circuit appointees over 78
David Hurd, ND NY, announced 11/2021, withdrew 8/2022 when replacement nominee wasn't Utica based, announced again 4/2024 and was replaced by Anthony Brindisi
Max Cogburn, WD NC, announced 2/2022, withdrew 11/2024 after election
Karen Caldwell, ED KY, announced 7/2022, withdrew 3/2023 after deal to replace her with Chad Meredith fell through after outcry; Meredith would have been Biden's most conservative appointee by a country mile
Algenon Marbley, SD OH, announced 10/2023, withdrew 11/2024 after election
James Wynn, 4th Cir., announced 1/2024, withdrew 12/2024 after election
Valerie Caproni, SD NY, announced 11/08/2024, announcement never made official because confirmation of Tali Farhadian Weinstein wasn't included in the deal where Manchin and Sinema gifted Trump circuit seats
Officially, I would say one circuit and two district judges, though it remains to be seen how the cases of Jane Stranch (6th Cir.) and Dana Christensen (D MT) play out.
As always, I've been watching the judiciary, and there's been an interesting trend regarding the pace of judicial vacancies. Today, we got our eighth vacancy announcement made public since the election; those eight (all district court seats) break down as seven senior/retirement announcements from Bush appointees who weren't senior-eligible the last time Trump was in office and one Obama appointee who died at 61 in January. Comparing that to the other presidential elections of the 2000s (vacancies announced from the election through the beginning of March):
2024-5: 8 (so far); 8 district; 7 voluntary, 1 death
2020-1: 43; 9 circuit, 34 district; 41 voluntary, 1 death, 1 operation of law; 40 filled by Biden
2016-7: 17; 4 circuit, 13 district; 17 voluntary (1 disability retirement); 16 filled by Trump
2012-3: 22; 3 circuit, 19 district; 22 voluntary; 20 filled by Obama
2008-9: 20; 1 circuit, 19 district; 20 voluntary (1 disability retirement); 20 filled by Obama
2004-5: 9; 2 circuit, 7 district; 8 voluntary, 1 death; 9 filled by Bush
2000-1: 21; 5 circuit, 15 district, 1 trade; 21 voluntary (1 disability retirement); 21 filled by Bush
While the rush in the aftermath of 2020 was certainly an outlier, and the remainder of February could see more announcements (Trump saw three announcements in February 2017), we aren't seeing judges rushing for the exits and if Biden's outlier was part of a trend, it's a future one. While I'm sure Trump will get some horrid people on the bench, and it would be a massive relief if he doesn't get at least two more justices on SCOTUS, at this point in modern presidencies, a large portion of vacancies that end up getting filled are already known:
Trump part 2: 4 circuit and 39 district are known, with hope that one of each will be rescinded
Biden: 10 circuit (22%) and 37% (87) of all filled vacancies known
Trump part 1: 1 SCOTUS, 20 circuit (37%) and 50% (117) of all filled vacancies known
Obama: 17 circuit (31%) and 24% (78) of all filled vacancies known
Bush: 30 circuit (48%) and 31% (103) of all filled vacancies known
As a brutal midterm introduces at least a remote possibility of a Dem senate come 2027, the powers that be will be lobbying GOP judges to announce their retirements earlier than later, so this is not a good start for them. For reference, here's a breakdown of the judges who will qualify for senior status by the end of Trump's term:
GOP appointees:
Qualified before Biden: 3 SCOTUS, 20 circuit, 29 district
Qualified under Biden: 5 circuit, 15 district
Qualify this congress: 3 circuit, 10 district
Qualify next congress: 6 circuit, 23 district
Dem appointees:
Qualified before Biden: 1 SCOTUS, 9 circuit, 16 district
Qualified under Biden: 4 circuit, 24 district
Qualify this congress: 1 SCOTUS, 8 circuit, 32 district, 1 trade
Qualify next congress: 8 circuit, 39 district, 1 trade
I think even conservative judges realize they are some of the last gatekeepers preventing us from descending into a full-blown autocracy.
A question related to judges: After Trump won, there were some news stories about some judges who rescinded their previously announced retirements (and of course GOP politicians not happy about it.)
Do you know how many are there who actually did that? Thx.
Judges I know of who've rescinded their senior status announcements:
Joe Billy McDade, CD IL, announced 2/2004, withdrew 11/2004, perhaps at the urging of senator-elect Obama, replaced by Obama in 2010
Michael Kanne, 7th Cir., announced 2/2018, withdrew 5/2018 after Trump refused to nominate Tom Fisher, died 2022 and replaced by Biden
Robert Bruce King, 4th Cir., announced 8/2021, withdrew 11/2021 after Manchin and/or WH insisted on Jeaneen Legato over Carte Goodwin as his replacement, and at 85, is now one of just two Dem circuit appointees over 78
David Hurd, ND NY, announced 11/2021, withdrew 8/2022 when replacement nominee wasn't Utica based, announced again 4/2024 and was replaced by Anthony Brindisi
Max Cogburn, WD NC, announced 2/2022, withdrew 11/2024 after election
Karen Caldwell, ED KY, announced 7/2022, withdrew 3/2023 after deal to replace her with Chad Meredith fell through after outcry; Meredith would have been Biden's most conservative appointee by a country mile
Algenon Marbley, SD OH, announced 10/2023, withdrew 11/2024 after election
James Wynn, 4th Cir., announced 1/2024, withdrew 12/2024 after election
Valerie Caproni, SD NY, announced 11/08/2024, announcement never made official because confirmation of Tali Farhadian Weinstein wasn't included in the deal where Manchin and Sinema gifted Trump circuit seats
Officially, I would say one circuit and two district judges, though it remains to be seen how the cases of Jane Stranch (6th Cir.) and Dana Christensen (D MT) play out.