As always, I've been watching the judiciary, and there's been an interesting trend regarding the pace of judicial vacancies. Today, we got our eighth vacancy announcement made public since the election; those eight (all district court seats) break down as seven senior/retirement announcements from Bush appointees who weren't senior-eligible the last time Trump was in office and one Obama appointee who died at 61 in January. Comparing that to the other presidential elections of the 2000s (vacancies announced from the election through the beginning of March):
2024-5: 8 (so far); 8 district; 7 voluntary, 1 death
2020-1: 43; 9 circuit, 34 district; 41 voluntary, 1 death, 1 operation of law; 40 filled by Biden
2004-5: 9; 2 circuit, 7 district; 8 voluntary, 1 death; 9 filled by Bush
2000-1: 21; 5 circuit, 15 district, 1 trade; 21 voluntary (1 disability retirement); 21 filled by Bush
While the rush in the aftermath of 2020 was certainly an outlier, and the remainder of February could see more announcements (Trump saw three announcements in February 2017), we aren't seeing judges rushing for the exits and if Biden's outlier was part of a trend, it's a future one. While I'm sure Trump will get some horrid people on the bench, and it would be a massive relief if he doesn't get at least two more justices on SCOTUS, at this point in modern presidencies, a large portion of vacancies that end up getting filled are already known:
Trump part 2: 4 circuit and 39 district are known, with hope that one of each will be rescinded
Biden: 10 circuit (22%) and 37% (87) of all filled vacancies known
Trump part 1: 1 SCOTUS, 20 circuit (37%) and 50% (117) of all filled vacancies known
Obama: 17 circuit (31%) and 24% (78) of all filled vacancies known
Bush: 30 circuit (48%) and 31% (103) of all filled vacancies known
As a brutal midterm introduces at least a remote possibility of a Dem senate come 2027, the powers that be will be lobbying GOP judges to announce their retirements earlier than later, so this is not a good start for them. For reference, here's a breakdown of the judges who will qualify for senior status by the end of Trump's term:
GOP appointees:
Qualified before Biden: 3 SCOTUS, 20 circuit, 29 district
Qualified under Biden: 5 circuit, 15 district
Qualify this congress: 3 circuit, 10 district
Qualify next congress: 6 circuit, 23 district
Dem appointees:
Qualified before Biden: 1 SCOTUS, 9 circuit, 16 district
As always, I've been watching the judiciary, and there's been an interesting trend regarding the pace of judicial vacancies. Today, we got our eighth vacancy announcement made public since the election; those eight (all district court seats) break down as seven senior/retirement announcements from Bush appointees who weren't senior-eligible the last time Trump was in office and one Obama appointee who died at 61 in January. Comparing that to the other presidential elections of the 2000s (vacancies announced from the election through the beginning of March):
2024-5: 8 (so far); 8 district; 7 voluntary, 1 death
2020-1: 43; 9 circuit, 34 district; 41 voluntary, 1 death, 1 operation of law; 40 filled by Biden
2016-7: 17; 4 circuit, 13 district; 17 voluntary (1 disability retirement); 16 filled by Trump
2012-3: 22; 3 circuit, 19 district; 22 voluntary; 20 filled by Obama
2008-9: 20; 1 circuit, 19 district; 20 voluntary (1 disability retirement); 20 filled by Obama
2004-5: 9; 2 circuit, 7 district; 8 voluntary, 1 death; 9 filled by Bush
2000-1: 21; 5 circuit, 15 district, 1 trade; 21 voluntary (1 disability retirement); 21 filled by Bush
While the rush in the aftermath of 2020 was certainly an outlier, and the remainder of February could see more announcements (Trump saw three announcements in February 2017), we aren't seeing judges rushing for the exits and if Biden's outlier was part of a trend, it's a future one. While I'm sure Trump will get some horrid people on the bench, and it would be a massive relief if he doesn't get at least two more justices on SCOTUS, at this point in modern presidencies, a large portion of vacancies that end up getting filled are already known:
Trump part 2: 4 circuit and 39 district are known, with hope that one of each will be rescinded
Biden: 10 circuit (22%) and 37% (87) of all filled vacancies known
Trump part 1: 1 SCOTUS, 20 circuit (37%) and 50% (117) of all filled vacancies known
Obama: 17 circuit (31%) and 24% (78) of all filled vacancies known
Bush: 30 circuit (48%) and 31% (103) of all filled vacancies known
As a brutal midterm introduces at least a remote possibility of a Dem senate come 2027, the powers that be will be lobbying GOP judges to announce their retirements earlier than later, so this is not a good start for them. For reference, here's a breakdown of the judges who will qualify for senior status by the end of Trump's term:
GOP appointees:
Qualified before Biden: 3 SCOTUS, 20 circuit, 29 district
Qualified under Biden: 5 circuit, 15 district
Qualify this congress: 3 circuit, 10 district
Qualify next congress: 6 circuit, 23 district
Dem appointees:
Qualified before Biden: 1 SCOTUS, 9 circuit, 16 district
Qualified under Biden: 4 circuit, 24 district
Qualify this congress: 1 SCOTUS, 8 circuit, 32 district, 1 trade
Qualify next congress: 8 circuit, 39 district, 1 trade
Deb Haaland will make a major announcement on Feb 11th.
Most likely she is officially running for Governor of NM