San Francisco is one place where progressives nationally are better off with the moderates prevailing in light of some of the clowns that progressives there elected, such as Chesa Boudin, or the recalled school board members whose main priority appeared to be renaming schools whose names were deemed by activists to be insufficiently "woke".
There really should be a different word to apply to those trying to be social justice warriors but are really making fools of themselves.
Being woke on the other hand goes back decades. We had that in Berkeley when the whole city fought for affirmative action. No thanks to Darrell Issa for Prop 209.
Yeah the GOP’s use of the word has become ludicrous. Every time a movie has a woman or black person in it, the world is subjected to a chorus of “woke!” It’s getting ridiculous. (Mind you, I was against the SF school board antics myself — specifically the removal of a mural painted by a literal communist that portrayed George Washington (correctly) as a colonial slaveholder — but the use of the word is out of control IMO.)
On the other hand, moderates in San Francisco don’t exactly have a great track record of neighborhood preservation and ensuring conditions for longtime businesses are strong enough to withstand changing tides in the neighborhoods and fighting against sky high rent increases to push out businesses. This is not to say we should ignore building more affordable housing.
Case in point: The Castro Theater, arguably the most legendary movie theater in the city, got new a new promotional marketing business overseeing the theater that is not liked by the wider moviegoing community and the Castro district. The landlords of the building have been working to push out longtime legacy businesses that have nowhere to go and are crying uncle to city government to do something about this.
If we're just looking nationally, "neighborhood preservation" (which as an aside is a term I despise) and "high rent in cities" don't have the same effect as "scary homeless people" and "socialism!!!"
I can’t comment elsewhere nationally outside of the Bay Area but neighborhood preservation is not in my view about being NIMBY where you stop any change period. As a native San Franciscan, to me it’s about equity and a healthy economy instead of saying stop this, stop that.
I am specifically referring to the little guy small business that is aiming to thrive and the owners and employees don’t aim to be billionaires. It’s about living the American dream, providing for family and being a good steward of the community you operate in.
Additionally, arts and entertainment businesses are really having a hard time in cities like Berkeley. One proposal by theater owners has been to push a local property tax increase to fund a local performing arts theater. Plus, arts schools are being hit hard. California College of The Arts just got acquired by Vanderbilt University as it was faced with declining enrollment.
You really can’t preserve every building in a city. If an old Victorian building deemed to be problematic from a preservation standpoint due to corrosion makes way for more housing, I am going to say the new housing would make sense in this case.
I really don't want neighborhood preservation to be used as a weapon by NIMBYs to make it all about a "my way or the high way" approach to stop development of all kinds. In certain cases, you can't save every small business but in other cases, city government can work to provide better conditions for small businesses that need it the most. For arts and entertainment venues, I'm far more concerned about them, not just because I happen to have a film studies degree.
It's the culture of landlords and property manager influence that I'm mainly being critical of. State Senator Jesse Arreguin, who used to be Mayor of Berkeley for two years, had as Mayor embraced the YIMBY ideals in getting more housing created (especially affordable and homeless housing) but also pointed out there's awareness that the YIMBY movement needs to be more pro-tenant.
I would put the NIMBY vs. YIMBY philosophy debate aside in this case as it's not so black and white with happened with the Castro Theater development. Years back, there was a hearing on it by the Board of Supervisors and the development was lengthy for some time.
The Castro Theater itself was in no danger of being torn down as it's had landmark status for decades. That said, for the development of the new promotional marketing team, Another Planet Entertainment (which oversees programming at the Greek Theater and the Fillmore), moderate Supervisors in San Francisco were for saving the Castro Theater with this team in place. Progressive Supervisors were siding with the wider film community and Castro district residents on preserving the theater as a non-profit like the Roxie Theater in the Mission and ensuring it would have regular film programming like it's always had. Another Planet Entertainment has said there's no way to make the Castro Theater programming like it used to given the economy but the Roxie Theater has proven otherwise. Same with Alamo Drafthouse in its acquisition of the New Mission and completely transforming the long-dormant theater into a new lively regular film screening theater.
Moderates really pissed off preservationists here because it was clear the Castro Theater could be saved in its original form and they chose not to do this. Instead, they took the convenient pro-business approach where they deferred everything to Another Planet Entertainment and didn't do enough due diligence on their part. The landlords, the Nasser family, were the ones that were the biggest roadblock as several small businesses were on the same property as the Castro Theater. They have been pressured to close down because the Nassers want Another Planet Entertainment in and to expand the Castro Theater without the businesses intact. This is why these long-time small businesses have been crying uncle at the Nasser family and calling for city government to act.
The legendary Harvey's, the longtime gay bar named after Harvey Milk, was in operation for decades until COVID-19 closed it. It has been vacant for a few years now but I don't see the many moderate supervisors working to bring back a legacy business like this. Certainly, there are more pressing and immediate priorities like housing, crime, safety, etc. but Harvey's as a name brand is quite important for the gay community in the city.
On the other hand, former District 2 Superisor Catherine Stefani, is a YIMBY like former SF Mayor London Breed, Scott Weiner, etc. but fought hard to get the Clay Theater in the Upper Fillmore preserved. Now there are plans to turn it into a regular film screening venue thanks to the help of a native San Franciscan billionaire investor.
Also, I think YIMBYs are evolving in a way but it depends on the issue at hand. District 3 Supervisor Danny Souter, who represents the Lower Nob Hill, has received complaints from merchants and residents who are pointing out this neighborhood, right next to the Tenderloin, as a result of the neighborhood getting too much of the homeless housing and the rest of the neighorhoods not stepping up. Souter has acknowledged this and last I checked is working to try to address this.
Just fyi, one of the issues that that "clown" Chesa Boudin ran on was eliminating cash bail, the same and sole achievement that Robert Peters in IL-2 is running on and people here are saying makes him the best candidate for Congress. (Maybe not you, Mike. Don't remember if you've weighed in on IL-2).
In Chesa Boudin's case, he may have run on ending cash bail, but one thing he definitely didn't run on was "Shoplifting? Meh. Just don't take too much". His lackadaisical attitude toward that and other quality of life offenses not only resulted in his recall but helped set back criminal justice reform statewide and nationally.
I just thought the clown remark was unfair. In large part, Boudin was trying to address the overincarceration of people of color, particularly Black men, that was brought about by policies like 3-strikes-and-you're-out. The recall was led by rich anti-vax neolibs for whom that overincarceration may not have been their goal, but who were indifferent to it nonetheless.
While you haven't weighed in on IL-2, I was just pointing out that there's a lot of support for Peters here, and no cash bail is the sole thing he's accomplished in the IL state senate since he got appointed in 2019. He can be impressive when he's asking for your vote, but if you ask him for support, he's much less impressive. It's unfortunate that AIPAC, crypto, and AI folks have all chosen his opponents to back because it covers up his many shortcomings.
Still waiting of Election day before drawing too broad conclusions. Trump's been hitting the anti-early vote rhetoric pretty hard, so that has to be at least something of a factor.
Well, I fear my wife will not push me down the stairs so as to put me into a coma until March 4th. In the meantime, Kamala Harris, last seen losing Texas by the worst margin in over a decade, has weighed in to endorse Crockett.
I am going to be a poll denier. I don’t care how irrational it is, I’ll own it. I will choose to be optimistic. It’s humorous to me that there are two primaries on Tuesday that could determine nominees in two key Senate races. In one of them, we have a popular former Governor who seems to be on a glide path to the Senate. In Texas, we potentially have the opportunity of a lifetime and we might squander it. I refuse to believe we will.
They think we're weak because we can't get anything done not because we dont call people a$$holes. I dont care if people talk shit on Twitter or committee hearings, can they pass meaningful legislation that affects people's lives for the better?
I’m uninterested in pissing away Senate seats and gubernatorial races that we cannot afford to lose just because of some rabble rousers being perceived as “fighters.” You can’t “fight” if you don’t win the general election. The MAGA/establishment divide in Republican primaries is not something we should want in our primaries if it results in the same effect of throwing races left and right.
If one knows anything about sales, one of the main things is you cannot be seen by the customer as being unenthusiastic about what you are selling. You cannot be shy about its price, its value, or that buying it is a good idea. If you don't believe in the thing, why on earth should they?
Democrats who run away from core Democratic principles (Pro Choice, pro Environment, Tax the rich, pro Rule of Law, pro Accountability for ICE/Epstein, pro Immigrant, Pro Union, Pro Working Class) to try to appeal to more moderate or GOP voters give off the same vibe. They don't believe in what their party is selling..even when it is a good thing. Look at how Dems ran AWAY from the ACA after it passed, and got crushed.
I am not saying Talarico is guilty of this kind of stuff. But I am saying that many people feel powerless these days. And candidates that stick their chests out and fight FOR something, that demonstrate they believe in what they are fighting for..have an appeal. Especially if they can convince that voter they will fight just as hard for THEM.
Nobody wants wishy-washy on their side.
Now, Crockett is certainly flawed in some ways as a candidate. And I think she is kinda too corporate, but the fight covers up a lot of warts. Kinda like Gavin Newsom.
IDK if she will win, in the primary or in the general. Talarico is a VERY good candidate, and either Dem will be an underdog. Has a Dem in Texas won statewide since...Ann Richards?
But it is certainly not crazy to think she could. In polling, she is only a point or two behind Talarico vs the GOP. And doing something different when you haven't won conventionally in 30 years seems reasonable to me.
Also a Talarico supporter, and I've been wondering myself if Crockett could ultimately win in a general anyway. Trump's base is the least enthusiastic it's been in some time, if ever. Live or die MAGAs like Laura Loomer are starting to become disenchanted with Trump.
I don't think Crockett would win because of her own strategy. I think she'd win because the Republicans don't realize how despised and unpopular they've become. (Easy to do when you solely consume MAGA media and think everything is fine.)
Crockett has made it clear that she doesn’t think she needs to win over any Republican voters to win a general election. The math ain’t mathing on that one.
Unlike Platner, her comments on Trump voters suffering from mental illnesses, some white men being mediocre and some Latinos having a slave mentality are not baked into the electorate. Add her throwing out journalists from her events to that.
When you mentioned a presidential landslide, I figured you were talking about Obama, but I thought of Johnson, the last Democratic presidential candidate to have a true landslide.
Harris is such a disappointment. She could've easily been our next California governor. Every other serious Dem. candidate would've withdrawn for her. And she likely would've glided to a comfortable victory.
(And as a nice bonus, we wouldn't have the currently looming top-two lockout predicament)
Instead, she authors a self-serving book and she endorses Crockett in TX.
I have confidence this won't move the needle, since the EV period is over, the KHive type voters were behind Crockett anyway, and the ED vote will favor anti-establishment progressives like Talarico over corporate favorites like Crockett.
Maybe if Harris really wanted to move the needle for Crockett she would or should have done more and done it earlier. A robocall at this point feels somewhat perfunctory, though she of course didn't actually have to do anything at all.
Kamala Harris, Angela Alsobrooks, Cardi B, Ayanna Pressley, Collin Allred, Nina Turner and KHive are her biggest endorsements. It's not racist to point this out.
They don't share similar ideologies or philosophies. Harris is Harris, Pressley is a Warrenite and Squad, Cardi B and Turner were big Bernie boosters and Allred is a suburban moderate.
"2) People don't care whether she can win or not, and look solely at her race and gender"
That said, this doesn't really seem relevant to Kildere53's question. The question wasn't "why do people support Crockett?", it was "are her supporters aware that she can't win the general election?".
Nina Turner continues to make it clear she doesn't care too much about people actually getting elected to do good work, and would rather either be picky and not vote or get in and support someone terrible.
It's like when you agree almost completely with someone but they express your views in such an annoying way you can't help but not like them. That's how I feel about her.
Don't go down the stairs! I have experience. It hurts. Go to a national park and avoid the news until Tuesday night. Less pain. Less craziness. Lots of stress reduction.
I really hope Talarico and Paxton win (and Paxton in a May run-off). But if it's Crockett, who knows what can happen in a wave year?
I'm in NC not TX, but I thought unaffiliated voters (or whatever they call them in TX) could vote in the primaries in TX just like they can in NC.
That has always struck me as leaving a huge gap with respect to polling with respect to assigning likely voters to the ballot they will be voting - especially if there are polarizing candidates. With the generally low turnout for midterm primaries, I think it is anyone's guess who will end up in the general election in TX. And on the GOP side, that might not be known until after a primary run-off which would be scheduled in late May.
🤞🏻that Roy Cooper has a smooth glide path in the NC Democratic primary. Plus, unlike TX, winning 50% of the vote isn't necessary in NC to stave off a runoff. IIRC, it is either 30 or 35% and happens rarely.
Something I worked on in the past couple of weeks and months with not much practical purpose: A sort of Congressional directory showcasing basic information about members and their districts.
EDIT: Reading the names of the Reps who each Rep succeeded/defeated/etc., it's funny the names you don't hear anymore. I haven't heard the name Louie Gohmert in some time. (Considering how insane Gohmert was, maybe that's for the better.)
With primary day coming up on Tuesday, I'm interested in the following:
- TX-SEN, GOP and Dem: This one goes without saying. Like probably everyone else here, I am watching anxiously to see if Talarico beats Crockett, if the GOP side goes to a runoff, etc.
- NC-SD-26: Like our fellow poster MPC (if I'm getting the poster right), I am curious to see if Phil Berger can survive his MAGA challenge. Neither of them are great but Berger has done lasting damage to his state, so Berger losing would be no loss to me.
- NC-04: The first major primary test of the cycle, and another one that's heavily watched. Can Allam beat Foushee? Will the late money surge have an effect? I really hope Allam can pull it off. The party needs to change, and this is an early opportunity.
- TX-18: The Christian Menefee/Al Green showdown. I'm concerned that Menefee (if I remember correctly) has started taking crypto donations. I also, however, believe in generational change. The crypto donations have me controversially personally rooting for Green, but honestly either could win IMO and I'd be OK.
- TX-33: This is the Johnson-Allred-Hafeez race. With the fighting between Allred and Johnson turning ugly, I'm hoping for Hafeez to pull off a progressive mega-upset (highly unlikely), or at the very least Johnson beating Allred (who I do not like, sadly also not likely). We'll see who wins.
- Harris County Judge: No one is talking about this race. The leader in the Dem primary, Annise Parker, is to outgoing incumbent Lina Hidalgo's right -- and Hidalgo/the left are backing a different candidate, Houston City Councillor Letitia Plummer. I'm rooting for Plummer myself, but this will be an interesting race to watch.
- TX-Agriculture Commissioner: Another overlooked race. The incumbent, Sid Miller, is so nuts, a notable GOP challenger has emerged. Will Miller survive? I'll be curious to watch this one.
- NC State primaries: All the "Dems" who voted against Stein who have primaries. Hope the challengers can win. Also a bit concerned about Rodney Pierce, a progressive State Rep. who is being challenged by the guy he unseated, Michael Wray. I hope to God Wray doesn't return -- he could join the Veto Caucus of anti-Stein Dems.
Those are the big ones for me. When the IL primary comes up I'll list the ones I'm curious about there.
Oh, and I cannot recommend Bolts Magazine enough -- they are a fantastic news source focused on downballot in-the-woods races. They also do roundups each month of elections worth watching -- I consulted the March one for help in writing this comment, actually.
TX-Sen: I predict a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton, with the latter clinching the nomination in May. I feel Hunt will perform better than expected and the race will truly be a 3-way. Not sure what to say about the Democrats. It'll either be close or a blowout. Like most people here, I would vote for Talarico.
NC-SD-26: Hoping that Berger goes down, but it's kind of David vs. Goliath. I imagine if Page loses, he'll join the administration.
NC-4: Hoping Allam clinches the nomination given the new makeup of the district favoring more minorities. Foushee is getting up there in age, and, as you said, is taking a lot of money from shady organizations in the final days. Since there's no spoiler of Clay Aiken like in 2022, and given the recent populist shift in the Democratic base, I say Allam is a narrow favorite.
TX-18: I agree with you that Green should win re-election. Menefee doesn't feel very progressive to me. Yes, Green is old and a long-serving member, and some of his outbursts can be considered performative, but he is more genuine than the competition.
TX-33: I also hope Hafeez wins, as he's been gaining traction. Not a fan of Johnson or Allred.
Harris County judge: I'd give the nomination to Plummer, considering her support and longtime progressive credentials compared to Parker's advancing age and time out of office.
TX-Agriculture: I think Miller will survive - he was floated as a potential Trump 2.0 agriculture secretary, a much higher position of power, before it went to fellow Texan Brooke Rollins and has a major incumbency advantage.
NC: Yeah, I hope the challengers win and Pierce survives.
I don't think Hafeez is gaining enough traction to break 25% of the vote, his endorsement list is pretty bare and is being dwarfed in fundraising by Allred and Johnson, it's not impossible he'll just barely beat out someone (probably Johnson) but it's unlikely.
Yes, but they are indicators of traction, and Hafeez doesn't seem to have caught national progressive's attentions. Also, zero local endorsements is a more clear indication of a lack of support.
Putting this is as a reply because I forgot it, but I'm additionally curious about TX-23 -- both to see if Tony Gonzales gets primaried by Herrera (likely), and which Dem is in the general to take Herrera on.
I second your recommendation of Bolts Magazine, which I have been following ever since it was launched by Daniel Nichanian (widely known simply as Taniel). It’s terrific – and perfectly complements The Downballot.
Interestingly enough, West Virginia's current governor (the odious Patrick Morissey) ran for Congress in New Jersey in 2000, and West Virginia's 2nd District also sent Maryland carpetbagger Alex Mooney to Congress for five terms.
Fun fact I almost forgot about: Alex Mooney blocked me on Twitter when I mocked him for managing to lose his state Senate seat in Maryland to a Democrat in, of all years, 2010.
Devine managed to be defeated for reelection in 1980, of all years, and Reagan won the district, which had half of Columbus, easily that year. The Democrat who beat him was then defeated by John Kasich in 1982, making the district the only one to flip D in 1980 and then R in 1982, barring flips due to redistricting.
Sam Devine was first elected in 1958, a Democratic wave year, and served until he lost in a Republican one. This countercyclicality continued when the GOP took the seat back in a blue-leaning year.
A more recent analogy might be NE-02, which Republicans have won in every election from 1994 on with the single unlikely exception of 2014. That of course may be about to change this year.
I almost confused TX Land Commissioner for Agriculture Commissioner. Was surprised you weren’t backing Clayton Tucker there. Then I realized both offices exist for some reason in Texas and that Tucker doesn’t have an opponent.
A recent poll from High Point University (very conservative leaning) has Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley in the U.S. Senate race by 51 - 38% among likely voters and 46-41 among registered voters.
Early voting on the Virginia redistricting amendment starts next week and the Virginia Supreme Court still has not acted to lift an injunction that stopped state election officials from carrying out the election.
I fear the GOP aligned justices who makeup a majority of the court may be planning to bail out the Republicans and stop the amendment. Hope I’m wrong but when you have to rely on conservative judges to rule in your favor there should be reason to worry.
I agree. I think they'd be VERY nervous about a TX special election for that seat. Can you imagine how insane it would be if Democrats flipped the Senate by flipping two TX seats?
So they’re going to do our dirty work against Paxton for us? We can’t be this lucky, can we?
What’s a realistic upper-bound prognosis for the Texas legislature if these kinds of numbers hold?
President Masoud Pezeshkian is also missing. It's morbid, but I wouldn't be surprised if they try to retaliate against the US.
Of course they will!
34% of Americans support trump... https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-trump-iran-2026-03-01?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=53n7py&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
It’s a far cry from Iraq 2003
right...but it should be 3.4%
I don't think it's at all clear that getting the U.S. Military into a quagmire would be the -less unpopular- option!
San Francisco is one place where progressives nationally are better off with the moderates prevailing in light of some of the clowns that progressives there elected, such as Chesa Boudin, or the recalled school board members whose main priority appeared to be renaming schools whose names were deemed by activists to be insufficiently "woke".
Oh Christ, enough with the “woke” garbage. Let the GOP keep using that word for everything.
I hear you.
There really should be a different word to apply to those trying to be social justice warriors but are really making fools of themselves.
Being woke on the other hand goes back decades. We had that in Berkeley when the whole city fought for affirmative action. No thanks to Darrell Issa for Prop 209.
Republicans: "Better catatonic than woke!"
Yeah the GOP’s use of the word has become ludicrous. Every time a movie has a woman or black person in it, the world is subjected to a chorus of “woke!” It’s getting ridiculous. (Mind you, I was against the SF school board antics myself — specifically the removal of a mural painted by a literal communist that portrayed George Washington (correctly) as a colonial slaveholder — but the use of the word is out of control IMO.)
On the other hand, moderates in San Francisco don’t exactly have a great track record of neighborhood preservation and ensuring conditions for longtime businesses are strong enough to withstand changing tides in the neighborhoods and fighting against sky high rent increases to push out businesses. This is not to say we should ignore building more affordable housing.
Case in point: The Castro Theater, arguably the most legendary movie theater in the city, got new a new promotional marketing business overseeing the theater that is not liked by the wider moviegoing community and the Castro district. The landlords of the building have been working to push out longtime legacy businesses that have nowhere to go and are crying uncle to city government to do something about this.
If we're just looking nationally, "neighborhood preservation" (which as an aside is a term I despise) and "high rent in cities" don't have the same effect as "scary homeless people" and "socialism!!!"
I can’t comment elsewhere nationally outside of the Bay Area but neighborhood preservation is not in my view about being NIMBY where you stop any change period. As a native San Franciscan, to me it’s about equity and a healthy economy instead of saying stop this, stop that.
I am specifically referring to the little guy small business that is aiming to thrive and the owners and employees don’t aim to be billionaires. It’s about living the American dream, providing for family and being a good steward of the community you operate in.
Additionally, arts and entertainment businesses are really having a hard time in cities like Berkeley. One proposal by theater owners has been to push a local property tax increase to fund a local performing arts theater. Plus, arts schools are being hit hard. California College of The Arts just got acquired by Vanderbilt University as it was faced with declining enrollment.
It’s a real problem.
One other thing I was going to add:
You really can’t preserve every building in a city. If an old Victorian building deemed to be problematic from a preservation standpoint due to corrosion makes way for more housing, I am going to say the new housing would make sense in this case.
You can choose to use a phrase to mean something different from the way it's routinely used, but that makes a muddle out of your words.
Equity perhaps?
I really don't want neighborhood preservation to be used as a weapon by NIMBYs to make it all about a "my way or the high way" approach to stop development of all kinds. In certain cases, you can't save every small business but in other cases, city government can work to provide better conditions for small businesses that need it the most. For arts and entertainment venues, I'm far more concerned about them, not just because I happen to have a film studies degree.
It's the culture of landlords and property manager influence that I'm mainly being critical of. State Senator Jesse Arreguin, who used to be Mayor of Berkeley for two years, had as Mayor embraced the YIMBY ideals in getting more housing created (especially affordable and homeless housing) but also pointed out there's awareness that the YIMBY movement needs to be more pro-tenant.
"moderates in San Francisco don’t exactly have a great track record of neighborhood preservation". Does that mean they're YIMBYs?
I would put the NIMBY vs. YIMBY philosophy debate aside in this case as it's not so black and white with happened with the Castro Theater development. Years back, there was a hearing on it by the Board of Supervisors and the development was lengthy for some time.
The Castro Theater itself was in no danger of being torn down as it's had landmark status for decades. That said, for the development of the new promotional marketing team, Another Planet Entertainment (which oversees programming at the Greek Theater and the Fillmore), moderate Supervisors in San Francisco were for saving the Castro Theater with this team in place. Progressive Supervisors were siding with the wider film community and Castro district residents on preserving the theater as a non-profit like the Roxie Theater in the Mission and ensuring it would have regular film programming like it's always had. Another Planet Entertainment has said there's no way to make the Castro Theater programming like it used to given the economy but the Roxie Theater has proven otherwise. Same with Alamo Drafthouse in its acquisition of the New Mission and completely transforming the long-dormant theater into a new lively regular film screening theater.
Moderates really pissed off preservationists here because it was clear the Castro Theater could be saved in its original form and they chose not to do this. Instead, they took the convenient pro-business approach where they deferred everything to Another Planet Entertainment and didn't do enough due diligence on their part. The landlords, the Nasser family, were the ones that were the biggest roadblock as several small businesses were on the same property as the Castro Theater. They have been pressured to close down because the Nassers want Another Planet Entertainment in and to expand the Castro Theater without the businesses intact. This is why these long-time small businesses have been crying uncle at the Nasser family and calling for city government to act.
The legendary Harvey's, the longtime gay bar named after Harvey Milk, was in operation for decades until COVID-19 closed it. It has been vacant for a few years now but I don't see the many moderate supervisors working to bring back a legacy business like this. Certainly, there are more pressing and immediate priorities like housing, crime, safety, etc. but Harvey's as a name brand is quite important for the gay community in the city.
On the other hand, former District 2 Superisor Catherine Stefani, is a YIMBY like former SF Mayor London Breed, Scott Weiner, etc. but fought hard to get the Clay Theater in the Upper Fillmore preserved. Now there are plans to turn it into a regular film screening venue thanks to the help of a native San Franciscan billionaire investor.
Also, I think YIMBYs are evolving in a way but it depends on the issue at hand. District 3 Supervisor Danny Souter, who represents the Lower Nob Hill, has received complaints from merchants and residents who are pointing out this neighborhood, right next to the Tenderloin, as a result of the neighborhood getting too much of the homeless housing and the rest of the neighorhoods not stepping up. Souter has acknowledged this and last I checked is working to try to address this.
Just fyi, one of the issues that that "clown" Chesa Boudin ran on was eliminating cash bail, the same and sole achievement that Robert Peters in IL-2 is running on and people here are saying makes him the best candidate for Congress. (Maybe not you, Mike. Don't remember if you've weighed in on IL-2).
If the red nose fits...
I've never said anything about Peters and IL-02.
In Chesa Boudin's case, he may have run on ending cash bail, but one thing he definitely didn't run on was "Shoplifting? Meh. Just don't take too much". His lackadaisical attitude toward that and other quality of life offenses not only resulted in his recall but helped set back criminal justice reform statewide and nationally.
I just thought the clown remark was unfair. In large part, Boudin was trying to address the overincarceration of people of color, particularly Black men, that was brought about by policies like 3-strikes-and-you're-out. The recall was led by rich anti-vax neolibs for whom that overincarceration may not have been their goal, but who were indifferent to it nonetheless.
While you haven't weighed in on IL-2, I was just pointing out that there's a lot of support for Peters here, and no cash bail is the sole thing he's accomplished in the IL state senate since he got appointed in 2019. He can be impressive when he's asking for your vote, but if you ask him for support, he's much less impressive. It's unfortunate that AIPAC, crypto, and AI folks have all chosen his opponents to back because it covers up his many shortcomings.
D+27 Harris and D+35 Bexar are crazy. If those were the kind of margins we’d see in a general election, a Dem probably wins statewide.
Still waiting of Election day before drawing too broad conclusions. Trump's been hitting the anti-early vote rhetoric pretty hard, so that has to be at least something of a factor.
You should start your own substack and post it.
I can't imagine there are. I've linked to other people's Substack articles.
Kildere, I would be very interested in reading that! Please message me if you post it somewhere.
Suggestion: if it’s 6500 words, I suggest you break it up into sections topped with different subtitles that reflect the sub-topics.
Well, I fear my wife will not push me down the stairs so as to put me into a coma until March 4th. In the meantime, Kamala Harris, last seen losing Texas by the worst margin in over a decade, has weighed in to endorse Crockett.
I am going to be a poll denier. I don’t care how irrational it is, I’ll own it. I will choose to be optimistic. It’s humorous to me that there are two primaries on Tuesday that could determine nominees in two key Senate races. In one of them, we have a popular former Governor who seems to be on a glide path to the Senate. In Texas, we potentially have the opportunity of a lifetime and we might squander it. I refuse to believe we will.
They think we're weak because we can't get anything done not because we dont call people a$$holes. I dont care if people talk shit on Twitter or committee hearings, can they pass meaningful legislation that affects people's lives for the better?
I’m uninterested in pissing away Senate seats and gubernatorial races that we cannot afford to lose just because of some rabble rousers being perceived as “fighters.” You can’t “fight” if you don’t win the general election. The MAGA/establishment divide in Republican primaries is not something we should want in our primaries if it results in the same effect of throwing races left and right.
If one knows anything about sales, one of the main things is you cannot be seen by the customer as being unenthusiastic about what you are selling. You cannot be shy about its price, its value, or that buying it is a good idea. If you don't believe in the thing, why on earth should they?
Democrats who run away from core Democratic principles (Pro Choice, pro Environment, Tax the rich, pro Rule of Law, pro Accountability for ICE/Epstein, pro Immigrant, Pro Union, Pro Working Class) to try to appeal to more moderate or GOP voters give off the same vibe. They don't believe in what their party is selling..even when it is a good thing. Look at how Dems ran AWAY from the ACA after it passed, and got crushed.
I am not saying Talarico is guilty of this kind of stuff. But I am saying that many people feel powerless these days. And candidates that stick their chests out and fight FOR something, that demonstrate they believe in what they are fighting for..have an appeal. Especially if they can convince that voter they will fight just as hard for THEM.
Nobody wants wishy-washy on their side.
Now, Crockett is certainly flawed in some ways as a candidate. And I think she is kinda too corporate, but the fight covers up a lot of warts. Kinda like Gavin Newsom.
IDK if she will win, in the primary or in the general. Talarico is a VERY good candidate, and either Dem will be an underdog. Has a Dem in Texas won statewide since...Ann Richards?
But it is certainly not crazy to think she could. In polling, she is only a point or two behind Talarico vs the GOP. And doing something different when you haven't won conventionally in 30 years seems reasonable to me.
Also a Talarico supporter, and I've been wondering myself if Crockett could ultimately win in a general anyway. Trump's base is the least enthusiastic it's been in some time, if ever. Live or die MAGAs like Laura Loomer are starting to become disenchanted with Trump.
I don't think Crockett would win because of her own strategy. I think she'd win because the Republicans don't realize how despised and unpopular they've become. (Easy to do when you solely consume MAGA media and think everything is fine.)
Crockett has made it clear that she doesn’t think she needs to win over any Republican voters to win a general election. The math ain’t mathing on that one.
Unlike Platner, her comments on Trump voters suffering from mental illnesses, some white men being mediocre and some Latinos having a slave mentality are not baked into the electorate. Add her throwing out journalists from her events to that.
When you mentioned a presidential landslide, I figured you were talking about Obama, but I thought of Johnson, the last Democratic presidential candidate to have a true landslide.
Same. Obama's win was a comfortable one, not a landslide.
Since 2000 polarization has ensured landslides akin to 1984 are simply impossible.
True, so we shouldn't get carried away with 2008, right?
IDK about that.
You may be about to see one in 2028.
When I imagine a "Trump landslide" I visualize him buried under one!
Fantastic post, and I could not agree more. On every level.
I vote with my head, and if I were in Texas I'd vote Crockett.
I think it's just that they are old friends and Harris owed a favor. Certainly disappointing though and if it costs us a Texas senate seat . . . . .
Harris is such a disappointment. She could've easily been our next California governor. Every other serious Dem. candidate would've withdrawn for her. And she likely would've glided to a comfortable victory.
(And as a nice bonus, we wouldn't have the currently looming top-two lockout predicament)
Instead, she authors a self-serving book and she endorses Crockett in TX.
Meh.
There’s no top 2 lock out looming - unless you think all the undecided Dem voters are going to vote for one of the 2 republicans
I have confidence this won't move the needle, since the EV period is over, the KHive type voters were behind Crockett anyway, and the ED vote will favor anti-establishment progressives like Talarico over corporate favorites like Crockett.
Maybe if Harris really wanted to move the needle for Crockett she would or should have done more and done it earlier. A robocall at this point feels somewhat perfunctory, though she of course didn't actually have to do anything at all.
Kamala Harris, Angela Alsobrooks, Cardi B, Ayanna Pressley, Collin Allred, Nina Turner and KHive are her biggest endorsements. It's not racist to point this out.
They don't share similar ideologies or philosophies. Harris is Harris, Pressley is a Warrenite and Squad, Cardi B and Turner were big Bernie boosters and Allred is a suburban moderate.
What does that mean in this context?
Quoting Kildere53's earlier comment:
"2) People don't care whether she can win or not, and look solely at her race and gender"
That said, this doesn't really seem relevant to Kildere53's question. The question wasn't "why do people support Crockett?", it was "are her supporters aware that she can't win the general election?".
Nina Turner continues to make it clear she doesn't care too much about people actually getting elected to do good work, and would rather either be picky and not vote or get in and support someone terrible.
It's like when you agree almost completely with someone but they express your views in such an annoying way you can't help but not like them. That's how I feel about her.
Harris is ending her "political" career by choice. Good riddance!
Get a grip.
Did she say that?
What makes you say she can't win a statewide election in Texas?
💯
"When Texas goes blue, the nation changes for a generation." – Someone said this
I refuse to believe we'll squander this.
Don't go down the stairs! I have experience. It hurts. Go to a national park and avoid the news until Tuesday night. Less pain. Less craziness. Lots of stress reduction.
I really hope Talarico and Paxton win (and Paxton in a May run-off). But if it's Crockett, who knows what can happen in a wave year?
Yeah, I wouldn’t do that to my family haha. Not to worry, I’m not suicidal. This is just my dark humor coping mechanism.
Assuming James Talarico beats Jasmine Crockett in the primary, the Kamala Harris endorsement might be meant to turn out the black vote.
I'm in NC not TX, but I thought unaffiliated voters (or whatever they call them in TX) could vote in the primaries in TX just like they can in NC.
That has always struck me as leaving a huge gap with respect to polling with respect to assigning likely voters to the ballot they will be voting - especially if there are polarizing candidates. With the generally low turnout for midterm primaries, I think it is anyone's guess who will end up in the general election in TX. And on the GOP side, that might not be known until after a primary run-off which would be scheduled in late May.
🤞🏻that Roy Cooper has a smooth glide path in the NC Democratic primary. Plus, unlike TX, winning 50% of the vote isn't necessary in NC to stave off a runoff. IIRC, it is either 30 or 35% and happens rarely.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Hr_Mw1cv6nWeOn1o3ValkEIMPYSpf9ygkWPXscZtRbo/edit?tab=t.0
Something I worked on in the past couple of weeks and months with not much practical purpose: A sort of Congressional directory showcasing basic information about members and their districts.
Thoughts?
Very interesting. Good work.
EDIT: Reading the names of the Reps who each Rep succeeded/defeated/etc., it's funny the names you don't hear anymore. I haven't heard the name Louie Gohmert in some time. (Considering how insane Gohmert was, maybe that's for the better.)
With primary day coming up on Tuesday, I'm interested in the following:
- TX-SEN, GOP and Dem: This one goes without saying. Like probably everyone else here, I am watching anxiously to see if Talarico beats Crockett, if the GOP side goes to a runoff, etc.
- NC-SD-26: Like our fellow poster MPC (if I'm getting the poster right), I am curious to see if Phil Berger can survive his MAGA challenge. Neither of them are great but Berger has done lasting damage to his state, so Berger losing would be no loss to me.
- NC-04: The first major primary test of the cycle, and another one that's heavily watched. Can Allam beat Foushee? Will the late money surge have an effect? I really hope Allam can pull it off. The party needs to change, and this is an early opportunity.
- TX-18: The Christian Menefee/Al Green showdown. I'm concerned that Menefee (if I remember correctly) has started taking crypto donations. I also, however, believe in generational change. The crypto donations have me controversially personally rooting for Green, but honestly either could win IMO and I'd be OK.
- TX-33: This is the Johnson-Allred-Hafeez race. With the fighting between Allred and Johnson turning ugly, I'm hoping for Hafeez to pull off a progressive mega-upset (highly unlikely), or at the very least Johnson beating Allred (who I do not like, sadly also not likely). We'll see who wins.
- Harris County Judge: No one is talking about this race. The leader in the Dem primary, Annise Parker, is to outgoing incumbent Lina Hidalgo's right -- and Hidalgo/the left are backing a different candidate, Houston City Councillor Letitia Plummer. I'm rooting for Plummer myself, but this will be an interesting race to watch.
- TX-Agriculture Commissioner: Another overlooked race. The incumbent, Sid Miller, is so nuts, a notable GOP challenger has emerged. Will Miller survive? I'll be curious to watch this one.
- NC State primaries: All the "Dems" who voted against Stein who have primaries. Hope the challengers can win. Also a bit concerned about Rodney Pierce, a progressive State Rep. who is being challenged by the guy he unseated, Michael Wray. I hope to God Wray doesn't return -- he could join the Veto Caucus of anti-Stein Dems.
Those are the big ones for me. When the IL primary comes up I'll list the ones I'm curious about there.
Oh, and I cannot recommend Bolts Magazine enough -- they are a fantastic news source focused on downballot in-the-woods races. They also do roundups each month of elections worth watching -- I consulted the March one for help in writing this comment, actually.
https://boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ballot/march-2026-elections-guide/ <-- Their election guide for this month. Check it out.
Excellent list and discussion for Tuesday viewing.
Yeah Allred's behavior has pushed me from meh to actively hoping he loses. He can back Crockett without trashing Talarico.
TX-Sen: I predict a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton, with the latter clinching the nomination in May. I feel Hunt will perform better than expected and the race will truly be a 3-way. Not sure what to say about the Democrats. It'll either be close or a blowout. Like most people here, I would vote for Talarico.
NC-SD-26: Hoping that Berger goes down, but it's kind of David vs. Goliath. I imagine if Page loses, he'll join the administration.
NC-4: Hoping Allam clinches the nomination given the new makeup of the district favoring more minorities. Foushee is getting up there in age, and, as you said, is taking a lot of money from shady organizations in the final days. Since there's no spoiler of Clay Aiken like in 2022, and given the recent populist shift in the Democratic base, I say Allam is a narrow favorite.
TX-18: I agree with you that Green should win re-election. Menefee doesn't feel very progressive to me. Yes, Green is old and a long-serving member, and some of his outbursts can be considered performative, but he is more genuine than the competition.
TX-33: I also hope Hafeez wins, as he's been gaining traction. Not a fan of Johnson or Allred.
Harris County judge: I'd give the nomination to Plummer, considering her support and longtime progressive credentials compared to Parker's advancing age and time out of office.
TX-Agriculture: I think Miller will survive - he was floated as a potential Trump 2.0 agriculture secretary, a much higher position of power, before it went to fellow Texan Brooke Rollins and has a major incumbency advantage.
NC: Yeah, I hope the challengers win and Pierce survives.
I don't think Hafeez is gaining enough traction to break 25% of the vote, his endorsement list is pretty bare and is being dwarfed in fundraising by Allred and Johnson, it's not impossible he'll just barely beat out someone (probably Johnson) but it's unlikely.
I would agree, but I don't think endorsements and fundraising are the top factors of a race's result.
Yes, but they are indicators of traction, and Hafeez doesn't seem to have caught national progressive's attentions. Also, zero local endorsements is a more clear indication of a lack of support.
Putting this is as a reply because I forgot it, but I'm additionally curious about TX-23 -- both to see if Tony Gonzales gets primaried by Herrera (likely), and which Dem is in the general to take Herrera on.
I second your recommendation of Bolts Magazine, which I have been following ever since it was launched by Daniel Nichanian (widely known simply as Taniel). It’s terrific – and perfectly complements The Downballot.
Rick Wilson and his son think the pro-JC polls in TX are hot garbage but say that she could win the primary if she can drive up turnout in Houston.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=70brZWXYp-A
They’re pretty stunned by the EV turnout and Rick thinks this eclipses the turnout for Beto’s 2018 campaign.
Here is who I'm supporting in Tuesday's primaries FWIW:
Governor:
Fred Love (AR)
Gina Hinojosa (TX)
Senate:
Roy Cooper (NC)
Hailee Shoffner (AR)
James Talarico (TX)
House:
Raymond Smith Jr. (NC-3)
Nida Allam (NC-4)
Cyril Jefferson (NC-6)
Richard Ojeda (NC-9)
Jamie Ager (NC-11)
Kate Barr (NC-14) (primary only)
Leticia Gutierrez (TX-9)
Caitlin Rourk (TX-10)
Bobby Pulido (TX-15)
Al Green (TX-18)
Sylvia Garcia (TX-29)
Fred Haynes III (TX-30)
Zeeshan Hafeez (TX-33)
Johnny Garcia (TX-35)
Other statewide offices:
Vikki Goodwin (TX LG)
Nathan Johnson (TX AG)
Sarah Eckhardt (TX Comptroller)
Jose Loya (TX Land Commissioner)
Yep, same dude.
Interestingly enough, West Virginia's current governor (the odious Patrick Morissey) ran for Congress in New Jersey in 2000, and West Virginia's 2nd District also sent Maryland carpetbagger Alex Mooney to Congress for five terms.
Jay Rockefeller, who was elected statewide for some 40 years, was also a carpetbagger.
Rep. Carol Miller is from Huntington, but has roots in eastern Ohio, where her father Sam Devine served in Congress.
Fun fact I almost forgot about: Alex Mooney blocked me on Twitter when I mocked him for managing to lose his state Senate seat in Maryland to a Democrat in, of all years, 2010.
Devine managed to be defeated for reelection in 1980, of all years, and Reagan won the district, which had half of Columbus, easily that year. The Democrat who beat him was then defeated by John Kasich in 1982, making the district the only one to flip D in 1980 and then R in 1982, barring flips due to redistricting.
Sam Devine was first elected in 1958, a Democratic wave year, and served until he lost in a Republican one. This countercyclicality continued when the GOP took the seat back in a blue-leaning year.
A more recent analogy might be NE-02, which Republicans have won in every election from 1994 on with the single unlikely exception of 2014. That of course may be about to change this year.
I almost confused TX Land Commissioner for Agriculture Commissioner. Was surprised you weren’t backing Clayton Tucker there. Then I realized both offices exist for some reason in Texas and that Tucker doesn’t have an opponent.
https://county17.com/2026/02/27/casper-veteran-david-giralt-joins-race-for-wyoming-u-s-house-seat/
WY-AL: David Giralt, a veteran and aide to Sen. Cynthia Lummis, is in as a Republican.
Chuck Gray, Jillian Balow and Reid Rasner are already in; state Sen. Bo Biteman and possibly Gov. Mark Gordon are expected to join.
Wait, Gordon might enter?
He is also considering a 3rd term and senate run
A recent poll from High Point University (very conservative leaning) has Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley in the U.S. Senate race by 51 - 38% among likely voters and 46-41 among registered voters.
https://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/HPU-Poll-119-Memo_A_02262026.pdf
Also has incumbent NC Supreme Court justice Anita Earls leading Sarah Stevens by 49-43 among likely voters and 46-41 among registered voters.
Yes, the actual margin will be narrower.
This is a poll of very likely primary voters. Look at Table 4, only 11% don’t plan to vote in the primary.
Tbh, no value inferred for Nov. Not to mention 2028.
Early voting on the Virginia redistricting amendment starts next week and the Virginia Supreme Court still has not acted to lift an injunction that stopped state election officials from carrying out the election.
I fear the GOP aligned justices who makeup a majority of the court may be planning to bail out the Republicans and stop the amendment. Hope I’m wrong but when you have to rely on conservative judges to rule in your favor there should be reason to worry.
One theory is they wanted to wait to see if voters approved the amendment.
If it would've failed, then it's a moot case and the justices wouldn't have to make an actual decision.
TX-Sen: Republicans leave Friday Corpus Christi event without any endorsement from Trump
Oh, yeah, he also said he could nominate *Sen. Ted Cruz* to the SCOTUS if Alito retires.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-hes-thinking-putting-republican-senator-ted-cruz-supreme-court-2026-02-27/
Trump said this same shit when RBG died in 2020. Mitch shot him down and had him pick ACB instead.
But with Thune, idk, he’d probably indulge Trump on that.
I disagree. Thune seems to be another McConnell. He ain't Mike Johnson.
I agree. I think they'd be VERY nervous about a TX special election for that seat. Can you imagine how insane it would be if Democrats flipped the Senate by flipping two TX seats?
I bet Crockett would run for that too
I guess that would make Texas the new Georgia.
Texas has special elections to fill senate vacancies that don't occur close enough to another general election to merge them in.
Do republicans want to have a special elections for Cruz's seat in 2027?
SC works in winter with a heavy schedule. Ted Cruz can't join the SC because that's when he goes to Cancun.