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anonymouse's avatar

Well, I fear my wife will not push me down the stairs so as to put me into a coma until March 4th. In the meantime, Kamala Harris, last seen losing Texas by the worst margin in over a decade, has weighed in to endorse Crockett.

I am going to be a poll denier. I don’t care how irrational it is, I’ll own it. I will choose to be optimistic. It’s humorous to me that there are two primaries on Tuesday that could determine nominees in two key Senate races. In one of them, we have a popular former Governor who seems to be on a glide path to the Senate. In Texas, we potentially have the opportunity of a lifetime and we might squander it. I refuse to believe we will.

PollJunkie's avatar

💯

"When Texas goes blue, the nation changes for a generation." – Someone said this

I refuse to believe we'll squander this.

Kildere53's avatar

Wait, Harris endorsed Crockett? That's extremely disappointing.

Regarding support for Crockett, is it more that 1) People deny the obvious fact that she can't win a statewide election in Texas, or 2) People don't care whether she can win or not, and look solely at her race and gender (since I haven't seen anyone supporting her for any other reason besides that)?

I'm honestly curious which of those is closer to what's going on.

hilltopper's avatar

I think it's just that they are old friends and Harris owed a favor. Certainly disappointing though and if it costs us a Texas senate seat . . . . .

DM's avatar

Ironically, I recently downloaded Harris's book, "107 Days" to my phone and plan on finishing it this weekend. I only have 2 days before the loan period expires.

While so far, I believe the book is self serving, I believe the media really hyped attacks on Democrats above what she really said and took a lot of things out of context. And this is from somebody who has never been a Harris fan, but have voted for her when the alternative was a Republican.

Guy Cohen's avatar

I have confidence this won't move the needle, since the EV period is over, the KHive type voters were behind Crockett anyway, and the ED vote will favor anti-establishment progressives like Talarico over corporate favorites like Crockett.

PollJunkie's avatar

Kamala Harris, Cardi B, Ayanna Pressley, Collin Allred, Nina Turner and KHive are her biggest endorsements. It's not racist to point this out.

They don't share similar ideologies or philosophies. Harris is Harris, Pressley is a Warrenite and Squad, Cardi B and Turner were big Bernie boosters and Allred is a suburban moderate.

Kildere53's avatar

So basically, you're saying it's #2?

Julius Zinn's avatar

Nina Turner continues to make it clear she doesn't care too much about people actually getting elected to do good work, and would rather either be picky and not vote or get in and support someone terrible.

It's like when you agree almost completely with someone but they express your views in such an annoying way you can't help but not like them. That's how I feel about her.

dragonfire5004's avatar

If I were a Crockett supporter (I’m not), I’d basically argue all of the below:

- That we’ve run establishment, electable candidates for two decades in the state and haven’t won a single election. The only time we got close was in a wave year with a progressive Congress member in Beto. That the path to winning Texas isn’t by trying to appeal to the middle and moderate Republican, but instead to get nonvoters to surge to the polls by revving our potential base to be fired up and outvote the opposition, instead of trying to win them over.

- I’d also say if I supported her that the only Democratic president to be elected in a landslide did a lot of things in his campaign that back then were mocked by punditry because of how campaigns were supposed to be run. Then he won and those formerly criticized campaign decisions became viewed as ingenious and a part of every future campaign on both sides of the aisle.

- There’s something to say about a Democratic black female fighter rising star politician having no campaign manager, having little ground game organization, being outraised 3 to 1, while Talarico is having massive campaign turnout rallies and still she’s in a fight to win the nomination. This race should be a 60-30 blowout, but it isn’t. We should be considering why. After all, we thought Trump’s unconventional, bizarre campaign couldn’t win in America, twice, and were wrong.

I don’t believe that to be true fwiw, but I also acknowledge that in such a massive state as Texas, which usually has lower turnout compared to other states, it could be true during an election where the other side has an unenthusiastic base, Trump is President and it’s a terrible economy. It’s also true that half of the primary voters who’ve voted already haven’t voted in a Democratic primary, so that 500k new voters are trying out our party primary for the first time.

You can argue it’s Talarico doing it, but I think supporters of Crockett would say she’s the first Democrat running for the nomination as her kind of brash, no holds barred base revving politician, so it’s more likely Crockett who is bringing them out. Which actually sounds almost exactly like the person currently president who was elected twice by Republicans. Their party never moves to the middle or compromises, yet they win a ton of elections, perhaps we should be following their lead if we want to win today.

Should we admit how often they’ve beat us with candidates so far out of the mainstream, 10 years ago it would’ve cost them the election? They do it by always exciting their base and always attacking the left as radical socialists. Maybe this Trump method to win (base first and make your opponent look unacceptable and out of touch) is how to do it in a modern political campaign. If we had a guarantee of a win in November, would Democrats pick Talarico over Crockett? Not likely. The head says Talarico, the heart says Crockett.

Finally, the biggest flaw of our party in polling is not that we’re too progressive (40%), it’s that we’re viewed as weak (70%). One thing you can absolutely say for certain regardless of her flaws, bombthrowing and what you think of her: she’s not weak, she’s a fighter, even critics will acknowledge that. I actually think I’m one of the few here that believes either Democratic candidate could beat Cornyn or Paxton, but we’ll find out in a few days in any case.

Kevin H.'s avatar

They think we're weak because we can't get anything done not because we dont call people a$$holes. I dont care if people talk shit on Twitter or committee hearings, can they pass meaningful legislation that affects people's lives for the better?

hilltopper's avatar

Don't go down the stairs! I have experience. It hurts. Go to a national park and avoid the news until Tuesday night. Less pain. Less craziness. Lots of stress reduction.

I really hope Talarico and Paxton win (and Paxton in a May run-off). But if it's Crockett, who knows what can happen in a wave year?

anonymouse's avatar

Yeah, I wouldn’t do that to my family haha. Not to worry, I’m not suicidal. This is just my dark humor coping mechanism.

Julius Zinn's avatar

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Hr_Mw1cv6nWeOn1o3ValkEIMPYSpf9ygkWPXscZtRbo/edit?tab=t.0

Something I worked on in the past couple of weeks and months with not much practical purpose: A sort of Congressional directory showcasing basic information about members and their districts.

Thoughts?

Techno00's avatar

With primary day coming up on Tuesday, I'm interested in the following:

- TX-SEN, GOP and Dem: This one goes without saying. Like probably everyone else here, I am watching anxiously to see if Talarico beats Crockett, if the GOP side goes to a runoff, etc.

- NC-SD-26: Like our fellow poster MPC (if I'm getting the poster right), I am curious to see if Phil Berger can survive his MAGA challenge. Neither of them are great but Berger has done lasting damage to his state, so Berger losing would be no loss to me.

- NC-04: The first major primary test of the cycle, and another one that's heavily watched. Can Allam beat Foushee? Will the late money surge have an effect? I really hope Allam can pull it off. The party needs to change, and this is an early opportunity.

- TX-18: The Christian Menefee/Al Green showdown. I'm concerned that Menefee (if I remember correctly) has started taking crypto donations. I also, however, believe in generational change. The crypto donations have me controversially personally rooting for Green, but honestly either could win IMO and I'd be OK.

- TX-33: This is the Johnson-Allred-Hafeez race. With the fighting between Allred and Johnson turning ugly, I'm hoping for Hafeez to pull off a progressive mega-upset (highly unlikely), or at the very least Johnson beating Allred (who I do not like, sadly also not likely). We'll see who wins.

- Harris County Judge: No one is talking about this race. The leader in the Dem primary, Annise Parker, is to outgoing incumbent Lina Hidalgo's right -- and Hidalgo/the left are backing a different candidate, Houston City Councillor Letitia Plummer. I'm rooting for Plummer myself, but this will be an interesting race to watch.

- TX-Agriculture Commissioner: Another overlooked race. The incumbent, Sid Miller, is so nuts, a notable GOP challenger has emerged. Will Miller survive? I'll be curious to watch this one.

- NC State primaries: All the "Dems" who voted against Stein who have primaries. Hope the challengers can win. Also a bit concerned about Rodney Pierce, a progressive State Rep. who is being challenged by the guy he unseated, Michael Wray. I hope to God Wray doesn't return -- he could join the Veto Caucus of anti-Stein Dems.

Those are the big ones for me. When the IL primary comes up I'll list the ones I'm curious about there.

Oh, and I cannot recommend Bolts Magazine enough -- they are a fantastic news source focused on downballot in-the-woods races. They also do roundups each month of elections worth watching -- I consulted the March one for help in writing this comment, actually.

https://boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ballot/march-2026-elections-guide/ <-- Their election guide for this month. Check it out.

hilltopper's avatar

Excellent list and discussion for Tuesday viewing.

Avedee Eikew's avatar

Yeah Allred's behavior has pushed me from meh to actively hoping he loses. He can back Crockett without trashing Talarico.

Julius Zinn's avatar

TX-Sen: I predict a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton, with the latter clinching the nomination in May. I feel Hunt will perform better than expected and the race will truly be a 3-way. Not sure what to say about the Democrats. It'll either be close or a blowout. Like most people here, I would vote for Talarico.

NC-SD-26: Hoping that Berger goes down, but it's kind of David vs. Goliath. I imagine if Page loses, he'll join the administration.

NC-4: Hoping Allam clinches the nomination given the new makeup of the district favoring more minorities. Foushee is getting up there in age, and, as you said, is taking a lot of money from shady organizations in the final days. Since there's no spoiler of Clay Aiken like in 2022, and given the recent populist shift in the Democratic base, I say Allam is a narrow favorite.

TX-18: I agree with you that Green should win re-election. Menefee doesn't feel very progressive to me. Yes, Green is old and a long-serving member, and some of his outbursts can be considered performative, but he is more genuine than the competition.

TX-33: I also hope Hafeez wins, as he's been gaining traction. Not a fan of Johnson or Allred.

Harris County judge: I'd give the nomination to Plummer, considering her support and longtime progressive credentials compared to Parker's advancing age and time out of office.

TX-Agriculture: I think Miller will survive - he was floated as a potential Trump 2.0 agriculture secretary, a much higher position of power, before it went to fellow Texan Brooke Rollins and has a major incumbency advantage.

NC: Yeah, I hope the challengers win and Pierce survives.

Techno00's avatar
2hEdited

Putting this is as a reply because I forgot it, but I'm additionally curious about TX-23 -- both to see if Tony Gonzales gets primaried by Herrera (likely), and which Dem is in the general to take Herrera on.

Kildere53's avatar

Today is one of those times when I wish The Downballot had a feature similar to what DKE had, where commenters like us could write articles that would show up in a sidebar on the home page.

The reason I'm thinking about this is because I recently finished my project about the Israeli election in 2022. I was going to post a comment about it to share some of my findings, but quickly realized that, in order to share everything interesting I discovered about Israel's political geography from that election, my comment would be closer to the length of an entire article.

Over the past few days, I've written everything I want to say about it, and it came about to be roughly 6,500 words. To put that in perspective, that's 11 pages, of single-spaced font 12 text, in MS Word. I'd love to share it with everyone here - I guarantee you'll learn more about Israeli political geography than you ever thought possible. However, I'm not entirely sure how to share it since The Downballot doesn't allow users to post diaries.

Any thoughts?

Jay's avatar

You should start your own substack and post it.

Kildere53's avatar

That's a good idea, but just to confirm, are there any rules here about posting links to articles we wrote in our own substack?

MPC's avatar

Rick Wilson and his son think the pro-JC polls in TX are hot garbage but say that she could win the primary if she can drive up turnout in Houston.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=70brZWXYp-A

They’re pretty stunned by the EV turnout and Rick thinks this eclipses the turnout for Beto’s 2018 campaign.

Julius Zinn's avatar

Here is who I'm supporting in Tuesday's primaries FWIW:

Governor:

Fred Love (AR)

Gina Hinojosa (TX)

Senate:

Roy Cooper (NC)

Hailee Shoffner (AR)

James Talarico (TX)

House:

Raymond Smith Jr. (NC-3)

Nida Allam (NC-4)

Cyril Jefferson (NC-6)

Richard Ojeda (NC-9)

Jamie Ager (NC-11)

Kate Barr (NC-14) (primary only)

Leticia Gutierrez (TX-9)

Caitlin Rourk (TX-10)

Bobby Pulido (TX-15)

Al Green (TX-18)

Sylvia Garcia (TX-29)

Fred Haynes III (TX-30)

Zeeshan Hafeez (TX-33)

Johnny Garcia (TX-35)

Other statewide offices:

Vikki Goodwin (TX LG)

Nathan Johnson (TX AG)

Sarah Eckhardt (TX Comptroller)

Jose Loya (TX Land Commissioner)

Kildere53's avatar

Is that the same Richard Ojeda who ran for Congress in West Virginia?

I thought it was only Republicans moving to Fort Myers who did stuff like that.

Brad Warren's avatar

Yep, same dude.

Interestingly enough, West Virginia's current governor (the odious Patrick Morissey) ran for Congress in New Jersey in 2000, and West Virginia's 2nd District also sent Maryland carpetbagger Alex Mooney to Congress for five terms.

Julius Zinn's avatar

Jay Rockefeller, who was elected statewide for some 40 years, was also a carpetbagger.

Rep. Carol Miller is from Huntington, but has roots in eastern Ohio, where her father Sam Devine served in Congress.

Brad Warren's avatar

Fun fact I almost forgot about: Alex Mooney blocked me on Twitter when I mocked him for managing to lose his state Senate seat in Maryland to a Democrat in, of all years, 2010.

anonymouse's avatar

I almost confused TX Land Commissioner for Agriculture Commissioner. Was surprised you weren’t backing Clayton Tucker there. Then I realized both offices exist for some reason in Texas and that Tucker doesn’t have an opponent.

Julius Zinn's avatar

https://county17.com/2026/02/27/casper-veteran-david-giralt-joins-race-for-wyoming-u-s-house-seat/

WY-AL: David Giralt, a veteran and aide to Sen. Cynthia Lummis, is in as a Republican.

Chuck Gray, Jillian Balow and Reid Rasner are already in; state Sen. Bo Biteman and possibly Gov. Mark Gordon are expected to join.

Guy Cohen's avatar

Wait, Gordon might enter?

Julius Zinn's avatar

He is also considering a 3rd term and senate run

MPC's avatar
2hEdited

A recent poll from High Point University (very conservative leaning) has Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley in the U.S. Senate race by 51 - 38% among likely voters and 46-41 among registered voters.

https://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/HPU-Poll-119-Memo_A_02262026.pdf

Also has incumbent NC Supreme Court justice Anita Earls leading Sarah Stevens by 49-43 among likely voters and 46-41 among registered voters.

derkmc's avatar

Early voting on the Virginia redistricting amendment starts next week and the Virginia Supreme Court still has not acted to lift an injunction that stopped state election officials from carrying out the election.

I fear the GOP aligned justices who makeup a majority of the court may be planning to bail out the Republicans and stop the amendment. Hope I’m wrong but when you have to rely on conservative judges to rule in your favor there should be reason to worry.

Kildere53's avatar

I get your point, but the justices already had one chance to stop the amendment and chose not to do so. If they were going to stop it, why would they wait until the second try?

Julius Zinn's avatar

TX-Sen: Republicans leave Friday Corpus Christi event without any endorsement from Trump

Oh, yeah, he also said he could nominate *Sen. Ted Cruz* to the SCOTUS if Alito retires.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-hes-thinking-putting-republican-senator-ted-cruz-supreme-court-2026-02-27/

Paleo's avatar

Democrats Should Launch a “Nuremberg Caucus” to Investigate the Crimes of the Trump Regime

https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/democrats-nuremberg-caucus-trump-administration-crimes/

Julius Zinn's avatar

Yes, they should