Likely but cautious indicators suggest the replacement government will still be better than Assad's reign of terror (but still so many unknowns at this point).
The Syrian Salvation Government, which is what HTS set up in Iblib, so far has been rather moderate and technocratic, though certainly still with an authoritarian bent. The real question is if they consolidate power will that change?
Yeah, like how Fidel Castro lied about how his motivations were to set up a proper Cuban national government only to end up making it Communist with him on top for life. In short, there needs to be a multi-lateral effort to shape whatever post-Assad government or else it could land on neo-ISIS.
One of IranтАЩs many tragedies was that Ayatollah Khomeini was succeeded by Khamenei, rather than the far-more-moderate and peaceful Ayatollah Montazeri, who was initially designated as successor.
I think we have to go further back than than 1978 fire. The 1953 coup against IranтАЩs democratically-elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, instigated by the CIA at the request of the UK and the company that became British Petroleum, should never have happened.
I think that was more complicated than that. Britain set up a boycott until they got recompense for their oil infrastructure that Mossadegh nationalized (and not its return). The US helped broker negotiations, Mossadegh seemed receptive, but then made counter-offers that the UK would never accept (e.g. 25% flat royalties). The US even offered to advance Iran $130 million to be paid back in petroleum deliveries. The hemming and hawing, in the meantime, was risking the global oil trade and the political and economic situation in Iran was teetering.
Mossadegh was going to get couped or shot before long by somebody considering how things were unraveling in Iran in the early 1950s - the CIA did not spend much on Ajax for a reason.
That said, considering its echoes today, it was really dumb/bad in hindsight to get involved in a British dispute like that at all
Yeah, the UK should have cut their losses and settled for a flat profit share until 1999 (when the contract with Iran was set to expire), but Mossadegh was also being a pain, moving the goal posts and putting on bravado to make him look strong.
In fairness, MossadeghтАЩs lionization skims over his anti-democratic tendencies but he was in a really poor position. He could anger foreign elements or his nationalist base and had he taken the UKтАЩs deal
HeтАЩd probably have been pushed out by his base. Damned if he did. Damned if he didnтАЩt
Mossadegh also was on shaky ground and facing snowballing backlash at home. This was also experienced later by Shah Pahlavi, but his issues were further compounded by his notorious indeciveness.
If Bashar al-Assad and his murderous crime family is overthrown, and the HTS & allies consolidate power, then it will be much harder for Iran to supply missiles and other weapons to Hezbollah. That in itself is positive for the region!
Moreover, with Hezbollah militarily and politically weakened, and with less interference by Syria in Lebanese politics, there is at least some chance that this fractious country may once again have functioning government and begin to heal.
High time for Tulsi to pay Bashar another visit. In fact, I suggest an extended stay with him in his new family home in Moscow. IтАЩd gladly contribute to a one-way ticket.
Considering it's the Druze-led "Southern Operation Room" and US-backed "Revolutionary Commando Army" that are closing in on Damascus, a Sunni theocracy seems rather unlikely in the immediate term. I am cautiously optimistic that the Syrian people will build a positive future for themselves post-Assad, but obviously tyranny by new rulers or continued civil war are both possible.
Could it be that these fighting forces are in a hurry to overthrow the Russian-supported regime of al-Assad, before the Putin-friendly Trump is inaugurated?
I think the timing has much more to do with cease fire between Hezbollah and Israel, than the incoming Donald. They struck before Hezbollah had a chance to regroup and redeploy in Syria.
Maybe. The Alawites will retreat to their stronghold on the coast and fight to the last man if they get even a whiff of that. Likeliest we have a new wrinkle of the civil war rather than an ending
It's possible some sort of federated Syria could emerge with the (already-existing) Kurdish autonomous zone in the North, a Druze one in the South and an Alawite one on the coast, but I agree that continued fighting is the more likely outcome.
Liberated for what? A theocratic Sunni regime?
Likely but cautious indicators suggest the replacement government will still be better than Assad's reign of terror (but still so many unknowns at this point).
The Syrian Salvation Government, which is what HTS set up in Iblib, so far has been rather moderate and technocratic, though certainly still with an authoritarian bent. The real question is if they consolidate power will that change?
Yeah, like how Fidel Castro lied about how his motivations were to set up a proper Cuban national government only to end up making it Communist with him on top for life. In short, there needs to be a multi-lateral effort to shape whatever post-Assad government or else it could land on neo-ISIS.
WeтАЩll see. The Iranian Revolution wasnтАЩt inherently theocratic in 1978 and Khomeini was saying all the right things too
One of IranтАЩs many tragedies was that Ayatollah Khomeini was succeeded by Khamenei, rather than the far-more-moderate and peaceful Ayatollah Montazeri, who was initially designated as successor.
Long long list of tragedies in that country since the Cinema Rex burned down
I think we have to go further back than than 1978 fire. The 1953 coup against IranтАЩs democratically-elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, instigated by the CIA at the request of the UK and the company that became British Petroleum, should never have happened.
I think that was more complicated than that. Britain set up a boycott until they got recompense for their oil infrastructure that Mossadegh nationalized (and not its return). The US helped broker negotiations, Mossadegh seemed receptive, but then made counter-offers that the UK would never accept (e.g. 25% flat royalties). The US even offered to advance Iran $130 million to be paid back in petroleum deliveries. The hemming and hawing, in the meantime, was risking the global oil trade and the political and economic situation in Iran was teetering.
Mossadegh was going to get couped or shot before long by somebody considering how things were unraveling in Iran in the early 1950s - the CIA did not spend much on Ajax for a reason.
That said, considering its echoes today, it was really dumb/bad in hindsight to get involved in a British dispute like that at all
Yeah, the UK should have cut their losses and settled for a flat profit share until 1999 (when the contract with Iran was set to expire), but Mossadegh was also being a pain, moving the goal posts and putting on bravado to make him look strong.
In fairness, MossadeghтАЩs lionization skims over his anti-democratic tendencies but he was in a really poor position. He could anger foreign elements or his nationalist base and had he taken the UKтАЩs deal
HeтАЩd probably have been pushed out by his base. Damned if he did. Damned if he didnтАЩt
ItтАЩs not complicated at all. He was overthrown by the U.S. and the U.K. End of story.
Mossadegh also was on shaky ground and facing snowballing backlash at home. This was also experienced later by Shah Pahlavi, but his issues were further compounded by his notorious indeciveness.
With the CIA being the catalyst of quite a bit of that backlash.
It will certainly be a big blow to Russia and Iran.
If Bashar al-Assad and his murderous crime family is overthrown, and the HTS & allies consolidate power, then it will be much harder for Iran to supply missiles and other weapons to Hezbollah. That in itself is positive for the region!
Moreover, with Hezbollah militarily and politically weakened, and with less interference by Syria in Lebanese politics, there is at least some chance that this fractious country may once again have functioning government and begin to heal.
Bashar Al-Assad has fled Syria per the Rebels. This is a BFD.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/07/syria-rebels-reach-damascus-bashar-al-assad
Whatever gives Tulsi a sad is great by me.
Yeah, her visit in Syria to meet Bashir Al-Assad was REALLLY helpful. /s
High time for Tulsi to pay Bashar another visit. In fact, I suggest an extended stay with him in his new family home in Moscow. IтАЩd gladly contribute to a one-way ticket.
Considering it's the Druze-led "Southern Operation Room" and US-backed "Revolutionary Commando Army" that are closing in on Damascus, a Sunni theocracy seems rather unlikely in the immediate term. I am cautiously optimistic that the Syrian people will build a positive future for themselves post-Assad, but obviously tyranny by new rulers or continued civil war are both possible.
Druze-led, I presume?
Could it be that these fighting forces are in a hurry to overthrow the Russian-supported regime of al-Assad, before the Putin-friendly Trump is inaugurated?
Yes (edited).
I think the timing has much more to do with cease fire between Hezbollah and Israel, than the incoming Donald. They struck before Hezbollah had a chance to regroup and redeploy in Syria.
Maybe. The Alawites will retreat to their stronghold on the coast and fight to the last man if they get even a whiff of that. Likeliest we have a new wrinkle of the civil war rather than an ending
It's possible some sort of federated Syria could emerge with the (already-existing) Kurdish autonomous zone in the North, a Druze one in the South and an Alawite one on the coast, but I agree that continued fighting is the more likely outcome.
Problem there is Turkey (and maybe even Iraq) are probably not enthused about the idea of a federated state with a Kurdish Piedmont)