I'm returning with my biannual analysis of counties that were pleasant surprises versus those that were unpleasant surprises for Democrats in Election 2024. I had to reformat a bit compared to prior cycles as finding "pleasant surprises" was an impossible task in more states than not no matter how much I twisted myself into a pretzel. Li…
I'm returning with my biannual analysis of counties that were pleasant surprises versus those that were unpleasant surprises for Democrats in Election 2024. I had to reformat a bit compared to prior cycles as finding "pleasant surprises" was an impossible task in more states than not no matter how much I twisted myself into a pretzel. Likewise, limiting myself to one unpleasant surprise per state was also beyond my capabilities in many states. My lists are a little less structured this year but I suspect you'll recognize the format.
Pleasant Surprises
Madison County, Alabama--Even as Alabama's PVI took a sharp right turn, its second largest county (I hadn't realized till now it surpassed Mobile County) barely moved and remained a single-digit Trump county. Given its demographics, I can foresee this county flipping in a strong Democratic cycle.
Saline County, Arkansas--Not sure if its increasing racial diversity or college-educated demographics, but this suburban Little Rock county was the Natural State's only county to shift in Harris's direction since 2020.
Mesa County, Colorado--Western Colorado's blue shift was a nice development overall, led by this population center. If Lauren Boebert had tried to win again in CO-03, I bet Adam Frisch would have beaten her this year.
Larimer County, Colorado--Heavily Hispanic jurisdictions swung to the right this year in Colorado as everywhere else, but at least in Colorado, it was largely offset by numerous population centers like the Fort Collins area with smaller Hispanic populations that trended blue.
Kent County, Delaware--We all remember Christine O'Donnell's 2010 Senate race as a national joke, but she still managed to win the county that's home to Delaware's capital city, which was a tough nut to crack back then. Fast forward to 2024 and Harris, Lisa Blunt Rochester, Sarah McBride, and Matt Meyer all pulled off victories here.
Cobb County, Georgia--If you go back only 10 years, it would have been hard to imagine that the suburban Atlanta county that was home to Newt Gingrich's old Congressional district would not only go for the Democratic Presidential nominee by double digits, but that it would be one of a small percentage of counties nationally that moved toward the Democrats in a difficult cycle.
Paulding County, Georgia--The western suburbs of Atlanta moved the most toward Harris this year, and while this one is still quite red, I don't think it's out of the question that it could flip blue by 2032 given its trendline.
Jackson County, Illinois--After a collapse for Biden in 2020, I figured the home of Carbondale would be a goner in 2024, easily flipping to Trump. Surprisingly, it got a full point bluer.
Hamilton County, Indiana--I know we were all hoping that Indianapolis' most populous suburban county would flip this year but it still moved toward Harris (along with neighboring Boone and Hendricks counties) in a year when not many places did.
Johnson County, Kansas--Again, we all hoped we'd see 2022 Sharice Davids numbers at the Presidential level this year, but the Sunflower State's most populous county still did its part and consolidated more moderate Republicans toward Harris compared to four years ago.
Sagadahoc County, Maine--Coastal Maine held up pretty well for Harris this year, which was less the case in upper New England than I expected. Sagadahoc was one of two counties to perform better for Harris than for Biden, and with or without Susan Collins on the ballot, we'll need it in two years.
Anne Arundel County, Maryland--It wasn't that long ago when this used to be bright red, holding out even for Bob Dole and John McCain. Not only did it go for Harris by double-digits this year, it's also the population core for a Democrat-held Congressional seat in MD-03.
Ottawa County, Michigan--The core of Michigan's Dutch Calvinist population, Ottawa County was the state's most Republican county for decades. It's still pretty bright red but it was the only population center in Michigan trending against Republicans in 2024.
Hennepin County, Minnesota--The city of Minneapolis and three rings of its western suburbs all held nearly as tight for Harris as they did for Biden four years ago, again offsetting Minnesota's red realignment outside of the metro area.
Sarpy County, Nebraska--While it didn't move enough to dump Don Bacon, it was one of four Nebraska counties to go for shadow Democrat Dan Osborn in the Senate race, making it clear that any potential winning Democratic coalition put together in Nebraska would almost certainly include Sarpy County.
Burlington County, New Jersey--In a state that was a dumpster fire for Democrats this year, Burlington County didn't slip as much as most places for Harris and native son Andy Kim improved upon Menendez's winning margin six years ago.
Los Alamos County, New Mexico--I'm guessing federal employment at the National Laboratory is driving the city/county's blue shift, but it's striking that we're now winning nearly 2-1 in a place that George W. Bush won twice.
Transylvania County, North Carolina--Perhaps the flooding disaster significantly reduced turnout among the more rural jurisdictions of western North Carolina, but I was still surprised to see the region trended toward Harris compared to four years ago. This county in particular was the most surprising to see in the Josh Stein column.
Montgomery County, Ohio--Even as one industrial city after another in the Buckeye State collapses for Democrats, the party keeps managing to hang on in the Dayton area with another narrow win for Harris after a narrow win for Biden four years ago.
Deschutes County, Oregon--Very quickly went from a McCain-Romney county to a double-digit Harris county.
Erie County, Pennsylvania--Given the horrific trendline of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, I figured we'd do quite a bit worse here. Harris didn't win, but Casey pulled it out, which is better than I expected.
Presidio County, Texas--What's their secret? Nearly every RGV border county shifted double digits toward Trump, with the majority of the counties flipping outright. Presidio County shifted only 2 points toward Trump and still went nearly 2-1 Biden.
Utah County, Utah--Even though it's still more than 2-1 Trump, the home of Brigham Young University once again trended toward Harris even as the country (and to a lesser extent the state) trended toward Trump.
Chesterfield County, Virginia--One of the few unambiguously positive developments of this election cycle was the continued blue shift in the Richmond area, helping to offset the unexpected contraction of Democratic support in northern Virginia.
Clark County, Washington--It took a while for Portland's political influence to be felt on the Washington side of the river but we're finally starting to see sustained Democratic improvement in the Vancouver area, so much so that we've nailed down a difficult House seat two cycles in a row.
Clallam County, Washington--One of the counties that has long been a Presidential bellwether breaks its tradition and goes Democrat when the nation goes Republican.
Door County, Wisconsin--The other county often cited as a Presidential bellwether also stays in the Democratic column as the nation goes the other direction.
Waukesha County, Wisconsin--The Harris campaign massively overestimated the number of NeverTrump Republican votes that hadn't already flipped to Biden four years ago, but I suppose given how Republican it was compared to other demographically similar suburban areas elsewhere in the country, it makes some degree of sense that suburban Milwaukee was one of the few places on the map where Harris actually found some more Trump-skeptical Republicans.
Presidio County is apparently a very artsy area, and the people that attracts have kept the county heavily Democratic.
Regarding Union County, NC, I also found it odd that it swung Republican, especially considering that the less educated suburban county to the west, Gaston, swung Democratic. I had thought it would be the other way around.
And Jasper County, SC's Republican shift is because a lot of white people are moving in. Harris actually got almost a thousand more votes than Biden there. It's just that Trump increased his vote total by about 2,800 votes.
Frederick County, MD: never went Dem for president between 1964 and 2020, and Harris did nearly as well as Biden. Also helped to keep a supposedly competitive open congressional seat blue, by a not-that-close 6 points district-wide. (Fun fact: this is the first presidential race since 1860 in which a Republican won nationally but not in Frederick County.)
Virginia Beach: same as Frederick County in 1960s-2010s presidential voting. Biden flipped and Harris (narrowly) held the state's largest city and second largest jurisdiction, after Fairfax County. However, Jen Kiggans kept it and her district red for the House.
What's amazing about this election is Harris held to Biden margins or improved in many of what would've been considered the "bellweathers" of several swing states (particularly GA and WI) and still lost. For example, if you'd told me Harris would definitely improve in Cobb/Paulding in Georgia, I would've thought Harris had the state in the bag.
At least this year expanding OR-05 to include Deschutes/Bend Democrats finally paid off. Doing so also brought a significant number of rural Republicans into the district, helping flip it red in 2022 and probably pissing off most of its Portland-area voters.
Since when? They were more likely to vote Democrats in the 1990s and 2000s than since. Heath Shuler was the last Democrat to win most of those counties until Josh Stein last month.
Madison County is where the City of Huntsville is located and it happens to be the most populated city in Alabama. This is a good sign as going far back as in 2014 the Alabama Democratic Party was literally in ruins.
I know in AL, it as a state has a heavy defense and military business sector, particularly with contractors working for the Department of Defense.
I'm returning with my biannual analysis of counties that were pleasant surprises versus those that were unpleasant surprises for Democrats in Election 2024. I had to reformat a bit compared to prior cycles as finding "pleasant surprises" was an impossible task in more states than not no matter how much I twisted myself into a pretzel. Likewise, limiting myself to one unpleasant surprise per state was also beyond my capabilities in many states. My lists are a little less structured this year but I suspect you'll recognize the format.
Pleasant Surprises
Madison County, Alabama--Even as Alabama's PVI took a sharp right turn, its second largest county (I hadn't realized till now it surpassed Mobile County) barely moved and remained a single-digit Trump county. Given its demographics, I can foresee this county flipping in a strong Democratic cycle.
Saline County, Arkansas--Not sure if its increasing racial diversity or college-educated demographics, but this suburban Little Rock county was the Natural State's only county to shift in Harris's direction since 2020.
Mesa County, Colorado--Western Colorado's blue shift was a nice development overall, led by this population center. If Lauren Boebert had tried to win again in CO-03, I bet Adam Frisch would have beaten her this year.
Larimer County, Colorado--Heavily Hispanic jurisdictions swung to the right this year in Colorado as everywhere else, but at least in Colorado, it was largely offset by numerous population centers like the Fort Collins area with smaller Hispanic populations that trended blue.
Kent County, Delaware--We all remember Christine O'Donnell's 2010 Senate race as a national joke, but she still managed to win the county that's home to Delaware's capital city, which was a tough nut to crack back then. Fast forward to 2024 and Harris, Lisa Blunt Rochester, Sarah McBride, and Matt Meyer all pulled off victories here.
Cobb County, Georgia--If you go back only 10 years, it would have been hard to imagine that the suburban Atlanta county that was home to Newt Gingrich's old Congressional district would not only go for the Democratic Presidential nominee by double digits, but that it would be one of a small percentage of counties nationally that moved toward the Democrats in a difficult cycle.
Paulding County, Georgia--The western suburbs of Atlanta moved the most toward Harris this year, and while this one is still quite red, I don't think it's out of the question that it could flip blue by 2032 given its trendline.
Jackson County, Illinois--After a collapse for Biden in 2020, I figured the home of Carbondale would be a goner in 2024, easily flipping to Trump. Surprisingly, it got a full point bluer.
Hamilton County, Indiana--I know we were all hoping that Indianapolis' most populous suburban county would flip this year but it still moved toward Harris (along with neighboring Boone and Hendricks counties) in a year when not many places did.
Johnson County, Kansas--Again, we all hoped we'd see 2022 Sharice Davids numbers at the Presidential level this year, but the Sunflower State's most populous county still did its part and consolidated more moderate Republicans toward Harris compared to four years ago.
Sagadahoc County, Maine--Coastal Maine held up pretty well for Harris this year, which was less the case in upper New England than I expected. Sagadahoc was one of two counties to perform better for Harris than for Biden, and with or without Susan Collins on the ballot, we'll need it in two years.
Anne Arundel County, Maryland--It wasn't that long ago when this used to be bright red, holding out even for Bob Dole and John McCain. Not only did it go for Harris by double-digits this year, it's also the population core for a Democrat-held Congressional seat in MD-03.
Ottawa County, Michigan--The core of Michigan's Dutch Calvinist population, Ottawa County was the state's most Republican county for decades. It's still pretty bright red but it was the only population center in Michigan trending against Republicans in 2024.
Hennepin County, Minnesota--The city of Minneapolis and three rings of its western suburbs all held nearly as tight for Harris as they did for Biden four years ago, again offsetting Minnesota's red realignment outside of the metro area.
Sarpy County, Nebraska--While it didn't move enough to dump Don Bacon, it was one of four Nebraska counties to go for shadow Democrat Dan Osborn in the Senate race, making it clear that any potential winning Democratic coalition put together in Nebraska would almost certainly include Sarpy County.
Burlington County, New Jersey--In a state that was a dumpster fire for Democrats this year, Burlington County didn't slip as much as most places for Harris and native son Andy Kim improved upon Menendez's winning margin six years ago.
Los Alamos County, New Mexico--I'm guessing federal employment at the National Laboratory is driving the city/county's blue shift, but it's striking that we're now winning nearly 2-1 in a place that George W. Bush won twice.
Transylvania County, North Carolina--Perhaps the flooding disaster significantly reduced turnout among the more rural jurisdictions of western North Carolina, but I was still surprised to see the region trended toward Harris compared to four years ago. This county in particular was the most surprising to see in the Josh Stein column.
Montgomery County, Ohio--Even as one industrial city after another in the Buckeye State collapses for Democrats, the party keeps managing to hang on in the Dayton area with another narrow win for Harris after a narrow win for Biden four years ago.
Deschutes County, Oregon--Very quickly went from a McCain-Romney county to a double-digit Harris county.
Erie County, Pennsylvania--Given the horrific trendline of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, I figured we'd do quite a bit worse here. Harris didn't win, but Casey pulled it out, which is better than I expected.
Presidio County, Texas--What's their secret? Nearly every RGV border county shifted double digits toward Trump, with the majority of the counties flipping outright. Presidio County shifted only 2 points toward Trump and still went nearly 2-1 Biden.
Utah County, Utah--Even though it's still more than 2-1 Trump, the home of Brigham Young University once again trended toward Harris even as the country (and to a lesser extent the state) trended toward Trump.
Chesterfield County, Virginia--One of the few unambiguously positive developments of this election cycle was the continued blue shift in the Richmond area, helping to offset the unexpected contraction of Democratic support in northern Virginia.
Clark County, Washington--It took a while for Portland's political influence to be felt on the Washington side of the river but we're finally starting to see sustained Democratic improvement in the Vancouver area, so much so that we've nailed down a difficult House seat two cycles in a row.
Clallam County, Washington--One of the counties that has long been a Presidential bellwether breaks its tradition and goes Democrat when the nation goes Republican.
Door County, Wisconsin--The other county often cited as a Presidential bellwether also stays in the Democratic column as the nation goes the other direction.
Waukesha County, Wisconsin--The Harris campaign massively overestimated the number of NeverTrump Republican votes that hadn't already flipped to Biden four years ago, but I suppose given how Republican it was compared to other demographically similar suburban areas elsewhere in the country, it makes some degree of sense that suburban Milwaukee was one of the few places on the map where Harris actually found some more Trump-skeptical Republicans.
Presidio County is apparently a very artsy area, and the people that attracts have kept the county heavily Democratic.
Regarding Union County, NC, I also found it odd that it swung Republican, especially considering that the less educated suburban county to the west, Gaston, swung Democratic. I had thought it would be the other way around.
And Jasper County, SC's Republican shift is because a lot of white people are moving in. Harris actually got almost a thousand more votes than Biden there. It's just that Trump increased his vote total by about 2,800 votes.
Thanks for that clarification, especially about Jasper County, SC.
In the DMV, I'd also honourably mention:
Frederick County, MD: never went Dem for president between 1964 and 2020, and Harris did nearly as well as Biden. Also helped to keep a supposedly competitive open congressional seat blue, by a not-that-close 6 points district-wide. (Fun fact: this is the first presidential race since 1860 in which a Republican won nationally but not in Frederick County.)
Virginia Beach: same as Frederick County in 1960s-2010s presidential voting. Biden flipped and Harris (narrowly) held the state's largest city and second largest jurisdiction, after Fairfax County. However, Jen Kiggans kept it and her district red for the House.
What's amazing about this election is Harris held to Biden margins or improved in many of what would've been considered the "bellweathers" of several swing states (particularly GA and WI) and still lost. For example, if you'd told me Harris would definitely improve in Cobb/Paulding in Georgia, I would've thought Harris had the state in the bag.
Deschutes is booooming. Not quite to the extent of the 2010s but Bend is still a very hot area for the “mountain-biking and beer” set
At least this year expanding OR-05 to include Deschutes/Bend Democrats finally paid off. Doing so also brought a significant number of rural Republicans into the district, helping flip it red in 2022 and probably pissing off most of its Portland-area voters.
Yes. It’s sprinting left but just hadn’t quite gotten there two years ago
The counties surrounding Asheville NC have been moving left for a while.
Since when? They were more likely to vote Democrats in the 1990s and 2000s than since. Heath Shuler was the last Democrat to win most of those counties until Josh Stein last month.
I would say at least from Early 2010. Older time the Democratic coalition there was way different, I think you know that. :)
Madison County is where the City of Huntsville is located and it happens to be the most populated city in Alabama. This is a good sign as going far back as in 2014 the Alabama Democratic Party was literally in ruins.
I know in AL, it as a state has a heavy defense and military business sector, particularly with contractors working for the Department of Defense.