I guess Hong's comments/problems are catching up to her.
My personal ideal outcome (specifically talking as a vocal progressive, for the record) is that she loses, but gets close to winning. I believe it will help us avoid the trouble of having a problematic nominee, while still spooking potentially complacent Dems into being more willing to work with progressives such as the ones I'm ideologically aligned with (not DSA for the record, I don't like them. I just mean the left in general.)
It amazes me how, no matter how bad polling gets for Trump and co., they keep on trucking and doing the same shit that is torching their approval ratings. They seem to be genuinely delusional.
I guess that's what happens when you exclusively consume MAGA social media, which does not ever question Trump and insulates its audience in la la land.
D+30 GCB with voters under the age of 50. It's fine that Republicans have now set up two whole generations of voters to utterly despise them, this isn't going to become an existential problem for them as the years go on...
Even as far back as in 2000, Democrats never had full enthusiasm with young voters. Ralph Nader’s ability to fire up the crowd of college students as a presidential candidate was what Al Gore did not have in his campaign.
This is why it’s always helpful to be in tune with the younger generations and not assume they will by default fall in line.
Gore selected one of the biggest squares and warmongers in politics, Joe Lieberman, as his running mate, and ran away from Bill Clinton in some sense. There was no reason why he needed to do this and Gore should have held firm in support of Clinton.
Being a teenager in the 90’s was really awesome. I entered college in the late 90’s and remember times were really good.
Despite my quips here I am generally cautious too. Had a lot of opinions/predictions about how the past decade would go that didn't pan out the way I thought it would. I always keep that in mind. But one thing I am becoming convinced of is that the much-hyped red Gen Z shift of 2024 was mild, proportionate, and driven more by left-wing distaste for Biden, apathy, and third-party voting, than by any attachment to conservative and reactionary ideology. I think Republicans need to move left if they want to win any cohort under the age of 50. Which they don't need to do, at the moment, if they simply win everyone older. But I think the GOP belief that they could simply double down on rightwing Trumpism and flip the next generation will be shown in time as pure fantasy.
The Republicans have easily bounced back, stronger than ever each time, from Bush and Trump part 1. They will be back in no time and many young voters will completely forget all of this.
We do have a weakness in that Biden was not popular by the end of his term. Bush -> Obama provided a very stark contrast that made millennial political leanings strong. Trump -> Biden -> Trump is still in our favor, but it’s not deeply unpopular versus popular anymore. It’s unpopular versus deeply unpopular.
We need to win in 2028 with someone that leaves office well liked if we want to cement things.
Every time Republicans bounce back it's because they win people older than millennials. At some point they'll need to actually win millennials or people younger than them, something that hasn't happened since the first elections millennials could vote in!
On that note, NV primary composition can't be fairly discussed without talking about the impact of automatic voter registration making all new voters unaffiliated by default, excluding them from participation in this closed primary state. Generally speaking unaffiliateds/independents are growing in all states with partisan registration, but it's absurd in Nevada. 2018: 21% of voters unaffiliated. 2022: 29%. 2026: 38%! Early next decade they could be close to 50%. They need to open up the primaries or just abolish partisan registration, this is becoming a farce.
Worth remembering that Dems' best statewide performance in 2018 NV was only 50.6%, and that two of the Dem winners had lower percentages of the vote than the Dem loser, winning because of right-wing spoilers.
I hope the winners don't include the schmuck running against Espaillat. It takes a lot for me to concede that he needs to be re-elected. Sincerely, a New York socialist who's not a DSA member.
She explicitly condemned Biden and called him a rapist. And the other comments absolutely matter. She's against interracial relationships, even most Republicans aren't bigoted enough to be against that. And she outright characterized US support for Ukraine as unfairly "bullying Russia"
"Some polished, some not" is a good summary. I'd add that some of the polish is instinct, and your list highlights folks on both sides of good instincts and knowing their audience. Mamdani has been excellent on that. I'd argue the Platner is also quite good, highlighting issues that appeal to Mainers and handling his issues pretty openly. Conversely, Hong. See comments elsewhere here.
I haven’t followed this closely. Is the only worry about Hong that she is too progressive?
Of all the swing states, Wisconsin is the one where I’m least worried about that. The democratic electorate is very left leaning, just as the republican electorate is very right leaning.
The point is that Wisconsin is less decided by persuasion than you’d expect from a state as closely balanced as it is.
Baldwin and Johnson are not moderates, not close to it, even within their own party. Persuasion is still helpful and important, but less so than in similar states like Michigan or Pennsylvania.
She said this just two weeks ago with even more abolitionist talk in her past. I don’t care how blue the year ends up being, I don’t see her winning a general election.
A world without prisons may be ideal, but it's a totally insane idea. The world and human beings are not ideal, and the rest of us have to be protected from out-of-control violent people.
It’s a very poignant point that people would be scared of someone like Hong exercising her pardoning powers in a crazy way. A governor can do a lot in the way of that even if they cannot abolish prisons or defund the police unilaterally. Wisconsin Republicans are itching to run against her, and it’s no secret why.
I know it it’s hypocritical after Trump pardoned the January 6 terrorists, but this is politics. She would get destroyed over it.
I literally said at the beginning that I haven’t been following this race and asked if the worry was simply about how far left she is.
I have no idea what Hong has or hasn’t said. I don’t think Baldwin has said that, but the whole reason I asked what I did at the start is because I have zero idea about Hong.
Johnson had the good fortune of running only in red years. If he ran this year he’d be toast. While Baldwin certainly has progressive credentials, she presents herself a someone willing to work across the aisle and doesn’t loudly espouse any bomb-throwing political positions. These two are not good examples to prove that Hong wins the general no matter what.
I think there's probably some truth to this analysis. WI seems to have the appetite for right wing Republicans and left wing Democrats, despite being a purple state.
On a related note, did any Vermont or New Hampshire state legislative seats flip due to a lack of filings? I know that in 2024, Democrats allowed some Vermont seats to flip due to not running anyone.
Prognosticators are inherently conservative with their race ratings up until the fall. Really up until the very end of campaign season entirely.
They don't want to be moving ratings back and forth. They to only move things in one direction. If e.g. a Lean R races moves to tossup, they don't want to be moving it back to lean R, only towards lean D from tossup. It makes them wait until they're very confident in trends and durability.
The reluctance to move ratings back and forth is one of perception, I think. People will think they're less accurate if they're doing Lean R -> tossup -> back to lean R, even if the actual movement made perfect sense at every point in time.
Quite true and all three main rating organizations have similar numbers for the house. But at least Cook and Sabato have senate races in GA and NC rated as lean-Dem and Sabato has OH and AK rated as toss-ups.
Sabato’s become such a fail in getting up-to-date assessments in a timely fashion. The NC-SEN race was Lean Democrat the whole time Roy Cooper has been in the race, including right when he announced his candidacy.
The issue is that their starting point should have been having these races being tossups or tilting Democratic instead of lean R since they should have been starting with the assumption that 2026 would play out like 2018.
Which was of course ridiculous since the Dems have the more high turnout coalition, we do better in midterms than Republicans do because of that, that’s both a large part of why we did so well in 2018 and why 2022 wasn’t that bad for us.
But in the age of numerical models (like the now-defunct 538), or even gambling/prediction markets, where people make a big deal out of every time a candidate's winning probability goes over or under 50%, these "professional forecasters" seem a bit antiquated in comparison.
IE currently rates the House with Rs favored in 215; Dems in 206; and with 14 toss ups. Thus, Dems need to win 12 of 15 toss-ups to win a house majority.
It also has the Senate with GA, MI and NC as toss-ups and R's favored in ME, OH, AK, IA, TX etc.
They seem to be ignoring polls and the current environment or at least be assuming all is back to "normal" by November. Quite the contrast to Cook's recent analysis built on the recent Fox poll of Ohio.
Lean Dem CA-06 lmao. Kiley + the Republican sitting at 44% of the primary vote, Dems at 56%. Harris +8, Biden +13 district. Invested way too much in the idea that a sitting GOP congressman can win by simply removing the (R) from their name on the ballot.
"Current projection: Democrats +2-10 seats." In the end Inside Elections is simply not pricing in GCB polls and is treating this year like a neutral electoral environment. If they're wrong on that, they'll be wrong across the board. But what's more likely is they keep doing clumps of leftward ratings moves like this over the next few months until they land where they should be right now.
I’m still trying to understand Kiley’s motives in running for re-election this year. He is defiant to serve in his new district that is Lean Blue but then decides to be an Independent and his political views may remain the same. Or change. Or whatever else that is going on through Kiley’s head.
Honestly, Kiley should have remained in the State Assembly. If a Republican wants to stay relevant in California (and it’s hard enough to begin with in the first place), I’d say state government is better. Even local government.
Or maybe Kiley could have a cushy lobbying job post-Congress.
The latter and jet wants to be able to say he was in Congress would be my guess. Being in the minority in the assembly in California forever is not that fun either
It's been a while since I've done one of these election predictions - I was awaiting decisions on redistricting after the fall of the VRA, as well as some key primaries.
Feel free to give feedback to my positions. I don't know if I'm great at this sort of thing.
Lord strike me down—Masterson should have more than a lean. By which I mean that the entire Republican cohort taken collectively deserves more than a lean. A chilling thing to admit, for me to admit believing.
Marshall should not be rated solid. Certainly likely, but five months is an eternity in politics.
I am uncomfortable with your ranking Sharice Davids a sure thing. Mostly because a Democrat in Kansas is always better off running scared.
Davids won by almost 11 points in 2024. If anything, she should strengthen that number and win by about 15.
I think Marshall is teetering on the edge of likely but will still win by slightly over 10 points. Most predictors said his race would be competitive in 2020, but he won by almost 12 then.
Your assessment makes sense but keep in mind Roger Marshall also won an open Senate race back in 2020 and has now incumbency status as a freshman Senator. Not doubting he could win re-election but if Marshall wins by say 24%, I don’t think we should be shocked.
That said, Marshall’s the junior Senator and Jerry Moran, who has served in the Senate since since 2011, is the senior Senator. Moran’s original Senate election in 2010 and all subsequent Senate elections he has won by wide double digits, making him a notoriously difficult incumbent to unseat.
Marshall might not have it as easy running for re-election but it would all boil down to the strength of the Democratic Senate nominee.
Question -- wouldn't Ed Case be vulnerable to a primary? He has only one serious challenger now that Della Au Belatti dropped out, and his voting record does not match his blue-as-the-sea district at all. Unless Jarrett Keohokalole hasn't gotten enough attention?
I also noticed Phil Weiser is there in place of Michael Bennet. I personally thought Bennet was favored -- curious to know your rationale for that changing. I really would like Weiser to win for the record, so I'm intrigued.
On a related note, do you (or any other posters here) think there's a path for Julie Gonzales to at least make the Hickenlooper primary close, even if she doesn't win? I heard Indivisible is starting to send out calls and texts for her.
Well, I've mostly gone off of available polling, I suppose. Case leads Keohokalole by a wide margin in the only available 1-1 poll, and Weiser is rising in his polls and I believe was only down by a few points in the latest one; he's getting momentum. I think the Hickenlooper-Gonzales one will be within 10 points, or around there, but not see a Gonzales win.
On SC, if Evette wins Gov runoff, then Solid R. If Wilson then likely R. Hard to see Joe Wilson as anything but Solid R, even with the partisan numbers of his district. I think Climer, in Ralph Norman's now open seat, is likely R instead of solid.
Wilson may have the incumbency advantage, but his district isn't that much redder than the 1st, which is expected to be within 10 points this year. Interesting take on Climer. Is Dittmer a good candidate, and is Rock Hill moving to the left quickly enough?
Yeah, but the partisan lean is only half the prediction, right? Else NC Gov would have been tossup or lean D instead of Solid D in Oct 24.
2 Ds in runoff against Wilson. One, Robinson, lost to Wilson by 20 points in 24. He got 40+% of the primary vote. Even if he narrows the gap by 5% he still loses by 15. The other guy, Khalifa, has never run for any office before. Robinson and Khalifa *together* have raised about $15,000. Wilson has well over a million.
Wes Climer was in the SC House for awhile before moving up. Dittmer is a novice. But Dittmer has raised over $100,000 so far, and Climer will be unknown in most of the district. So that's why I think SC 5 could be more competitive but still Likely R.
NH-Gov: A general matchup between incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte and former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington has been set, as Ayotte faces minor intraparty opposition and Warmington is uncontested.
NH-Sen: Rep. Chris Pappas and physician Karishma Manzur will continue to run in the Democratic primary, while state Rep. Jared Sullivan dropped out. Former Sens. John Sununu and Scott Brown as well as former state Rep. and perennial candidate Tom Alciere will run on the Republican side.
NH-1: Former Portsmouth councilor Stefany Shaheen, state Rep. Heath Howard, Hampton selectwoman Carleigh Beriont, attorney Christian Urrutia and former state Rep. Bill Conlin will run as Democrats to succeed Pappas, while businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky, businessman Anthony DiLorenzo, state Rep. Brian Cole and Bedford Republican Party official Melissa Bailey will run as Republicans.
NH-2: Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander faces state Rep. Paige Beauchemin and nonprofit head Sarah Chadzynski, who previously ran in the 1st, in the primary. Businesswoman Lily Tang Williams is running on the Republican side for a rematch with Goodlander.
Additionally, NH's Executive Council and the state Senate as well as the very large House are up.
I wonder what global polling would look like as far as rooting interests for tonight's USA v Paraguay match. Here is hoping the drama stays on the pitch and not in the streets surrounding the stadium.
TX GOP Convention: Reps had an actual elephant at the convention and the elephant I think spoke for everyone here when it urinated while walking down the aisle on the convention floor.
I think you mean "hold" that district, as it's currently a Democratic district.
As for if Pia can win: I hope so! But it's far from guaranteed. It's a Trump +10 district, so less conservative than some special legislative district swings we've seen in Florida, but still pretty conservative.
I agree, but "should be able to" is not "guaranteed." We've seen Florida become a finnicky state politically. Even if a blue wave hits everywhere else, I wouldn't assume Florida automatically operates in the same manner.
That said, I'm hopeful that Democrats can win, especially with a well-funded candidate like Pia Dandiya.
Now that Mayor Matt Mahan only got 8% of the vote in last week’s primary in Santa Clara County (where San Jose is located in), he’s still set to finish off his term in office which ends in 2028. The fact that Xavier Becerra got 33% in SC County says a lot considering the heavy Silicon Valley influence here.
I am not sure how Mahan will manage as Mayor after his primary loss but it remains to be seen. His gubernatorial candidacy failed to register and no matter how much money SV tech special interests pumped in the race, Mahan got nothing out of it in the end.
I just found out that while Mahan did originally run for Mayor back in 2022, the city in the 2022 midterms passed Measure B which shifted mayoral elections to presidential election years. Mahan ran for re-election in 2024 but this time got elected for a four year term which the passage of Measure B also granted.
I think this past run will make it harder for him to run for any other higher office in the near future. It was his decision to make this big of a blunder this early in his career. Just wish him and Porter dropped out so two Democrats were in the general.
Porter’s candidacy was one problem all together because she hasn't been mayor and doesn't have responsibilities like mayors do where they are having to be held accountable almost daily if a city isn't run well. It's Mahan that makes me wonder why he wanted to be Governor in the first place considering he served one single two-year term and then had only served just over a year of his full four-year term.
Most gubernatorial candidates who run for Governor need to have already built enough stature or a public persona that makes them appealing for a statewide run. I've said before here that Mahan was never really known to the general public outside of San Jose so that's a problem.
I would think Roys and Barnes would be switched in an actual primary, but all other placements seem reasonable.
I guess Hong's comments/problems are catching up to her.
My personal ideal outcome (specifically talking as a vocal progressive, for the record) is that she loses, but gets close to winning. I believe it will help us avoid the trouble of having a problematic nominee, while still spooking potentially complacent Dems into being more willing to work with progressives such as the ones I'm ideologically aligned with (not DSA for the record, I don't like them. I just mean the left in general.)
I wasn’t necessarily saying she would lose, I was saying what my own personal ideal outcome would be.
We need a new Marquette poll, which is what this tells me. Hope they are in the field soon.
What are their opinions relevant for?
I asked a real question. Is there a relevance, and if so to what?
It amazes me how, no matter how bad polling gets for Trump and co., they keep on trucking and doing the same shit that is torching their approval ratings. They seem to be genuinely delusional.
I guess that's what happens when you exclusively consume MAGA social media, which does not ever question Trump and insulates its audience in la la land.
Hermetically sealed info environments are hermetically sealed.
Also why you don’t get high in your supply or read your own press
D+30 GCB with voters under the age of 50. It's fine that Republicans have now set up two whole generations of voters to utterly despise them, this isn't going to become an existential problem for them as the years go on...
On young voters:
Even as far back as in 2000, Democrats never had full enthusiasm with young voters. Ralph Nader’s ability to fire up the crowd of college students as a presidential candidate was what Al Gore did not have in his campaign.
This is why it’s always helpful to be in tune with the younger generations and not assume they will by default fall in line.
What idiots, not to be "fired up" by Gore! Imagine what a better country and world it would have been had Gore gotten a Supreme Court-proof victory!
Gore selected one of the biggest squares and warmongers in politics, Joe Lieberman, as his running mate, and ran away from Bill Clinton in some sense. There was no reason why he needed to do this and Gore should have held firm in support of Clinton.
Being a teenager in the 90’s was really awesome. I entered college in the late 90’s and remember times were really good.
I fully agree with you and was talking with my girlfriend about that last night.
I largely agree, but you exaggerate when you say that "all American voters are persuadable." Are you persuadable? I'm not.
I believe I agree with you. Well stated.
I don't know if it will. We need to wait till 2032 to make sweeping pronouncements of bi-generational change.
Considering the sudden giant shift with a lot of Gen Zers compared to the pre-2024 trendline I’d be cautious of such declarations too
Despite my quips here I am generally cautious too. Had a lot of opinions/predictions about how the past decade would go that didn't pan out the way I thought it would. I always keep that in mind. But one thing I am becoming convinced of is that the much-hyped red Gen Z shift of 2024 was mild, proportionate, and driven more by left-wing distaste for Biden, apathy, and third-party voting, than by any attachment to conservative and reactionary ideology. I think Republicans need to move left if they want to win any cohort under the age of 50. Which they don't need to do, at the moment, if they simply win everyone older. But I think the GOP belief that they could simply double down on rightwing Trumpism and flip the next generation will be shown in time as pure fantasy.
Wasn't part of it sexism, racism and an obsession with inflation?
The Republicans have easily bounced back, stronger than ever each time, from Bush and Trump part 1. They will be back in no time and many young voters will completely forget all of this.
Will they though? The young voters who came of age under Bush are still mostly Democrats now.
We do have a weakness in that Biden was not popular by the end of his term. Bush -> Obama provided a very stark contrast that made millennial political leanings strong. Trump -> Biden -> Trump is still in our favor, but it’s not deeply unpopular versus popular anymore. It’s unpopular versus deeply unpopular.
We need to win in 2028 with someone that leaves office well liked if we want to cement things.
doubt that...this runs much deeper than it did with bush or t 1
Every time Republicans bounce back it's because they win people older than millennials. At some point they'll need to actually win millennials or people younger than them, something that hasn't happened since the first elections millennials could vote in!
On that note, NV primary composition can't be fairly discussed without talking about the impact of automatic voter registration making all new voters unaffiliated by default, excluding them from participation in this closed primary state. Generally speaking unaffiliateds/independents are growing in all states with partisan registration, but it's absurd in Nevada. 2018: 21% of voters unaffiliated. 2022: 29%. 2026: 38%! Early next decade they could be close to 50%. They need to open up the primaries or just abolish partisan registration, this is becoming a farce.
Worth remembering that Dems' best statewide performance in 2018 NV was only 50.6%, and that two of the Dem winners had lower percentages of the vote than the Dem loser, winning because of right-wing spoilers.
Nevada is one state where RCV would probably prove quite beneficial to Republicans.
I hope the winners don't include the schmuck running against Espaillat. It takes a lot for me to concede that he needs to be re-elected. Sincerely, a New York socialist who's not a DSA member.
Yep, I’ll take an establishment Dem over a racist, antisemitic tankie who didn’t support Biden in the general any day.
She voted for Biden. The other comments aren’t worthy of a reply.
She voted for him after condemning him. OK, still not great at all. And Kamala Harris?
She explicitly condemned Biden and called him a rapist. And the other comments absolutely matter. She's against interracial relationships, even most Republicans aren't bigoted enough to be against that. And she outright characterized US support for Ukraine as unfairly "bullying Russia"
She called Biden a rapist? Based on what?
Don't know what it was based on, but here's a source for what I'm sayinh
https://abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/mamdani-backed-house-candidates-deleted-posts-called-for-abolishing-police-borders-democratic-socialist-nyc-adriano-espaillat-primary-blm-bernie-sanders-aoc-joe-biden
"Some polished, some not" is a good summary. I'd add that some of the polish is instinct, and your list highlights folks on both sides of good instincts and knowing their audience. Mamdani has been excellent on that. I'd argue the Platner is also quite good, highlighting issues that appeal to Mainers and handling his issues pretty openly. Conversely, Hong. See comments elsewhere here.
I haven’t followed this closely. Is the only worry about Hong that she is too progressive?
Of all the swing states, Wisconsin is the one where I’m least worried about that. The democratic electorate is very left leaning, just as the republican electorate is very right leaning.
And the independent voters who'll probably determine the outcome of the election lean which way?
The point is that Wisconsin is less decided by persuasion than you’d expect from a state as closely balanced as it is.
Baldwin and Johnson are not moderates, not close to it, even within their own party. Persuasion is still helpful and important, but less so than in similar states like Michigan or Pennsylvania.
She said this just two weeks ago with even more abolitionist talk in her past. I don’t care how blue the year ends up being, I don’t see her winning a general election.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2026/05/29/democrat-francesca-hong-speaks-about-an-ideal-world-without-prisons/90258710007/?gnt-cfr=1&gca-cat=p&gca-uir=false&gca-epti=z115731p118550n00----l001250c00----u117331e1138xxv115731&gca-ft=241&gca-ds=sophi
A world without prisons may be ideal, but it's a totally insane idea. The world and human beings are not ideal, and the rest of us have to be protected from out-of-control violent people.
It’s a very poignant point that people would be scared of someone like Hong exercising her pardoning powers in a crazy way. A governor can do a lot in the way of that even if they cannot abolish prisons or defund the police unilaterally. Wisconsin Republicans are itching to run against her, and it’s no secret why.
I know it it’s hypocritical after Trump pardoned the January 6 terrorists, but this is politics. She would get destroyed over it.
Baldwin never called for defunding the police, did she?
I literally said at the beginning that I haven’t been following this race and asked if the worry was simply about how far left she is.
I have no idea what Hong has or hasn’t said. I don’t think Baldwin has said that, but the whole reason I asked what I did at the start is because I have zero idea about Hong.
OK. Hong's support for defunding the police has been mentioned a bunch of times on these boards, so I didn't realize you didn't know about it.
Johnson had the good fortune of running only in red years. If he ran this year he’d be toast. While Baldwin certainly has progressive credentials, she presents herself a someone willing to work across the aisle and doesn’t loudly espouse any bomb-throwing political positions. These two are not good examples to prove that Hong wins the general no matter what.
I agree with you.
I think there's probably some truth to this analysis. WI seems to have the appetite for right wing Republicans and left wing Democrats, despite being a purple state.
I don't disagree, but there's a limit to just how radical a left-winger they will elect.
Lol
On a related note, did any Vermont or New Hampshire state legislative seats flip due to a lack of filings? I know that in 2024, Democrats allowed some Vermont seats to flip due to not running anyone.
Those are pretty conservative estimates, I feel.
Prognosticators are inherently conservative with their race ratings up until the fall. Really up until the very end of campaign season entirely.
They don't want to be moving ratings back and forth. They to only move things in one direction. If e.g. a Lean R races moves to tossup, they don't want to be moving it back to lean R, only towards lean D from tossup. It makes them wait until they're very confident in trends and durability.
The reluctance to move ratings back and forth is one of perception, I think. People will think they're less accurate if they're doing Lean R -> tossup -> back to lean R, even if the actual movement made perfect sense at every point in time.
Quite true and all three main rating organizations have similar numbers for the house. But at least Cook and Sabato have senate races in GA and NC rated as lean-Dem and Sabato has OH and AK rated as toss-ups.
Wasn’t Sabato’s shift in North Carolina just this past week? It’s insane he had it there for almost the past year since Cooper entered the race.
Sabato’s become such a fail in getting up-to-date assessments in a timely fashion. The NC-SEN race was Lean Democrat the whole time Roy Cooper has been in the race, including right when he announced his candidacy.
The issue is that their starting point should have been having these races being tossups or tilting Democratic instead of lean R since they should have been starting with the assumption that 2026 would play out like 2018.
They were probably doing some "Well, Republicans underperformed in 2022 so it's possible that Democrats could underperform in 2026" hedging.
Which was of course ridiculous since the Dems have the more high turnout coalition, we do better in midterms than Republicans do because of that, that’s both a large part of why we did so well in 2018 and why 2022 wasn’t that bad for us.
They are consistent, I'll give them that.
But in the age of numerical models (like the now-defunct 538), or even gambling/prediction markets, where people make a big deal out of every time a candidate's winning probability goes over or under 50%, these "professional forecasters" seem a bit antiquated in comparison.
For sure.
IE currently rates the House with Rs favored in 215; Dems in 206; and with 14 toss ups. Thus, Dems need to win 12 of 15 toss-ups to win a house majority.
It also has the Senate with GA, MI and NC as toss-ups and R's favored in ME, OH, AK, IA, TX etc.
They seem to be ignoring polls and the current environment or at least be assuming all is back to "normal" by November. Quite the contrast to Cook's recent analysis built on the recent Fox poll of Ohio.
Lean Dem CA-06 lmao. Kiley + the Republican sitting at 44% of the primary vote, Dems at 56%. Harris +8, Biden +13 district. Invested way too much in the idea that a sitting GOP congressman can win by simply removing the (R) from their name on the ballot.
"Current projection: Democrats +2-10 seats." In the end Inside Elections is simply not pricing in GCB polls and is treating this year like a neutral electoral environment. If they're wrong on that, they'll be wrong across the board. But what's more likely is they keep doing clumps of leftward ratings moves like this over the next few months until they land where they should be right now.
I’m still trying to understand Kiley’s motives in running for re-election this year. He is defiant to serve in his new district that is Lean Blue but then decides to be an Independent and his political views may remain the same. Or change. Or whatever else that is going on through Kiley’s head.
Honestly, Kiley should have remained in the State Assembly. If a Republican wants to stay relevant in California (and it’s hard enough to begin with in the first place), I’d say state government is better. Even local government.
Or maybe Kiley could have a cushy lobbying job post-Congress.
The latter and jet wants to be able to say he was in Congress would be my guess. Being in the minority in the assembly in California forever is not that fun either
Yes, for any Republican serving in the State Legislature that’s certainly a dead end job with not much influence.
Thank you was thinking the same on CA-06
Why did they move CA6 to lean?
Kansas State Board of Education district 1
Amy Cawvey (R)
Jennifer Lloyd (D)
Kansas State Board of Education district 3
Jim McMullen (R)
Steve Roberts (R)
Amy Diediker (D)
Kansas State Board of Education district 5
Kelly Ancar (R)
Jean Clifford (R)
Lorie Wood (D)
Kansas State Board of Education district 7
Alana McWilliams (R)
Ann Zimmerman (D)
Kansas State Board of Education district 9
Destry Brown (R)
Kristian Gerken (R)
Renee Slinkard (R)
Heather Guernsey (D)
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/6/10/800053254/community/educating-about-grassroots-really-deep-grassroots/
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MRwkZOJx0OHAj91srxeibeWHtXOizS6mbx-cEN4obqQ/edit?tab=t.0#heading=h.kx17edjqdim0
It's been a while since I've done one of these election predictions - I was awaiting decisions on redistricting after the fall of the VRA, as well as some key primaries.
Feel free to give feedback to my positions. I don't know if I'm great at this sort of thing.
As to your Kansas picks:
Lord strike me down—Masterson should have more than a lean. By which I mean that the entire Republican cohort taken collectively deserves more than a lean. A chilling thing to admit, for me to admit believing.
Marshall should not be rated solid. Certainly likely, but five months is an eternity in politics.
I am uncomfortable with your ranking Sharice Davids a sure thing. Mostly because a Democrat in Kansas is always better off running scared.
Davids won by almost 11 points in 2024. If anything, she should strengthen that number and win by about 15.
I think Marshall is teetering on the edge of likely but will still win by slightly over 10 points. Most predictors said his race would be competitive in 2020, but he won by almost 12 then.
Your assessment makes sense but keep in mind Roger Marshall also won an open Senate race back in 2020 and has now incumbency status as a freshman Senator. Not doubting he could win re-election but if Marshall wins by say 24%, I don’t think we should be shocked.
That said, Marshall’s the junior Senator and Jerry Moran, who has served in the Senate since since 2011, is the senior Senator. Moran’s original Senate election in 2010 and all subsequent Senate elections he has won by wide double digits, making him a notoriously difficult incumbent to unseat.
Marshall might not have it as easy running for re-election but it would all boil down to the strength of the Democratic Senate nominee.
Very interesting rundown. Good work Julius.
Question -- wouldn't Ed Case be vulnerable to a primary? He has only one serious challenger now that Della Au Belatti dropped out, and his voting record does not match his blue-as-the-sea district at all. Unless Jarrett Keohokalole hasn't gotten enough attention?
I also noticed Phil Weiser is there in place of Michael Bennet. I personally thought Bennet was favored -- curious to know your rationale for that changing. I really would like Weiser to win for the record, so I'm intrigued.
On a related note, do you (or any other posters here) think there's a path for Julie Gonzales to at least make the Hickenlooper primary close, even if she doesn't win? I heard Indivisible is starting to send out calls and texts for her.
Well, I've mostly gone off of available polling, I suppose. Case leads Keohokalole by a wide margin in the only available 1-1 poll, and Weiser is rising in his polls and I believe was only down by a few points in the latest one; he's getting momentum. I think the Hickenlooper-Gonzales one will be within 10 points, or around there, but not see a Gonzales win.
On SC, if Evette wins Gov runoff, then Solid R. If Wilson then likely R. Hard to see Joe Wilson as anything but Solid R, even with the partisan numbers of his district. I think Climer, in Ralph Norman's now open seat, is likely R instead of solid.
Wilson may have the incumbency advantage, but his district isn't that much redder than the 1st, which is expected to be within 10 points this year. Interesting take on Climer. Is Dittmer a good candidate, and is Rock Hill moving to the left quickly enough?
Yeah, but the partisan lean is only half the prediction, right? Else NC Gov would have been tossup or lean D instead of Solid D in Oct 24.
2 Ds in runoff against Wilson. One, Robinson, lost to Wilson by 20 points in 24. He got 40+% of the primary vote. Even if he narrows the gap by 5% he still loses by 15. The other guy, Khalifa, has never run for any office before. Robinson and Khalifa *together* have raised about $15,000. Wilson has well over a million.
Wes Climer was in the SC House for awhile before moving up. Dittmer is a novice. But Dittmer has raised over $100,000 so far, and Climer will be unknown in most of the district. So that's why I think SC 5 could be more competitive but still Likely R.
https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/cumulative-filings-6.12.26.pdf
New Hampshire filing deadline:
NH-Gov: A general matchup between incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte and former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington has been set, as Ayotte faces minor intraparty opposition and Warmington is uncontested.
NH-Sen: Rep. Chris Pappas and physician Karishma Manzur will continue to run in the Democratic primary, while state Rep. Jared Sullivan dropped out. Former Sens. John Sununu and Scott Brown as well as former state Rep. and perennial candidate Tom Alciere will run on the Republican side.
NH-1: Former Portsmouth councilor Stefany Shaheen, state Rep. Heath Howard, Hampton selectwoman Carleigh Beriont, attorney Christian Urrutia and former state Rep. Bill Conlin will run as Democrats to succeed Pappas, while businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky, businessman Anthony DiLorenzo, state Rep. Brian Cole and Bedford Republican Party official Melissa Bailey will run as Republicans.
NH-2: Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander faces state Rep. Paige Beauchemin and nonprofit head Sarah Chadzynski, who previously ran in the 1st, in the primary. Businesswoman Lily Tang Williams is running on the Republican side for a rematch with Goodlander.
Additionally, NH's Executive Council and the state Senate as well as the very large House are up.
I’m not saying you didn’t do your homework.
I wonder what global polling would look like as far as rooting interests for tonight's USA v Paraguay match. Here is hoping the drama stays on the pitch and not in the streets surrounding the stadium.
TX GOP Convention: Reps had an actual elephant at the convention and the elephant I think spoke for everyone here when it urinated while walking down the aisle on the convention floor.
https://bsky.app/profile/texasdemocrats.bsky.social/post/3mo4lflkqma22
I hope it’s a sign of what’s to come in TX come this fall.
Once again, thank you Trump for your service in helping destroy the TX GOP. /s
Was this the result?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fITt231W_vI&pp=ygUgc2ltcHNvbnMgZWxlcGhhbnQgcGVhbnV0IGZhY3Rvcnk%3D&ra=m
https://www.wpbf.com/article/florida-palm-beach-county-sara-baxter-trump-congress/71574332
FL-22: And just like that, Palm Beach County mayor Sarah Baxter is out, hours after the filing deadline, because Trump told her to.
Isn’t Pia Dandiya poised to flip that district?
I think you mean "hold" that district, as it's currently a Democratic district.
As for if Pia can win: I hope so! But it's far from guaranteed. It's a Trump +10 district, so less conservative than some special legislative district swings we've seen in Florida, but still pretty conservative.
Biden won it in 2020, and Democrats should at least be able to win back most seats that he won.
I agree, but "should be able to" is not "guaranteed." We've seen Florida become a finnicky state politically. Even if a blue wave hits everywhere else, I wouldn't assume Florida automatically operates in the same manner.
That said, I'm hopeful that Democrats can win, especially with a well-funded candidate like Pia Dandiya.
Yes I did mean hold, apologies.
San Jose Mayoral Race 2028:
Now that Mayor Matt Mahan only got 8% of the vote in last week’s primary in Santa Clara County (where San Jose is located in), he’s still set to finish off his term in office which ends in 2028. The fact that Xavier Becerra got 33% in SC County says a lot considering the heavy Silicon Valley influence here.
I am not sure how Mahan will manage as Mayor after his primary loss but it remains to be seen. His gubernatorial candidacy failed to register and no matter how much money SV tech special interests pumped in the race, Mahan got nothing out of it in the end.
I just found out that while Mahan did originally run for Mayor back in 2022, the city in the 2022 midterms passed Measure B which shifted mayoral elections to presidential election years. Mahan ran for re-election in 2024 but this time got elected for a four year term which the passage of Measure B also granted.
I think this past run will make it harder for him to run for any other higher office in the near future. It was his decision to make this big of a blunder this early in his career. Just wish him and Porter dropped out so two Democrats were in the general.
Porter’s candidacy was one problem all together because she hasn't been mayor and doesn't have responsibilities like mayors do where they are having to be held accountable almost daily if a city isn't run well. It's Mahan that makes me wonder why he wanted to be Governor in the first place considering he served one single two-year term and then had only served just over a year of his full four-year term.
Most gubernatorial candidates who run for Governor need to have already built enough stature or a public persona that makes them appealing for a statewide run. I've said before here that Mahan was never really known to the general public outside of San Jose so that's a problem.