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JanusIanitos's avatar

Interesting to me to see the wide discrepancy in predictions here so far with the three people who have given percentages. I can see the argument for the pessimistic, optimistic, and middle-ground views expressed here. There's a reasonable path for any of them to be correct.

I'm terrible at making straight up predictions and go out of my way to avoid doing so. I prefer looking at things from a more hierarchical view.

My hierarchical view: we're slightly more likely to win the presidency than to win the house, and we're far more likely to win the house than the senate. Presidency > House >> Senate.

I like doing it this way as it forces me to look at it without my emotional preferences biasing my view. The criticality of winning the presidency every four years biases my ability to assign any reasonable probability to winning, and any attempt to correct for my preferences risks over-adjusting in the opposite direction, or missing that things actually are as good as I want them to be.

But this approach doesn't have that problem. Winning everything is important, and it's just viewing which is more likely to happen. I like this for individual races and states too.

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