I think NC GOP will lose quite a few seats here in the legislature this year, if the rural special election in LA is any indication as well as the state TX Senate race. One of them could very well be the corrupt power hungry leader himself, Phil Berger, be it in March or November.
NC Senate and House R seats that are vulnerable in a similar blue wave environment? I'm going to be generous and assume anything up to R+15 are up for grabs.
NC Sen - D1 (Hanig, won by 57%), D2 (Sanderson, 56%), D3 (Brinson, 59.9%), D4 (Newton, 55.5%), D7 (Lee, 52.2%), D11 (Barnes, 51.3%), D21 (McInnis, won by 62.7%), D25 (Galey, 60%), D26 (Berger, 54%)
NC House has way too many to count (120), but what I've noticed about at least half of those R-held 71 seats were won in the 50-64% range. Democrats need to hold all their current seats and flip only 12 of those R-held seats to win an outright majority in the state House, possibly gain momentum to win a supermajority there. But they need to flip six out of the 9 state Senate Rs to oust Berger from the majority.
Imagine if Ohio or Florida required a special election to fill the vacant senate seat instead of a governor's appointment that lasts until the regular elections.
I'd love to have seen a special senate election in this environment before the midterms. No better early gauge of the electorate's mood than that.
I think Texas and other GOP redistricting efforts were founded on the assumption that 2024 represented a sudden "new normal" whose voting patterns would continue indefinitely--which was a foolish idea even a year ago.
And all of our statewide candidates. I know we've been burned before and I'm a pessimist on this stuff, but I'm starting to believe we have a shot in TX this year...
But the Dow Jones hit 50,000 today! Seriously, someone at RRH Elections mentioned that and wondered "why are we talking about Truth Social posts when the economy is going gangbusters?" He surely speaks for most Republicans in wondering about that.
To which the answer is, if your response to voter discontent regarding the economy is "Looky looky Wall Street!", then you're part of the problem, at least politically. When working and middle class people are having a hard time finding jobs or getting raises, and are having difficulty affording even basic things (a problem worsened by tariffs however much the GOP may deny it), they don't give a shit about stock prices and how well the "Investor class" is doing.
And the supposedly glorious economy of 2018 didn't exactly rescue the GOP, and if anything they're probably in worse shape now.
Even in this Pew, less than half of Republicans themselves think the economy is good - the online right is so disconnected from events on the ground, even on their side of the aisle.
I suspect that we are at a time where the economy is going to be shitty for most people no matter who is in the White House and therefore we could see a series of weak one term presidents.
As long as the tariffs are reduced or outright eliminated in the first term of the next POTUS, I doubt this to be the case.
Right now, the tariffs are the biggest liability to the economy. Besides the prices of goods potentially going down because of this, if there’s an economic stimulus that gets passed in Congress, that mitigates the potential concerns.
Sigal Chattah also called for Aaron Ford's lynching though. I'm sure Republicans will nominate a crazy motherfucker, but do we really think someone will say something as bad as that again?
Depends on who Rs run. If one of Sandoval’s buddies jumps in (he’s basically the chieftain of Reno politics) we probably don’t have a chance. If it’s some Ammon Bundy adjacent nut then, maybe. Amodei was conservative but not crazy, and Dean Heller was relatively mainstream R for most of his career
I haven’t checked in a while but didn’t Danny Tarkanian used to be a Douglas County supervisor? Hilarious if he were to run here. That would put it to tossup to me if a Dem state legislator were to run
Which is interesting because Clinton even after the beginning of his first term as POTUS is still talking about the need for getting more of a universal healthcare system now than what already exists. This comes in light of the increased costs in healthcare premiums.
Newt Gingrich’s intentionally-toxic language recommendations for Republican politicians was a precursor of Trump’s rise and MAGA. That language, including the frequent term "the radical Left" for moderate Democrats and their policy suggestions, was widely adopted by Mitch McConnell and many, many other Republicans.
I do believe Gingrich was, and still is, a sincere Fascist.
It’s been argued by conservatives that William Buckley was the one who gave rise to Newt Gingrich, Rush Limbaugh and others with his ideology a long time in the making. But Gingrich was also the original terrorist in Congress back in the 80’s.
On the other hand, back in 2005 Newt Gingrich did work with Hillary Clinton on pushing electronic medical record standards.
Yeah, they crossed a line by sandbagging a candidate for something that has nothing to do with American-Israeli relations. It's mission creep that makes you less effective like what happened with the Sierra Club.
Yeah, they pushed a lot of progressive voters to Mejia, and a lot of the center left votes he needed to fend off Mejia to other candidates like Way and Gill. He got more votes than the latter two combined in VBM. He finished behind Way on ED.
It's probably the second biggest asshole after Elon's site. At least most Reddit users vote Democratic (unless it might disrupt their ideological purity and alleged personal moral superiority.)
Reflecting on my post from last weekend that looked forward to elections on the horizon, the Texas special turned out far better than I would dare even dream. NJ-11 was icing on top. Good to see a brazen carpet bagger punished.
My updated outlook to races on the horizon:
1. I wasn’t even tracking the Louisiana special scheduled for tomorrow. I’m now interested in that, but will not jinx it.
2. The Texas primaries on March 3rd: I obviously want Talarico to win outright and for Paxton-Cornyn to go to a runoff. I’m also interested in seeing who people are supporting in other Texas primaries: AG, LG, and the like? Nathan Johnson seems the most-well funded Dem AG candidate. Hopefully Republicans get forced into a runoff there. I would have guesses Vikki Goodwin was a favorite for LG, but maybe not?
3. North Carolina, also on March 3rd: I’ll be watching the rebels in the Democratic caucus that overrode Governor Stein’s vetoes. Also hoping for Jamie Ager in NC-11.
4. WISC on April 7th: looks like Dems have started airing ads. Let the slaughtering begin.
I would also keep an eye here in NC whether power hungry state Senate leader Phil Berger (who I despise) will finally be ousted by MAGA police chief Sam Page or whether he'll be badly damaged after winning. He only won 54% of the vote in 2024 (not a commanding lead in a presidential year), so if everything goes right, Rs would lose their power broker AND a seat in the state Senate.
IMO It's amazing how the WISC race is getting almost no attention at all while last year's was hyped to hell and back (I suppose the hype was because court control was at stake, as well as the involvement of the Elongated Muskrat.)
That and it was one of the first elections to organize around to show displeasure with Trump's insane early days, and it basically had airwaves to itself in the electoral lane. Now so much more crazy shit has been going on and lots of other campaigns in the air drowning it out.
I think that the WI court race last year was particularly important because of the Muskrat: it was at least the beginning of the end for the narrative that Elon had recast the GOP as a sleek machine that would own the future, or at least that his $$ could reliably rescue Republicans in trouble.
Yeah, that race was an important chink in Elon’s then-armor and it only accelerated from there. Especially with Liberation Day happening right around the same time. Taken together that really derailed what up to then had basically been two months of Trumpist “inevitability”
Taylor is a strong candidate, and Lazar feels like she's taking one for the team. Most in-state GOP energy is focused on holding the lege and winning the gov race.
I gotta say no one should ever take DDHQ's "calls" seriously again. They have no standard I can see beyond "call a race if someone is ahead by 5 points with half the vote in", they've had constant near-mistakes where they call races early that end up going down to the wire, and then there's their outright incorrect calls, like last night, Seattle mayor, the 2020 MO-01 Dem primary, 2018 CA-21...their "we get 99% of calls right" metric is useless, sure I can call West Virginia and Massachusetts too. But if they can't be trusted to be right in close races, then...what's even the point? Blowing a call every couple years (with multiple other near misses they pretend don't happen) is an unacceptable rate, if it even happens a single time it's a disaster for your credibility and should prompt operational changes to ensure it never happens again. And for these mistakes to keep happening years after all of us became highly aware of the fact that the early and late vote counts can be radically different...embarrassing!
Malinowski was up by 25 points in the VBM. Clay was only up by 12 and Harrell by 8 on the initial drops. His lead seemed insurmountable to a degree that the other two didn't.
We're several years into the significant growth of VBM, and media orgs have had those years to learn that there are wide discrepencies in how people vote depending on if they vote by VBM or on election day, or by early voting. There's even major differences in early versus late VBM.
I don't think up 25 points with that very early data is justified as insurmountable. Especially in a primary, which tends to be much more volatile than a general election. Unlike in a general election, in a primary every candidate is broadly appealing to the entire electorate.
It's baffling that they chase the early calls to me. Get one wrong, OK, everyone makes at least one mistake at some point. But they keep making the mistakes over and over again. They aren't learning from it; if anything they seem to have learned that no one will hold them to account for the mistakes and they can afford to be even sloppier. They're chasing engagement, credibility be damned.
I wish there was more willingness for non-calls in the style of the NYT needle: state which candidate is favored based on the results. Even re-use the lean/likely/tossup language we use. I certainly do not know the vote geography of all that many places and would find this useful!
I might just be in my progressive LA Politics bubble out here but I didn't realize that he was in danger of losing. I was under the impression that he was doing a decent job, and while he had a bit of a rocky start has settled into the job. Why do you think Sokoloff or Hall are a serious threat to his re-election?
Paul Koretz had major establishment support and was ahead in fundraising and he still lost by 25+ points. Mejia is the incumbent now too, so I feel like that means a bit. Is there anything else that Mejia has done that he's endangered this cycle?
That is not a meaningful description of either Karen Bass or Lindsey Horvath. Both are in the liberal to progressive range (and I have voted for both of them in the past.) Lindsey was clearly the more progressive choice when she ran for Supervisor against Bob Hertzberg. Karen was the better choice in her first run for Mayor against Rick Caruso. A potential challenge would be more about competence and accountability than an ideological difference between the two of them. Bass is vulnerable based on her leadership after the fires last year as well as the usual longtime issues in L.A. (housing affordability, homelessness and traffic/transportation issues among others.)
Today is the deadline for people to file to run so we will soon have clarity about who is actually in the race. The big news the other day was that Austin Beutner, who would have been the strongest moderate candidate, decided to drop out because of a family tragedy. His daughter died last month somewhat mysteriously. There is a right-wing reality show actor candidate, Spencer Pratt, who is running to sell more copies of his new book. There is a left-wing DSA person, activist Rae Huang, who will get some support, but is unlikely to make it to the runoff. Bass needs 50%+1 to avoid a runoff which she might get is there are no major moderate candidates. In a nonpartisan race it does not automatically go on to November is somebody gets a majority. I am not predicting she will get the majority because there is a lot of discontent among the voters. Why would anyone want to be mayor at this difficult time?
I think Lindsey would be making a mistake by running for Mayor of Los Angeles. She would have to give up her seat on the Board of Supes. She was one of the leaders of the county government reorganization (increasing the size of the Board and establishing a County Executive) and maybe should focus on the county issues. She would be a good candidate for the new job of County Executive once it is set up. She is young (early 40s) and ambitious so she sees an opportunity, but I feel like her long-term career interests would be better in L.A. County government than as the city's chief flak catcher.
Lindsey Horvath is a smart person. She is staying at the county job of Supervisor and will remain one of the "Five Little Queens". (In the old days the Supes were called the Five Little Kings because of their large executive and legislative powers. Now the Board is all women.)
Thanks for providing the link. The newest development is that City Councilmember Nithya Raman (CD-04) is running for Mayor. She will take over the left lane in the race, having the same base as Rae Huang but with electoral success and governing experience. Raman was re-elected in 2024 so she does not have to give up her seat on the Council. I was not expecting this at all. She has supporters and detractors but her entry makes it less likely that Bass avoids a runoff. Interesting times in the city of L.A.!
Just came here to post this! Nithya is my rep and I’m very excited to see her take the plunge. I will definitely be supporting her in the Mayoral Race.
FL-16: The first candidate for Republicans here is Eddie Speir, a former trustee of the New College of Florida and conservative activist that held Vern Buchanan to a 20 point victory in the 2024 primary.
TN-Gov: Republican activist Gary Loe filed a complaint against Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn, claiming she violated federal campaign laws by siphoning money from her Senate campaign to her gubernatorial campaign.
Nonpartisan but still impressive
This may honestly be more shocking than TX last weekend
Looks like gerrymandering doesn't work if EVERYBODY is mad at you.
This is BAD news for Republicans who have gerrymandered themselves majorities in NC, GA, FL, OH and elsewhere.
November is going to be a bloodbath.
GOP: “But, but, we always got wins through gerrymandering!”
I think NC GOP will lose quite a few seats here in the legislature this year, if the rural special election in LA is any indication as well as the state TX Senate race. One of them could very well be the corrupt power hungry leader himself, Phil Berger, be it in March or November.
NC Senate and House R seats that are vulnerable in a similar blue wave environment? I'm going to be generous and assume anything up to R+15 are up for grabs.
NC Sen - D1 (Hanig, won by 57%), D2 (Sanderson, 56%), D3 (Brinson, 59.9%), D4 (Newton, 55.5%), D7 (Lee, 52.2%), D11 (Barnes, 51.3%), D21 (McInnis, won by 62.7%), D25 (Galey, 60%), D26 (Berger, 54%)
NC House has way too many to count (120), but what I've noticed about at least half of those R-held 71 seats were won in the 50-64% range. Democrats need to hold all their current seats and flip only 12 of those R-held seats to win an outright majority in the state House, possibly gain momentum to win a supermajority there. But they need to flip six out of the 9 state Senate Rs to oust Berger from the majority.
Cue Republicans blabbering "it's a special election, lower turnout" copium for their base.
And yet FL is still going forward with their gerrymandering but it would be hilarious if it blows up in their faces just like it did in TX.
Imagine if Ohio or Florida required a special election to fill the vacant senate seat instead of a governor's appointment that lasts until the regular elections.
I'd love to have seen a special senate election in this environment before the midterms. No better early gauge of the electorate's mood than that.
I think Texas and other GOP redistricting efforts were founded on the assumption that 2024 represented a sudden "new normal" whose voting patterns would continue indefinitely--which was a foolish idea even a year ago.
RDS was doing a press conference on it like the other day. He’s so dumb.
It didn't yet blow up in their faces in TX.
Where were they when Texas did this?
Exactly! Jeff Besoz can go take a long walk on a short Greenland pier!
Dick Tracy: “Who destroyed the Washington Post?”
Mumbles: “Behhhoh deee eee”
Dick Tracy: “Who?!”
Mumbles: “Bezos did it!”
I think that bodes well for Bobby Pulido.
And all of our statewide candidates. I know we've been burned before and I'm a pessimist on this stuff, but I'm starting to believe we have a shot in TX this year...
A Dem isn’t winning here and ID could do worse than Little considering how batshit the Panhandle faction is, but why not give him a race?
Good.
But the Dow Jones hit 50,000 today! Seriously, someone at RRH Elections mentioned that and wondered "why are we talking about Truth Social posts when the economy is going gangbusters?" He surely speaks for most Republicans in wondering about that.
To which the answer is, if your response to voter discontent regarding the economy is "Looky looky Wall Street!", then you're part of the problem, at least politically. When working and middle class people are having a hard time finding jobs or getting raises, and are having difficulty affording even basic things (a problem worsened by tariffs however much the GOP may deny it), they don't give a shit about stock prices and how well the "Investor class" is doing.
And the supposedly glorious economy of 2018 didn't exactly rescue the GOP, and if anything they're probably in worse shape now.
The economic conditions of 2018 probably did help the GOP on the margins, but such sentiments aren’t bailing them out now. That’s for sure
Even in this Pew, less than half of Republicans themselves think the economy is good - the online right is so disconnected from events on the ground, even on their side of the aisle.
The caveat is the graph shows Amsricans have felt the economy was shitty since Covid.
I suspect that we are at a time where the economy is going to be shitty for most people no matter who is in the White House and therefore we could see a series of weak one term presidents.
As long as the tariffs are reduced or outright eliminated in the first term of the next POTUS, I doubt this to be the case.
Right now, the tariffs are the biggest liability to the economy. Besides the prices of goods potentially going down because of this, if there’s an economic stimulus that gets passed in Congress, that mitigates the potential concerns.
Alexis Hill should switch from the governor's race to this race
Sigal Chattah also called for Aaron Ford's lynching though. I'm sure Republicans will nominate a crazy motherfucker, but do we really think someone will say something as bad as that again?
There’s some kooks in that part of the state, to be sure. That said, the balance of its population is Washoe
Depends on who Rs run. If one of Sandoval’s buddies jumps in (he’s basically the chieftain of Reno politics) we probably don’t have a chance. If it’s some Ammon Bundy adjacent nut then, maybe. Amodei was conservative but not crazy, and Dean Heller was relatively mainstream R for most of his career
I haven’t checked in a while but didn’t Danny Tarkanian used to be a Douglas County supervisor? Hilarious if he were to run here. That would put it to tossup to me if a Dem state legislator were to run
He's still in office there. (The only office he's ever won.)
I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happens in the Allam v. Foushee primary.
I voted for Nida BTW. I want more outspoken representation in Congress, not corporate Dems hewing to the middle.
Or the IL-9 Primary.
IL-09 is a real candidate for an upset with changed party primary dynamics. It's an interesting one to watch, as Biss is still a progressive himself.
If you're a Never Trump Republican, why do you sometimes support progressives? Genuinely asking.
My views are all over the place.
Will you early vote and vote her again next week?
I already voted absentee by mail for her in the March 3rd primary. Voted for her, Gov Cooper, and James Whalen (for NC Court of Appeals)
Why is Schneider calling Mejia a “far left” candidate? Why help republican messaging?
At this point, anything to the left of Bill Clinton is "far left" to some centrists.
Which is interesting because Clinton even after the beginning of his first term as POTUS is still talking about the need for getting more of a universal healthcare system now than what already exists. This comes in light of the increased costs in healthcare premiums.
https://time.com/5703769/bill-clinton-time-100-health-summit-healthcare/
That, and up until the 1994 midterm disaster Clinton was pretty liberal; triangulation was a response to Gingrich, after all
Newt Gingrich’s intentionally-toxic language recommendations for Republican politicians was a precursor of Trump’s rise and MAGA. That language, including the frequent term "the radical Left" for moderate Democrats and their policy suggestions, was widely adopted by Mitch McConnell and many, many other Republicans.
I do believe Gingrich was, and still is, a sincere Fascist.
I believe the same about Frank Luntz, who cooked up a lot of the snarl words and attacks that Gingrich deployed.
Fun fact: Luntz has never released any of the polling data he based his career on (supposedly) collecting. I think he just makes shit up.
It’s been argued by conservatives that William Buckley was the one who gave rise to Newt Gingrich, Rush Limbaugh and others with his ideology a long time in the making. But Gingrich was also the original terrorist in Congress back in the 80’s.
On the other hand, back in 2005 Newt Gingrich did work with Hillary Clinton on pushing electronic medical record standards.
https://californiahealthline.org/morning-breakout/editorial-praises-health-care-it-efforts-of-sen-hillary-rodham-clinton-former-house-speaker-newt-gingrich/
I’m generally favorable to Clinton’s presidency, but NAFTA was before Gingrich was Speaker.
To be precise, NAFTA as an agreement began with President George HW Bush but Clinton in his first year as POTUS back in 1993 signed off of it.
Triangulation was a response to McGovern.
Because he’s a DLC/ NewDem/Blue Dog.
Yeah, they crossed a line by sandbagging a candidate for something that has nothing to do with American-Israeli relations. It's mission creep that makes you less effective like what happened with the Sierra Club.
I don't think you're right. They were mad at him for not being a down-the-line uncritical supporter of giving a blank check to Netanyahu at all times.
Yeah, they pushed a lot of progressive voters to Mejia, and a lot of the center left votes he needed to fend off Mejia to other candidates like Way and Gill. He got more votes than the latter two combined in VBM. He finished behind Way on ED.
Not what you asked, but related to your topic, I’m glad to hear Team USA was cheered but Jd Vance and Usha were loudly and immediately
Booed by the crowd at the opening ceremony
Interesting. Reading Reddit you’d think the world wanted us dead. At least that’s what I saw when I made the mistake of looking it up.
I’m seriously considering deleting my account there again. Should I?
Reddit is the asshole of the Internet, other than niche specialty subs I’d avoid it.
ESPECIALLY political subs of any kind. Half of it is bots and another quarter is shitpodts
It's probably the second biggest asshole after Elon's site. At least most Reddit users vote Democratic (unless it might disrupt their ideological purity and alleged personal moral superiority.)
Twitter is the taint of the Internet. Assholes at least have some use!
Awww, I posted my Vance joke in the daily post by mistake.
Probably not so much Usha, but JD certainly deserved it.
Reflecting on my post from last weekend that looked forward to elections on the horizon, the Texas special turned out far better than I would dare even dream. NJ-11 was icing on top. Good to see a brazen carpet bagger punished.
My updated outlook to races on the horizon:
1. I wasn’t even tracking the Louisiana special scheduled for tomorrow. I’m now interested in that, but will not jinx it.
2. The Texas primaries on March 3rd: I obviously want Talarico to win outright and for Paxton-Cornyn to go to a runoff. I’m also interested in seeing who people are supporting in other Texas primaries: AG, LG, and the like? Nathan Johnson seems the most-well funded Dem AG candidate. Hopefully Republicans get forced into a runoff there. I would have guesses Vikki Goodwin was a favorite for LG, but maybe not?
3. North Carolina, also on March 3rd: I’ll be watching the rebels in the Democratic caucus that overrode Governor Stein’s vetoes. Also hoping for Jamie Ager in NC-11.
4. WISC on April 7th: looks like Dems have started airing ads. Let the slaughtering begin.
NC-4 could be one to watch. Allam is fundraising well and now has David Hogg’s PAC money on her side. It will be interesting.
The prophecy of a November Blue Tsunami is written in ketchup on the walls of Mar-a-Lago!
In TX I'm looking to see if there's a backlash to Cuellar and Gonzalez over the DHS bill vote from a few weeks ago.
I would also keep an eye here in NC whether power hungry state Senate leader Phil Berger (who I despise) will finally be ousted by MAGA police chief Sam Page or whether he'll be badly damaged after winning. He only won 54% of the vote in 2024 (not a commanding lead in a presidential year), so if everything goes right, Rs would lose their power broker AND a seat in the state Senate.
IMO It's amazing how the WISC race is getting almost no attention at all while last year's was hyped to hell and back (I suppose the hype was because court control was at stake, as well as the involvement of the Elongated Muskrat.)
What happens in the WOW counties will be interesting too. Will this be the race that finally flips Ozaukee?
That and it was one of the first elections to organize around to show displeasure with Trump's insane early days, and it basically had airwaves to itself in the electoral lane. Now so much more crazy shit has been going on and lots of other campaigns in the air drowning it out.
It feels like it was years ago.
I think that the WI court race last year was particularly important because of the Muskrat: it was at least the beginning of the end for the narrative that Elon had recast the GOP as a sleek machine that would own the future, or at least that his $$ could reliably rescue Republicans in trouble.
Yeah, that race was an important chink in Elon’s then-armor and it only accelerated from there. Especially with Liberation Day happening right around the same time. Taken together that really derailed what up to then had basically been two months of Trumpist “inevitability”
It definitely helped to puncture the obnoxious inevitability narrative, that's for sure.
I think Elon really thought that throwing obscene amounts of money at any race was a surefire way to win.
Taylor is a strong candidate, and Lazar feels like she's taking one for the team. Most in-state GOP energy is focused on holding the lege and winning the gov race.
I gotta say no one should ever take DDHQ's "calls" seriously again. They have no standard I can see beyond "call a race if someone is ahead by 5 points with half the vote in", they've had constant near-mistakes where they call races early that end up going down to the wire, and then there's their outright incorrect calls, like last night, Seattle mayor, the 2020 MO-01 Dem primary, 2018 CA-21...their "we get 99% of calls right" metric is useless, sure I can call West Virginia and Massachusetts too. But if they can't be trusted to be right in close races, then...what's even the point? Blowing a call every couple years (with multiple other near misses they pretend don't happen) is an unacceptable rate, if it even happens a single time it's a disaster for your credibility and should prompt operational changes to ensure it never happens again. And for these mistakes to keep happening years after all of us became highly aware of the fact that the early and late vote counts can be radically different...embarrassing!
Final thoughts: https://imgur.com/a/tj8sutK
Okay the meme made me laugh lol.
Malinowski was up by 25 points in the VBM. Clay was only up by 12 and Harrell by 8 on the initial drops. His lead seemed insurmountable to a degree that the other two didn't.
We're several years into the significant growth of VBM, and media orgs have had those years to learn that there are wide discrepencies in how people vote depending on if they vote by VBM or on election day, or by early voting. There's even major differences in early versus late VBM.
I don't think up 25 points with that very early data is justified as insurmountable. Especially in a primary, which tends to be much more volatile than a general election. Unlike in a general election, in a primary every candidate is broadly appealing to the entire electorate.
It's baffling that they chase the early calls to me. Get one wrong, OK, everyone makes at least one mistake at some point. But they keep making the mistakes over and over again. They aren't learning from it; if anything they seem to have learned that no one will hold them to account for the mistakes and they can afford to be even sloppier. They're chasing engagement, credibility be damned.
I wish there was more willingness for non-calls in the style of the NYT needle: state which candidate is favored based on the results. Even re-use the lean/likely/tossup language we use. I certainly do not know the vote geography of all that many places and would find this useful!
Half-Assed Decision Desk HQ sounds more like it.
Are they a conservative group? All of those examples you site involve an overeagerness to call a race against the more progressive candidate.
LA Mayor:
https://www.latimes.com/california/newsletter/2026-01-31/will-lindsey-horvath-run-for-mayor-la-on-the-record
LA County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath is considering a bid. How is she?
Further to the right of Bass
Would have loved to see Mejia take a crack at it but looks like we're stuck with Bass.
Mejia is seriously endangered in his own re-election campaign, so he probably wouldn't do so well.
I might just be in my progressive LA Politics bubble out here but I didn't realize that he was in danger of losing. I was under the impression that he was doing a decent job, and while he had a bit of a rocky start has settled into the job. Why do you think Sokoloff or Hall are a serious threat to his re-election?
Sokoloff in particular has picked up major establishment support and fundraising
Paul Koretz had major establishment support and was ahead in fundraising and he still lost by 25+ points. Mejia is the incumbent now too, so I feel like that means a bit. Is there anything else that Mejia has done that he's endangered this cycle?
Essentially what does this mean in LA city politics?
That is not a meaningful description of either Karen Bass or Lindsey Horvath. Both are in the liberal to progressive range (and I have voted for both of them in the past.) Lindsey was clearly the more progressive choice when she ran for Supervisor against Bob Hertzberg. Karen was the better choice in her first run for Mayor against Rick Caruso. A potential challenge would be more about competence and accountability than an ideological difference between the two of them. Bass is vulnerable based on her leadership after the fires last year as well as the usual longtime issues in L.A. (housing affordability, homelessness and traffic/transportation issues among others.)
Today is the deadline for people to file to run so we will soon have clarity about who is actually in the race. The big news the other day was that Austin Beutner, who would have been the strongest moderate candidate, decided to drop out because of a family tragedy. His daughter died last month somewhat mysteriously. There is a right-wing reality show actor candidate, Spencer Pratt, who is running to sell more copies of his new book. There is a left-wing DSA person, activist Rae Huang, who will get some support, but is unlikely to make it to the runoff. Bass needs 50%+1 to avoid a runoff which she might get is there are no major moderate candidates. In a nonpartisan race it does not automatically go on to November is somebody gets a majority. I am not predicting she will get the majority because there is a lot of discontent among the voters. Why would anyone want to be mayor at this difficult time?
I think Lindsey would be making a mistake by running for Mayor of Los Angeles. She would have to give up her seat on the Board of Supes. She was one of the leaders of the county government reorganization (increasing the size of the Board and establishing a County Executive) and maybe should focus on the county issues. She would be a good candidate for the new job of County Executive once it is set up. She is young (early 40s) and ambitious so she sees an opportunity, but I feel like her long-term career interests would be better in L.A. County government than as the city's chief flak catcher.
Update: she isn’t running.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-02-06/county-supervisor-lindsey-horvath-will-not-run-for-los-angeles-mayor
Lindsey Horvath is a smart person. She is staying at the county job of Supervisor and will remain one of the "Five Little Queens". (In the old days the Supes were called the Five Little Kings because of their large executive and legislative powers. Now the Board is all women.)
Thanks for providing the link. The newest development is that City Councilmember Nithya Raman (CD-04) is running for Mayor. She will take over the left lane in the race, having the same base as Rae Huang but with electoral success and governing experience. Raman was re-elected in 2024 so she does not have to give up her seat on the Council. I was not expecting this at all. She has supporters and detractors but her entry makes it less likely that Bass avoids a runoff. Interesting times in the city of L.A.!
Just came here to post this! Nithya is my rep and I’m very excited to see her take the plunge. I will definitely be supporting her in the Mayoral Race.
https://www.ktiv.com/2026/02/06/matt-windschitl-withdraws-race-iowas-4th-congressional-district/
IA-4: State Rep. Matt Windschitl is out and is also retiring from the legislature after Trump endorsed Chris McGowan yesterday.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/conservative-firebrand-vows-purge-rinos-battle-replace-retiring-vern-buchanan-open-florida-seat?msockid=29cacfc12e3f6f8d392cdb5d2fa66ea0
FL-16: The first candidate for Republicans here is Eddie Speir, a former trustee of the New College of Florida and conservative activist that held Vern Buchanan to a 20 point victory in the 2024 primary.
https://www.newschannel5.com/news/newschannel-5-investigates/marsha-blackburn-faces-allegations-of-flagrant-violations-of-campaign-laws-in-race-for-tennessee-governor
TN-Gov: Republican activist Gary Loe filed a complaint against Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn, claiming she violated federal campaign laws by siphoning money from her Senate campaign to her gubernatorial campaign.
Let them fight.gif