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Paleo's avatar

Australia

Labor has won the election and will form government, either in minority or majority, Australia's national broadcaster the ABC has declared.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cevdw14r1mgt

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PollJunkie's avatar

Albo did a smart thing, he pointed out that there was inflation due to COVID shocks and the war in America, Europe and every other nation which he couldn't possibly have caused. But Americans are too stupid to understand this even if Harris repeated this point.

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Paleo's avatar

As in Canada, a lot has to do with the reaction to Trump:

It's quite a remarkable turnaround from the start of the year, when polling put PM Anthony Albanese's popularity at record lows after three years of global economic pain, tense national debate, and growing government dissatisfaction.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Poilievre was very unfairly compared to Trump imo, Peter Dutton is closer to him in rhetoric and policies. He lost his seat too.

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Kevin H.'s avatar

You think? Poilievre was a convoy supporter, hung out with the typical MAGA cretins, seemed like a fair comparison to Trump style trolling.

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PollJunkie's avatar

He did that to win the party primary and distanced himself from those cretins after that.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Then he deserved to be tarred with pandering to them and being untrustworthy.

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slothlax's avatar

The results seem to reflect that. Poilievre's party gained vote share and seats, Dutton's lost both.

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axlee's avatar

That was more because LPC was in a 20pt hole when with Trudeau.

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dragonfire5004's avatar

I strongly disagree. If anyone except Poilievre was leading the Conservatives, they would be in power right now. In Canada, it isn’t like America, no matter how much the Conservative hardcore base wants it to be. Kindness, respect, compassion for others and working together are things all Canadians from left to most of the right value. In person it’s a near universal set of values we share, less so online. And we HATE blowhard braggarts, especially ones who sound exactly like the bully in the White House. Poilievre is what lost them the 2025 election, himself alone with his “Canada First” campaign.

How can I be so sure? Easy. Look at opinion polls of Canadians on the current economy taken during the campaign. They blame the Liberals for inflation, for the lack of affordable housing, for the rising crime in certain suburban areas. Majority after majority said they wanted change from the Trudeau government. They liked the Conservatives party platform. The Liberals never should have had a chance with such daunting opposition.

What was the 1 and only stat from Canadians that went against the Conservatives specifically? Poilievre’s “likability” deficit. He never once got a positive approval ratings from voters. That’s what sealed his party’s fate. Don’t believe me? Ask Conservative MP’s themselves:

Ahmar Khan

@AhmarSKhan

Robert Fife on CBC’s Power and Politics re: Conservative MPs feelings about Pierre Poilievre.

“MPs have told me that they found it really difficult going door-to-door because a lot of people were saying ‘we some of the policies you’re doing, but we think your leader is a dick’.”

Erin O’Toole would be PM right now, so would Doug Ford, Tim Houston or any other prominent Conservative that isn’t Poilievre (or even a backbencher for that matter). Canadian voters voted for Conservatives in unprecedented numbers because they couldn’t handle the problems with the economy in the country. They voted for Liberals to make sure Poilievre specifically wouldn’t be PM.

He did not create a massive pro-Conservative party vote gain, although he succeeded doing some of that. What he did was ride an anti-current situation vote, people who were done with the party in charge because they didn’t like the economy and would vote Conservative no matter what to get the Liberals out.

In fact the only Conservative who underperformed was Poilievre himself, losing his seat, while his party gained a bunch of seats. Can’t be any much clearer of a message voters send than that.

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slothlax's avatar

The argument is that Dutton is even worse, not that Poilievre is good.

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Paleo's avatar

O’Toole and Houston may be PM now because they are less right-wing than Polieivre. It was his ideology more than his personality that did him in. Trump

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Henrik's avatar

Curious who will replace Dutton - Andrew Hastie, maybe?

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michaelflutist's avatar

That kind of margin for either party is unusual in Australia, isn't it?

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Paleo's avatar

Not up enough on Australian electoral history to say.

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axlee's avatar

As counted so far, you need to go back to WWII to find the Labor achieving this kind of two party margin.

The late-count pre-poll votes may change the picture a bit though.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Do you know the last time the Liberals got this degree of electoral success?

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Henrik's avatar

Damn, I figured Labor would

Hold on but not by those margins. Did the Teals largely get wiped out?

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axlee's avatar

The Teals seem to hold on well. Maybe even expand one seat.

This is not FPTP. The affluent moderates don’t have to rank Labor first to prevent the Coalition.

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