I did some back of the envelope math. Correct me if I'm wrong, but would a 14-point enthusiasm gap translates into, like, eight million votes nationwide or even more. I know the enthusiasm gap won't fully show up as a turnout gap, but it still could translate into huge numbers.
Does anyone have a good idea of how enthusiasm gaps do typically translate? And to what extent is enthusiasm already factored in as polls model turnout composition?
Democratic enthusiasm up big according to Gallup.
https://x.com/johngramlich/status/1829139993828438440
I did some back of the envelope math. Correct me if I'm wrong, but would a 14-point enthusiasm gap translates into, like, eight million votes nationwide or even more. I know the enthusiasm gap won't fully show up as a turnout gap, but it still could translate into huge numbers.
Does anyone have a good idea of how enthusiasm gaps do typically translate? And to what extent is enthusiasm already factored in as polls model turnout composition?
Lots of good details on the Gallup site BTW: https://news.gallup.com/poll/649397/democrats-drive-surge-election-enthusiasm.aspx