Leading Off
SC-Sen
Sen. Darline Graham drew the worst headlines of her month-old campaign on Tuesday night with a debate gaffe that sparked fresh questions about whether she’s about to become the latest Trump-backed candidate to lose in a primary.
“Senator, are Taiwan and the South China Sea national security issues for the United States? If so, why?” moderator Greta Van Susteren asked Graham during her faceoff with Rep. Ralph Norman.
“I’m just going to be honest here,” the senator responded. “I’m not on national security that—I’m not that informed on national security so … but I do support the military.”
Graham continued by talking about how her late brother and immediate predecessor, Lindsey Graham, had spent more than three decades in the Air Force before saying, “I’m not a polished politician up here. National security is not my thing, not my area of expertise, but I do support the military.”
Norman’s supporters quickly argued that Graham’s response showed that the senator, who’d never held elected office before Gov. Henry McMaster appointed her last month to replace her brother, was an unacceptable choice in next week’s runoff.
“Lindsey Graham was well informed on the United States’ national security. Darline Graham admits she’s not,” tweeted former Gov. Nikki Haley. “This is not something you inherit. And it’s critical in the U.S. Senate.”
Graham’s team had reason to feel wary about her prospects even before she delivered that response on Tuesday.
Journalist Jake Lahut, in his newsletter Straight from the Hut, wrote the following morning that while his sources still believe the incumbent has the advantage next week, they have become “increasingly worried about a highly scripted and buttoned up campaign from her.”
Lahut says Graham has done little campaigning and, when she has made appearances, an aide stands behind her “mouthing answers.”
Norman’s allies are also pressing their case that conservatives should be wary of Graham in a new round of ads.
“What if Darline Graham had any other last name?” asks the narrator in a commercial for Palmetto First PAC. “Do we really know where she stands? Darline won’t tell us.”
Graham’s backers, by contrast, argue Norman has already shown why he shouldn’t be trusted in their latest TV spots.
“Ralph Norman betrayed President Trump by endorsing against him in 2024,” declares the narrator for Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, a group funded by wealthy clean energy investors. The ad does not note that Norman backed Haley’s long-shot primary campaign against Trump that year before supporting him in the general election.
Invest in Tomorrow told Politico last week it wanted Norman to lose to punish him for leading the push to use Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” to repeal tax credits for wind and solar energy. Its ad, though, faults the congressman for initially opposing that legislation. Norman, who said he wanted more restrictions on Medicaid, ultimately fell into line.
Trump himself is also seeking to boost Graham during the final days of the campaign. The White House announced at the beginning of the week that Trump, who has largely used virtual “tele-rallies” to promote his preferred candidates this cycle, will hold an in-person event for her on Friday in Myrtle Beach.
Trump has additionally worked behind the scenes to help Graham, who led Norman 33-25 in the first round of voting last week, secure a win in the runoff.
Multiple media outlets report that Rep. Russell Fry, who took third with 20%, backed Graham on Friday after Trump pushed him to do so. The New York Times described the interaction with the headline, “Trump Pressured Russell Fry to Endorse Darline Graham for Senate. So He Did.”
Trump’s ardent support for Graham comes amidst a difficult stretch for him at the ballot box. On Tuesday, the same night as the senator’s debate, three of Trump’s picks lost high-profile primaries in Florida and Wyoming. Those defeats came just after similar failures to get his chosen candidates across the finish line in Michigan, Tennessee, and Minnesota.
And the South Carolina Senate race isn’t the only contest on Tuesday where Trump’s pick is in danger of losing.
Recent polls of the Republican primary runoff for Oklahoma’s open governorship show former state Sen. Mike Mazzei, who has Trump’s endorsement, locked in a close race against Attorney General Gentner Drummond. MAGA’s master has repeatedly made his disgust for Drummond known, including on Tuesday in a lengthy Truth Social post blasting the candidate and his wife as “Radical Left Dumocrats.”
The Downballot Podcast
Democrats claim another big special election victory
Democrat Brandon Dukes won the last special election before November and became the 31st Democrat to flip a legislative seat since the beginning of 2025—compared to zero for Republicans.
On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay discuss that race as well as the last big primary night of 2026, with a big upset in Florida’s Democratic Senate primary.
Then in our deep dive, we talk to state Sen. Cindy Holscher, the Democratic nominee for governor of Kansas, about her race. She tells us how she got into politics during former Gov. Sam Brownback’s disastrous time in office and how Democrats have strengthened in Kansas during the Trump era. We also discuss her call for a data center moratorium in the state, why it’s become such a big issue for voters, and how to support economic growth while ensuring everyday people aren’t left out of the benefits.
Subscribe here on your favorite podcast app to make sure you never miss an episode.
Redistricting Roundup
MO Redistricting, MO Ballot
A state judge issued separate rulings Wednesday affirming that Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins had lawfully blocked proposals to repeal Missouri’s new congressional map and to restrict the legislature’s ability to interfere with citizen-backed ballot initiatives. The campaigns behind each plan immediately announced they would appeal.
House
CA-34
A woman has accused Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez of sexually harassing and assaulting her, her attorneys said Wednesday.
“We represent one of the women who was interviewed by the House Committee on Ethics about her experience of sexual harassment and assault by Representative Jimmy Gomez,” attorneys Lisa Banks and Sarah Nesbitt wrote in a statement shared on social media. “Contrary to Representative Gomez’s assertion in his statement, his actions were not ‘consensual in nature’ with respect to our client.”
The statement, which did not identify the client or detail the allegations, came two days after the Ethics Committee confirmed it was investigating “sexual misconduct” allegations against Gomez, including “inappropriate sexual contact with a House staffer.”
Gomez, in a statement similar to one he released in June, responded, “Although my actions were consensual in nature and haven’t violated the law or House Ethics rules, that doesn’t diminish the impact that these mistakes have made on those I care about the most.” He continued, “I take full responsibility and have committed myself to working through the pain privately with my wife and family.”
A spokesperson for Gomez responded to Politico’s questions about the new allegations by referring to a previous statement.
Gomez faces Angela Gonzales-Torres, a community activist and fellow Democrat, in the general election to represent California’s 34th District, a safely Democratic seat in Los Angeles.
NH-01
Former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen on Tuesday launched the first negative ad of the busy Sept. 8 Democratic primary for New Hampshire’s 1st District, a contest that has seen Shaheen lead in all available polling.
The new spot accuses Marine veteran Maura Sullivan, the only Democrat who has outraised Shaheen, of getting “90% of her campaign money” from outside the state. “$300,000 bundled from AIPAC donors,” charges the narrator, “$380,000 from Jeff Bezos’s PAC, even from Trump’s ICE contractor”
The New Hampshire Union Leader reported in March that Sullivan’s campaign had received $9,000 from two executives with the data surveillance giant Palantir. AIPAC, however, has not taken sides in this contest. Rather, according to a HuffPost story earlier this month, Sullivan has benefited from 150 contributions given by individuals who have also at some point contributed to AIPAC.
Sullivan’s campaign responded to the ad in a statement to the Union Leader saying the candidate “doesn’t take a dime from corporate PACs, ICE vendors, or AIPAC, and will fight to ban corporate PACs and abolish Trump’s ICE.” It continued, “Stefany clearly cannot win on her own, thin record, so she is making false and misleading attacks against a lifelong public servant and veteran.”
Sullivan and Shaheen, the daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, are two of the nine Democrats running to replace Rep. Chris Pappas, the leading Democrat in the race for the elder Shaheen’s Senate seat.
Both women are also the only contenders who have benefited from outside spending so far. FEC reports show Shaheen’s allies have spent about $1.6 million to promote her, while Sullivan’s backers have deployed a comparable $1.4 million.
Other candidates, though, are aiming to pull off an upset in this busy race. The main alternatives are Hampton Selectwoman Carleigh Beriont, state Rep. Heath Howard, and attorney Christian Urrutia.
A late June poll from Saint Anselm College showed Shaheen leading Sullivan 22-15, with Howard at 9% and no one else taking more than 3%. No surveys, however, have been released since then.
Four Republicans are campaigning to flip the 1st District, a constituency in the eastern part of the state that Kamala Harris carried by a tight 51-49 spread.
Wealthy real estate developer Anthony DiLorenzo received Donald Trump’s endorsement last month, but there have been no recent polls to indicate if that’s propelled him to frontrunner status. DiLorenzo faces state Rep. Brian Cole, businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky, and a little-known contender named Lindsey Anderson.
Poll Pile
MA-Sen (D): Public Policy Polling for The Majority Institute:
Ed Markey (inc): 59, Seth Moulton: 26.
MI-Sen: Susquehanna Polling and Research:
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 46, Mike Rogers (R): 39.
NY-21: J.L. Partners:
Anthony Constantino (R): 53, Blake Gendebien (D): 40.
PA-01: Global Strategy Group for Bob Harvie:
Brian Fitzpatrick (R-inc): 47, Harvie (D): 43.
AZ GOV Hobbs by a big bunch 48-35 https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2090431810521923986?s=20
That PA-1 internal is Not Great, Bob! Dunno why they released it.