Indiana Dems should use the "kicking ass" logo instead. No one really associates the Democrats with the Rooster anymore, though historically it was a common symbol of the party, and it's rather unfortunate that the Democrats have an animal that is sometimes prey for the Republicans' animal.
(Though assuming that is a bald eagle, they really prefer fish and would only go after birds or small mammals as a last resort. Golden eagles, on the other hand, do attack poultry.)
I would like for Indiana to end straight ticket voting. It causes problems in nonpartisan races where if a person votes straight ticket, then that person has no opportunity to vote in the nonpartisan races. That is partly why, the Indiana legislature is now "allowing" partisan indicators in school board races.
Kentucky also allows straight ticket voting, and mixes partisan and nonpartisan races on the same ballot. Selecting the straight ticket option *only* applies to partisan races. People who select it have to remember to vote in the nonpartisan races, but they're not blocked from doing so.
The GOP has nothing to run on anymore. They can do all the scare tactics they want, but the economy (the #1 issue for voters consistently) has been decimated and it is entirely the GOP’s fault. I mean think about it — what “accomplishments” can the GOP say they did? The only thing they “accomplished” is making us poorer and an international pariah at the same time.
It's interesting to me that it looks like Democrats are doing better in longshot, solidly GOP states than we would expect (KS, NE, SC, SD), while Republicans are at least polling the same in Democratic states (MN, NH, OR). Possibly "a pox on both parties" backlash?
I don't expect Repbulicans to win in Minnesota or Oregon (NH will be close imo, especially with Ayotte at the top of the ticket), but the fact they are polling better there than in some much redder states is interesting. I do think Dems have a legit shot in NE at the least and SC and KS could get interesting.
Well.....yeah. It's the scandal that brought down Walz that's tainting Dems in Minnesota. Nothing else gets talked about in Minnesota media at any level and hasn't for months. I've been shouting this from rooftops for the better part of a year and treated like the crazy uncle the whole time. The polling is increasingly bearing that out.
The national tide might save Minnesota Dems...or at least some of them, but the wave is almost assuredly gonna bypass the Gopher State this year. I'm waiting for MN-Sen to join NH-Sen in the Cook report "Tossup" category any day now.
I will bet anyone any amount of money they want that, barring some currently unknown scandal, we win MN-Sen and NH-Sen. Seriously, name your amount....
Exhaustion with local Democrats is likely the issue in holding down MN and OR margins in higher-profile races. Exhaustion with Republicans in the red states is probably the tide lifting all Democratic boats in places like NE and SD.
Republican pollsters flooding the timeline with BS numbers is par for the course. I remembered being worried in 2022 when seeing these polls. For those interested, here are some examples:
Yes, that poll was by a Republican pollster whose results frequently are more favorable to R's than unbiased polls. I never took the MN poll half seriously.
Looking at the poll, the sample is way too conservative. Only 51% saying they don't support Trump or his policies? Klobuchar (and Flannagan) with an underwater approval rating, but Tafoya and Demuth with a positive score? Entirely unserious.
The OR-Gov poll is a bit concerning. I sincerely hope a Green doesn’t cost us that seat. I know Kotek is unpopular with the left so I’m a little worried.
I don't think Kotek loses this year but from my perspective as an Oregon resident she really has no identity beyond "personification of the Dem establishment status quo"...
Regarding the Pacific Green Party candidate and Kotek's standing with the left, my perception is that the impression of Oregon as a high tax/low service state is setting in, especially with regards to a number of special purpose local taxes in the Portland area that support programs that have had management scandals and problems delivering results. This hurts Kotek from both sides, as the left wants good services (and one plausible lever to get there is to keep raising taxes to try to supply more resources, which could be a component of the problem but doesn't address management issues) and the center/right is unhappy with taxes. I think it is a real issue!
On the Congressional generic ballot question, Democrats lead 62%-36%.
Re the billionaire tax (40), people need to be aware that there are two competing measures (41 and 42) also on the ballot which would effectively cancel it. They are also both leading. Under the CA law, if two competing ballot measures both pass, the one receiving the most “yes” votes becomes law.
MI-Sen: Former Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI), 95, spoke out publicly in support of Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed. While not unexpected, it goes against more moderate forces in his party who are hesitant to support El-Sayed. His son Andy, who succeeded him, lost renomination to Haley Stevens after their districts were combined in 2022, and Stevens lost to El-Sayed in the Senate primary.
GA: Jon Ossoff has transferred more than $3.6 million into the Democratic Party of Georgia’s coordinated campaign to help Democrats up and down the ballot.
Klobuchar up 2 and Flanagan up 1? Kotek down 2? Abdul underperforming and Pappas v. Sununu suddenly close... there's a lot to like here but also some worrying right-ward shifts, if these polls are to be believed.
CO-05!! I've been all-in on this one happening for the past year. Disastrous conditions for Republicans in this district, statewide, and nationally of course. The next OK-05 (2018) except it won't even be that much of a shocker when it happens.
CA-6: Rep. Kevin Kiley, an independent and former Republican, says he won't caucus with his old party if he wins reelection. He currently still votes with them on most issues.
Which state, county, and local races are you watching most closely? Are there any races on that level that could decide a legislature’s composition, provide clues as to which areas are trending in which directions, etc. I’m looking for some more local races to keep an eye on in November, and I’m curious to see what you guys think are worth watching.
GCB Marquette:
D 51 R 38 (LVs)
D 50 R 42 (RVs)
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/09/15/detailed-results-of-the-marquette-law-school-supreme-court-poll-september-2-9-2026/
Indiana Dems should use the "kicking ass" logo instead. No one really associates the Democrats with the Rooster anymore, though historically it was a common symbol of the party, and it's rather unfortunate that the Democrats have an animal that is sometimes prey for the Republicans' animal.
(Though assuming that is a bald eagle, they really prefer fish and would only go after birds or small mammals as a last resort. Golden eagles, on the other hand, do attack poultry.)
I would like for Indiana to end straight ticket voting. It causes problems in nonpartisan races where if a person votes straight ticket, then that person has no opportunity to vote in the nonpartisan races. That is partly why, the Indiana legislature is now "allowing" partisan indicators in school board races.
For most of the time Texas used straight ticket voting, it was prohibited from having partisan and non-partisan elections on the same ballot.
Kentucky also allows straight ticket voting, and mixes partisan and nonpartisan races on the same ballot. Selecting the straight ticket option *only* applies to partisan races. People who select it have to remember to vote in the nonpartisan races, but they're not blocked from doing so.
Same for SC
That last comment is true, I love me a Popeye's chicken sandwich.
To me the Republican bird looks more like an andean condor than bald eagle.
Ohio You Gov/Bowling Green: Acton and Brown both lead 48-45.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/16DCSUQaBOGTTk0u3flp6q0uwC6AO8euZ/view
I guess I am going to see more ads about how Brown wants to make your kid Trans and that Amy Acton once had a drinking problem.
The GOP has nothing to run on anymore. They can do all the scare tactics they want, but the economy (the #1 issue for voters consistently) has been decimated and it is entirely the GOP’s fault. I mean think about it — what “accomplishments” can the GOP say they did? The only thing they “accomplished” is making us poorer and an international pariah at the same time.
It's interesting to me that it looks like Democrats are doing better in longshot, solidly GOP states than we would expect (KS, NE, SC, SD), while Republicans are at least polling the same in Democratic states (MN, NH, OR). Possibly "a pox on both parties" backlash?
I don't expect Repbulicans to win in Minnesota or Oregon (NH will be close imo, especially with Ayotte at the top of the ticket), but the fact they are polling better there than in some much redder states is interesting. I do think Dems have a legit shot in NE at the least and SC and KS could get interesting.
No such thing as a pox on both parties backlash. And no reason why it would appear in some states and not others.
NH -- Republicans have their strongest possible recruit (check how the VT-AL race went in the 2006 wave)
OR -- Kotek got under 50% in 2022 and has never been popular
MN -- Don't have a solid reason other than the scandal that brought down Walz is tainting other Dems?
Democratic Party approval rating is not much higher than Republican Party. Trump is the extra anchor around the GOP.
Well.....yeah. It's the scandal that brought down Walz that's tainting Dems in Minnesota. Nothing else gets talked about in Minnesota media at any level and hasn't for months. I've been shouting this from rooftops for the better part of a year and treated like the crazy uncle the whole time. The polling is increasingly bearing that out.
The national tide might save Minnesota Dems...or at least some of them, but the wave is almost assuredly gonna bypass the Gopher State this year. I'm waiting for MN-Sen to join NH-Sen in the Cook report "Tossup" category any day now.
I will bet anyone any amount of money they want that, barring some currently unknown scandal, we win MN-Sen and NH-Sen. Seriously, name your amount....
I may take the odds on NH. MN, no way. I was just pointing out that those states are polling closer or even better for Republicans at this point
Exhaustion with local Democrats is likely the issue in holding down MN and OR margins in higher-profile races. Exhaustion with Republicans in the red states is probably the tide lifting all Democratic boats in places like NE and SD.
I refuse to believe Amy Klobuchar is ahead by just two points. No other polling I know of has that result.
Yeah, Demuth might not even crack 40% let alone 45%.
There's no way. The GOP floor in MN is 42% or so. Lindell might have not gotten 40 but Demuth has no reason not to.
Lindell would have done at least as well as Royce White two years ago.
Republican pollsters flooding the timeline with BS numbers is par for the course. I remembered being worried in 2022 when seeing these polls. For those interested, here are some examples:
MI-Gov (D 54 R 44) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Michigan_gubernatorial_election#Polling_2
WI-Gov (D 51 R 48)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Wisconsin_gubernatorial_election#Polling_3
AZ-Sen (D 51 R 47)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona#Polling_2
All very strategic, show a closer race, but nothing too absurd, to drag down the average and sew doubt among the voters and pundits.
Yes, that poll was by a Republican pollster whose results frequently are more favorable to R's than unbiased polls. I never took the MN poll half seriously.
Looking at the poll, the sample is way too conservative. Only 51% saying they don't support Trump or his policies? Klobuchar (and Flannagan) with an underwater approval rating, but Tafoya and Demuth with a positive score? Entirely unserious.
They're calling it the worst poll to ever be released...
Not really. But any poll that has Amy fucking Klobuchar at only +2 should be immediately disregarded as completely irrelevant. Absolute nonsense.
Seriously...Klobuchar by 2 in this environment is a laughable poll result.
The OR-Gov poll is a bit concerning. I sincerely hope a Green doesn’t cost us that seat. I know Kotek is unpopular with the left so I’m a little worried.
One thing seems to be sure: the governor of Oregon will always be unpopular but win reelection anyways.
I don't think Kotek loses this year but from my perspective as an Oregon resident she really has no identity beyond "personification of the Dem establishment status quo"...
Regarding the Pacific Green Party candidate and Kotek's standing with the left, my perception is that the impression of Oregon as a high tax/low service state is setting in, especially with regards to a number of special purpose local taxes in the Portland area that support programs that have had management scandals and problems delivering results. This hurts Kotek from both sides, as the left wants good services (and one plausible lever to get there is to keep raising taxes to try to supply more resources, which could be a component of the problem but doesn't address management issues) and the center/right is unhappy with taxes. I think it is a real issue!
California PPIC:
Becerra 60-38
Wealth Tax: 52-46 Yes
Voter ID: 55-43 No
https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2026/
On the Congressional generic ballot question, Democrats lead 62%-36%.
Re the billionaire tax (40), people need to be aware that there are two competing measures (41 and 42) also on the ballot which would effectively cancel it. They are also both leading. Under the CA law, if two competing ballot measures both pass, the one receiving the most “yes” votes becomes law.
https://x.com/repsandylevin/status/2100027142104813987
MI-Sen: Former Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI), 95, spoke out publicly in support of Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed. While not unexpected, it goes against more moderate forces in his party who are hesitant to support El-Sayed. His son Andy, who succeeded him, lost renomination to Haley Stevens after their districts were combined in 2022, and Stevens lost to El-Sayed in the Senate primary.
Andy has also offered his strong support.
I’m not that surprised. I remember the Levin-Stevens primary being nasty.
This is also the seat his brother Carl once held.
GA: Jon Ossoff has transferred more than $3.6 million into the Democratic Party of Georgia’s coordinated campaign to help Democrats up and down the ballot.
He is just the best...
Klobuchar up 2 and Flanagan up 1? Kotek down 2? Abdul underperforming and Pappas v. Sununu suddenly close... there's a lot to like here but also some worrying right-ward shifts, if these polls are to be believed.
Narrator: These polls shouldn't have been believed.
2028: The Wisconsin Supreme Court is hearing arguments today on the challenge to the state's congressional map.
This will be the first time they're reviewing it as a 5-2 court
Crystal Ball. 8 house rating changes all in Democrats' favor:
NJ 7: Tossup to lean D
IA 2 and MI 4: Lean R to tossup
CO 5: Likely to Lean R
AR 2, NV 2, NY 21 and OH 10: Safe to likely R
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/seven-weeks-to-go-polling-not-getting-better-for-republicans-8-house-rating-changes/
I’ve been very happy with the number of times I’m hearing the words “rating changes” and “all in Democrats’ favor” lately.
CO-05!! I've been all-in on this one happening for the past year. Disastrous conditions for Republicans in this district, statewide, and nationally of course. The next OK-05 (2018) except it won't even be that much of a shocker when it happens.
I think we could do better for another OK-5. Maybe some Trump +20 seat somewhere?
With you on CO-05 and agree it is our OK-05 this cycle
https://www.semafor.com/article/09/16/2026/kiley-says-he-wont-caucus-with-republicans-if-reelected
CA-6: Rep. Kevin Kiley, an independent and former Republican, says he won't caucus with his old party if he wins reelection. He currently still votes with them on most issues.
This is a lie that he no doubt is saying to try and win.
Got a question for posters here.
Which state, county, and local races are you watching most closely? Are there any races on that level that could decide a legislature’s composition, provide clues as to which areas are trending in which directions, etc. I’m looking for some more local races to keep an eye on in November, and I’m curious to see what you guys think are worth watching.
I'm watching the North Dakota representative race. Trygve Hammer, the Democrat, is an excellent candidate. I've donated to his campaign.
A win there would be a huge surprise!
IA Senate. Hinson skipping Vance rally.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2100305202918093028?s=20
House adjourns to avoid vote on Kegsbreath impeachment.
https://abc7ny.com/story/house-adjourn-early-stave-off-hegseth-impeachment-votef/19840314/
Kegsbreath. I like the sound of it as opposed to Hegseth. ;)