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Zero Cool's avatar

MO-SEN Race:

Democratic Candidate Lucas Kunce's rally is getting packed attendees. Based on the pictures with a recent tweet by Kunce, these attendees are fired up. This on top of a recent internal poll showing Kunce is four points behind and the fact that he's consistently outraised Josh Hawley, this is not a race that's a fool's gold.

I am rating this Likely Republican. Feel free to disagree if you may but I have no reason to believe this is race with an extremely low chance of Kunce winning.

https://x.com/LucasKunceMO/status/1837562255946240012?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

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michaelflutist's avatar

I think it is fool's gold. I recall that Mondale had big crowds at his rallies late in the 1984 election campaign. Likely-R is generous but might be warranted. Race to watch only, IMO, and presumptively safe R.

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Jonathan's avatar

Imo if(this is huuuuuuge if); MO Senate is even competitive; then, Florida and Texas are already won by the Democratic candidate; honestly, I think all 3 are unlikely to say the least

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Caspian's avatar

Yes, if we're winning Missouri, we've already had a phenomenal night that utterly shatters all even vaguely realistic expectations - our 99.9th percentile, so to speak.

I think we have less than a one half of one percent chance to win Missouri. It would be just shy of a literal miracle. Nothing to even vaguely worry about or hope for.

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Jonathan's avatar

Kunce should be praised for his efforts and maybe even given a post in the Harris administration

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Tim Nguyen's avatar

Regardless of the outcome of the race, there's something important that often gets ignored here - actually having prolific campaigns with credible candidates means that both the party and candidate get more visibility. Moreover, it means that voters are more engaged on the issues and future campaign infrastructure is set up. This is the true value of the 50 state strategy - no one gets left behind and written off. As we've seen countless times in the past, constituents and voters that are neglected are at risk of losing engagement and are often easily influenced and manipulated by dubious media platforms like conservative radio and sites like Newsmax. It's much easier to push back against those influences and narratives when you have a popular candidate, especially if they're well funded and willing to do the hands on outreach.

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