Last time, Wisconsin was the closest, with a substantial margin between them and Pennsylvania, at least in terms of raw votes, but of course Pennsylvania is a much more populous state.
And the time before that was 1976; interesting to me is that in 1976, Carter won Pennsylvania, and lost New Jersey and Connecticut(had Carter lost Pennsylvania, the electoral college would have been Carter 270\Ford 267; there was a faithless elector I assume)
I can see how you get to a 3-4 point win in Wisconsin, Trump has largely crested in the rural areas, the suburbs continue to turn blue and the Dane population growth continues. I think if you get that, even with a slight improvement in PA, you could still very easily have a bigger margin in WI than PA.
1) State chair Ben Wikler is the best Dem chair in the country, IMHO.
2) WI Dems, after taking back the state SCT, and getting fair districts for the state (but not Congressional!) lines, really have a shot at taking back the state Assembly and have a shot to make Senate 8nroads as well.
3) Kamala spent some time Madison as a child. A chance to vote for one of your own usually helps.
4) Walz will have a bit more impact in WI than PA.
That's close to how I'd view it.
Very good: MI
Good: WI, NV
Better than OK: PA, NC
Tossup: AZ, GA
Very good:MI, WI
Good: NV
Better than Ok:PA, AZ
Tossup:NC, GA
What would account for a better performance in Wisconsin than Pennsylvania?
Not speaking for climate hawk, but imo Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will eventually vote all the same way(with marginal differences)
Last time, Wisconsin was the closest, with a substantial margin between them and Pennsylvania, at least in terms of raw votes, but of course Pennsylvania is a much more populous state.
I am going to work backwards and see the last time that they didn't vote the same(I honestly can't recall, so might be telling); and then I will post
In 1988 the 3 didn't vote the same; imo the pattern will be same this year
And the time before that was 1976; interesting to me is that in 1976, Carter won Pennsylvania, and lost New Jersey and Connecticut(had Carter lost Pennsylvania, the electoral college would have been Carter 270\Ford 267; there was a faithless elector I assume)
I can see how you get to a 3-4 point win in Wisconsin, Trump has largely crested in the rural areas, the suburbs continue to turn blue and the Dane population growth continues. I think if you get that, even with a slight improvement in PA, you could still very easily have a bigger margin in WI than PA.
For me, a couple things.
1) State chair Ben Wikler is the best Dem chair in the country, IMHO.
2) WI Dems, after taking back the state SCT, and getting fair districts for the state (but not Congressional!) lines, really have a shot at taking back the state Assembly and have a shot to make Senate 8nroads as well.
3) Kamala spent some time Madison as a child. A chance to vote for one of your own usually helps.
4) Walz will have a bit more impact in WI than PA.