Surprising to hear that about North Carolina. For several cycles it's been an elusive target, but close enough in all manner of races (no Florida 2022 style Dem implosion) to keep firmly in sight. Their internal polling must be looking better than most public polling which shows it tied at best. and I don't think Mark Robinson's apparent…
Surprising to hear that about North Carolina. For several cycles it's been an elusive target, but close enough in all manner of races (no Florida 2022 style Dem implosion) to keep firmly in sight. Their internal polling must be looking better than most public polling which shows it tied at best. and I don't think Mark Robinson's apparent implosion has THAT much upballot impact. Still, it's a big improvement from several months ago when the biggest question seemed to be if Trump coattails would carry Robinson through.
OTOH, their Pennsylvania polling must be less favourable than most public polling, which increasingly has shown the state moving out of "pure tossup" status, though far from locked up.
Really we have to win one of the following 3- Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina to win if we win Michigan,Wisconsin, and Nevada, where we have the best polls right now. Trump has to sweep these states.
This is the correct answer. Harris can't win without either PA, GA, or NC. These are the true tipping-point states. Most people have considered PA to be the main tipping-point state, since historically it has been bluer, but it's certainly possible for any of these three to become the state that pushes the winner over the line.
I think it has marginal up ballot impact and it's always been a marginal race, so campaign hard and let the chips fall where they may(I think the Robinson mess will manifest itself in the ground game, with the NCDP absolutely dominant)
Surprising to hear that about North Carolina. For several cycles it's been an elusive target, but close enough in all manner of races (no Florida 2022 style Dem implosion) to keep firmly in sight. Their internal polling must be looking better than most public polling which shows it tied at best. and I don't think Mark Robinson's apparent implosion has THAT much upballot impact. Still, it's a big improvement from several months ago when the biggest question seemed to be if Trump coattails would carry Robinson through.
OTOH, their Pennsylvania polling must be less favourable than most public polling, which increasingly has shown the state moving out of "pure tossup" status, though far from locked up.
Pennsylvania is the whole ballgame, so saying it is anything but a tossup would be political malpractice.
It's only the whole ballgame if we don't get NC though.
Really we have to win one of the following 3- Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina to win if we win Michigan,Wisconsin, and Nevada, where we have the best polls right now. Trump has to sweep these states.
This is the correct answer. Harris can't win without either PA, GA, or NC. These are the true tipping-point states. Most people have considered PA to be the main tipping-point state, since historically it has been bluer, but it's certainly possible for any of these three to become the state that pushes the winner over the line.
Is it, if it's stated privately, without attribution?
I think it has marginal up ballot impact and it's always been a marginal race, so campaign hard and let the chips fall where they may(I think the Robinson mess will manifest itself in the ground game, with the NCDP absolutely dominant)