We do ourselves no favors by just rejecting polls we don't like. We were absolutely right to trash the "unskewed polls" nonsense that the Romney camp made in 2012. Let's not turn around and do the same thing.
ItтАЩs fair to point out a 10 point swing to Trump pre to post disaster debate is unlikely. That may mean the first Harris +5 poll was too optimistic or the more recent +5 Trump poll is too pessimistic or both are off. Pointing out werid swings is not the same as saying everything is fine do no work and ignore the polls (though in general that might be healthy). The article itself states that polling average is to the left of sienas polls. Siena May be more accurate than the average or less.
Their PA Harris +4 and national tied from a bit back is literaallly impossible in the physical universe we occupy.
A combo of bad sample, having to make 10,000 calls per respones, small minority responses with extrapolations, and, IMHO, a flawed model of the 2024 electorate.
The swing of AZ from +5 Harris pre debate to +5 Trump post-debate is nonsensical.
Now seems like a good time to start ignoring the polls and just focus on GOTV in any of the 7 key swing states.
We do ourselves no favors by just rejecting polls we don't like. We were absolutely right to trash the "unskewed polls" nonsense that the Romney camp made in 2012. Let's not turn around and do the same thing.
ItтАЩs fair to point out a 10 point swing to Trump pre to post disaster debate is unlikely. That may mean the first Harris +5 poll was too optimistic or the more recent +5 Trump poll is too pessimistic or both are off. Pointing out werid swings is not the same as saying everything is fine do no work and ignore the polls (though in general that might be healthy). The article itself states that polling average is to the left of sienas polls. Siena May be more accurate than the average or less.
I'll take door #3 (both off). Harris probably isn't behind in AZ by 5 now, and likely never was or will be up by 5 there either.
Less than a point win in both 2020 and 2022 lends one to believe neither is correct.
Nah, just NYT.
Their PA Harris +4 and national tied from a bit back is literaallly impossible in the physical universe we occupy.
A combo of bad sample, having to make 10,000 calls per respones, small minority responses with extrapolations, and, IMHO, a flawed model of the 2024 electorate.