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Jonathan's avatar

Imo this is election related; how much the FED rate cut tomorrow affect the election?? Your opinions??

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Oggoldy's avatar

The fed rate is expected. If it's as expected a 0.25% cut happens, there won't be be an effect. If it's anything elsenandnit disrupts markets, I could affect the underlying economy, which would affect the election.

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Jonathan's avatar

I tend to disagree; I think it may have a marginal positive impact(and I think it has zero downside)

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ClimateHawk's avatar

It likely will have a positive impact on markets and news coverage.

It certainly will not hurt.

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Jonathan's avatar

Record DOW, S &P, and NASDAQ can only benefit the incumbent party

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Jonathan's avatar

I should add, imo the FED should have acted sooner(that's probably an entirely separate debate)

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DM's avatar

Similarly that the fed should have raised rates during the Trump administration to cool an economy that had been on a decade long run. Unfortunately, there are members of the fed that do seem political; they would like to elect Republicans.

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Jonathan's avatar

I feel like this cut can only help marginal Democrats in close congressional races(I think combining this with the continued gas prices falling is 'vibes' booster with perfect timing); as political campaign manager, I always stressed to my candidates about the importance of timing in politics; imo this is great timing

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michaelflutist's avatar

I'm no economist, but it seemed justified for them to have cut rates the last time they met in the summer.

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sacman701's avatar

I am an economist, and in retrospect they probably should have cut a quarter point in July.

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Jonathan's avatar

Agreed

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Kevin H.'s avatar

Didn't the fed say they didn't care about the economy, they wanted to bury inflation

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michaelflutist's avatar

No, the Fed would never say they didn't care about the economy. I think you mean that they had been willing to increase unemployment and bring a recession if that had been necessary to lower inflation.

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Kevin H.'s avatar

So basically they did say that but in a different way.

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sacman701's avatar

Yeah, they're required to weigh the tradeoff between inflation risk and recession risk. Up through this summer they had been more worried about inflation risk. Now they're more worried about recession risk, not because recession risk is especially high but because inflation risk has receded.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Yes but the Fed made it worse. Focusing too much on interest rate increases to stop inflation puts strain on peopleтАЩs wallets.

Senator Warren was right on when she questioned Jerome Powell on why the interest rates had to be increased. Powell was aloof and ignorant about the impact on consumers.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Yes, and she also criticized him for being willing to cause 2 million people to lose their jobs, but that didn't end up happening. The Fed didn't do perfect work, but their soft landing was a hell of a lot better than most of us expected - probably even them.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Certainly the Fed has had a tough job in trying to deal with financial markets and inflation, which has been problematic for the first time in ages.

Given there are still jobs being added per month instead of contraction, this will likely help the economy in terms of both the companies and the labor market.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Yep.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Yes agreed.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Jerome Powell is way behind the curve! The Fed should have started cutting rates in March.

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Jonathan's avatar

I guess what I was asking is not about timing; it's solely about the election; sorry for not being more clear

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ArcticStones's avatar

You were perfectly clear! I was just expressing a tangential frustrated opinion. :)

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Jonathan's avatar

Lmao

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Mark's avatar

Given how every monthly report was showing inflation coming in still far ahead of the target, I don't think there was any cause to begin rate cuts six months ago.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Mildly at best. Naturally, costs are going to go down, which will help consumers and businesses equally.

However, with just 1 1/2 months until the election, there isnтАЩt going to be enough time for the economy to absorb the rate cuts to the degree where we can see enough data. October will be far more impacted than the rest of this month but weтАЩll have to see.

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Jonathan's avatar

Imo you are way overanalyzing this

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Zero Cool's avatar

Not really. Just being conservative with my assessment.

I'm pointing out that when you're taking into account that we're at mid-September and just 6+ weeks until the election, that's not enough to really get a gauge at how everyone is affected. I don't doubt interest rates will make a positive impact on the economy.

Also, it's important to get perspective:

-Consumers have been feeling the pinch in their wallets for some time with the interest rates being higher. It's affected them for years now both financially and psychologically. We have not seen inflation quite this problematic in decades, especially considering the COVID-19 pandemic was the first of its kind since the Spanish Flu. Inflation was also a problem during and after the Spanish Flu.

-We don't know yet if consumers are going to be spending more or saving more. Likely the latter to a certain extent as inflation has made it harder to save. I wouldn't rule this out.

I will say psychologically, with interest rates being cut, it's something everyone will be looking forward to. I just don't think with this short of a time until the election will there be enough data to show the impact on the Fed Rate cut.

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Jonathan's avatar

It's the positive psychological aspect that I am mainly focused on

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Jonathan's avatar

Imo it's only result in the short-term is a positive one for Democrats

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