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Jay's avatar
Sep 12Edited

Pollster called GABO (C rated) has Shah 48-47 in AZ-1.

Insider Advantage in Michigan. 800 LVs 9/12.

49%-48% Trump.

Normington (D rated) in CA-22

Salas 46% Valadao 44%

Cook has moved Montana Senate into Lean Republican territory.

Pew gives Harris only 65% support from Jewish voters to Trump's 34%. Lowest for Democrat since 1988.

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Paleo's avatar

IA, run by Republican Matt Towery, had Whitmer and Dixon tied in 2022. Whitmer won by 11.

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Stephen A Mikalik's avatar

I thought that polster's name looked infamous. That was my second favorite poll of that cycle.

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Jonathan's avatar

I personally know Matt Towery from Georgia politics in the late 80's\early 90's; he was then and is now a Republican hack

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Jonathan's avatar

Let me guess; your first favorite was WA-Sen?

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Stephen A Mikalik's avatar

You bet.

Trafalgar, last weekend of October 2022: Murray 49, Smiley 48

Murray ends up winning by almost 14.5

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michaelflutist's avatar

You mean MT-Sen, right? Surely, they're not eating MT-Prez lean-R! I'm very doubtful about those figures on the Jewish vote. So many of us are going to vote for a Nazi-adjacent antisemite?

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Paleo's avatar

ItтАЩs certainly possible given the polarization that has taken place since the Gaza war. McGovern, Mondale and Carter got less than that.

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Jonathan's avatar

It will definitely be a political science case study for academia after the election

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michaelflutist's avatar

Reagan wasn't or at least didn't appear to be an antisemite, Carter was really helpful to Israel in the Camp David negotiations but took a really hard line against the 1978 invasion of Lebanon and settlements in the West Bank (properly, in my opinion, at least on the settlements, but that's beside the point), and Nixon's antisemitism wasn't known and didn't affect his policies, and though he was dirty, and murderous abroad, he wasn't the kind of extremist Republican we have today nor in the Goldwater wing of the party. I doubt there are enough Jews who will support a fascist in the U.S., but we'll see.

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michaelflutist's avatar

Good God! Rating, not eating!

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Jay's avatar

Yes sorry.

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michaelflutist's avatar

It's OK!

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Darren Monaghan's avatar

Democrats cannot afford to sleep or be 1 bit complacent in ANY swing state, especially the big 3 (Blue Wall): Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Register NEW voters who turn 18 this year or did so after 2020 cycle and turn them out to close the deal, women voters are very critical to permanently ENDING the Trump Show!! ЁЯТЩЁЯЗ║ЁЯЗ▓ЁЯЩПЁЯМК

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Jonathan's avatar

That's why having 5 out of 7 Democratic governors in the 7 swing states is so very important; each Governor controls a political machine that does the nuts and bolts work such as this(and with the Culinary Union in Nevada, it's covered as well); and the Georgia Democratic party has proven its ground bona fides(I'm very confident at this point in the cycle; as long as our side does the necessary blocking and tackling, we should be fine)

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Tim Nguyen's avatar

It's also equally important that Democrats hold 5/7 of the Secretary of State positions in these states. The alternative could easily have been election deniers and bad actors that either try to cause havoc during election day and the counting and management of the process. On top of that there's already the various attempts to sabotage voters via misinformation with confusing state websites, voter purges and excessively complex, expensive or tedious voter ID laws. It's an easily overlooked position, but the Secretary of State should not be underestimated with their power.

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Tom A's avatar

Gov, SoS, local and supreme courts, legislatures, county executives, its all important to the end result.

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axlee's avatar

As SOS, itтАЩs like 6 out of 7. NC SOS has no power or official duty on elections. They are vested in the election board, Members being appointed by the governor, 3 from his party and 2 from the other.

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S Kolb's avatar

does anyone here think for 1 second that Democrats are going to be complacent in ANY important state?

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