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You might find this analysis interesting (everything below the title and link is a quote):
Polling Error in 2016-2020: Look Out for Wisconsin centerforpolitics.org/c…
— Swing state polls show an incredibly close race in our 7 Toss-up presidential states right now.
— Final polling did generally overstate Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 e…
You might find this analysis interesting (everything below the title and link is a quote):
Polling Error in 2016-2020: Look Out for Wisconsin https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/polling-error-in-2016-2020-look-out-for-wisconsin/
— Swing state polls show an incredibly close race in our 7 Toss-up presidential states right now.
— Final polling did generally overstate Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 elections in these states, with Wisconsin standing out. Keep that in mind as polling shows Kamala Harris holding up a little bit better in the Badger State than elsewhere.
— If polls are understating Donald Trump again, he of course is in a great position to win given how competitive he already is in the core swing states. But there are good reasons to believe that he is not being overstated this time.
Our best guess is that because Trump’s polling position is better than 2016 and 2020, it’s likelier that he’s at least not being as underestimated as much as he was in previous elections, if he is being underestimated at all.
The exact ordering of the states doesn’t have to exactly mirror 2016 and 2020 (we went over how these key states voted relative to one another in a recent Crystal Ball story). Maybe Wisconsin is bluer than Pennsylvania (or even Michigan) in 2024; maybe North Carolina votes to the left of Georgia, as it generally did prior to 2020. But don’t just assume those things are going to happen because polls suggest that they could or should.