Right now the GOP has 26 majorities, Dems have 22 and there are two ties (I think MN and NC). The GOP will definitely pick up North Carolina due to gerrymandering.
As you will see, there is no chance to get to 26 majorities themselves. The best we could do is deprive the GOP of having 26 majorities.
Right now the GOP has 26 majorities, Dems have 22 and there are two ties (I think MN and NC). The GOP will definitely pick up North Carolina due to gerrymandering.
As you will see, there is no chance to get to 26 majorities themselves. The best we could do is deprive the GOP of having 26 majorities.
Right now the best shot for Dems is likely winning two seats in AZ. Currently the GOP has a 6-3 lead, but won two of those seats by less than 2% in an R+2 year in 2022.
After that you really are looking at slim pickings. Dems lost one Iowa seat by 0.7% and another by 6.8% - they would need both to convert the 0-4 GOP delegation to 2-2.
We lost MT-1 by 3.2% and winning that back would convert that state to a 1-1 tie.
We lost WI-3 by 3.7% and WI-1 by 8.9% and we would need both to get to a 4-4 tie.
Those are the only states where the pivotal seats were within 10% in 2022.
We also need to hold close seats in AK, MN, VA, MI, PA, OR, NV, and ME where the delegation is tied or Dems have a majority based on some narrow wins in 2022.
So basically the odds that Dems can deprive the GOP of that majority of state delegation majorities is the odds of winning MT-1 and AZ-1 and AZ-6 (which in my opinion Dems should be THROWING money at specifically to cut off this method of Trump using election chaos to cheat his way to a win.)
If that chaos happened but Dems won those seats then the presidency would fall to the VP until the deadlock in the house was resolved - the Senate votes like normal - one senator one vote. So Dems would need to have 50 seats (which means as I think everyone knows, we hold all of our seats except WV, and maybe MT if we can pick up FL or TX instead).
But its not clear that the VP gets to break that tie (does Harris get to vote for Walz?)
If the Senate is also deadlocked then the acting president is picked per the laws governing presidential succession in general - the speaker of the House would become acting president until one of the other two deadlocks is broken. In this scenario that would almost surely be Hakeem Jeffries (since Dems almost surely take back the House if they win AZ-1, AZ-6, and MT-1).
The electors are picked by the local parties mostly. They are party loyalists. The chances that any of them could be bribed (which would also almost surely be a federal crime) is slim. And many states are allowed to simply replace disloyal electors. So I dont think this s a real risk.
The biggest risk is still - Trump gets enough votes to win the electoral college without any real shenanigans other than current state level efforts to prevent Democrats from voting.
Our electoral system is insane, and Ive been kind of obsessed with gaming out the different ways that candidates could legally throw a wrench in the works.
Great writeup (with echoes of VEEP). I'm very curious if this scenario coems to pass, what would happen to members of Congress who are in cross-party districts. If we win MT-01 by 500 votes but Trump still carries the district, does the new Dem Congressman vote her conscience in a profile in courage (that would instantly end her career) or vote with the district?
Right now the GOP has 26 majorities, Dems have 22 and there are two ties (I think MN and NC). The GOP will definitely pick up North Carolina due to gerrymandering.
As you will see, there is no chance to get to 26 majorities themselves. The best we could do is deprive the GOP of having 26 majorities.
Right now the best shot for Dems is likely winning two seats in AZ. Currently the GOP has a 6-3 lead, but won two of those seats by less than 2% in an R+2 year in 2022.
After that you really are looking at slim pickings. Dems lost one Iowa seat by 0.7% and another by 6.8% - they would need both to convert the 0-4 GOP delegation to 2-2.
We lost MT-1 by 3.2% and winning that back would convert that state to a 1-1 tie.
We lost WI-3 by 3.7% and WI-1 by 8.9% and we would need both to get to a 4-4 tie.
Those are the only states where the pivotal seats were within 10% in 2022.
We also need to hold close seats in AK, MN, VA, MI, PA, OR, NV, and ME where the delegation is tied or Dems have a majority based on some narrow wins in 2022.
So basically the odds that Dems can deprive the GOP of that majority of state delegation majorities is the odds of winning MT-1 and AZ-1 and AZ-6 (which in my opinion Dems should be THROWING money at specifically to cut off this method of Trump using election chaos to cheat his way to a win.)
If that chaos happened but Dems won those seats then the presidency would fall to the VP until the deadlock in the house was resolved - the Senate votes like normal - one senator one vote. So Dems would need to have 50 seats (which means as I think everyone knows, we hold all of our seats except WV, and maybe MT if we can pick up FL or TX instead).
But its not clear that the VP gets to break that tie (does Harris get to vote for Walz?)
If the Senate is also deadlocked then the acting president is picked per the laws governing presidential succession in general - the speaker of the House would become acting president until one of the other two deadlocks is broken. In this scenario that would almost surely be Hakeem Jeffries (since Dems almost surely take back the House if they win AZ-1, AZ-6, and MT-1).
The electors are picked by the local parties mostly. They are party loyalists. The chances that any of them could be bribed (which would also almost surely be a federal crime) is slim. And many states are allowed to simply replace disloyal electors. So I dont think this s a real risk.
The biggest risk is still - Trump gets enough votes to win the electoral college without any real shenanigans other than current state level efforts to prevent Democrats from voting.
Tom, thank you for your thorough and informative reply!
Our electoral system is insane, and Ive been kind of obsessed with gaming out the different ways that candidates could legally throw a wrench in the works.
Great writeup (with echoes of VEEP). I'm very curious if this scenario coems to pass, what would happen to members of Congress who are in cross-party districts. If we win MT-01 by 500 votes but Trump still carries the district, does the new Dem Congressman vote her conscience in a profile in courage (that would instantly end her career) or vote with the district?