Here are my updated crude 31- and 14-day polling averages. I exclude GOP troll polls (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc), any polls released by partisan organizations, and some with really sketchy methods such as ActiVote. For the 14-day state averages, the number of polls is in parentheses.
Here are my updated crude 31- and 14-day polling averages. I exclude GOP troll polls (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc), any polls released by partisan organizations, and some with really sketchy methods such as ActiVote. For the 14-day state averages, the number of polls is in parentheses.
AZ: 31-day T+1.3, 14-day T+1.2 (4)
GA: 31-day T+0.5, 14-day T+1.6 (5)
MI: 31-day H+1.5, 14-day H+2.4 (5)
NV: 31-day H+1.4, 14-day H+0.6 (3)
NC: 31-day T+0.1, 14-day H+0.9 (6)
PA: 31-day H+0.9, 14-day H+1.0 (4)
WI: 31-day H+3.6, 14-day H+2.5 (6)
US: 31-day H+3.1, 14-day H+2.0
This suggests that Harris remains slightly ahead. The most recent national polls look a little worse for Harris, but that's partly a function of which pollsters have released polls in the last 2 weeks. The state polls don't show the same slippage. In any case, over the next couple weeks we'll see whether the debate moves the poll numbers. The first debate moved them away from Biden, although some of the late movement in that case may have been more a function of the coverage of following events and pressure on Biden to drop out.
Do you have Florida as well? Something seems to be happening in Florida!
There’s a lot of anger at DeSantis, even amongst his own, after he wanted to "develop" state parks. Abortion and Marijuana are on the ballot, which should spike turnout of Democrats and democracy-favoring Independents. And Debbie Murcasel-Powell seems to be within reach of taking down Rick Scott...
I haven't been tracking Florida because if it's flipping the presidential election almost certainly isn't in doubt, but just eyeballing it Trump is up 4.2 over the last 31 days and 3.7 over the last 14. Florida was also one of the few states where polling was too favorable to Dems in 2022. In pretty much all the swing states, it was too favorable to the GOP.
Here are my updated crude 31- and 14-day polling averages. I exclude GOP troll polls (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc), any polls released by partisan organizations, and some with really sketchy methods such as ActiVote. For the 14-day state averages, the number of polls is in parentheses.
AZ: 31-day T+1.3, 14-day T+1.2 (4)
GA: 31-day T+0.5, 14-day T+1.6 (5)
MI: 31-day H+1.5, 14-day H+2.4 (5)
NV: 31-day H+1.4, 14-day H+0.6 (3)
NC: 31-day T+0.1, 14-day H+0.9 (6)
PA: 31-day H+0.9, 14-day H+1.0 (4)
WI: 31-day H+3.6, 14-day H+2.5 (6)
US: 31-day H+3.1, 14-day H+2.0
This suggests that Harris remains slightly ahead. The most recent national polls look a little worse for Harris, but that's partly a function of which pollsters have released polls in the last 2 weeks. The state polls don't show the same slippage. In any case, over the next couple weeks we'll see whether the debate moves the poll numbers. The first debate moved them away from Biden, although some of the late movement in that case may have been more a function of the coverage of following events and pressure on Biden to drop out.
Do you have Florida as well? Something seems to be happening in Florida!
There’s a lot of anger at DeSantis, even amongst his own, after he wanted to "develop" state parks. Abortion and Marijuana are on the ballot, which should spike turnout of Democrats and democracy-favoring Independents. And Debbie Murcasel-Powell seems to be within reach of taking down Rick Scott...
I haven't been tracking Florida because if it's flipping the presidential election almost certainly isn't in doubt, but just eyeballing it Trump is up 4.2 over the last 31 days and 3.7 over the last 14. Florida was also one of the few states where polling was too favorable to Dems in 2022. In pretty much all the swing states, it was too favorable to the GOP.
Thank you.