Not the one you asked but I'm in NY 17 and... I don't know. I think I saw Maloney's loss coming in 22 but we had headwinds against us in the state that are not here right now. Jones isn't the best candidate but I'd rate it as a very decent shot of flipping, by a narrow margin.
Why on earth would Trump go to NY-04? I could understand it if he were holding 3-5 rallies a day like he did in 2016, but he doesn't do that anymore (probably because he doesn't have the self-control to keep his speeches remotely short). It's a waste of his time.
Sure, but why not hop over to eastern Pennsylvania instead? Like Allentown? That would get you the Philly and/or Scranton media markets, as opposed to the NYC media market which contains exactly one PA county (Pike, which cast 32K votes in 2020 and was 59-40 Trump).
Just a guess, but Trump does have a lot of property in New York. Plus, I'm willing to bet he has quite a few wealthy donors and allies there too. So perhaps the rally is more for his donors or it's more convenient because he can meet up with his wealthy donors that live nearby before and after the rally.
Yeah, I don't think there's any deeper analysis required here. He's a dummy who goes where he'll get applause and be worshipped. I'm not sure the electoral implications even occur to him and he clearly doesn't listen to his advisors (who I don't think are necessarily rocket scientists either).
I'm seeing the same result from NY-22 dated July 7-15. Either they repolled two weeks ago and got the same result, put the wrong dates on somehow, or the survey data is two months old.
Though if the poll is really that old, it's encouraging in a sense in that early to mid-July (after the Trump/Biden debate and before the Biden to Harris switch) is generally regarded as the Democratic nadir for 2024, when, we are told, polls showed the bottom dropping out for Dems in competitive races which helped push Biden to step aside. If a Democrat was leading by seven points then they're almost certainly leading now.
Not sure why Trump is rallying in NY but maybe he guesses a weak result for Dems in another election cycle will make him look good? Harris has been posting weak numbers in safe Democratic states. She won't loose Maryland, California, or New York but it won't look good if she underperformed Biden in safe territory.
Two house races in NY got polled by GQR, a Democratic pollster
NY04. August 30 400 LV
Gillen(D) 50%
DEsposito (R incumbent) 47%
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1834236290474066414
For some reason, Trump is holding a rally here next week on the 18th.
NY 22 Aug 30 2024 400 LV
Mannion (D) 50%
Williams (R incumbent). 43%
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1834226480118648950
Two best shots in New York.
What about these two Congressional races in New York:
тАУ Mondaire Jones (NY-17)
тАУ Josh Riley (NY-19)
I think Josh Riley will take down Marcus Molinaro. But can Mondaire Jones beat Mike Lawler? Thoughts?
Not the one you asked but I'm in NY 17 and... I don't know. I think I saw Maloney's loss coming in 22 but we had headwinds against us in the state that are not here right now. Jones isn't the best candidate but I'd rate it as a very decent shot of flipping, by a narrow margin.
Why on earth would Trump go to NY-04? I could understand it if he were holding 3-5 rallies a day like he did in 2016, but he doesn't do that anymore (probably because he doesn't have the self-control to keep his speeches remotely short). It's a waste of his time.
Rally after fundraisers in NYC/Hamptons is the most logical reason.
Sure, but why not hop over to eastern Pennsylvania instead? Like Allentown? That would get you the Philly and/or Scranton media markets, as opposed to the NYC media market which contains exactly one PA county (Pike, which cast 32K votes in 2020 and was 59-40 Trump).
Just a guess, but Trump does have a lot of property in New York. Plus, I'm willing to bet he has quite a few wealthy donors and allies there too. So perhaps the rally is more for his donors or it's more convenient because he can meet up with his wealthy donors that live nearby before and after the rally.
Trump isn't exactly a brilliant campaign strategist.
Yeah, I don't think there's any deeper analysis required here. He's a dummy who goes where he'll get applause and be worshipped. I'm not sure the electoral implications even occur to him and he clearly doesn't listen to his advisors (who I don't think are necessarily rocket scientists either).
I'm seeing the same result from NY-22 dated July 7-15. Either they repolled two weeks ago and got the same result, put the wrong dates on somehow, or the survey data is two months old.
https://x.com/jamesd0wns/status/1834218771910643882
Though if the poll is really that old, it's encouraging in a sense in that early to mid-July (after the Trump/Biden debate and before the Biden to Harris switch) is generally regarded as the Democratic nadir for 2024, when, we are told, polls showed the bottom dropping out for Dems in competitive races which helped push Biden to step aside. If a Democrat was leading by seven points then they're almost certainly leading now.
Not sure why Trump is rallying in NY but maybe he guesses a weak result for Dems in another election cycle will make him look good? Harris has been posting weak numbers in safe Democratic states. She won't loose Maryland, California, or New York but it won't look good if she underperformed Biden in safe territory.
It doesn't matter how it will "look." He's the one that cares about superficialities like that.
you absolutely nailed it; just replay how triggered he was over Harris making fun of his 'crowd sizes' and 'bored' rally participants