Very glad that White had a narrow win in the Ga State Senate Special Election. Good to keep the seat, even if we get it back in November, with the special sessions Kemp wants to call.
As a constituent in MD-06 I am sickened by Delaney’s weak record—especially her ICE enablement, which she is totally 100% lying about. But to top that off, Delaney is completely lying about Mr Trone’s record. I am not a huge fan of either billionaire and want a regular person to finally represent us in Congress! But Trone is a far more reliable liberal with a much more progressive record than Delaney….and he has a good heart despite his enormous ego. Additionally, after the IRS incorrectly denied my Clean Vehicle Credit of $7500 for a new car I bought in Sept 2025, I asked Delaney’s office for help. Submitted a case and all the necessary supporting documents. Crickets. Got one email saying “we’ve referred you to a taxpayer advocate.” Thanks a fucking lot. Useless!!
The choice in MD-06 is clear this year.
I really wish Joe Vogel would run again (he should’ve won the primary in 2024!).
GREAT night for progressives in DC: White won his primary for delegate outright, while JLG, Raj, and Silverman are heavily favored to win their primaries for mayor, Ward 1 councilor, and at-large councilor respectively.
Still disappointed that Oklahomans voted against the minimum wage initiative last night. You let Republicans fool you into voting against a wage raise.
It didn't help that the MAGA governor purposely kept it off the Nov 2024 ballot (where it would've been approved) and instead put it on the 2026 primary ballot, rightfully thinking less people would vote for it.
FL seems like a state where we'd benefit a lot from differential turnout. I'm skeptical we can benefit enough to actually win either of these races or another big statewide like the AG race, but maybe one of them will be interesting in October.
The Florida AG seat has had the Democratic candidate leading longer than the governor or Senate races. I think the AG seat could flip even if the other two don’t.
Their polls tend to be a bit on the optimistic side for Democrats. Not huge and definitely not dishonest, just their modeling tend to assume near best case scenarios for the Democrat.
FL has had way less of a shift away from Trump than other places e.g. Texas. I think the Republican gains in South Florida are going to stick around for a bit, at least until Dems have a popular President.
I don't think Florida is absolutely unwinnable, but I think if we're winning statewide in Florida this fall it tells us that we're doing really, really well everywhere else. The state requires a huge wave for us to get over the finish line.
What I don't get is that there doesn't appear to be all that much difference between Conley and Davidson. There must be some other factors at play idk.
I did some research and it seems like Tavern Research most polls on behalf of Democrats. So it's partisan in that sense. But in terms of whether this was conducted by-or-for one candidate, I cannot find any concrete link. The way it's being presented gives the impression that it is an independent poll. But I can't say with certainty.
OK, I'm going to be "that guy" because this is one of my pet peeves...
"With almost all of the vote counted from the June 2 nonpartisan primary, Democratic incumbent Katrina Foley holds a tiny 47.0 to 46.8 majority over Republican Assemblywoman Diane Dixon in the 5th District. "
Internal but good numbers for all three races. Great to see Brown leading in more than one recent poll and Acton also ahead. And, according to the polling memo, after giving voters balanced profile statements, Kluewitz leads 43%-39%.
Would fit with the priors of Acton and Brown being more likely to win than the downballot row offices. Hopefully SOS and AG get some attention by Dem groups.
Overseas, the Hungarian parliament approved a constitutional amendment that allows prime ministers to serve a maximum of eight years (aka two terms), effectively barring Viktor Orban from running or holding the office again.
If Dems win full control of the legislature and KLB wins the governorship, then they should undo the current gerrymander regardless and at least pass a fair 7-7 map with some swing districts.
OK-1: The Rev. Jackson Lahmeyer, who is Trump-endorsed, is out. This comes after a sexting scandal. State Rep. Mark Tedford is now the Republican nominee, as he and Lahmeyer advanced to a runoff.
The Argument Magazine has released their 2026 midterms model for the House and Senate races. They say Democrats have a 44% chance of flipping the Senate but have an 86% chance of flipping the House.
Only Senate seats they have as Toss-Up or Lean D or R are Alaska, Ohio, Texas and Maine. Georgia is rated as Safe D, while NC is Likely D (a flip). FL, IA and NE are Likely R.
See, I think they're being conservative with the House map. The Senate map is fine, though there's a chance I'd add Alaska into the mix. But I don't think Michigan will be over 5 points, even with someone other than El-Sayed.
I think they are being too conservative on both. NE and IA are lean R at most, and the house races seem a bit bearish on some of them. But the guys behind this model have always been more conservative on dems' chances, they just are not as bad as people like Cook
IA should be more Tilt GOP or Lean GOP. No way it’s Likely Republican if Joni Ernst won re-election by a smaller amount in 2020 and if recent polls are showing a closer race between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek.
Between feenstra and now jones plus all of the candidates who have their gods endorsement yet are headed to runoffs, which is plenty, maybe cadet bonespurs is not as powerful as rethuglicans think.
Not to mention all the candidates that have their gods endorsement then drop out.
Personally I can not wait until november when dems win so many seats that have a rethuglican opponent that has cadet bonespurs endorsement.
If Trump is still hanging in there for 2028, Senator Ted Budd is a GONER. He got Bone Spurs' endorsement for 2022 and lucked out thanks to the midterm effect and bad state Democratic party leadership.
Getting a Trump endorsement for 2028 will be the kiss of death for his Senate re-election bid.
Oh please. I hope Trump endorses Budd for re-election. That would make it easier for Democrats and Roy Cooper (should he get elected as Senator) to campaign.
Budd is going to be toast in a presidential year with charisma void JDV on the ballot. Esp if the challenger is a popular statewide elected Democrat like Jeff Jackson.
New Michigan poll has El-Sayed up 42-33 over Stevens with McMorrow in a distant third at 6%. El-Sayed's lead seems to be built by him leading among 18-44 by 86-3-0 which I'm not sure I buy.
Either way younger voters and their turnout is probably going to make or break his campaign. The timing of the primary being August 4th when colleges are out of session and many young people probably out enjoying their summer is going to be a big hurdle for El-Sayed. Stevens base being mostly older voters and African Americans means she can't be counted out.
That 18-44 number isn't the only big oddity. It seems the pollster accidentally sent out a link that would allow any respondent to answer an unlimited number of times. Probably should just be trashed.
Amen!
Jamelle Bouie has a great video on this!
https://youtu.be/BxzZFIzwhms?si=Xh9dh8iCmDCtHkEC
Big same
Agreed! This is so important to remember. We just need to count all the votes. Quick results are not some integral part of democracy.
Very glad that White had a narrow win in the Ga State Senate Special Election. Good to keep the seat, even if we get it back in November, with the special sessions Kemp wants to call.
Esp, if some rando R who is very likely to lose in the fall got elected. Could do whatever in special sessions a normie politician won’t ever do.
i also think it's a good datapoint, in that given the not-so-great turnout numbers, we likely pulled some republican cross over voters here
As a constituent in MD-06 I am sickened by Delaney’s weak record—especially her ICE enablement, which she is totally 100% lying about. But to top that off, Delaney is completely lying about Mr Trone’s record. I am not a huge fan of either billionaire and want a regular person to finally represent us in Congress! But Trone is a far more reliable liberal with a much more progressive record than Delaney….and he has a good heart despite his enormous ego. Additionally, after the IRS incorrectly denied my Clean Vehicle Credit of $7500 for a new car I bought in Sept 2025, I asked Delaney’s office for help. Submitted a case and all the necessary supporting documents. Crickets. Got one email saying “we’ve referred you to a taxpayer advocate.” Thanks a fucking lot. Useless!!
The choice in MD-06 is clear this year.
I really wish Joe Vogel would run again (he should’ve won the primary in 2024!).
Why not Joe? He would’ve been great.
Pam Evette might be looking next door this morning and realizing that Trump endorsement isn’t gonna save her ass.
GREAT night for progressives in DC: White won his primary for delegate outright, while JLG, Raj, and Silverman are heavily favored to win their primaries for mayor, Ward 1 councilor, and at-large councilor respectively.
Less likely, but Oye Owolewa, who is WFP-endorsed, currently also leads his at-large council seat.
Still disappointed that Oklahomans voted against the minimum wage initiative last night. You let Republicans fool you into voting against a wage raise.
I don’t think they are being fooled. At what point do we just accept that these are the policies that they want? I’m tired of coddling them.
It didn't help that the MAGA governor purposely kept it off the Nov 2024 ballot (where it would've been approved) and instead put it on the 2026 primary ballot, rightfully thinking less people would vote for it.
Change Research polling for FL races popped up.
FL-GOV: Jolly leads Donalds 47-42 -- with likely voters it's 49-42
FL-SEN: Moody leads Vindman 46-43, but with likely voters it's 46-46
https://changeresearch.com/deep-dive-into-florida/
FL seems like a state where we'd benefit a lot from differential turnout. I'm skeptical we can benefit enough to actually win either of these races or another big statewide like the AG race, but maybe one of them will be interesting in October.
The Florida AG seat has had the Democratic candidate leading longer than the governor or Senate races. I think the AG seat could flip even if the other two don’t.
I kind of don't understand why the state parties in Texas and Florida haven't been able to find a Latino veteran or prosecutor to run statewide.
A civil rights lawyer isn't a prosecutor, and Lupe Valdez didn't really fundraise.
If JJR wins the AG seat but Vindman loses, hopefully he is open to the possibility of running for the full term in 2028.
Encouraging numbers! I'd love to believe this, so what's Change Research's record?
Their polls tend to be a bit on the optimistic side for Democrats. Not huge and definitely not dishonest, just their modeling tend to assume near best case scenarios for the Democrat.
Keep in mind that poll is post-bio of the candidates.
If so, it should be disregarded.
I’m not doing the Charlie and the football thing with Florida ever again.
I've been burnt on FL too. But now FL voters are getting the unvarnished Trump policies they voted for -- and they don't like it.
If FL Dems win one or more statewide races this year, it'll be because of the Latino shift away from the GOP and FDJT not on the ballot anymore.
FL has had way less of a shift away from Trump than other places e.g. Texas. I think the Republican gains in South Florida are going to stick around for a bit, at least until Dems have a popular President.
I don't think Florida is absolutely unwinnable, but I think if we're winning statewide in Florida this fall it tells us that we're doing really, really well everywhere else. The state requires a huge wave for us to get over the finish line.
If we actually got our numbers back up to 46% or 47%, I'd consider that a win
NY17 Democratic Primary Poll via Tavern Research:
https://x.com/tavernresearch/status/2066975347686744327?s=20
Cait Conley - 34%
Beth Davidson - 23%
Effie Phillips-Staley - 13%
Mike Sacks - 1%
John Cappello - 1%
What I don't get is that there doesn't appear to be all that much difference between Conley and Davidson. There must be some other factors at play idk.
Nonpartisan, or internal poll?
I did some research and it seems like Tavern Research most polls on behalf of Democrats. So it's partisan in that sense. But in terms of whether this was conducted by-or-for one candidate, I cannot find any concrete link. The way it's being presented gives the impression that it is an independent poll. But I can't say with certainty.
Yeah that’s what I was asking, was this a Conley or Davidson or whoever internal. Seems it isn’t, so I trust it more.
OK, I'm going to be "that guy" because this is one of my pet peeves...
"With almost all of the vote counted from the June 2 nonpartisan primary, Democratic incumbent Katrina Foley holds a tiny 47.0 to 46.8 majority over Republican Assemblywoman Diane Dixon in the 5th District. "
I think you mean plurality, not majority! :D
You're right. I've fixed.
OH: Internal poll by Democratic candidate for AG:
Sen: Brown 46%; Husted 42%
Gov: Acton 47%; Ramaswamy 44%
AG: Kluewitz(D) 34%; Faber(R) 34%
(Poll by Tulchin Research of 600 LVs)
https://x.com/AndrewJTobias/status/2067239157999567347/photo/1
Internal but good numbers for all three races. Great to see Brown leading in more than one recent poll and Acton also ahead. And, according to the polling memo, after giving voters balanced profile statements, Kluewitz leads 43%-39%.
I wouldn’t think it’s too heavy lifting for IA Democrats to win. After all, Fred Hubbell got close to winning the gubernatorial election back in 2018.
Well, Hinson is pro-BBB and not shying away from her support of it. No way she can spin it, not to mention professing her loyalty to Trump.
Would fit with the priors of Acton and Brown being more likely to win than the downballot row offices. Hopefully SOS and AG get some attention by Dem groups.
Winning the SOS and AG races would definitely help future ballot initiatives in Ohio.
And would give us strong candidates for future Gov and Sen races.
Yeah if Dems win SOS they need to put independent redistricting on the ballot again without the misleading language that LaRose was able to write.
I’m sensing OH for the Senate, Governor, AG, etc. could go for Democrats in November with a possible blue wave election like back in 2006.
And it just so happens Sherrod Brown first ran for the Senate back in 2006 and unseated Mike DeWine when he was still Senator.
And he won the SoS position in 1982, a good year for Ohio Democrats
Overseas, the Hungarian parliament approved a constitutional amendment that allows prime ministers to serve a maximum of eight years (aka two terms), effectively barring Viktor Orban from running or holding the office again.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hungarian-parliament-rules-out-orban-return-with-eight-year-limit-for-prime-ministers/ar-AA25HPQF?ocid=BingNewsVerp
Good. Doesn’t preclude another Fidesz hack from coming along but it seems that party is pretty damn personalist at this point
No Georgia redistricting it seems.
https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/06/georgia-house-leaders-nix-redistricting-plans-over-fears-of-energizing-democrats/
I'm surprised, but I imagine this could still happen in the lame duck if they have a terrible midterm.
Question: if KLB wins and R's try to redistrict in the lame duck session, what power would KLB have to undo it?
If Georgia Ds manage to eke out a trifecta, they can pass new maps undoing the lame duck rigging for KLB to sign.
If it’s just her and not a Dem trifecta? Nothing.
If Dems win full control of the legislature and KLB wins the governorship, then they should undo the current gerrymander regardless and at least pass a fair 7-7 map with some swing districts.
Is there a quorum threshold in GA? Perhaps Dems could refuse to show up to the legislature until she’s shown in.
https://www.newson6.com/tulsa-oklahoma-news/jackson-lahmeyer-drops-out-of-oklahomas-1st-congressional-district-race
OK-1: The Rev. Jackson Lahmeyer, who is Trump-endorsed, is out. This comes after a sexting scandal. State Rep. Mark Tedford is now the Republican nominee, as he and Lahmeyer advanced to a runoff.
Wow
The Argument Magazine has released their 2026 midterms model for the House and Senate races. They say Democrats have a 44% chance of flipping the Senate but have an 86% chance of flipping the House.
Only Senate seats they have as Toss-Up or Lean D or R are Alaska, Ohio, Texas and Maine. Georgia is rated as Safe D, while NC is Likely D (a flip). FL, IA and NE are Likely R.
https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/split-ticket-2026-midterms-model
I think they're being a bit too conservative with the Senate map.
See, I think they're being conservative with the House map. The Senate map is fine, though there's a chance I'd add Alaska into the mix. But I don't think Michigan will be over 5 points, even with someone other than El-Sayed.
I think they're right on the money with the House predictions, ie the two vulnerable VA House reps like Witless and Kiggans.
I think they are being too conservative on both. NE and IA are lean R at most, and the house races seem a bit bearish on some of them. But the guys behind this model have always been more conservative on dems' chances, they just are not as bad as people like Cook
IA should be more Tilt GOP or Lean GOP. No way it’s Likely Republican if Joni Ernst won re-election by a smaller amount in 2020 and if recent polls are showing a closer race between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek.
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019e-a539-d916-a39f-ef7da0f30000
Way too early prediction: Turek wins IA Senate!!
Yeah, I think Lakshya will be wrong on many races this year.
Which ones? He whiffed on Mamdani last year.
The ones where Rs are said to be favored. I think he will get many of those races wrong in FL and TX especially.
Between feenstra and now jones plus all of the candidates who have their gods endorsement yet are headed to runoffs, which is plenty, maybe cadet bonespurs is not as powerful as rethuglicans think.
Not to mention all the candidates that have their gods endorsement then drop out.
Personally I can not wait until november when dems win so many seats that have a rethuglican opponent that has cadet bonespurs endorsement.
If Trump is still hanging in there for 2028, Senator Ted Budd is a GONER. He got Bone Spurs' endorsement for 2022 and lucked out thanks to the midterm effect and bad state Democratic party leadership.
Getting a Trump endorsement for 2028 will be the kiss of death for his Senate re-election bid.
Oh please. I hope Trump endorses Budd for re-election. That would make it easier for Democrats and Roy Cooper (should he get elected as Senator) to campaign.
Oh, he will. Budd is a stooge for him, as are the vast majority of Republicans.
Budd is going to be toast in a presidential year with charisma void JDV on the ballot. Esp if the challenger is a popular statewide elected Democrat like Jeff Jackson.
I don't assume that Vance will be on the general election ballot in 2028.
He might be but might not. Not that Little Marco is super charismatic, lol...
I’m rooting for JDV just so he can experience the same pain our country, Gore and Madame VP did.
I'm betting Vance opts out! He seems totally dis-interested and incompetent!
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2067355633121100217
New Michigan poll has El-Sayed up 42-33 over Stevens with McMorrow in a distant third at 6%. El-Sayed's lead seems to be built by him leading among 18-44 by 86-3-0 which I'm not sure I buy.
Either way younger voters and their turnout is probably going to make or break his campaign. The timing of the primary being August 4th when colleges are out of session and many young people probably out enjoying their summer is going to be a big hurdle for El-Sayed. Stevens base being mostly older voters and African Americans means she can't be counted out.
That 18-44 number isn't the only big oddity. It seems the pollster accidentally sent out a link that would allow any respondent to answer an unlimited number of times. Probably should just be trashed.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/17/mcmorrow-michigan-senate-poll-00965924
I can see why the McMorrow campaign is furious. This will probably kill her fundraising and fuel calls for her to drop out.
That is not a proper scientific poll if that is the case.
Should be worth mentioning El-Sayed is a union member and definitely aiming to get enough support from union voters.
Mitchell is garbage.