Morning Digest: What the heck is the GOP up to in this Nebraska House race?

Do Republicans think Democrat John Cavanaugh is their weakest opponent or their strongest?

Nebraska state Sen. John Cavanaugh (D), at right (John Cavanaugh Facebook)

Leading Off

NE-02

A deep-pocketed Republican group is ostensibly trying to thwart state Sen. John Cavanaugh’s chances of winning the Democratic primary in Nebraska’s open 2nd Congressional District—a goal that seemingly runs counter to advice from an anonymous GOP strategy memo that circulated earlier this year.

A new digital ad from the American Action Network, which has close ties to House GOP leaders, overtly seeks to link Cavanaugh to the most toxic name in Democratic politics.

“Democrat John Cavanaugh is working to enact Trump’s policy,” a narrator says. “Cavanaugh’s bill would ‘exactly mirror’ the law from Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ because John Cavanaugh is quote ‘in agreement with President Trump.’ So thank John Cavanaugh for sponsoring Trump’s MAGA agenda.”

The quotations come from an article published by Nebraska Public Media earlier this year, which explained that Cavanaugh had sponsored a bill to “exempt overtime pay and tips from state income taxes,” which would align the state with federal tax law.

“It’s rare that you’ll find me in agreement with President Trump, but I think excluding overtime and tips from income tax is a good idea that actually supports working people,” he told the Senate at the time.

Punchbowl’s Ally Mutnick, who first flagged the ad, described it as a “sign Rs view Cavanaugh as stronger D/don’t want him as nominee.”

But that’s not what Republicans were saying just a couple of months ago, according to a January article from the conservative Washington Examiner. That story surfaced a “list” purportedly created by unnamed GOP strategists highlighting Democratic candidates in competitive House races whom Republicans think would be easier to beat in November.

That roster featured half a dozen names, including progressives like Colorado state Rep. Manny Rutinel, who’s running for his state’s swingy 8th District.

Republicans have expressed their desire to face Rutinel in other venues, and his chief rival in the primary, former state Rep. Shannon Bird, has been endorsed by centrist Democratic groups such as WelcomePAC, which have explicitly warned that they believe candidates like Rutinel could cost the party winnable races.

But also on the list is Cavanaugh, purportedly because he “has a rich history of far-left votes in the Nebraska Unicameral Legislature” and sports an endorsement from the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

American Action Network’s advertising, though, suggests it takes the exact opposite view. Linking Cavanaugh to Trump could only hurt him with Democratic voters, who will be choosing their nominee on May 12, though so far, AAN’s spending appears to be modest. (Data from Facebook indicates that the group has spent about $10,000 on the platform so far.)

Cavanaugh is one of six Democrats hoping to replace Rep. Don Bacon, a Republican who is not seeking a sixth term representing the swingy 2nd District in the Omaha area.

His main intraparty opponents are former Veterans Department official Kishla Askins, political strategist Denise Powell, and Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades. Two other contenders have attracted little attention.

The winner will take on Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding, who has no opposition in the Republican primary.

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The Downballot Podcast

10 of the hottest races for governor

There are 36 races for governor in 2026, and many are shaping up to be highly competitive. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard run through 10 of the most interesting races for governor across the country. They explain how the blue-leaning environment could help Democrats compete in red states and how ranked-choice voting systems could affect races in both Alaska and Maine.

The Davids also preview the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, a contest in which liberal candidate Chris Taylor looks like the decided favorite over her conservative rival, Maria Lazar. They discuss Democrats’ current structural advantage in races like these during the Trump era and consider the possibility of a dominant 6-1 progressive majority in 2027.

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript!

1Q Fundraising

The first fundraising quarter of the year, covering the period from Jan. 1 through March 31, has come to an end, meaning federal candidates must file campaign finance reports with the FEC by April 15. But as per usual, campaigns with strong hauls are releasing numbers early, which we’ve gathered below. (Note that candidates for state and local office often file disclosures on different timetables.)

• FL-Sen: Alex Vindman (D): $8.2 million raised (in two months), $6.2 million cash on hand

• FL-Gov: Byron Donalds (R): $22.2 million raised

• IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D): $2 million raised

• IA-02: Joe Mitchell (R): $600,000 raised

• IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc): $835,000 raised

• MA-06:

  • Dan Koh (D): $1.5 million raised, $3 million cash on hand

  • John Beccia (D): $400,000 raised, additional $1.2 million self-funded, $2 million cash on hand

  • Tram Nguyen (D): $177,000 raised

  • Bethany Andres-Beck (D): $110,000 raised

• MD-05: Adrian Boafo (D): $460,000 raised

• MI-07: Matt Maasdam (D): $700,000 raised

• MT-01: Ryan Busse (D): $525,000 raised

• NJ-07: Rebecca Bennett (D): $700,000 raised, $1.4 million cash on hand

• NJ-12:

  • Adam Hamawy (D): $550,000 raised

  • Sue Altman (D): $400,000 raised (in two months)

• NY-10: Dan Goldman (D-inc): $2.2 million raised, $1.5 million cash on hand

• NY-17: Cait Conley (D): $710,000 raised

• SC-01: Nancy Lacore (D): $1 million raised

• VA-07: Dan Helmer (D): $640,000 raised (in five weeks)

Senate

SD-Sen

Any lingering chatter about former Gov. Kristi Noem challenging Sen. Mike Rounds in the June 2 Republican primary ended Tuesday when candidate filing closed in South Dakota and Noem did not put her name forward.

Rounds, who faces no serious intraparty opposition, should have little trouble securing a third term in this conservative state.

House

MO-06

Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett said this week that he would run to replace longtime Rep. Sam Graves, a fellow Republican who announced his retirement on Friday ahead of the March 31 filing deadline. Graves, though, has someone else in mind as his preferred successor.

“My friend, Chris Stigall, is the best suited to represent North Missouri in Congress,” Graves wrote in a social media post on Tuesday. “I’m proud to support him and hope you will join me.”

Willett, however, is anything but supportive of Stigall, a conservative radio host who launched his campaign for the safely red 6th Congressional District mere hours after Graves revealed that he was ending his campaign for a 14th term.

“For 26 years Congressman Sam Graves has represented North Missouri. He and his anti-Trump (Jeff Roe) political consultant are trying to hand pick the next person to come after him for the next 26 years,” Willett said in a statement. “As conservatives, we don’t believe in rigging elections - he tried to with his last minute retirement announcement but I am giving the voters a choice.”

But while Willett directed most of his ire at Graves, he’s hoping that one particular Republican will take notice of his mention of Roe ahead of the Aug. 4 primary.

Roe has long been one of the most prominent GOP strategists in the nation, but his decision to back Ron DeSantis’ failed effort to wrest the 2024 presidential nomination from Trump made him an outcast in MAGA circles.

Though Trump has reconciled with some former enemies who have acknowledged his dominance, the Missouri Independent’s Jason Hancock wrote last month that Roe remains “one of the few Republican operatives whose name can still trigger an allergic reaction in Trumpworld.”

Hancock predicted that a GOP primary to replace Graves could turn into a “proxy fight” between Trump and Roe—a skirmish that Willett is now doing his best to instigate.

Stigall, Willett, and three less-prominent Republicans filed to run ahead of Tuesday’s original deadline, but the field may not be quite set.

Missouri automatically reopens filing in any races in which a candidate who had filed to run formally withdraws within two business days of the filing deadline, and Graves’ departure fell within that window. The new deadline will fall on April 10.

And while there’s no question that the 6th District will remain hard red turf, no one’s still quite sure which set of voters will be picking Graves’ successor. Battles in the courtroom and, likely, at the ballot box still loom over whether the new map or the old one will come into effect.

Poll Pile

• PA-Gov: Susquehanna Polling & Research:

  • Josh Shapiro (D-inc): 58, Stacy Garrity (R): 36 (Sept.: 54-36 Shapiro).

  • Susquehanna is a Republican firm.

• FL-28: MDW Communications for EDGE Communications:

  • Carlos Gimenez (R-inc): 46, Hector Mujica (D): 40.

  • The poll was in the field from March 2-7. Mujica, who is being advised by EDGE, is currently running for the U.S. Senate and had not announced whether he would switch races when this poll was released.