Unfortunately that wouldn’t surprise me with Maine. Collins’ reelection chances have nothing to do with things like our strength on the generic ballot.
Maybe the person/people who pushed successfully for Platner? Of course, voters didn't have to go along until he became completely untenable.
Regardless of the final result, Platner should be a cautionary tale against the "Looky! Common man! Populist! Says what he thinks! Will bring blue collar voters back to Democrats!" mentality.
Comparing the last NYT poll of Platner to this one, Platner was polling better in almost every category - men, young people, millennials, white non-college, and those who didn't vote in 2024. Jackson's only standout is doing better with voters over 65.
Once more NYT leans more conservative among the nonpartisan pollsters even in a blue wave year.
That aside, it is notable that neither Jackson nor Collins have broken over 50% in their polls, save 1 from an obscure pollster a few weeks ago for Jackson. While I won't say that benefits Jackson yet since he's also below 50%, it doesn't help Collins either. Incumbent or not, this is a midterm election and a referendum on a historically unpopular president. And unlike 2020, this isn't a presidential election, so Collins won't have the benefit of low propensity voters to boost her numbers and bypass poll data. If anything, angry and new voters may swing stronger the other way, but I guess we will see, especially after news of this bribe.
However, there has been blowback to this piece. I saw on Bluesky someone noted that the anecdotes almost exclusively date to the period after Peltola’s husband died in a plane crash, which likely would explain why Peltola would be in bad shape.
Outbursts are one thing, especially cursing in anger. But using "retard" and "faggot", directed at staff no less, seems like something we shouldn't just wave away. We might not like it, but it's newsworthy. If this was Collins doing the same I think we might be putting a fork in her.
But not surprising. As someone from a predominantly rural state like Alaska, even my most liberal friends still drop an R-word from time to time, and I hear the F one commonly as well. Peltola should know better, but she doesn't.
Like redistricting -- Trump and his allies opened the door to this not mattering, electorally speaking. We can't let it matter for our side if it doesn't matter for their side.
Hard disagree. The Republican Party is the party of bigotry and intolerance; the Democratic Party is the opposite. So no, we shouldn't accept such slurs from Democratic candidates. I'm not suggesting not voting for her, though!
Republican outrage at things they regularly do and accept shouldn't rope us into destroying our own candidates. Tan suits and bombing Iran is not a "both sides do bad things" equivalence. If Peltola used bad words, our response should be private guidance. No need to pile on to insincere Republican attacks.
I agree with you, but I think the fact that it was right after her husband died can be sufficient for voters, along with an apology. (How long ago was it, btw?) I also in no way think this alone would sink Collins in Maine.
Sudden death. I think she should be given a lot of consideration for not being herself during such a time. But she still should not use slurs like that.
Dropping slurs like f bombs, the r word and bigoted insults even among those that aren't actual bigots is a very real thing especially when people get angry or frustrated. For better or worse, politicians are known to be scumbags and have bad tempers. We should also consider that these events coincided around the time that Peltola's last husband passed away in a tragic plane crash. Her predecessor in the House, Don Young, apparently had an even more explosive temper and once drew a knife at speaker Boehner's throat in a debate.
Like it or not, I'm not usually voting for politicians because I like them as people. I'm voting for them based upon the policies they support. Sure having a charming and friendly person is great, but it's hardly gonna win me over if I disagree with their views. If Peltola was in a close contested primary with other credible Democrats or this wasn't a blue wave year, this might hurt her. But as it is I seriously doubt it. There's too much at stake for many voters and she hasn't committed any crimes nor done something horrific or egregious policy wise. The same couldn't be said for Porter because she was in a highly contested primary. Klobuchar also managed to get away with mistreatment of staff and a bad temper because she's still a strong candidate otherwise.
I will say this is another reason I respect and admire Obama as a leader and person. He's rarely quick to anger, willing to socialize and interact with people including his staff, and he doesn't allow any arrogance he may have lead to him mistreating others. I do wish more politicians acted as Obama does, but that may be a matter of personality and standards.
I will also say that this isn't new news. It's been known and in circulation for months now during the primary. So if voters were to react to this, it would have been ages ago, not now.
This is not a nothingburger. Apparently, it's a longstanding pattern of behavior and involved using a variety of slurs. It is a valid story from a respected media source and we should take it seriously. That said, she's our only chance in AK, so we're ride or die with her regardless.
Is Angie Nixon actually a member of the Democratic Socialists of America? I have read conflicting reports, one of which said that she was once associated with the group but no longer is. I know that it is a red flag that Republicans like to wave. I pay less attention to group labeling and prefer to focus on what the person has done in office, her platform, and how she intends to accomplish goals in elected office.
Might be the only person in human history to decide they were running statewide in Florida and come to the conclusion that the right thing to do was to *checks notes* join DSA.
Yeah, but that polling data is old now even if its release is new: it was conducted from August 28-September 14, so it started nearly a month ago and was completed a week and a half ago. Plus it took longer to conduct than the 14 day maximum for TDB coverage.
WATN? - Former Minnesota state Sen. Justin Eichorn (R), who was busted for child sexual exploitation while being an elected official, was sentenced to a mere 16 months in prison.
Couldn't happen to a nicer guy. Just wish he got more time.
"An Iowa judge has dismissed President Donald Trump's lawsuit against The Des Moines Register and its former pollster over a poll that showed the president trailing former Vice-President Kamala Harris in the 2024 race.
The judge ruled that the poll was protected by the US Constitution, and dismissed the president's argument that pollster J Ann Selzer had engaged in "brazen election interference" and that the inaccurate prediction constituted fraud."
Argumentatively, it's all about whether Trump wins these legal cases or not. In this case, he isn't. That's what I mean by "it's gonna hurt for Trump." Regardless of the context or merit, he likes to win. And we don't want that to happen.
As long as he loses more cases and wins less, that's where things go from this standpoint.
It's pettiness more than anything but in the end, he really doesn't like to lose. Any losses he gets in court won't make him stop and learn his lesson.
City and State NY, back in May (so the article is slightly dated), already started trying to figure out who might run for Governor when Hochul inevitably calls it quits. Here’s who they floated:
- NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani
- NY Attorney General Letitia James
- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Rep./House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries
- Rep. Ritchie Torres
- Rep. Pat Ryan
- (Rep. Dan Goldman was mentioned, but only if he won his primary. Now that we know that he lost by a lot, we can probably ignore him.)
- Buffalo Mayor Sean Ryan
- Former Syracuse Mayor Ben Walsh
- State Sen. James Skoufis
- State Assemb. Brian Cunningham
- State Sen. Zellnor Myrie
- State Sen. Andrew Gounardes
- State Sen. Julia Salazar
- State Assemb. Michaelle Solages
- State Assemb./likely State Sen.-elect Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas
- State Assemb./likely Rep.-elect Micah Lasher
- State Assemb. Alex Bores
- NYC Councilman Chi Ossé
- Former NYC Council Speaker/Hochul’s LG pick Adrienne Adams
- (GOP) Rep. Mike Lawler
- (GOP) Suffolk County DA Ray Tierney
Thoughts? Admittedly some of these are a bit far fetched, I think - Salazar, for one, seems disinterested in higher office - but I’m curious to know everyone else’s thoughts. Should Hochul step down in 2030 (or even lose), who might give it a go?
Too soon for Zohran Mamdani to make a run for Governor but I could see him being in the role for sure. He's so far he's shown to be competent on the job as NYC Mayor even amid the occasional problem.
Being Governor could also help broaden his appeal in upstate NY. Mamdani also for several years served in the NY State Assembly so he's familiar with the system.
AOC on the other hand I don't think would want to be Governor. Senator certainly as it would be a natural transition for her but being Governor may be more of a distraction as AOC's drive fits Congress more.
I would be shocked as well. Mamdani is more interested in serving as NYC Mayor than he is trying to move up the political ladder in his career. Also, he’s 34 so it’s not as if he needs to move too quickly anyway.
WATN? - The bodyguard and lover of former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) was accused of destroying $200 thousand worth in paintings at her home in the Phoenix suburb of Cave Creek, when she was out of town.
Agree. ME-2 and NH Gov also seem so. I don't think UNH polls are particularly biased but they are historically, not the highest quality. I hope they are on-target this time.
The ME 2 number wouldn’t surprise me and the NH 1 number is certainly not out of line. And, if anything, Maine Governor is too Republican friendly. So, it’s a mixed bag.
I had the same thought. I don't think we can beat Scott, but if we do, it certainly won't be by 6 points. That ME-02 result feels a bit too optimistic to me as well.
Looking at the sample, it seems accurate (62-31 Harris, 64-32 in 2024), and Balint is leading 66-30, which is entirely reasonable. Scott's approval rating has been slipping since he started his term, and some of the polls pre-primary showed Scott leading, but not by the commanding margins seen in 2020-2024. I'm willing to believe it.
OK...fill me in as I am ignorant about technicalities of polling: Jackson is +4 over Collins and the poll has a m/e of 2.7%....why do people use the phrase "statistical tie" to describe this poll?
"Statistical tie" is pretty meaningless. But what it means is that if the poll represents a random sample of the voting population, the probability that the outcome is different than the one predicted is above 5%.
No poll is ever a truly random sample of the voting population. Most of pollsters "secret sauce" is trying to correct for the fact that getting a good sample is hard. And if you could be guaranteed that you actually had a random sample, you wouldn't describe a 90+% chance of winning as a "tie". Basically the idea is combining two unrelated things, that the sample may be biased in some way and that a result outside the margin of error is unlikely to be wrong on an unbiased sample. But that doesn't mean a result within the margin of error is "tied". It's a confusing and misleading term that should be avoided.
A margin of error is plus or minus, so the full range is double the minimum of error (in this cause adding 2.7% to one candidate while deducting it from the other). Therefore 4% is within the margin of error.
I don't know who Wedgewood polls is and it's shady that they refuse to identify themselves, but their results do seem to match recent polling data, even if they may be herding.
It is also a bit surprising that the Libertarians failed to nominate a candidate for the governor race, but got a candidate for the senate race. Perhaps they devoted all their resources to the senate campaign, but it still doesn't add up. 2026 is a historically unpopular year for the incumbent party. That's a ripe time for 3rd parties to nominate and promote their candidates and brand to draw in angry and discontent voters.
Times/Siena Senate polls:
El-Sayed 49-45
Pappas 50-45
Collins 49-46
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/24/polls/times-siena-poll-mi-toplines.html
Was this poll taken before or after the Collins bribery scandal?
It says that the polls were conducted from September 15-22, so just right at or right before the bribery scandal.
Story broke on the final day of polling.
Unfortunately that wouldn’t surprise me with Maine. Collins’ reelection chances have nothing to do with things like our strength on the generic ballot.
Well it kinda does. She'd be favored if the generic ballot was R+1; she isn't now that it's D+9 (or more)
That fucking idiot consultant who is going to cost us the Senate needs to be made special envoy to Antarctica in 2029.
Siberia
Who is that?
Maybe the person/people who pushed successfully for Platner? Of course, voters didn't have to go along until he became completely untenable.
Regardless of the final result, Platner should be a cautionary tale against the "Looky! Common man! Populist! Says what he thinks! Will bring blue collar voters back to Democrats!" mentality.
I mean, Platner boatraced Mills with the actual Maine primary electorate. This comment tries to bypass voters' agency and blame consultants.
How would that cost the Senate? He's not running now.
Comparing the last NYT poll of Platner to this one, Platner was polling better in almost every category - men, young people, millennials, white non-college, and those who didn't vote in 2024. Jackson's only standout is doing better with voters over 65.
New UMass/YouGov Maine poll just dropped
Jackson 48
Collins 43
of course, this will do little to ease the panic of the Chicken Little Society members!
Chyron on CNN right now: "New NYT Polls: No Clear Leader in MI, NH, ME"
I can't tell if they're being intentionally disingenuous or have someone incompetent running their political shop
both!!
Once more NYT leans more conservative among the nonpartisan pollsters even in a blue wave year.
That aside, it is notable that neither Jackson nor Collins have broken over 50% in their polls, save 1 from an obscure pollster a few weeks ago for Jackson. While I won't say that benefits Jackson yet since he's also below 50%, it doesn't help Collins either. Incumbent or not, this is a midterm election and a referendum on a historically unpopular president. And unlike 2020, this isn't a presidential election, so Collins won't have the benefit of low propensity voters to boost her numbers and bypass poll data. If anything, angry and new voters may swing stronger the other way, but I guess we will see, especially after news of this bribe.
PA 7 and PA 10 Franklin & Marshall polls:
Brooks 45 MacKenzie 40
Stetson 47 Perry 44
https://www.wgal.com/article/pa-election-stelson-perry-shapiro-trump-poll/73836465
Times/Siena PA Governor poll:
Shapiro: 58%
Garrity: 38%
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Dems: 53%
Reps: 44%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/09/24/polls/times-inquirer-siena-pa-poll-lv-crosstabs.html
AK-SEN:
So recently the New York Times put out a piece claiming Mary Peltola had a history of outbursts in her campaign:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/us/politics/mary-peltola-alaska-senate-race.html
However, there has been blowback to this piece. I saw on Bluesky someone noted that the anecdotes almost exclusively date to the period after Peltola’s husband died in a plane crash, which likely would explain why Peltola would be in bad shape.
What has become of the New York Times?
Sometimes they look like the National Enquirer.
They report about outbursts all the time, as if that's news. Stupid.
Someone also rightfully pointed out that these “toxic workplace” hit pieces mysteriously only come out about candidates who are women….
also Peltola has been in elected office for almost 30 years and all these anecdotes are from after her husband passed away.
Outbursts are one thing, especially cursing in anger. But using "retard" and "faggot", directed at staff no less, seems like something we shouldn't just wave away. We might not like it, but it's newsworthy. If this was Collins doing the same I think we might be putting a fork in her.
If corroborated, that kind of language is extremely disappointing from someone of Peltola's stature. Good grief.
But not surprising. As someone from a predominantly rural state like Alaska, even my most liberal friends still drop an R-word from time to time, and I hear the F one commonly as well. Peltola should know better, but she doesn't.
Like redistricting -- Trump and his allies opened the door to this not mattering, electorally speaking. We can't let it matter for our side if it doesn't matter for their side.
Hard disagree. The Republican Party is the party of bigotry and intolerance; the Democratic Party is the opposite. So no, we shouldn't accept such slurs from Democratic candidates. I'm not suggesting not voting for her, though!
Obviously the slurs are bad. But advocating voting for her is sort of an acceptance
Republican outrage at things they regularly do and accept shouldn't rope us into destroying our own candidates. Tan suits and bombing Iran is not a "both sides do bad things" equivalence. If Peltola used bad words, our response should be private guidance. No need to pile on to insincere Republican attacks.
I agree with you, but I think the fact that it was right after her husband died can be sufficient for voters, along with an apology. (How long ago was it, btw?) I also in no way think this alone would sink Collins in Maine.
Buzzy Peltola died in a plane crash in 2023.
Sudden death. I think she should be given a lot of consideration for not being herself during such a time. But she still should not use slurs like that.
Dropping slurs like f bombs, the r word and bigoted insults even among those that aren't actual bigots is a very real thing especially when people get angry or frustrated. For better or worse, politicians are known to be scumbags and have bad tempers. We should also consider that these events coincided around the time that Peltola's last husband passed away in a tragic plane crash. Her predecessor in the House, Don Young, apparently had an even more explosive temper and once drew a knife at speaker Boehner's throat in a debate.
Like it or not, I'm not usually voting for politicians because I like them as people. I'm voting for them based upon the policies they support. Sure having a charming and friendly person is great, but it's hardly gonna win me over if I disagree with their views. If Peltola was in a close contested primary with other credible Democrats or this wasn't a blue wave year, this might hurt her. But as it is I seriously doubt it. There's too much at stake for many voters and she hasn't committed any crimes nor done something horrific or egregious policy wise. The same couldn't be said for Porter because she was in a highly contested primary. Klobuchar also managed to get away with mistreatment of staff and a bad temper because she's still a strong candidate otherwise.
I will say this is another reason I respect and admire Obama as a leader and person. He's rarely quick to anger, willing to socialize and interact with people including his staff, and he doesn't allow any arrogance he may have lead to him mistreating others. I do wish more politicians acted as Obama does, but that may be a matter of personality and standards.
We've got a mad man in the White House that needs to be put in time out for the remainder of his presidency and this is supposed to be news?
Hard to argue that reporters shouldn't be breaking news about a Senate nominee's temperament just because Trump exists and behaves badly.
With only a few weeks before the election, I question the timing.
Also, if I’m not mistaken, this was a problem with Peltola before. Now it’s news all of a sudden?
I will also say that this isn't new news. It's been known and in circulation for months now during the primary. So if voters were to react to this, it would have been ages ago, not now.
This is not a nothingburger. Apparently, it's a longstanding pattern of behavior and involved using a variety of slurs. It is a valid story from a respected media source and we should take it seriously. That said, she's our only chance in AK, so we're ride or die with her regardless.
I think we all are going to be very late in Election night. But rooting for wins in races we never had on the radar last February.
Is Angie Nixon actually a member of the Democratic Socialists of America? I have read conflicting reports, one of which said that she was once associated with the group but no longer is. I know that it is a red flag that Republicans like to wave. I pay less attention to group labeling and prefer to focus on what the person has done in office, her platform, and how she intends to accomplish goals in elected office.
She joined DSA and the Working Families Party this year. Considering the timing I wouldn't be surprised if it was performative.
Might be the only person in human history to decide they were running statewide in Florida and come to the conclusion that the right thing to do was to *checks notes* join DSA.
If the shoe fits...polling has suggested it could be within 10%.
Right??
Maine
🔵 Troy Jackson 48%
🔴 Susan Collins (Inc) 43%
UMass Lowell/YouGov - LV
Yeah, but that polling data is old now even if its release is new: it was conducted from August 28-September 14, so it started nearly a month ago and was completed a week and a half ago. Plus it took longer to conduct than the 14 day maximum for TDB coverage.
Anyone on the ground in Alaska able to share what’s going on in the trenches ?
Well, can't accuse the NY polls of herding, that's for sure.
https://local12.com/news/nation-world/former-state-senator-justin-eichorn-sentenced-16-months-prison-undercorver-sex-sting-minnesota
WATN? - Former Minnesota state Sen. Justin Eichorn (R), who was busted for child sexual exploitation while being an elected official, was sentenced to a mere 16 months in prison.
Couldn't happen to a nicer guy. Just wish he got more time.
Hopefully we start getting more polling now that we're in the stretch run. I've wondered if Louisiana could become a sleeper race.
Very deep sleeper. What would make LA prone to a flip?
The start of a DEEP recession.
A diesel export ban would be world-ending in the Gulf
The lack of information about the sample (or anything else) makes me doubt the accuracy of the poll
Iowa Judge Dismisses Trump's Lawsuit Against the Des Moines Register and Former Pollster Ann Selzer
Ooh, that's gonna hurt for Trump.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/judge-dismisses-trump-lawsuit-against-iowa-newspaper-and-pollster-over-2024-race/ar-AA2cUm84?ocid=TobArticle
"An Iowa judge has dismissed President Donald Trump's lawsuit against The Des Moines Register and its former pollster over a poll that showed the president trailing former Vice-President Kamala Harris in the 2024 race.
The judge ruled that the poll was protected by the US Constitution, and dismissed the president's argument that pollster J Ann Selzer had engaged in "brazen election interference" and that the inaccurate prediction constituted fraud."
It will only hurt if the judge makes him pay for her counsel fees. This is the epitome of frivolous litigation.
Anyone know if Iowa has an anti-SLAPP law?
Argumentatively, it's all about whether Trump wins these legal cases or not. In this case, he isn't. That's what I mean by "it's gonna hurt for Trump." Regardless of the context or merit, he likes to win. And we don't want that to happen.
As long as he loses more cases and wins less, that's where things go from this standpoint.
Trump has been filing lawsuits for reasons other than the prospect of winning them since before I was born (I'm Gen X).
It's pettiness more than anything but in the end, he really doesn't like to lose. Any losses he gets in court won't make him stop and learn his lesson.
NY-Gov 2030 (or whenever Hochul calls it quits):
https://www.cityandstateny.com/20th-anniversary/2026/05/whos-going-be-next-new-york-governor/413437/
City and State NY, back in May (so the article is slightly dated), already started trying to figure out who might run for Governor when Hochul inevitably calls it quits. Here’s who they floated:
- NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani
- NY Attorney General Letitia James
- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Rep./House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries
- Rep. Ritchie Torres
- Rep. Pat Ryan
- (Rep. Dan Goldman was mentioned, but only if he won his primary. Now that we know that he lost by a lot, we can probably ignore him.)
- Buffalo Mayor Sean Ryan
- Former Syracuse Mayor Ben Walsh
- State Sen. James Skoufis
- State Assemb. Brian Cunningham
- State Sen. Zellnor Myrie
- State Sen. Andrew Gounardes
- State Sen. Julia Salazar
- State Assemb. Michaelle Solages
- State Assemb./likely State Sen.-elect Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas
- State Assemb./likely Rep.-elect Micah Lasher
- State Assemb. Alex Bores
- NYC Councilman Chi Ossé
- Former NYC Council Speaker/Hochul’s LG pick Adrienne Adams
- (GOP) Rep. Mike Lawler
- (GOP) Suffolk County DA Ray Tierney
Thoughts? Admittedly some of these are a bit far fetched, I think - Salazar, for one, seems disinterested in higher office - but I’m curious to know everyone else’s thoughts. Should Hochul step down in 2030 (or even lose), who might give it a go?
Too soon for Zohran Mamdani to make a run for Governor but I could see him being in the role for sure. He's so far he's shown to be competent on the job as NYC Mayor even amid the occasional problem.
Being Governor could also help broaden his appeal in upstate NY. Mamdani also for several years served in the NY State Assembly so he's familiar with the system.
AOC on the other hand I don't think would want to be Governor. Senator certainly as it would be a natural transition for her but being Governor may be more of a distraction as AOC's drive fits Congress more.
I would be shocked if Mamdani left office partway through his second term (assuming he wins one). I think he genuinely loves being NYC Mayor.
Also the history of NYC mayors seeking higher office is grim.
If anyone can beat that history, I think it's Mamdani.
I would be shocked as well. Mamdani is more interested in serving as NYC Mayor than he is trying to move up the political ladder in his career. Also, he’s 34 so it’s not as if he needs to move too quickly anyway.
https://www.12news.com/article/news/politics/ex-bodyguard-of-former-arizona-senator-kyrsten-sinema-arrested-after-allegedly-damaging-home/75-6321dc3f-1b38-41d4-b3c5-18f1a0748efb
WATN? - The bodyguard and lover of former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) was accused of destroying $200 thousand worth in paintings at her home in the Phoenix suburb of Cave Creek, when she was out of town.
That’s a real shame
oh no.... Anyway.
I was literally picturing this exact Jeremy Clarkson gif when I read this
UNH has two new polls of LV's out today:
NH Sen: Pappas 50%-Sununu 42%
ME Sen: Jackson 51%-Collins 47%
Both surveys were taken 9/17-9/21. Maine was of 1,312 LV's and has a m/e of 2.7%. NH was of 1,418 LV's and has a m/e of 2.5%.
And more:
Maine Governor
🟦Hannah Pingree 48%
🟥Bobby Charles 40%
⬜️Rick Bennett 5%
——
US House | Maine 2 CD
🟦Matt Dunlap 51%
🟥Paul LePage 45%
——
New Hampshire Governor 2026
🟥Kelly Ayotte 47%
🟦Cinde Warmington 43%
🟨Stephen Villee 2%
——
And the eye-popper: Governor Vermont General Poll
🟦 Janoo (D) 49%
🟥 Scott (R) 43%
🟨 Judd (L) 2%
Nice. All around. But that VT result makes me wonder if it’s a little too Dem friendly.
Agree. ME-2 and NH Gov also seem so. I don't think UNH polls are particularly biased but they are historically, not the highest quality. I hope they are on-target this time.
The ME 2 number wouldn’t surprise me and the NH 1 number is certainly not out of line. And, if anything, Maine Governor is too Republican friendly. So, it’s a mixed bag.
I had the same thought. I don't think we can beat Scott, but if we do, it certainly won't be by 6 points. That ME-02 result feels a bit too optimistic to me as well.
Looking at the sample, it seems accurate (62-31 Harris, 64-32 in 2024), and Balint is leading 66-30, which is entirely reasonable. Scott's approval rating has been slipping since he started his term, and some of the polls pre-primary showed Scott leading, but not by the commanding margins seen in 2020-2024. I'm willing to believe it.
Also Shaheen +4 in NH 1 and Ayotte +4. Goodlander +21 in NH 2.
link to PDF for curious folk https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2006&context=survey_center_polls
Thanks. I forgot to link. There's a lot there.
OK...fill me in as I am ignorant about technicalities of polling: Jackson is +4 over Collins and the poll has a m/e of 2.7%....why do people use the phrase "statistical tie" to describe this poll?
"Statistical tie" is pretty meaningless. But what it means is that if the poll represents a random sample of the voting population, the probability that the outcome is different than the one predicted is above 5%.
No poll is ever a truly random sample of the voting population. Most of pollsters "secret sauce" is trying to correct for the fact that getting a good sample is hard. And if you could be guaranteed that you actually had a random sample, you wouldn't describe a 90+% chance of winning as a "tie". Basically the idea is combining two unrelated things, that the sample may be biased in some way and that a result outside the margin of error is unlikely to be wrong on an unbiased sample. But that doesn't mean a result within the margin of error is "tied". It's a confusing and misleading term that should be avoided.
The lead would have to be 6 to be outside the margin of error.
The sampling MOE applies to each of the results, not to the margin between the results.
A margin of error is plus or minus, so the full range is double the minimum of error (in this cause adding 2.7% to one candidate while deducting it from the other). Therefore 4% is within the margin of error.
What's not the matter with Kansas..
Wedgewood poll | 9/22-9/24 LV | Kansas statewide races 2026
US Senate
🟦Adam Hamilton 50%
🟥Roger Marshall 48% (incumbent)
——
Kansas Governor
🟥Ty Masterson 52%
🟦Cindy Holscher 48%
I don't know who Wedgewood polls is and it's shady that they refuse to identify themselves, but their results do seem to match recent polling data, even if they may be herding.
It is also a bit surprising that the Libertarians failed to nominate a candidate for the governor race, but got a candidate for the senate race. Perhaps they devoted all their resources to the senate campaign, but it still doesn't add up. 2026 is a historically unpopular year for the incumbent party. That's a ripe time for 3rd parties to nominate and promote their candidates and brand to draw in angry and discontent voters.
I think their "polls" would never meet Downballot standards.
Any pollster that refuses to identify themselves by default would always fail to meet my standards.
Adam Hamilton may be the most underrated Dem recruit this cycle
saw him on a 5 min piece on news last night...impressive!
Every one in a swing race is great. I couldn't ask for better candidates, on paper at least, in most competitive races this cycle.