I’ve been thinking for a while that our chances here are being underestimated. Kansas only voted 3 points to the right of Iowa in 2024, and it has trended our way since the 2010s. We know we have a coalition that can win statewide in Kansas since we’ve done it before. Hamilton is a strong, unorthodox candidate, while Marshall is lackluster and has scandals that have now gotten a bunch of attention. Kansas has been hit hard by the tariffs, and Kansas is a top 20 state in the US when it comes to educational attainment (the only state that voted for Trump, Romney, or McCain where a higher percentage of voters have college degrees is Utah). I think we can win it.
I agree. It felt it was close already but I feared it was illusory. The last (only prior?) poll had Marshall up by 5 but it was conducted by a Republican leaning pollster.
Marshall has been pounded for his home in Florida and particularly, when it became known that he sued numerous patients (when he was practicing medicine) for failure to pay their bills, even forcing many into bankruptcy. His response: They owed the money.
OTOH, Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist minister, seems genuine and nice and "for the average person." He is also a great speaker and apparently kicked Marshall's ass at a debate.
Interesting. I'm sure there are excellent reasons why this poll should be completely ignored (along with the one from Idaho this morning), but recent MN and NH polls showing certain results should be treated as gospel.
Tbf, I am completely ignoring the poll from Idaho this morning. I refuse to believe the independent candidate strategy is strong enough to be up 6 in a state where Trump won by 36 points.
Kansas Emerson:
Hamilton 45 Marshall 43 Graham (L) 4
Masterson 51 Holscher 44
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/
Interesting to have an incumbent down rather than winning an open seat.
I’ve been thinking for a while that our chances here are being underestimated. Kansas only voted 3 points to the right of Iowa in 2024, and it has trended our way since the 2010s. We know we have a coalition that can win statewide in Kansas since we’ve done it before. Hamilton is a strong, unorthodox candidate, while Marshall is lackluster and has scandals that have now gotten a bunch of attention. Kansas has been hit hard by the tariffs, and Kansas is a top 20 state in the US when it comes to educational attainment (the only state that voted for Trump, Romney, or McCain where a higher percentage of voters have college degrees is Utah). I think we can win it.
I agree. It felt it was close already but I feared it was illusory. The last (only prior?) poll had Marshall up by 5 but it was conducted by a Republican leaning pollster.
Marshall has been pounded for his home in Florida and particularly, when it became known that he sued numerous patients (when he was practicing medicine) for failure to pay their bills, even forcing many into bankruptcy. His response: They owed the money.
OTOH, Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist minister, seems genuine and nice and "for the average person." He is also a great speaker and apparently kicked Marshall's ass at a debate.
Interesting. I'm sure there are excellent reasons why this poll should be completely ignored (along with the one from Idaho this morning), but recent MN and NH polls showing certain results should be treated as gospel.
Tbf, I am completely ignoring the poll from Idaho this morning. I refuse to believe the independent candidate strategy is strong enough to be up 6 in a state where Trump won by 36 points.
Yes, very hard to believe and don’t know the pollster.
Emerson (Kansas poll) is also a well-respected pollster. Advanced Targeting Research (Idaho poll) is not.
This is completely believable, Marshall has real issues and Kansas is blueing. Just as there are reasons the NH and MN polls are plausbile.
I encourage all who can to donate to Rodriguez and help flip FL-27.
Insider Advantage (R leaning)
Pappas 48-40
Cooper 48, Whatley 43
El Sayed 47, Rogers 45
https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-national-u-s-senate-surveys-n-c-cooper-48-whatley-43-mi-elsayed-47-rogers-45-nh-pappas-48-sununu-40/