Typically governor's races tend to be less nationalized than federal races. It looks like it's sort of working in the opposite direction of 2022, despite Masterson being Trump's guy.
I'm guessing that Brownback's "legacy" is wearing off after 8 years, whereas Trump's bullshit and Marshall's enabling of it is extremely obvious and very salient.
I’ve been thinking for a while that our chances here are being underestimated. Kansas only voted 3 points to the right of Iowa in 2024, and it has trended our way since the 2010s. We know we have a coalition that can win statewide in Kansas since we’ve done it before. Hamilton is a strong, unorthodox candidate, while Marshall is lackluster and has scandals that have now gotten a bunch of attention. Kansas has been hit hard by the tariffs, and Kansas is a top 20 state in the US when it comes to educational attainment (the only state that voted for Trump, Romney, or McCain where a higher percentage of voters have college degrees is Utah). I think we can win it.
I agree. It felt it was close already but I feared it was illusory. The last (only prior?) poll had Marshall up by 5 but it was conducted by a Republican leaning pollster.
Marshall has been pounded for his home in Florida and particularly, when it became known that he sued numerous patients (when he was practicing medicine) for failure to pay their bills, even forcing many into bankruptcy. His response: They owed the money.
OTOH, Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist minister, seems genuine and nice and "for the average person." He is also a great speaker and apparently kicked Marshall's ass at a debate.
Vance has already been there, and Sen. Kennedy is making a trip to campaign and fundraise for Marshall. Surely having a GOP Vice President make campaign stops in Kansas signals a close midterm election...
What makes you think that? For all we know he could just be sightseeing. They've got a lot of touristy things to do like... watch Adam Hamilton win in November :P
Interesting. I'm sure there are excellent reasons why this poll should be completely ignored (along with the one from Idaho this morning), but recent MN and NH polls showing certain results should be treated as gospel.
Tbf, I am completely ignoring the poll from Idaho this morning. I refuse to believe the independent candidate strategy is strong enough to be up 6 in a state where Trump won by 36 points.
I'd say the Kansas polls signal that the MN/NH polls are probably off. In a nationalized electoral environment, localized issues can only carry so much of the day, and "pox on both houses" voters often lean toward the national trend in the end.
Emerson's a pretty reputable pollster. A 45-43 result from Emerson makes me feel way more enthusiastic about our chances than a 50-40 poll from PPP or Trafalgar, for example
The Idaho poll on the other hand, I don't buy it. I don't necessarily think it's impossible for it to be a close, sleeper race, but Idaho is *VERY* Republican. Far more than Nebraska, Montana (fuck you Bankhead), and even South Dakota. From what I remember, there was this poll that showed Trump's approval state-by-state, and only three states gave him good numbers: Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Idaho. The only things I can think of that would explain this result is Jim Risch being a more "normie" Republican (and thus not exciting the nazis in the state) and also being extremely old, but even still I can't buy an In-dem-pendent being up by that much just yet. That's not even mentioning that we don't know who this pollster is or their track record.
I never thought I'd see the day that Democrats would be leading in Kansas of all places, and in a nonpartisan poll at that. Emerson has been notoriously quite conservative leaning so this is even more surprising.
To top that off, they also have a poll with Talarico leading in Texas. We are living in strange times.
I share the exact same sentiment. I think he’s going to win by the least amount and only because of the political environment. I love him, don’t get me wrong, I think he’s amazing, but Republicans have been effective with sowing fear about him.
With no small amount of help from the news media which insists on pretending Hasan Piker is running for Senate.
The national environment is probably enough for AES to win, but those who warned about him being a riskier choice electorally for whatever reasons were likely right. If he does prevail hopefully he'll work hard to entrench himself and convert some skeptics.
So, I have no idea if the poll linked here is legit, but if it is, 60% of NC voters think Roy Cooper will enact DSA policies if elected, and Cooper is also ahead 15 points at the same time.
Most of the "yes" comes from Republicans who would believe Joe Manchin was a communist if Fox News told them
Some of the "yes" comes from Democrats/independents who hope he does, and/or think that "DSA policy priorities" are just things like universal healthcare, taxing the rich, etc
Apparently “I voted with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of schools” is a Dem ad talking point now.
This could mean one of two things I think, neither good. Either A. this level of transphobia has been normalized among conservative Dems, or B. Kaptur is not doing well in polling and is desperate, kind of like how another poster mentioned Bob Casey did with Trump at the end of the 2024 cycle. Or a third thing I did not consider. Anyone have an idea why this is being attempted by a Dem?
That’s why I’m curious about who does better. I just want to see one candidate push back on these bad faith arguments and portray the end result of these policies: Republicans want to look under your teen daughter’s shorts to play soccer.
Third Thing: Kaptur's district was made even more Republican, and like many other Dems thinks the way to win conservatives over is by engaging in culture war bullshit. I still don't buy that though. The people who care the most about that kind of thing are already solidly Republican.
I'm not even saying that Kaptur or other Dems in red/swing districts have to go out and be super openly pro-transgender rights (although i would applaud their courage), just stop giving in to culture war bullshit and throwing an already extremely vulnerable minority group under the bus. All it does is normalize discrimination and create a self-fulfilling prophecy where Dems adopt conservative rhetoric on an issue, people who approve those views vote for Republicans who are still more conservative on that issue, Dems try to move further to the right to win those voters, and so on.
Taking a conservative approach to culture war issues is *still* engaging with culture war issues that most people aren't concerned about. I'm skeptical about how much of a role it played in 2024, but in 2026 it's definitely not going to work, not for Republicans and not for Democrats who fall for the bait.
I think its affect on 2024 was negligible. It was the economy and the topic that shall not be named that were more salient than transgender issues. On top of that. People who won’t vote for Dems over the issue or make it a focal point of their politics weren’t voting for you anyway.
It's also surprisingly salient among women voters too, regardless of ideology.
Only an anecdote, so take with a grain of salt from a data standpoint obviously, but I was surprised my sister and her female friends, who are normally liberal on everything else, are vehemently against transgender women being allowed to play in women's sports.
With clips like this, Marshall’s re-election prospects look dimmer each day. I genuinely wonder if we’ll pull off an upset here. The Emerson poll is a good sign, they’re a good pollster as far as I know.
Kansas Emerson:
Hamilton 45 Marshall 43 Graham (L) 4
Masterson 51 Holscher 44
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/
Interesting to have an incumbent down rather than winning an open seat.
Typically governor's races tend to be less nationalized than federal races. It looks like it's sort of working in the opposite direction of 2022, despite Masterson being Trump's guy.
I'm guessing that Brownback's "legacy" is wearing off after 8 years, whereas Trump's bullshit and Marshall's enabling of it is extremely obvious and very salient.
I’ve been thinking for a while that our chances here are being underestimated. Kansas only voted 3 points to the right of Iowa in 2024, and it has trended our way since the 2010s. We know we have a coalition that can win statewide in Kansas since we’ve done it before. Hamilton is a strong, unorthodox candidate, while Marshall is lackluster and has scandals that have now gotten a bunch of attention. Kansas has been hit hard by the tariffs, and Kansas is a top 20 state in the US when it comes to educational attainment (the only state that voted for Trump, Romney, or McCain where a higher percentage of voters have college degrees is Utah). I think we can win it.
I agree. It felt it was close already but I feared it was illusory. The last (only prior?) poll had Marshall up by 5 but it was conducted by a Republican leaning pollster.
Marshall has been pounded for his home in Florida and particularly, when it became known that he sued numerous patients (when he was practicing medicine) for failure to pay their bills, even forcing many into bankruptcy. His response: They owed the money.
OTOH, Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist minister, seems genuine and nice and "for the average person." He is also a great speaker and apparently kicked Marshall's ass at a debate.
Vance has already been there, and Sen. Kennedy is making a trip to campaign and fundraise for Marshall. Surely having a GOP Vice President make campaign stops in Kansas signals a close midterm election...
What makes you think that? For all we know he could just be sightseeing. They've got a lot of touristy things to do like... watch Adam Hamilton win in November :P
Like Dorothy's House and the Land of Oz, as well as the House of Mud (actually sod) in or near the ironically named Liberal.
Interesting. I'm sure there are excellent reasons why this poll should be completely ignored (along with the one from Idaho this morning), but recent MN and NH polls showing certain results should be treated as gospel.
Tbf, I am completely ignoring the poll from Idaho this morning. I refuse to believe the independent candidate strategy is strong enough to be up 6 in a state where Trump won by 36 points.
Yes, very hard to believe and don’t know the pollster.
Emerson (Kansas poll) is also a well-respected pollster. Advanced Targeting Research (Idaho poll) is not.
This is completely believable, Marshall has real issues and Kansas is blueing. Just as there are reasons the NH and MN polls are plausbile.
I'd say the Kansas polls signal that the MN/NH polls are probably off. In a nationalized electoral environment, localized issues can only carry so much of the day, and "pox on both houses" voters often lean toward the national trend in the end.
Emerson's a pretty reputable pollster. A 45-43 result from Emerson makes me feel way more enthusiastic about our chances than a 50-40 poll from PPP or Trafalgar, for example
The Idaho poll on the other hand, I don't buy it. I don't necessarily think it's impossible for it to be a close, sleeper race, but Idaho is *VERY* Republican. Far more than Nebraska, Montana (fuck you Bankhead), and even South Dakota. From what I remember, there was this poll that showed Trump's approval state-by-state, and only three states gave him good numbers: Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Idaho. The only things I can think of that would explain this result is Jim Risch being a more "normie" Republican (and thus not exciting the nazis in the state) and also being extremely old, but even still I can't buy an In-dem-pendent being up by that much just yet. That's not even mentioning that we don't know who this pollster is or their track record.
I never thought I'd see the day that Democrats would be leading in Kansas of all places, and in a nonpartisan poll at that. Emerson has been notoriously quite conservative leaning so this is even more surprising.
To top that off, they also have a poll with Talarico leading in Texas. We are living in strange times.
I encourage all who can to donate to Rodriguez and help flip FL-27.
Insider Advantage (R leaning)
Pappas 48-40
Cooper 48, Whatley 43
El Sayed 47, Rogers 45
https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-national-u-s-senate-surveys-n-c-cooper-48-whatley-43-mi-elsayed-47-rogers-45-nh-pappas-48-sununu-40/
Sounds about right, for all of them.
I feel like El Sayed is going to squeak by a couple points.. political environment doing a lot of the lifting. Hope he can hold on in 6 years.
I share the exact same sentiment. I think he’s going to win by the least amount and only because of the political environment. I love him, don’t get me wrong, I think he’s amazing, but Republicans have been effective with sowing fear about him.
With no small amount of help from the news media which insists on pretending Hasan Piker is running for Senate.
The national environment is probably enough for AES to win, but those who warned about him being a riskier choice electorally for whatever reasons were likely right. If he does prevail hopefully he'll work hard to entrench himself and convert some skeptics.
NC-SEN:
https://bsky.app/profile/asinmarx.bsky.social/post/3mvqt6wegx22v
So, I have no idea if the poll linked here is legit, but if it is, 60% of NC voters think Roy Cooper will enact DSA policies if elected, and Cooper is also ahead 15 points at the same time.
I’m not even sure what to say.
Whatley: "Cooper is going to be a radical socialist!!!"
NC voters, apparently???: "Promise???"
It IS the poll in the morning digest. Click the link you should see the details.
Done by Art Pope’s right wing foundation. Take it with a grain of salt.
Ah, got it. I had a feeling the result was off.
My guess people who said yes are an intersection of Republicans who oppose him abs Democrats who hope that he does.
That's my theory
Most of the "yes" comes from Republicans who would believe Joe Manchin was a communist if Fox News told them
Some of the "yes" comes from Democrats/independents who hope he does, and/or think that "DSA policy priorities" are just things like universal healthcare, taxing the rich, etc
I honestly wonder if Republican attacks against socialism are actually driving voters towards Democrats.
I doubt it...socialism is pretty unpopular as a label, even if individual constituent parts of the philosophy are popular.
TN-9:
https://weareprogressives.org/congressional-progressive-caucus-pac-endorses-justin-j-pearson-for-tn-09/
To the surprise of no one, the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC is backing Justin Pearson.
OH Sen: Brown's ad takes on the transgender scaremongering:
"With everything going on, that's what they're talking about?"
https://x.com/MediumBuying/status/2100939388708352432?s=20
I’m very interested to see how candidates perform when they take this approach vs. Acton’s approach.
Or Marcy Kaptur’s.
https://bsky.app/profile/erininthemorning.com/post/3mvq6t5fyfc2f
Apparently “I voted with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of schools” is a Dem ad talking point now.
This could mean one of two things I think, neither good. Either A. this level of transphobia has been normalized among conservative Dems, or B. Kaptur is not doing well in polling and is desperate, kind of like how another poster mentioned Bob Casey did with Trump at the end of the 2024 cycle. Or a third thing I did not consider. Anyone have an idea why this is being attempted by a Dem?
That’s why I’m curious about who does better. I just want to see one candidate push back on these bad faith arguments and portray the end result of these policies: Republicans want to look under your teen daughter’s shorts to play soccer.
Third Thing: Kaptur's district was made even more Republican, and like many other Dems thinks the way to win conservatives over is by engaging in culture war bullshit. I still don't buy that though. The people who care the most about that kind of thing are already solidly Republican.
I'm not even saying that Kaptur or other Dems in red/swing districts have to go out and be super openly pro-transgender rights (although i would applaud their courage), just stop giving in to culture war bullshit and throwing an already extremely vulnerable minority group under the bus. All it does is normalize discrimination and create a self-fulfilling prophecy where Dems adopt conservative rhetoric on an issue, people who approve those views vote for Republicans who are still more conservative on that issue, Dems try to move further to the right to win those voters, and so on.
Taking a conservative approach to culture war issues is *still* engaging with culture war issues that most people aren't concerned about. I'm skeptical about how much of a role it played in 2024, but in 2026 it's definitely not going to work, not for Republicans and not for Democrats who fall for the bait.
I think its affect on 2024 was negligible. It was the economy and the topic that shall not be named that were more salient than transgender issues. On top of that. People who won’t vote for Dems over the issue or make it a focal point of their politics weren’t voting for you anyway.
I mean Kaptur is an old school Dem, she just may legit agree with the position.
It's being attempted by a Dem because it's an 80-20 issue among voters in Middle America and they want to distance themselves from the attacks.
It's also surprisingly salient among women voters too, regardless of ideology.
Only an anecdote, so take with a grain of salt from a data standpoint obviously, but I was surprised my sister and her female friends, who are normally liberal on everything else, are vehemently against transgender women being allowed to play in women's sports.
But will it work? Are people going to suddenly think Dems are anti trans?
Also can you provide a source for your Middle America poll?
And even if it is 80-20, how important of it is an issue? Are there polls indicating whether this matters as much as, say, the economy?
KS-SEN:
https://bsky.app/profile/headquartersnews.bsky.social/post/3mvsfbjgpcm25
With clips like this, Marshall’s re-election prospects look dimmer each day. I genuinely wonder if we’ll pull off an upset here. The Emerson poll is a good sign, they’re a good pollster as far as I know.
Sigh. I'm not too optimistic for this seat and I feel bad for his constituents if he wins again.
I was burned by the Bollier hype.
Interesting contrast between us. I've been bullish on beating Roger Marshall all year and bearish about electing Peggy Flanagan.
Any idea why the "undecided" category is getting bigger in NC? (At least I assume that's what these numbers mean)
NC-Sen: Harper Polling for the Carolina Journal:
Roy Cooper (D): 49, Michael Whatley (R): 34. [49 + 34 =83%]
Aug.: 52-39 Cooper. [52+ 39 = 91%]
34?? lol way to push Carolina Journal
Carolina Journal pushing voters: Feel free to pick one of these guys but no pressure if you're not feeling em :)
They may have been trying to get Cooper under 50% by not pushing leaners.