Casey needs a miracle. The formula for the miracle: Win Allegheny & Philadelphia 90-10; Win Delaware, Chester, Montgomery & Bucks 75-25; Split the rest of the Commonwealth 50-50.
Shapiro's approval rating is over 50% because he's competent. The GOP is probably going to nominate a lunatic outsider like they usually do. Also, the race will be run during a GOP Presidential mid-term without a US Senate race. Barring disaster, I like his chances.
Yesterday, Paleo pointed out that there were at least 40,000 votes left to count in Philadelphia, with the remainder of the then-92,000 remaining votes spread throughout the state. Casey has been winning 78% of the votes in Philadelpia (not sure about the VBM/EV difference in that split). As of this morning, 5% of the votes there have yet to be counted. Rough, back-of-the-envelope math indicates there might be roughly 36,000 votes left there. It does look a tough uphill climb.
According to Michael Pruser, there are about 12k left in Philadelphia & about 74.3k total left statewide. This process isn't very transparent & it's frustrating to all parties.
Where are you getting the 12K number? Scrolling through Pruser's feed and having a hard time finding that. He did echo your sentiment though about the lack of transparency.
Jeez, it seems twelve coats of paint can dry faster than significant progress being made in the Pennsylvania vote count!
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/pennsylvania-senate-results#senate-results
Any thoughts on Senator Bob Casey’s chances of closing his 29,309-vote deficit and emerging the victor?
Casey needs a miracle. The formula for the miracle: Win Allegheny & Philadelphia 90-10; Win Delaware, Chester, Montgomery & Bucks 75-25; Split the rest of the Commonwealth 50-50.
I give him a 2% chance.
Presuming the results don't change, here is hoping Josh Shapiro runs for the US Senate in 2030. And that's presuming he wins reelection in 2026.
Shapiro's approval rating is over 50% because he's competent. The GOP is probably going to nominate a lunatic outsider like they usually do. Also, the race will be run during a GOP Presidential mid-term without a US Senate race. Barring disaster, I like his chances.
Hopefully he’ll be VP and too busy for a Senate campaign. Or, wait, I didn’t mean for that to be a joke. VP isn’t a real job but still.
Let's wait and see. So far, ballots coming in have been splitting towards Casey.
Casey needs to win 70% of the outstanding estimated ballots. If Allegheny or Philadelphia come back below 85% Casey, it's over.
I’m aware of that. And based on McCormick’s actions, so does he: https://x.com/maevemcoyle/status/1856710692297929077?s=46&t=NhLQrgM30BfZmjI73-3rMg
Yesterday, Paleo pointed out that there were at least 40,000 votes left to count in Philadelphia, with the remainder of the then-92,000 remaining votes spread throughout the state. Casey has been winning 78% of the votes in Philadelpia (not sure about the VBM/EV difference in that split). As of this morning, 5% of the votes there have yet to be counted. Rough, back-of-the-envelope math indicates there might be roughly 36,000 votes left there. It does look a tough uphill climb.
According to Michael Pruser, there are about 12k left in Philadelphia & about 74.3k total left statewide. This process isn't very transparent & it's frustrating to all parties.
Where are you getting the 12K number? Scrolling through Pruser's feed and having a hard time finding that. He did echo your sentiment though about the lack of transparency.
Cell Q54 on the "VOTE LEFT & DROPPED" sheet.
Thank you. I'll keep an open mind that it's both still an estimation and a lack of transparency that we don't know for sure.