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Paleo's avatar

The national popular vote for president in 2024 will look eerily similar to the popular vote for U.S. House in 2022. The winner by state will be exactly the same — at least if you take the combined Republican vote in Alaska in 2022. And many of the details will be similar as well, like Republicans’ big gains in Florida and New York.

As a result, the 2024 presidential election results by state correlate more closely with the swings from the 2022 midterm elections for the U.S. House than with the result of the 2020 presidential election.

. . . .

But with hindsight, the 2022 midterm wasn’t an ordinary election. It was the first election after the pandemic and the upheaval that followed, and the lasting results suggest that many critical electoral shifts were already in motion two years ago.

As I noted before this election, the pattern suggests that Democrats lost many voters as a result of events in 2021 and 2022 — including rising prices, a crime surge, the debate over “woke” and resentment over school closures and pandemic-era restrictions.

https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/render?campaign_id=277&emc=edit_nc_20241113&free_trial=0&instance_id=139486&isViewInBrowser=true&nl=the-tilt&regi_id=77748371&segment_id=183043&sendId=183043&uri=nyt://newsletter/340a14cc-f250-58f8-914a-bf4da13d6575&user_id=adf014a083d008fed9902946a660dad8

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axlee's avatar

Yeah. Both 22 and 24 are two separate elections running together, a close fight in the swing states, a red wave in most safe blue and red states.

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Henrik's avatar

Certainly a depressing thought. Wonder how retrievable a lot of those voters are, then, or if they’ll simply never forgive their pandemic era anger

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ArcticStones's avatar

Among those who will neither forgive – nor hold Democrats in unforgiveness – are the more-than one million Americans who died of Covid. Imagine the electoral ramifications, and the widespread acceptance of mitigating measures, had those Americans been the victim of terrorism?

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

A pretty solid swath of evidence has shown NPIs had practically no effect on ultimate infections/death counts. We need to honestly confront data that challenges entrenched narratives if we want to progress both on a policy and corresponding political front.

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ArcticStones's avatar

NPI (New Product Introduction)... Or is this an abbreviation for what you mean? Not sure what you mean. Are you saying that Covid vaccines had no effect on infections/death rates?

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Toiler On the Sea's avatar

No NPI=non-pharmaceutical intervention. So school and park closures, mask requirements etc. Made sense very early on; by Fall 2020 it was clear at the minimum schools should have been open for in-person learning.

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Jonathan's avatar

I'm not convinced that you are correct

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Jonathan's avatar

when Trump's tariffs kick in; yup, they'll forgive quickly

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Andrew's avatar

Yeah, a lot of those people don’t care about trans people anyway.

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Jonathan's avatar

not following you?🤔

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Andrew's avatar

I agree with you. A lot of voters will suddenly realize they don’t know any trans people and will continue to not give a shit about them. Eggs!!!!!!

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Jonathan's avatar

Exactly; eyes on the ball; always ignore the fuckng Republicans (apologies for my language but democrats always care about what Republicans think for some ridiculous reason)

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Andrew's avatar

Fuckity fuck fuck fuck. One thing I’ve learned from Trump is voters really appreciate a candidate who just says it.

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Jonathan's avatar

but only him(that's the truly crazy part)

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Skaje's avatar

Lol at putting "the debate over woke" in a group with inflation, crime, and pandemic disruptions.

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