Ds hold the VA state legislature by defending a couple of Harris +22 seats in Loudoun Co. Margin in both districts looks like it'll be a touch higher than that, although Biden won these seats by 35 pts apiece.
Ds hold the VA state legislature by defending a couple of Harris +22 seats in Loudoun Co. Margin in both districts looks like it'll be a touch higher than that, although Biden won these seats by 35 pts apiece.
And despite our expected loss in SD-10, we outperformed the margin by 9 there (lost by 18 in a Trump +27 district). That's actually more impressive than the ~1.5 point outperformances in Loudoun.
Overall these are good numbers. VA has down-ballot lag that favors Republicans in state and local races. Outperforming Harris by an average of 3-4 is not bad. (If repeated verbatim in this fall's gubernatorial, we'd win by almost 10).
Considering Ralph Northam won the Governorship in 2017 by just over nine per cent, that's actually quite telling. The last Democrat in Virginia to win the Governorship by double digits: Gerald Baliles back in 1985.
Ds hold the VA state legislature by defending a couple of Harris +22 seats in Loudoun Co. Margin in both districts looks like it'll be a touch higher than that, although Biden won these seats by 35 pts apiece.
https://x.com/kkondik/status/1876801836159574360
And despite our expected loss in SD-10, we outperformed the margin by 9 there (lost by 18 in a Trump +27 district). That's actually more impressive than the ~1.5 point outperformances in Loudoun.
Overall these are good numbers. VA has down-ballot lag that favors Republicans in state and local races. Outperforming Harris by an average of 3-4 is not bad. (If repeated verbatim in this fall's gubernatorial, we'd win by almost 10).
Great analysis
Considering Ralph Northam won the Governorship in 2017 by just over nine per cent, that's actually quite telling. The last Democrat in Virginia to win the Governorship by double digits: Gerald Baliles back in 1985.
By election day I'm sure Trump will have killed the Republicans chances in many Virginia marginal districts