Edit posts in an obvious way, like with text in square brackets, rather than deleting them if people have replied to them, unless they are, for example, illegal or libelous. We've been through this before many times...
If this is accurate, Collins is going down. However, given the poor history of polling her, I'll have some real doubts until the election returns come in.
Yeah, bar mitzvahs and bat mitzvahs are hard to avoid if you have those in your family or know those well. Especially when boys and girls are making speeches.
Closer to where I live although I’m across the bay. That said, I’m a xennial Reform Jew and typically go to Congregation Emanu-El (the largest synagogue in San Francisco) and social events by the Oshman JCC in the Peninsula and South Bay.
Any bar mitzvahs and bay mitzvahs I’ve attended have been in Berkeley.
Glad you did! Its the largest synagogue I've been to and when I was younger ended up attending the Young Adults at Emanu-El Late Shabbat once every month. Rabbi Jonathan Singer was the one I recall meeting at one point back in 2019.
Out of all the synagogues, Emanu-El has probably the tightest security I've ever seen. Putting that aside, the architecture of the synagogue is incredible.
So last night the U.S. Senate unanimously passed a funding bill for the TSA without additional funds for ICE. What are the odds Mike Johnson stalls it or Trump vetoes it?
Yes, which means Dems WON. Plus, the hours long lines at airports like ATL and HOB/IAH during springtime highlighted that travelers blamed TRUMP, not Democrats, for the TSA agents not being paid.
No can do since he's running for Senate. He'll either lose that primary or win the general, because Kentucky isn't flipping statewide in a federal race just yet, I think.
Not really. They wanted ICE reforms (no mask, no picking people up at random). However, they've always offered to fund TSA while the partial shutdown continued. So in that sense it's a win. A complete victory would be restrictions on ICE.
The funds are there from the BBB and "potentially" from a second reconciliation bill, although count me highly skeptical they manage to thread that needle with their bare majority.
But I think with airport lines getting that long and the salience of Minneapolis fading from the public, this was as good as one could hope for.
MoCs were looking at being in regular TSA lines during their own spring breaks, and some of the airports struggling the most are in red states, which is why the GOP folded.
"For when lenity and cruelty play for a kingdom, the gentler gamester is the soonest winner." From Shakespeare's Henry V. Not sure about soonest, but the polls sure show people turning away from the current cruelty.
I think that's the point, though I'd have to go back to the play for the actual context. Leaders who are cruel will eventually show their cruelty to everyone. There are no favorites. Trump embodies that. The people will turn. Should they have turned earlier? Ofc. But a cruel will not stand forever.
He got a waiver to chair the committee for one more term this Congress (GOP has three-term term limits), so he was about to become a backbencher, probably in the minority
I was born and raised in the rural areas of this district in northwest Missouri. I don't have nice things to say about Sam Graves, except that he was a more traditional Republican who occasionally tried to bring funds to his district. Having spent a great deal of time around rural folk in this area, I can assure you Graves' replacement will be far worse.
"You might not agree with me and say I'm stuck in my ways and past my prime, but these people coming up behind me have no principles, utterly no principles at all, and will stop at nothing"- Senator Richard Russell to LBJ after passage of Voting Rights Act of 65 (allegedly)
Of course, that quote was definitely wrong, Sam Nunn and Max Cleland were the next 2 senators in that seat and I wouldn’t describe either of them in that way.
Hell, I would even say Saxby Chambliss had more principles compared to David Perdue. And Jon Ossoff is probably the best person that seat has ever elected.
Chambliss was more bipartisan and statesman-like than Perdue - he was in the Gang of 10, opposed Obama drone striking innocent civilians, and participated in other bipartisan legislation. Perdue was a hardline conservative that pretty much never did anything outside of Republican politics, and now he's in the Trump administration.
i believe the point of the quote was the old dixecrat guard versus the new republicans that basically held the same atrocious views on civil rights but also hated social programs for whites, a la gingrich trent lott etc
My exact thoughts. He was a conservative Republican but at heart an institutionalist. I worry when all of the Republicans who essentially respect the Constitution are replaced by Matt Gaetz clones. National gerrymander reform is badly needed to prevent the country from suffering permanent policy whiplash every 4 years and democratic backsliding.
It's needed, but I don't see it preventing voters from voting out the party in power when there's a little inflation or something. Germans have so far refused to give AfD a plurality, while Americans don't care if the main opposition party they elect is a bunch of corrupt, violent fascists.
But that supports my point; if Germany's Parliament was arranged akin to the House's gerrymandered seats, AfD would be well on its way to government control.
What doesn't support your point is that Trump got close to 50% of the vote nationwide, something no AfD candidate for Chancellor has ever come close to.
I remember back in 2000 when Graves won the seat against Democrat Steve Danner, son of long-time Democratic Representative Pat Danner. It was considerable a battleground that cycle. It certainly hasn't stayed that way in the 26 years since.
In 2008, I knocked doors for Kay Barnes (even though I lived in midtown KC, MO-05). Obama was a firestorm, and I thought it might at least be close..... oh well.
Buchanan county is worse now, but Clay and Platte could make this race interesting (like high single digits).
Bill Clinton won the district twice. Since I happened to have the 1986 Almanac of American Politics handy, I can confirm that even Walter Mondale only lost the district 61-39. Republican Tom Coleman, who represented the district from 1976-1992, is a sporadic guest on MSNBC now.
(Also, I have the 1976 almanac handy too, and McGovern lost the district 67-33, while Nixon won it 49-41).
Democrats in California…please unite behind the leading Democrat candidate for Governor. We don’t need to split the Democrat vote and help Republicans take the Governorship!!! This is how we continually screw our voters and our party.
In the last three polls (all high quality), looking at just the leading Democrats, Swalwell was 1st, 3rd and 2nd; Porter was 3rd, 1st, and 1st; while Steyer was 2nd, 2nd and 3rd. Average percent of three polls: Swalwell 12.67%; Porter 11%; and Steyer 11%.
In short, we have three candidates who are virtually tied and certainly so within the margin or error.
I am the opposite, as in unwilling to support Steyer or Porter (only in the primary, of course). Don't get me wrong, Swalwell's history as a prosecutor isn't really great. I really hope that difference doesn't bode poorly for the election.
I low-key hoped Bacerra would be doing better at this point. Alas...
A substantial upgrade, yes. Probably in the same vein as current Progressive Caucus members like Jayapal or Casar. DeGette is pretty corporate and establishment, and recently had a rough go-around with a constituent regarding the forbidden issue.
The way DeGette reacted in the confrontation should be enough to discredit her. I'm not pushing my views on anyone by saying why people may not like her.
I agree with you for the most part, and I do think the confrontation points DeGette in an unnecessary bad light, but Capuano was really only a social progressive and was a self-described "fiscal conservative", and didn't represent his district adequately compared to Pressley (it became majority-minority). Also, he literally called himself a "Washington insider" in attempt to make him sound like the Kennedys at one point. Not a good look to voters that want someone that isn't a career politician.
Has Julius edited his reply? I don’t see him trying to generalize, speak for others, or criticize dissent.
“Recently had a rough go-around with a constituent regarding the forbidden issue”—that’s his perspective. He’s allowed to disagree with DeGette’s stance, just as you’re allowed to disagree with Kiros’s stance.
To be fair, just because it /can/ happen doesn't mean it /does/ happen to every politician who's been in office long enough. I am not reflexively pro-Bernie, but I think his ability to connect with younger voters even as an octogenarian indicates he does not have the same problem that is plaguing DeGette this cycle.
I thought Bernie shouldn’t have run in 2024 and I don’t think he should run again. Anyone who has been in Washington since the Clinton impeachment should hang it up.
I’m not reflexively anti-experience. Is there anything that she has a bad position on? Does she have bad constituent services? Or is it just someone challenging a rep who has gotten too comfortable and is vulnerable to an energetic challenger (nothing wrong with that either, just curious).
Hot take, but limiting the say voters have as to who is on their primary ballot is bad
Also DeGette hasn't really done anything wrong, and I'm very tired of this drive to primary every person who has been in congress for a while. DeGette isn't even 70.
Willett is the only conservative/republican on City Council in KC. He votes no on everything. I thought he was already running for State Senate District 34, but I suppose he could drop out to run for congress.
I saw someone on Bluesky also suggest that Rep. Cory Mills also be expelled with Sheila, owing to his own litany of scandals and ethics violations. If he is found guilty, I think he should -- that way, we could also say we're willing to use Congressional tools in a bipartisan fashion against those who violate them (not that the GOP particularly cares.)
It would probably be unprecedented for two members to be expelled at once. Not sure, though - I know George Santos, Jim Traficant and Mike Myers are the only ones in recent history, dating back to Myers in 1980.
Those three are literally the only ones to be expelled since the the Civil War (in the past people had the decency to resign before they were expelled). There was something like 7 expelled together in 1861 for supporting the Confederacy (the rest of the southern members had already resigned).
First polling I've seen for CT 1st Congressional District Primary against Incumbent John Larson
This is Larson Internal poll. Poll was fielded in late January by GQR. Only released now. 400 Likely Dem Primary Voters. Crosstabs not included
John Larson (Inc.) - 49%
Luke Bronin - 26%
Jillian Gilchrest - 9%
Undecided 15%
Though Larson has a lead, he is below a majority in his internal. Also no one has been up on the airwaves yet, and former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin had more than $1 million cash-on-hand so that could change it up the race. Debates haven't happened yet, the primary will be in August.
One competitor against him, former Hartford Board of Ed Member Ruth Fortune was not included in this polling.
Candidates are likely focused on the May Convention, where delegates formally endorse a candidate. So candidates have been running to the 27 towns in the district's Democratic Town Committees. That candidate will receive top billing on the ballot in the August primary. Candidates need 15% of delegates to make the ballot, and to avoid CT's fairly difficult signature-gathering process. This can make the field smaller.
I agree! As it stands Larson wins easily in a split field. The convention might make the field smaller. Fortune is most likely to have trouble making the ballot. Gilchrest tho is the wild factor, she said she's going all the way, despite low fundraising. She's from one of the larger towns in the district and will take a chunk of the vote if she's on the ballot. If she's not on the ballot and it becomes a 1v1 than I expect a closer race.
Ohh shit, I thought it was Caroline Wren of Politico. That's Adam not Caroline.
You didn't have to therefore delete the post...
It would be misinformation.
Edit posts in an obvious way, like with text in square brackets, rather than deleting them if people have replied to them, unless they are, for example, illegal or libelous. We've been through this before many times...
Really? Wow.
Trump only endorses people he thinks are gonna win.
Paxton’s crooked scumbag credentials were just too overwhelming for Trump to resist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-7IHOXkiV8
Hot damn
Need to keep on going down, down, down.
If this is accurate, Collins is going down. However, given the poor history of polling her, I'll have some real doubts until the election returns come in.
Platner needs to keep widening his lead in the polls vs. Collins if he is the general election nominee.
The closer he is to Collins in the race, the more skeptical I am of him unseating her or if he is able to do it anymore than <1% to 2% points.
Republicans in disarray again.
Love this for them. Every time they stall or try something stupid, the other house doesn't want to play ball.
Who is Todd Starnes?
A hack from Newsmax.
Thanks. So why is anything he says important?
And formerly of Fox "News", especially their radio division.
In other words, not some of any real significance.
Huge political gift for Dems. This is now Mike Johnson's shutdown.
Trump plays Texas Hold ’em? More like Tex-Mex TACO!
Rare Newsom W
You can dislike Newsome. That is a totally reasonable position. But he has had some real Ws lately. (SB79, for example).
going to the jersey city one with my brother and girlfriend
Going to one of the ones in NCWV with my mom
Where?
Haven't decided on going to the big one in Morgantown or one of the smaller ones in Fairmont, Clarksburg, etc. Probably Morgantown
I've been to almost all of these but unfortunately figure to miss this one. A cousin is having his bar mitzvah tomorrow, with a reception following.
Yeah, bar mitzvahs and bat mitzvahs are hard to avoid if you have those in your family or know those well. Especially when boys and girls are making speeches.
I didn't want to avoid it and flew to San Francisco specifically in order to be there! Otherwise, I would go to the No Kings march in New York.
Closer to where I live although I’m across the bay. That said, I’m a xennial Reform Jew and typically go to Congregation Emanu-El (the largest synagogue in San Francisco) and social events by the Oshman JCC in the Peninsula and South Bay.
Any bar mitzvahs and bay mitzvahs I’ve attended have been in Berkeley.
I went to Emanu-El for morning services on the 1st day of Rosh Hashanah last year. Beautiful synagogue, nice service.
Glad you did! Its the largest synagogue I've been to and when I was younger ended up attending the Young Adults at Emanu-El Late Shabbat once every month. Rabbi Jonathan Singer was the one I recall meeting at one point back in 2019.
Out of all the synagogues, Emanu-El has probably the tightest security I've ever seen. Putting that aside, the architecture of the synagogue is incredible.
So last night the U.S. Senate unanimously passed a funding bill for the TSA without additional funds for ICE. What are the odds Mike Johnson stalls it or Trump vetoes it?
Yes, which means Dems WON. Plus, the hours long lines at airports like ATL and HOB/IAH during springtime highlighted that travelers blamed TRUMP, not Democrats, for the TSA agents not being paid.
Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) even went as far as to make up a fake encounter where an airport worker reportedly told him it was the fault of the Democrats.
I would love to see this blue tsunami wash that POS out too.
No can do since he's running for Senate. He'll either lose that primary or win the general, because Kentucky isn't flipping statewide in a federal race just yet, I think.
Not really. They wanted ICE reforms (no mask, no picking people up at random). However, they've always offered to fund TSA while the partial shutdown continued. So in that sense it's a win. A complete victory would be restrictions on ICE.
The funds are there from the BBB and "potentially" from a second reconciliation bill, although count me highly skeptical they manage to thread that needle with their bare majority.
But I think with airport lines getting that long and the salience of Minneapolis fading from the public, this was as good as one could hope for.
I heard it first here Thank you!
MoCs were looking at being in regular TSA lines during their own spring breaks, and some of the airports struggling the most are in red states, which is why the GOP folded.
"For when lenity and cruelty play for a kingdom, the gentler gamester is the soonest winner." From Shakespeare's Henry V. Not sure about soonest, but the polls sure show people turning away from the current cruelty.
I think that's the point, though I'd have to go back to the play for the actual context. Leaders who are cruel will eventually show their cruelty to everyone. There are no favorites. Trump embodies that. The people will turn. Should they have turned earlier? Ofc. But a cruel will not stand forever.
Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.), 62, chair of the House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee, is retiring from Congress after 23 years, POLITICO reports.
He got a waiver to chair the committee for one more term this Congress (GOP has three-term term limits), so he was about to become a backbencher, probably in the minority
26 years, not 23
I was born and raised in the rural areas of this district in northwest Missouri. I don't have nice things to say about Sam Graves, except that he was a more traditional Republican who occasionally tried to bring funds to his district. Having spent a great deal of time around rural folk in this area, I can assure you Graves' replacement will be far worse.
"You might not agree with me and say I'm stuck in my ways and past my prime, but these people coming up behind me have no principles, utterly no principles at all, and will stop at nothing"- Senator Richard Russell to LBJ after passage of Voting Rights Act of 65 (allegedly)
Of course, that quote was definitely wrong, Sam Nunn and Max Cleland were the next 2 senators in that seat and I wouldn’t describe either of them in that way.
I remember Nunn. I looked him up out of curiosity. He's still alive at 87.
And David Gambrell, who was appointed to the seat after Russell died, only recently died himself.
Hell, I would even say Saxby Chambliss had more principles compared to David Perdue. And Jon Ossoff is probably the best person that seat has ever elected.
How so on Chambliss and Perdue?
Chambliss was more bipartisan and statesman-like than Perdue - he was in the Gang of 10, opposed Obama drone striking innocent civilians, and participated in other bipartisan legislation. Perdue was a hardline conservative that pretty much never did anything outside of Republican politics, and now he's in the Trump administration.
i believe the point of the quote was the old dixecrat guard versus the new republicans that basically held the same atrocious views on civil rights but also hated social programs for whites, a la gingrich trent lott etc
My exact thoughts. He was a conservative Republican but at heart an institutionalist. I worry when all of the Republicans who essentially respect the Constitution are replaced by Matt Gaetz clones. National gerrymander reform is badly needed to prevent the country from suffering permanent policy whiplash every 4 years and democratic backsliding.
It's needed, but I don't see it preventing voters from voting out the party in power when there's a little inflation or something. Germans have so far refused to give AfD a plurality, while Americans don't care if the main opposition party they elect is a bunch of corrupt, violent fascists.
But that supports my point; if Germany's Parliament was arranged akin to the House's gerrymandered seats, AfD would be well on its way to government control.
What doesn't support your point is that Trump got close to 50% of the vote nationwide, something no AfD candidate for Chancellor has ever come close to.
We don't have a multiparty Parliamentary system. If AfD and the CDU were combined they'd get an easy majority.
I remember back in 2000 when Graves won the seat against Democrat Steve Danner, son of long-time Democratic Representative Pat Danner. It was considerable a battleground that cycle. It certainly hasn't stayed that way in the 26 years since.
In 2008, I knocked doors for Kay Barnes (even though I lived in midtown KC, MO-05). Obama was a firestorm, and I thought it might at least be close..... oh well.
Buchanan county is worse now, but Clay and Platte could make this race interesting (like high single digits).
Bill Clinton won the district twice. Since I happened to have the 1986 Almanac of American Politics handy, I can confirm that even Walter Mondale only lost the district 61-39. Republican Tom Coleman, who represented the district from 1976-1992, is a sporadic guest on MSNBC now.
(Also, I have the 1976 almanac handy too, and McGovern lost the district 67-33, while Nixon won it 49-41).
Danner served in Congress for 8 years - wouldn't exactly call her longtime
Democrats in California…please unite behind the leading Democrat candidate for Governor. We don’t need to split the Democrat vote and help Republicans take the Governorship!!! This is how we continually screw our voters and our party.
Well said. I would add that I expect very few Democrats to vote before late May.
BTW, Paul Mitchell's simulator currently only gives the chance of an R v. R top two as 19.6%. I think that will be way down by late May.
I think a lot of people are waiting to do that. It isn't even clear who the two leading Democrats are.
Porter and Swalwell. Anyone else is just noise.
I thought Swalwell and Porter were pretty well ahead of most of the pack in most of the polling no?
In the last three polls (all high quality), looking at just the leading Democrats, Swalwell was 1st, 3rd and 2nd; Porter was 3rd, 1st, and 1st; while Steyer was 2nd, 2nd and 3rd. Average percent of three polls: Swalwell 12.67%; Porter 11%; and Steyer 11%.
In short, we have three candidates who are virtually tied and certainly so within the margin or error.
there are three leading Dems: Porter, Steyer, and Swalwell. I am undecided as between the 1st two.
Same here. I wish we could use ranked choice.
I am the opposite, as in unwilling to support Steyer or Porter (only in the primary, of course). Don't get me wrong, Swalwell's history as a prosecutor isn't really great. I really hope that difference doesn't bode poorly for the election.
I low-key hoped Bacerra would be doing better at this point. Alas...
https://punchbowl.news/article/campaigns/degette-risk/
CO-1: 30-year Rep. Diana DeGette (D) has a real chance of being kicked off of the ballot tonight at the caucus.
I hope this happens, for no other reason than to continue the process of waking the Democratic Party up.
Is this good or bad?
Good, if you're like bpfish and I
If this happens, is Melat Kiros any good?
A substantial upgrade, yes. Probably in the same vein as current Progressive Caucus members like Jayapal or Casar. DeGette is pretty corporate and establishment, and recently had a rough go-around with a constituent regarding the forbidden issue.
Disagree there.
The way DeGette reacted in the confrontation should be enough to discredit her. I'm not pushing my views on anyone by saying why people may not like her.
I agree with you for the most part, and I do think the confrontation points DeGette in an unnecessary bad light, but Capuano was really only a social progressive and was a self-described "fiscal conservative", and didn't represent his district adequately compared to Pressley (it became majority-minority). Also, he literally called himself a "Washington insider" in attempt to make him sound like the Kennedys at one point. Not a good look to voters that want someone that isn't a career politician.
Has Julius edited his reply? I don’t see him trying to generalize, speak for others, or criticize dissent.
“Recently had a rough go-around with a constituent regarding the forbidden issue”—that’s his perspective. He’s allowed to disagree with DeGette’s stance, just as you’re allowed to disagree with Kiros’s stance.
Just curious, what makes DeGette bad? She’s a progressive too and she isn’t that old, she’s still in her 60s.
Even though she's not as old as some of the other Reps. being targeted, she's been in office since 1997, which can calcify your approach to politics.
To be fair, just because it /can/ happen doesn't mean it /does/ happen to every politician who's been in office long enough. I am not reflexively pro-Bernie, but I think his ability to connect with younger voters even as an octogenarian indicates he does not have the same problem that is plaguing DeGette this cycle.
I thought Bernie shouldn’t have run in 2024 and I don’t think he should run again. Anyone who has been in Washington since the Clinton impeachment should hang it up.
Bernie Sanders sets the tone of the national political debate unlike these octogenarians and he absolutely should retire after this term.
What exact votes has she taken that people have an issue with?
I’m not reflexively anti-experience. Is there anything that she has a bad position on? Does she have bad constituent services? Or is it just someone challenging a rep who has gotten too comfortable and is vulnerable to an energetic challenger (nothing wrong with that either, just curious).
I won't pretend to know specifically, it very well could just be the latter.
Hot take, but limiting the say voters have as to who is on their primary ballot is bad
Also DeGette hasn't really done anything wrong, and I'm very tired of this drive to primary every person who has been in congress for a while. DeGette isn't even 70.
Agree with your hot take but I don't think DeGette is living up to the standards we should be setting for members, regardless of her age
https://fox4kc.com/news/kansas-city-councilman-addresses-rumors-regarding-potential-run-for-congress/
MO-6: Kansas City councilman Nate Willett and businessman Jim Ingram are the first candidates looking to succeed Rep. Sam Graves.
Willett is the only conservative/republican on City Council in KC. He votes no on everything. I thought he was already running for State Senate District 34, but I suppose he could drop out to run for congress.
Who else north of Kansas City could run?
Maybe Cindy O'Laughlin the senate majority leader?
I see that Raffensberger is gunning for Coward of the Year by launching an insidious and transphobic attack ad to try and save his faltering campaign.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/27/sheila-cherfilus-mccormick-guilty-ethics-00848019
FL-20: Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick is guilty of House Ethics violations. Love this for her. Please let Elijah Manley take her seat.
I saw someone on Bluesky also suggest that Rep. Cory Mills also be expelled with Sheila, owing to his own litany of scandals and ethics violations. If he is found guilty, I think he should -- that way, we could also say we're willing to use Congressional tools in a bipartisan fashion against those who violate them (not that the GOP particularly cares.)
It would probably be unprecedented for two members to be expelled at once. Not sure, though - I know George Santos, Jim Traficant and Mike Myers are the only ones in recent history, dating back to Myers in 1980.
Those three are literally the only ones to be expelled since the the Civil War (in the past people had the decency to resign before they were expelled). There was something like 7 expelled together in 1861 for supporting the Confederacy (the rest of the southern members had already resigned).
Can a bill be proposed expelling both of them together? In other words, both or neither.
First polling I've seen for CT 1st Congressional District Primary against Incumbent John Larson
This is Larson Internal poll. Poll was fielded in late January by GQR. Only released now. 400 Likely Dem Primary Voters. Crosstabs not included
John Larson (Inc.) - 49%
Luke Bronin - 26%
Jillian Gilchrest - 9%
Undecided 15%
Though Larson has a lead, he is below a majority in his internal. Also no one has been up on the airwaves yet, and former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin had more than $1 million cash-on-hand so that could change it up the race. Debates haven't happened yet, the primary will be in August.
One competitor against him, former Hartford Board of Ed Member Ruth Fortune was not included in this polling.
Candidates are likely focused on the May Convention, where delegates formally endorse a candidate. So candidates have been running to the 27 towns in the district's Democratic Town Committees. That candidate will receive top billing on the ballot in the August primary. Candidates need 15% of delegates to make the ballot, and to avoid CT's fairly difficult signature-gathering process. This can make the field smaller.
https://www.wtnh.com/news/elections/rep-john-larson-projects-confidence-with-new-poll/
Agreed - if any of his challengers wanted a chance, two of them should drop out. Probably Fortune and Gilchrest, leaving Bronin as the sole candidate.
I don't think they will – Larson is a liberal, Bronin is a moderate while Gilchrest is M4A and Abolish ICE progressive.
There isn't a consensus.
I agree! As it stands Larson wins easily in a split field. The convention might make the field smaller. Fortune is most likely to have trouble making the ballot. Gilchrest tho is the wild factor, she said she's going all the way, despite low fundraising. She's from one of the larger towns in the district and will take a chunk of the vote if she's on the ballot. If she's not on the ballot and it becomes a 1v1 than I expect a closer race.