It strikes me as reductive in assuming that "anger about inflation" was the singular motivation for the Trump surge voters. If our only takeaway from November 5 is that Democrats caught a tough break that inflation didn't go down quickly enough, we can probably look forward to a lot more November 5ths.
It strikes me as reductive in assuming that "anger about inflation" was the singular motivation for the Trump surge voters. If our only takeaway from November 5 is that Democrats caught a tough break that inflation didn't go down quickly enough, we can probably look forward to a lot more November 5ths.
I think Dems should do a lot of things differently, but if we have normal inflation from 2021 to 2024 and everything else is the same (including real income growth, as wages would be proportionately lower) I think Harris wins.
If you want to go there, you'll have to explain why a lot of those same voters (Latinos in particular) had no problem voting for both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Not the same electorates. 2024 voters have been subjected to 8 years of Trump and Trump's supporters misogyny and racism. It's been normalized in a way it hadn't been before, at least among the voting population.
1. The electorates of 2012, 2016, and 2024 are exactly the same?
2. There is no effect from 9 years of Trumpism on the tone of our politics?
3. There were a lot of low-information voters who voted this time who didn't vote in other elections and may have motivations that differed from earlier electorates?
his previous post as interpreted by me(perhaps I misunderstood); is that racism and misogyny is the reason for Trump winning; I contend pocketbook issues always are the most important and that folks who were racist or misogynist voted for Trump in all 3 elections (including his landslide loss)didn't change the outcome in 2024 one bit
The entire thread is about how there was a disconnect between the facts about the economy (including the decline in inflation) and the vibes voters, especially low-propensity voters, felt about it. Racism and misogyny exist, and some amount of voters (doesn't have to be a lot, since margins were small) probably felt that a white man who cosplays as wealthy is more likely to manage the economy to their liking. What I was focusing on was not so much the hard-core Trump voters who voted for him all 3 times, but the voters who came out just to vote for him, this time, especially those who left the rest of the ballot blank.
Yep I think it amounts to cope. Countries with far worse inflation have managed to beat away the far right the past two years, and they had candidates without Trump's baggage.
It wasnt just inflation. Inflation was just the most visible factor.
BIden was elected on a promise to return things to normal. But they didnt. Prices were still up. The Afghanistan withdrawal was chaos. New wars started that threatened to embroil the US. Trump was still around. Crime spiked (including notably stuff like car thefts that affect normal people in the suburbs).
I would put it another way - if Trump had won in 2020, and each side had the exact same level of everything else (money, GOTV, ads, non-paid messaging, etc), we would be talking about something approaching an 2008 level blowout where Biden was easily elected to a second term with something like 54 senate seats and a safe House majority.
Because the chaos was basically built into the post-COVID recovery and whoever was in charge.
Sure we need to be aware that the GOP is now free of the fetters of being the establishment and thats a major danger for Dems as the now establishment party going forward. But thats not why we lost in 2024.
Good points. This is the second time in the last half century that Democrats had really bad timing for their narrow win....with 1976 being the other time. And of course, if they'd won in 1988 and especially 2004, they'd really have had a bloodbath for the next few cycles.
It strikes me as reductive in assuming that "anger about inflation" was the singular motivation for the Trump surge voters. If our only takeaway from November 5 is that Democrats caught a tough break that inflation didn't go down quickly enough, we can probably look forward to a lot more November 5ths.
I think Dems should do a lot of things differently, but if we have normal inflation from 2021 to 2024 and everything else is the same (including real income growth, as wages would be proportionately lower) I think Harris wins.
If we have normal inflation Biden probably doesnt leave the race if inflation is 2-3% in the post COVID period.
So what else were the motivations of the trump voters and those that stayed home?
Hmm...what was different about Harris than every other major party presidential nominee we've ever had? Just can't put my finger on it.
If you want to go there, you'll have to explain why a lot of those same voters (Latinos in particular) had no problem voting for both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Not the same electorates. 2024 voters have been subjected to 8 years of Trump and Trump's supporters misogyny and racism. It's been normalized in a way it hadn't been before, at least among the voting population.
Nonsense
What part is "nonsense"?
1. The electorates of 2012, 2016, and 2024 are exactly the same?
2. There is no effect from 9 years of Trumpism on the tone of our politics?
3. There were a lot of low-information voters who voted this time who didn't vote in other elections and may have motivations that differed from earlier electorates?
simple; your entire post
Why do you think he's wrong?
his previous post as interpreted by me(perhaps I misunderstood); is that racism and misogyny is the reason for Trump winning; I contend pocketbook issues always are the most important and that folks who were racist or misogynist voted for Trump in all 3 elections (including his landslide loss)didn't change the outcome in 2024 one bit
The entire thread is about how there was a disconnect between the facts about the economy (including the decline in inflation) and the vibes voters, especially low-propensity voters, felt about it. Racism and misogyny exist, and some amount of voters (doesn't have to be a lot, since margins were small) probably felt that a white man who cosplays as wealthy is more likely to manage the economy to their liking. What I was focusing on was not so much the hard-core Trump voters who voted for him all 3 times, but the voters who came out just to vote for him, this time, especially those who left the rest of the ballot blank.
Yep I think it amounts to cope. Countries with far worse inflation have managed to beat away the far right the past two years, and they had candidates without Trump's baggage.
It wasnt just inflation. Inflation was just the most visible factor.
BIden was elected on a promise to return things to normal. But they didnt. Prices were still up. The Afghanistan withdrawal was chaos. New wars started that threatened to embroil the US. Trump was still around. Crime spiked (including notably stuff like car thefts that affect normal people in the suburbs).
I would put it another way - if Trump had won in 2020, and each side had the exact same level of everything else (money, GOTV, ads, non-paid messaging, etc), we would be talking about something approaching an 2008 level blowout where Biden was easily elected to a second term with something like 54 senate seats and a safe House majority.
Because the chaos was basically built into the post-COVID recovery and whoever was in charge.
Sure we need to be aware that the GOP is now free of the fetters of being the establishment and thats a major danger for Dems as the now establishment party going forward. But thats not why we lost in 2024.
Good points. This is the second time in the last half century that Democrats had really bad timing for their narrow win....with 1976 being the other time. And of course, if they'd won in 1988 and especially 2004, they'd really have had a bloodbath for the next few cycles.