Places like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia only shifted a couple points to the right from 2020, I think you can easily argue that the campaign and GOTV operations are what stopped us from seeing the massive swings there we saw in places like Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Florida, and Texas.
Places like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia only shifted a couple points to the right from 2020, I think you can easily argue that the campaign and GOTV operations are what stopped us from seeing the massive swings there we saw in places like Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Florida, and Texas.
Simon Rosenberg and a few other people have argued that the 2022 Midterms were actually two elections. I seem to recall that nationally/overall it was at least an R+3 election. Republicans improved their turnout in safely-Red and very-Blue states (i.e. a non-consequential Red Wave), while the Democrats had high turnout in competitive states and the vast majority of the districts that really mattered – i.e. no Red Wave whatsoever.
This seems to echo the points that you and NewEnglander are making about this 2024 Presidential Election.
FYI the election night count vastly overstated the degree of Illinois' shift. It was indeed a stunner when Harris was only ahead by 4 points in Illinois that Wednesday morning after the election and will regrettably remain a part of the storyline, but that margin has quietly increased to more than 10 points for Harris in the two weeks since. It's still a big shift the wrong direction but nothing like what it seemed.
Places like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia only shifted a couple points to the right from 2020, I think you can easily argue that the campaign and GOTV operations are what stopped us from seeing the massive swings there we saw in places like Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Florida, and Texas.
Simon Rosenberg and a few other people have argued that the 2022 Midterms were actually two elections. I seem to recall that nationally/overall it was at least an R+3 election. Republicans improved their turnout in safely-Red and very-Blue states (i.e. a non-consequential Red Wave), while the Democrats had high turnout in competitive states and the vast majority of the districts that really mattered – i.e. no Red Wave whatsoever.
This seems to echo the points that you and NewEnglander are making about this 2024 Presidential Election.
FYI the election night count vastly overstated the degree of Illinois' shift. It was indeed a stunner when Harris was only ahead by 4 points in Illinois that Wednesday morning after the election and will regrettably remain a part of the storyline, but that margin has quietly increased to more than 10 points for Harris in the two weeks since. It's still a big shift the wrong direction but nothing like what it seemed.