Following my analysis of the Democrats legislative future in yesterdays digest, I thought I would note what i think the Democrats strategy should be going forward.
In my opinion, we should take notes from Howard Dean's fifty-state strategy, as people all across the political system become increasingly disenfranchised with this Trump administration, and basically nothing doing well, we are set up for winning the house back for sure and it makes me think that we should invest largely into potential infrastructure in potential democratic states in ~50 years or 50 years ago, sort of something similar to the tea party movement but have candidates that suit the district they're running in whilst also having them being connected to crucial ideology of the democratic party. We can then move onto having progressives in deep blue seats, because then every caucus benefit of having democrats in congress whilst benefiting the main democrats agenda, representing every ideology in the broad tent party we are.
Yes! We need a 50-State, 3144-County Strategy! And yes to investing in party infrastructure everywhere – and yes to running candidates that suit the district. Let me add that in some cases, that means supporting Independents.
if fdr could cobble together the new deal coalition out of what at the time was party reduced to winning in northern big cities and the solid south because it was effectively limited to northern catholics, labor unions, and southern segregationists, we can certainly hew closer to crucial ideology while expanding our tent to be more inclusive than the new deal coalition
90 years ago, and at the depth of the Great Depression, yes he did. How wide pur coalition is (aka the size or possibility of majority) will be inversely proportionate to the ideological hegemony of the coalition. Where's the line/balance?
But look at Spanberger & Sherrill. Two "centrist/mainstream" Dems, but laser focused on affordability & getting things done while still talking frankly and directly abot Trump corruption and ICE murdering people in the street.
It is possible to be mainstream without being mushy GOP-lite and a corporate kiss-@$$. THOSE are the Dems that need to go.
Yes, I am thrilled at the rise of the Bernie-Warren-Jaypapal-AOC-Mamdani-DSA wing of the party. They are larger and more influential than at any time in my voting lifetime (1985).
But the shift in the middle is just as exciting, and may be more consequential. The Klobuchar-Spanberger-Sherrill chunk of the party. Willing to be unabashedly pro working class, government solutions, AND confrontational on immigration & corruption. That will play well almost everywhere.
If we do it right, the Manchin-Sinema-Lieberman-Golden GOP light, corporate Dem wing should become virtually extinct in 2 cycles.
Klobuchar, Spanberger and Sherrill represent Minnesota., Virginia, and New Jersey: solidly blue states. Not at all remotely comparable to Ohio, Iowa or Alaska (places we desperately need to win in 2026). And that says nothing of Louisiana, West Virginia, or Idaho.
I’m giving you an upvote, with reservations. As frustrating as I found Congressman Jared Golden and Senator Joe Manchin, I regret that they’re retiring/retired.
Manchin is the only Democrat who could possibly win in West Virginia – and I think it most unfortunate that he is now replaced by a Republican. I would far rather have a Democratic majority with Manchin caucusing with us than have the Senate majority out of reach because of our purity tests!
Likewise Jared Golden! His very red Maine district, ME-02, now runs a very real risk of being represented by Paul LePage, the ingrate who has proudly said "I was Trump before Trump."
Love this! A strategy that only ever focuses on swing states neglects the states that could become swing states in the future. Those states need infrastructure build up to become competitive.
The only caution I’ll give is we still need to be wary of grifters that run against high profile R’s like those who ran against McConnell and MTG, sucked up a ton of money, built no infrastructure, and lost in a blowout.
"[Blake] Fiechter never filed any fundraising reports during his short-lived bid," while Travis Holdman has more than $430,000 in his campaign account.
Trump is sitting on a campaign chest of more than half a billion dollars. How telling that he wouldn’t even support Fiecther with his spare change!
When Trump’s eagerness to hold onto power collides with his grift, he has quite the dilemma.
One quick note about the Maine special election: One reason why the Republican candidate got as close as she did may have been that she had a French last name while the Democratic candidate did not. Lewiston has a large Franco-American population, and these things really can make a difference.
I remember that in the early 2010s, there was a special election in Massachusetts, for a district south of Boston, an area with a lot of people of Irish descent. The Republican candidate had an Irish name - Patrick O'Connor - while the Democratic candidate did not. The district had voted for Obama, but the Republican won the special election, and I maintain to this day that he won because he had an Irish name while the Democrat did not.
Superb reporting on this. The Fiechter story is actually a pretty useful case study in the limits of endorsement power without logistical follow-throgh. Trump's political capital works best when opponents fear it will be exercised, but the moment a challenger discovers the endorsement comes with no money or staff, the threat deflates fast. I've seen similar dynamics in primary fights at the state levle, where the outside endorser has more bark than budgetary bite.
What's the the likelihood that the Democratic primary in TX ultimately has higher turnout than the Republicans? That sounds like it would be a huge deal.
I don't think flop is the right word. But tepidly positive with his base at best. The immediate polling showed modest upticks with Republican voters' perception compared to before the speech. Absolutely did nothing to win back moderates or independents to his cause though.
Also didn’t watch but concerned that Dems are being poor sports about the USA Hockey team. I truly want to believe that most of them are too young/apolitical to really internalize the state of affairs.
Some people out there really just don’t follow the ins and outs of politics on a daily basis! (no one on this board of course)
We are probably going to have to work something out in Montana, unless Bodnar has some interesting proosals that appeal to a wide variety of voters. There aren't enough anti-Daines voters where we can afford to split the anti-Daines constitutency, to even make the race competitive.
The Virginia primary deadlines have changed to 8/4 for this election cycle only! The Downballot's election calendar will need this update.
House candidate filing deadlines are now 5/26 for party candidates and 8/4 for independents. Candidates for all other offices must file by 4/2 for party candidate and 6/16 for independents. The VA DOE already updated their site.
The Indiana Republican state senators who opposed redistricting wanted not to rock the boat by giving the tepid state Democratic party something to rally around.
Following my analysis of the Democrats legislative future in yesterdays digest, I thought I would note what i think the Democrats strategy should be going forward.
In my opinion, we should take notes from Howard Dean's fifty-state strategy, as people all across the political system become increasingly disenfranchised with this Trump administration, and basically nothing doing well, we are set up for winning the house back for sure and it makes me think that we should invest largely into potential infrastructure in potential democratic states in ~50 years or 50 years ago, sort of something similar to the tea party movement but have candidates that suit the district they're running in whilst also having them being connected to crucial ideology of the democratic party. We can then move onto having progressives in deep blue seats, because then every caucus benefit of having democrats in congress whilst benefiting the main democrats agenda, representing every ideology in the broad tent party we are.
Would love to know your thoughts.
Yes! We need a 50-State, 3144-County Strategy! And yes to investing in party infrastructure everywhere – and yes to running candidates that suit the district. Let me add that in some cases, that means supporting Independents.
We need to do that all year long, not only when there is an election. We need to continuously support dems in red states for this to happen.
"Suit the districts they're running in" and "connected to crucial ideology" are often mutually exclusive in much of the country.
if fdr could cobble together the new deal coalition out of what at the time was party reduced to winning in northern big cities and the solid south because it was effectively limited to northern catholics, labor unions, and southern segregationists, we can certainly hew closer to crucial ideology while expanding our tent to be more inclusive than the new deal coalition
90 years ago, and at the depth of the Great Depression, yes he did. How wide pur coalition is (aka the size or possibility of majority) will be inversely proportionate to the ideological hegemony of the coalition. Where's the line/balance?
True.
But look at Spanberger & Sherrill. Two "centrist/mainstream" Dems, but laser focused on affordability & getting things done while still talking frankly and directly abot Trump corruption and ICE murdering people in the street.
It is possible to be mainstream without being mushy GOP-lite and a corporate kiss-@$$. THOSE are the Dems that need to go.
Yes, I am thrilled at the rise of the Bernie-Warren-Jaypapal-AOC-Mamdani-DSA wing of the party. They are larger and more influential than at any time in my voting lifetime (1985).
But the shift in the middle is just as exciting, and may be more consequential. The Klobuchar-Spanberger-Sherrill chunk of the party. Willing to be unabashedly pro working class, government solutions, AND confrontational on immigration & corruption. That will play well almost everywhere.
If we do it right, the Manchin-Sinema-Lieberman-Golden GOP light, corporate Dem wing should become virtually extinct in 2 cycles.
Klobuchar, Spanberger and Sherrill represent Minnesota., Virginia, and New Jersey: solidly blue states. Not at all remotely comparable to Ohio, Iowa or Alaska (places we desperately need to win in 2026). And that says nothing of Louisiana, West Virginia, or Idaho.
I’m giving you an upvote, with reservations. As frustrating as I found Congressman Jared Golden and Senator Joe Manchin, I regret that they’re retiring/retired.
Manchin is the only Democrat who could possibly win in West Virginia – and I think it most unfortunate that he is now replaced by a Republican. I would far rather have a Democratic majority with Manchin caucusing with us than have the Senate majority out of reach because of our purity tests!
Likewise Jared Golden! His very red Maine district, ME-02, now runs a very real risk of being represented by Paul LePage, the ingrate who has proudly said "I was Trump before Trump."
Paul Baldacci is polling to neck with neck with LePage.
Love this! A strategy that only ever focuses on swing states neglects the states that could become swing states in the future. Those states need infrastructure build up to become competitive.
The only caution I’ll give is we still need to be wary of grifters that run against high profile R’s like those who ran against McConnell and MTG, sucked up a ton of money, built no infrastructure, and lost in a blowout.
"[Blake] Fiechter never filed any fundraising reports during his short-lived bid," while Travis Holdman has more than $430,000 in his campaign account.
Trump is sitting on a campaign chest of more than half a billion dollars. How telling that he wouldn’t even support Fiecther with his spare change!
When Trump’s eagerness to hold onto power collides with his grift, he has quite the dilemma.
Quick correction: VA-SD-17 is a Harris district, voting for her by a 52-47 margin according to DRA.
Your Spanberger numbers are correct though - she won it by about 11%.
One quick note about the Maine special election: One reason why the Republican candidate got as close as she did may have been that she had a French last name while the Democratic candidate did not. Lewiston has a large Franco-American population, and these things really can make a difference.
I remember that in the early 2010s, there was a special election in Massachusetts, for a district south of Boston, an area with a lot of people of Irish descent. The Republican candidate had an Irish name - Patrick O'Connor - while the Democratic candidate did not. The district had voted for Obama, but the Republican won the special election, and I maintain to this day that he won because he had an Irish name while the Democrat did not.
Names matter. This is why O’Bama did so well amongst Irish-Americans!
never forget palin calling obama barrack obiden
I actually find this kind of old-timey ethnic bloc voting among Northeastern and Midwestern white Catholics kind of quaint and charming
Superb reporting on this. The Fiechter story is actually a pretty useful case study in the limits of endorsement power without logistical follow-throgh. Trump's political capital works best when opponents fear it will be exercised, but the moment a challenger discovers the endorsement comes with no money or staff, the threat deflates fast. I've seen similar dynamics in primary fights at the state levle, where the outside endorser has more bark than budgetary bite.
What's the the likelihood that the Democratic primary in TX ultimately has higher turnout than the Republicans? That sounds like it would be a huge deal.
If they can meet that turnout in November too, that would be a big deal.
I did not watch TACO's SOTU, simply to preserve my sanity. I did watch the social media reactions up until I went to bed at 11 p.m.
Seems like his speech was a flop with his base and pissed off everyone else.
I don't think flop is the right word. But tepidly positive with his base at best. The immediate polling showed modest upticks with Republican voters' perception compared to before the speech. Absolutely did nothing to win back moderates or independents to his cause though.
This Bluesky post is the best summary of it. Notable Trump did not mention ICE by name:
https://bsky.app/profile/joemarshall.bsky.social/post/3mfnsp7bqbk2g
Didn't mention the Epstein files, but relished recounting stories of women getting brutally murdered. Sounds familiar.
Also didn’t watch but concerned that Dems are being poor sports about the USA Hockey team. I truly want to believe that most of them are too young/apolitical to really internalize the state of affairs.
Some people out there really just don’t follow the ins and outs of politics on a daily basis! (no one on this board of course)
We are probably going to have to work something out in Montana, unless Bodnar has some interesting proosals that appeal to a wide variety of voters. There aren't enough anti-Daines voters where we can afford to split the anti-Daines constitutency, to even make the race competitive.
It's possible he keeps the race closer than Tester did, or at least Daines 2020. That could go a long way in ousting Zinke.
Sam Forstag is our guy, right?
Correct, although he needs to survive the primary first.
The Virginia primary deadlines have changed to 8/4 for this election cycle only! The Downballot's election calendar will need this update.
House candidate filing deadlines are now 5/26 for party candidates and 8/4 for independents. Candidates for all other offices must file by 4/2 for party candidate and 6/16 for independents. The VA DOE already updated their site.
https://www.wdbj7.com/2026/02/24/virginia-primary-elections-moved-august/
https://www.elections.virginia.gov/casting-a-ballot/upcoming-elections.html
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-2026-election-calendar
*Detroit Regional Chamber endorsed Mike Duggan.
late-breaking poll last night in IL-09. All I can say is... Laura Fine's unfavorables are nearly equal to her favorables. Confident in the Climate Hawks Vote endorsement of Biss. https://evanstonroundtable.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/RoundTable-PPP-IL-09-crosstabs-Feb.-20-21.pdf
The Indiana Republican state senators who opposed redistricting wanted not to rock the boat by giving the tepid state Democratic party something to rally around.
VERY IMPORTANT POLL TO VOTE IN! most annoying primary! pls vote! https://x.com/RL_Miller/status/2026461040003920182
"University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll | 2/2-2/16 LV
US Senate Texas primaries 2026
🟦Democratic
Jasmine Crockett 56%
James Talarico 44%
—
🟥Republican
Ken Paxton 36%
John Cornyn 34%
Wesley Hunt 26%"
Favorables (net)
🟦✅James Talarico (+18)
🟦✅Gina Hinojosa (+11)
🟦✅Jasmine Crockett (+10)
🟥✅Greg Abbott (+4)
🟥✅Wesley Hunt (+3)
🟥❌John Cornyn (-8)
🟥❌Ken Paxton (-10)"
Yelp.