I appreciate the coverage we obtain from "The Down Ballot" and this commentary on the Colorado situation is both informative and useful. Trump has so poisoned the Republican Party today that anything else is preferable.
Substack offers a number of very good authors. I can't subscribe to all of them and I will not accept the "auto-renew" subscription model. It would be nice to be able to have a fixed length subscription with an option to have subscription/donations split among favorite authors.
Agreed - "Auto-pay" is an abomination. It's basically just a scam to try to get us to continue paying for things even after we stop using them. I have always steadfastly refused to subscribe to any automatic payments regardless of how much various utilities and streaming services want me to.
Yup, AT&T was going to raise our bill unless we allowed them direct access to our bank account. We dropped AT&T. A lot of this is pushed by the banking & credit card processing industry. They sell the steady income tale to Substack so they can keep their steady fees rolling in. Maybe someday we will get back the CFPB, you know, like after Trump & the demolition of the "Epstein Class".
Generally when I subscribe to a newspaper on an auto renewal, as soon as I process, I cancel, and you have access through the end of your current subscription. The newspaper that automatically cancels access is the AZ Republic, and I put a cancel date in my calendar about a week before renewal.
I posted this yesterday, but Mother Jones seems convinced that 2026 will be 2010 in reverse for Democrats. Me? I'm hoping it'll be a mix of that and 2006 (Dems flipping back control of House and Senate).
If Dems are able to win trifectas in a bunch of new states in 2026 and or 2028, they can’t assume they are going to be permanently like they did after 2006/2008. They need to start on day one of those trifectas to pass laws to make it very difficult or impossible to have another 2011-2021 where Republicans got control in several states (NC, WI, PA) and drew themselves impenetrable legislative majorities that lasted over a decade. If Dems win legislative majorities in any of these three states they need to do one of these two things:
1. immediately redraw the legislative boundaries to make it impossible for Republicans to get legislative majorities in 2030 for redistricting even if it is a midterm of another unpopular Dem president (probably wouldn’t work in NC due to Republicans having control of the State Supreme Court)
2. Put independent redistricting modeled after the Michigan commission on the ballot in all three in these states so Dems have a guaranteed seat at the table in future redistrictings even if Republicans win trifectas in these states in 2030.
Either one of these two things has to be done by Dem trifectas in these three states immediately. There are no other options. Either option 1 or option 2, that’s it.
NC Democrats would have to flip the supermajorities in the legislature (or gain 60% approval from a mix of GOP and Dem legislators) in order to place a MI style independent redistricting amendment on the ballot. Ditto if they want to enshrine power to give governor control of the state board of elections and veto power over the legislative and Congressional map drawing in the future.
I do see a Democratic legislative majority in NC (should the blue tsunami wash it in this year) aggressively moving like VA and MN did. Higher minimum wage, eliminating the abortion ban, funding public schools, defunding the voucher scam, redrawing the legislative maps, making voting easier, removing the GOP statute mandating that the governor appoint replacement judges of the same party, and moving up the mandatory retirement age for judges to force extremists like Newby out earlier.
The realistic plan to flip NC is flipping control of the state Supreme Court in 2028. First part of Anderson Clayton's three-part plan (retaining Justice Allison Riggs on the SCONC) is achieved. Second part (re-electing Anita Earls) is in motion, and then the most crucial part is unseating two or all three judges (Newby, Berger Jr., Barringer) in 2028.
Yeah obviously Dems aren’t getting 60% of the seats in NC, so they are gonna have to go with option 2, which probably won’t work unless Dems win the state Supreme Court in 2028. Problem is that Dems probably can’t hold the legislature in a more neutral environment under the current lines.
Republicans have cleverly put us in this continuous catch 22 situation until we can somehow get independent redistricting on the ballot or have a huge wave election that gives us control of the legislature at the same time we have control of the state Supreme Court to allow us to gerrymander the legislative districts in our favor.
I’d prefer an independent commission here (also in WI and PA)to take the unpredictability of future elections here out of the equation.
When it was under Democratic control (or moderate Rs under the nonpartisan label), the NC Supreme Court acted like the Virginia Supreme Court. But ever since Paul Newby got into the judicial system and control flipped in 2022, it's been an arm of the NC GOP since.
One of the 2028 candidates has worked for the NC ACLU and voting rights -- and sitting justices Riggs and Earls were also voting rights attorneys. A 4-3 or 5-2 Democratic controlled SCONC will almost certainly reverse the 2023 decision on voter ID and gerrymandering (as well as Leandro), but I don't see them stepping in and ordering the BOE to remove a candidate the way the GOP majority did with RFK Jr in fall 2024.
It's annoying that we will have another midterm under a possible Dem presidency before the next census, meaning any state lege gains we make in '26/'28 could be wiped out just in time for another cycle of map-drawing. If we miraculously end up with a federal trifecta beforehand, gerrymandering must be priority #1 (hell, throw in voter ID as well).
Which is why we need independent redistricting in states where Rs could get a trifecta (PA and WI are the blinking red lights here) after the 2030 elections.
Dems had a trifecta in WI after 2008 and it was clear they could lose it all in 2010 (governor Doyle was very unpopular) yet Dems didn’t do anything to get independent redistricting on the ballot and just sat and twiddled their thumbs while the house was burning down.
In 1991, NJ Dems knew they’d get wiped out in the legislative elections that year due to Florio being super unpopular and they actually saw around the corner and implemented independent redistricting so a new Republican supermajority couldn’t gerrymander the state. That’s what Dems need to do in WI and PA prior to 2030.
Nebraska Supreme Court orders Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Cynthia Burbank back on the ballot. Last week, SoS Bob Evnen booted her, claiming she wasn't a legitimate candidate because she intended to drop out to help indie Dan Osborn.
We discussed the California governor debate tomorrow at 5 tomorrow and the below link lists tv schedules in LA, SF and Fresno. Noticably missing is San Diego and Sacramento.
They also have a summary of how they selected and excluded candidates, which on its face is nonsense. Based on this, I would assume Steyer is likely to be our next governor, lol. Not.
💙🩵💙
I appreciate the coverage we obtain from "The Down Ballot" and this commentary on the Colorado situation is both informative and useful. Trump has so poisoned the Republican Party today that anything else is preferable.
Substack offers a number of very good authors. I can't subscribe to all of them and I will not accept the "auto-renew" subscription model. It would be nice to be able to have a fixed length subscription with an option to have subscription/donations split among favorite authors.
Keep up the good work.
Agreed - "Auto-pay" is an abomination. It's basically just a scam to try to get us to continue paying for things even after we stop using them. I have always steadfastly refused to subscribe to any automatic payments regardless of how much various utilities and streaming services want me to.
Yup, AT&T was going to raise our bill unless we allowed them direct access to our bank account. We dropped AT&T. A lot of this is pushed by the banking & credit card processing industry. They sell the steady income tale to Substack so they can keep their steady fees rolling in. Maybe someday we will get back the CFPB, you know, like after Trump & the demolition of the "Epstein Class".
Generally when I subscribe to a newspaper on an auto renewal, as soon as I process, I cancel, and you have access through the end of your current subscription. The newspaper that automatically cancels access is the AZ Republic, and I put a cancel date in my calendar about a week before renewal.
The Downballot has an ActBlue page.
Berger needs to take a hint and concede. Unless he wants to get spanked the way Jefferson Griffin did last year by Justice Myers.
Too many Jeffs? Jeff Hurd is in CO-3, Jeff Crank (in photo) is in CO-5.
Thank you, we've fixed!
-Another Jeff
I posted this yesterday, but Mother Jones seems convinced that 2026 will be 2010 in reverse for Democrats. Me? I'm hoping it'll be a mix of that and 2006 (Dems flipping back control of House and Senate).
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2025/12/state-house-democrats-dlcc-midterm-blue-wave/
If Dems are able to win trifectas in a bunch of new states in 2026 and or 2028, they can’t assume they are going to be permanently like they did after 2006/2008. They need to start on day one of those trifectas to pass laws to make it very difficult or impossible to have another 2011-2021 where Republicans got control in several states (NC, WI, PA) and drew themselves impenetrable legislative majorities that lasted over a decade. If Dems win legislative majorities in any of these three states they need to do one of these two things:
1. immediately redraw the legislative boundaries to make it impossible for Republicans to get legislative majorities in 2030 for redistricting even if it is a midterm of another unpopular Dem president (probably wouldn’t work in NC due to Republicans having control of the State Supreme Court)
2. Put independent redistricting modeled after the Michigan commission on the ballot in all three in these states so Dems have a guaranteed seat at the table in future redistrictings even if Republicans win trifectas in these states in 2030.
Either one of these two things has to be done by Dem trifectas in these three states immediately. There are no other options. Either option 1 or option 2, that’s it.
NC Democrats would have to flip the supermajorities in the legislature (or gain 60% approval from a mix of GOP and Dem legislators) in order to place a MI style independent redistricting amendment on the ballot. Ditto if they want to enshrine power to give governor control of the state board of elections and veto power over the legislative and Congressional map drawing in the future.
I do see a Democratic legislative majority in NC (should the blue tsunami wash it in this year) aggressively moving like VA and MN did. Higher minimum wage, eliminating the abortion ban, funding public schools, defunding the voucher scam, redrawing the legislative maps, making voting easier, removing the GOP statute mandating that the governor appoint replacement judges of the same party, and moving up the mandatory retirement age for judges to force extremists like Newby out earlier.
The realistic plan to flip NC is flipping control of the state Supreme Court in 2028. First part of Anderson Clayton's three-part plan (retaining Justice Allison Riggs on the SCONC) is achieved. Second part (re-electing Anita Earls) is in motion, and then the most crucial part is unseating two or all three judges (Newby, Berger Jr., Barringer) in 2028.
Yeah obviously Dems aren’t getting 60% of the seats in NC, so they are gonna have to go with option 2, which probably won’t work unless Dems win the state Supreme Court in 2028. Problem is that Dems probably can’t hold the legislature in a more neutral environment under the current lines.
Republicans have cleverly put us in this continuous catch 22 situation until we can somehow get independent redistricting on the ballot or have a huge wave election that gives us control of the legislature at the same time we have control of the state Supreme Court to allow us to gerrymander the legislative districts in our favor.
I’d prefer an independent commission here (also in WI and PA)to take the unpredictability of future elections here out of the equation.
When it was under Democratic control (or moderate Rs under the nonpartisan label), the NC Supreme Court acted like the Virginia Supreme Court. But ever since Paul Newby got into the judicial system and control flipped in 2022, it's been an arm of the NC GOP since.
One of the 2028 candidates has worked for the NC ACLU and voting rights -- and sitting justices Riggs and Earls were also voting rights attorneys. A 4-3 or 5-2 Democratic controlled SCONC will almost certainly reverse the 2023 decision on voter ID and gerrymandering (as well as Leandro), but I don't see them stepping in and ordering the BOE to remove a candidate the way the GOP majority did with RFK Jr in fall 2024.
Yep. Flipping the state supreme court was crucial in WI and PA and for fair districts in NC the first time
It's annoying that we will have another midterm under a possible Dem presidency before the next census, meaning any state lege gains we make in '26/'28 could be wiped out just in time for another cycle of map-drawing. If we miraculously end up with a federal trifecta beforehand, gerrymandering must be priority #1 (hell, throw in voter ID as well).
Which is why we need independent redistricting in states where Rs could get a trifecta (PA and WI are the blinking red lights here) after the 2030 elections.
Dems had a trifecta in WI after 2008 and it was clear they could lose it all in 2010 (governor Doyle was very unpopular) yet Dems didn’t do anything to get independent redistricting on the ballot and just sat and twiddled their thumbs while the house was burning down.
In 1991, NJ Dems knew they’d get wiped out in the legislative elections that year due to Florio being super unpopular and they actually saw around the corner and implemented independent redistricting so a new Republican supermajority couldn’t gerrymander the state. That’s what Dems need to do in WI and PA prior to 2030.
Nebraska Supreme Court orders Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Cynthia Burbank back on the ballot. Last week, SoS Bob Evnen booted her, claiming she wasn't a legitimate candidate because she intended to drop out to help indie Dan Osborn.
Linking to an article.
https://nebraskapublicmedia.org/en/news/news-articles/nebraska-supreme-court-sides-with-democratic-senate-candidate-in-last-minute-dispute-over-her-removal-from-the-ballot/
Major black eye to MAGA Evnen.
We discussed the California governor debate tomorrow at 5 tomorrow and the below link lists tv schedules in LA, SF and Fresno. Noticably missing is San Diego and Sacramento.
They also have a summary of how they selected and excluded candidates, which on its face is nonsense. Based on this, I would assume Steyer is likely to be our next governor, lol. Not.
https://dornsife.usc.edu/center-for-political-future/news/california-governor-debate-2026/
Candidate viability scores were as follows:
1. Steyer, 28.96
2. Hilton, 10.23
3. Swalwell, 9.37
4. Porter, 9.01
5. Mahan, 8.70
6. Bianco, 8.09
Candidates whose lower polling and fundraising scores fell below the top six include:
7. Becerra, 3.73
8. Villaraigosa, 3.72
9. Yee, 3.44
10. Thurmond, 1.40
11. Ware, 1.30
12. All other candidates, <1.00
The thing that stands out to me is weird is including Mahan. The other top 5 make sense.