Abdul El-Sayed and James Talarico in the Senate would be particularly nice. They're cut from different cloths but both seem like genuine advocates for their constituents.
It looks like Democrats are in great shape in New England but what is going on in Florida? As a retired Illinois state lawmaker I would urge Democrats in the blue states out East to adopt universal vote by mail, it gets the ballot to those hard to get Dem voters but who are our best voters (percentage-wise). Western blue states, except New Mexico, have done this. It saves tax dollars every election cycle and boosts voter turnout.
I would also urge all blue states to combine the local elections with the even year midterm elections (California and Nevada have already done this). It boosts voter turnout, saves a large amount of tax money every election cycle and results in more women and MORE Minorities elected to local offices.
These are win-win-win reforms for the nation's progress!!! My fear is that Dem leaders will do like they have in the past, think that voters have given them permanent victories. Voters today are more volatile than ever. They fell for Trump so we could be vulnerable to a smarter Trump-type in the near future. Reform and recovery together!!!
Agreed. 40 days out and we're looking better than ever in most places. But it's clear to me too that something like the nightmare of this last 10 years can happen again stronger in the future if we don't have guardrails on our democracy like the ones you mentioned and bigger ones like stacking the Supreme Court, overturning Citizens United and uncapping the House.
I mean, Florida is often a magnet for more conservative voters from blue states. Same way Beto won Texan natives, and Cruz won transplants. The folks in my social circle (40 and under) who are from/went to school in FL and are left-leaning want to leave or have.
He is going to places where the crowd still loves him. He wants to hear people sing his praises to satisfy his ego, he doesn’t care about shifting races for other Republicans
It’s pathetic that they are so unwilling to predict an obvious wave. In what world is WA-3 a tossup? In what world are none of the Iowa House races Lean D? The idea that in a world in which the generic ballot is D+9 nationwide there are only 4 Republican held seats that even lean D is obviously false.
this is the full list. I will note that some AZ folk on Xitter are questioning why AZ-01 but not AZ-06... didn't see any other "huh?" but wasn't really looking hard. https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2103460392219312361
Summary: Republican groups may spend about $200 million in Texas by Election Day. Republicans also expect Paxton to report one of or possibly the highest quarterly totals for a GOP senate candidate this cycle, but they expect Talarico to post an even larger total.
As a Vermonter I have to say I'm somewhat skeptical of this poll. Janoo has barely raised any money and can't even afford TV ads. Anecdotal, but I've seen very few signs in a county where she needs to run up the score. Plus Scott just started his TV ad campaign. I sincerely hope this is poll is true, but the guy got 73% 2 years ago...
KS-Sen: The Senate Majority PAC is considering an investment into Democrat Adam Hamilton. He's in an unusually competitive race against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall.
Be advised - Marshall's first run in 2020 was also perceived as competitive only to be decided by double digits. I don't see a reason to put this below Likely R at this point, unless SMP does intervene and Hamilton starts leading more.
This seems far too pessimistic, there are plenty of reasons to put this below Likely R, including:
- The polls show that it's a tossup
- Kansas has been trending to the left for years
- We have a clear candidate quality advantage, and Roger Marshall has scandals that weren't known about last time
- We know that Trump has pissed off a lot of voters in farm country with the trade war and with the high price of diesel
- Kansas only voted 3 points to the right of Iowa in 2024, and right now the polling average has Turek winning by 2 points in Iowa
We definitely could lose, but it clearly seems like a tossup at the moment. I think we're more likely to win Kansas than to lose Texas, and the data backs that up.
Hopefully Flippo's flippant fibs will flip the seat from Red to Blue.
My hope is that this building wave brings some new/unexpected stars into the tent. Especially in tough states/districts.
Abdul El-Sayed and James Talarico in the Senate would be particularly nice. They're cut from different cloths but both seem like genuine advocates for their constituents.
Or Peltola and Troy Jackson for that matter.
Not to forget Cooper, and those in less competitive open seats. If all elected, the new crop of Senators would be really diverse.
It looks like Democrats are in great shape in New England but what is going on in Florida? As a retired Illinois state lawmaker I would urge Democrats in the blue states out East to adopt universal vote by mail, it gets the ballot to those hard to get Dem voters but who are our best voters (percentage-wise). Western blue states, except New Mexico, have done this. It saves tax dollars every election cycle and boosts voter turnout.
I would also urge all blue states to combine the local elections with the even year midterm elections (California and Nevada have already done this). It boosts voter turnout, saves a large amount of tax money every election cycle and results in more women and MORE Minorities elected to local offices.
These are win-win-win reforms for the nation's progress!!! My fear is that Dem leaders will do like they have in the past, think that voters have given them permanent victories. Voters today are more volatile than ever. They fell for Trump so we could be vulnerable to a smarter Trump-type in the near future. Reform and recovery together!!!
Agreed. 40 days out and we're looking better than ever in most places. But it's clear to me too that something like the nightmare of this last 10 years can happen again stronger in the future if we don't have guardrails on our democracy like the ones you mentioned and bigger ones like stacking the Supreme Court, overturning Citizens United and uncapping the House.
I mean, Florida is often a magnet for more conservative voters from blue states. Same way Beto won Texan natives, and Cruz won transplants. The folks in my social circle (40 and under) who are from/went to school in FL and are left-leaning want to leave or have.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/us/politics/trump-rally-tennessee-oklahoma-alabama-republicans.html
TN-Gov, OK-Gov, AL-Gov: Trump is campaigning...here??? He'll be in Knoxville, TN; Durant, OK and Mobile, AL next week.
Marsha Blackburn, Mike Mazzei and Tommy Tuberville, the Republicans in major statewide races here, are not expected to be in close races.
He is going to places where the crowd still loves him. He wants to hear people sing his praises to satisfy his ego, he doesn’t care about shifting races for other Republicans
Yep, and those are the only safe spaces left for him. The reddest of the red.
Cook moved 15 seats in Democratic direction.
https://x.com/Redistrict/status/2103441968835539144?s=20
It’s pathetic that they are so unwilling to predict an obvious wave. In what world is WA-3 a tossup? In what world are none of the Iowa House races Lean D? The idea that in a world in which the generic ballot is D+9 nationwide there are only 4 Republican held seats that even lean D is obviously false.
Out of curiosity, which seats? I can’t seem to find any article saying which.
this is the full list. I will note that some AZ folk on Xitter are questioning why AZ-01 but not AZ-06... didn't see any other "huh?" but wasn't really looking hard. https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2103460392219312361
Thanks a ton RL! I do agree that the AZ-1/AZ-6 situation is a bit odd. (I think both are going to flip myself.)
TX-Sen: Punchbowl News: Texas PAC pours even more cash into the Lone Star State (https://punchbowl.news/article/campaigns/texas-pac-pours-more-money-into-state/)
Summary: Republican groups may spend about $200 million in Texas by Election Day. Republicans also expect Paxton to report one of or possibly the highest quarterly totals for a GOP senate candidate this cycle, but they expect Talarico to post an even larger total.
As a Vermonter I have to say I'm somewhat skeptical of this poll. Janoo has barely raised any money and can't even afford TV ads. Anecdotal, but I've seen very few signs in a county where she needs to run up the score. Plus Scott just started his TV ad campaign. I sincerely hope this is poll is true, but the guy got 73% 2 years ago...
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/25/senate-democrats-considering-spending-kansas-texas-01093042
KS-Sen: The Senate Majority PAC is considering an investment into Democrat Adam Hamilton. He's in an unusually competitive race against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall.
Be advised - Marshall's first run in 2020 was also perceived as competitive only to be decided by double digits. I don't see a reason to put this below Likely R at this point, unless SMP does intervene and Hamilton starts leading more.
This seems far too pessimistic, there are plenty of reasons to put this below Likely R, including:
- The polls show that it's a tossup
- Kansas has been trending to the left for years
- We have a clear candidate quality advantage, and Roger Marshall has scandals that weren't known about last time
- We know that Trump has pissed off a lot of voters in farm country with the trade war and with the high price of diesel
- Kansas only voted 3 points to the right of Iowa in 2024, and right now the polling average has Turek winning by 2 points in Iowa
We definitely could lose, but it clearly seems like a tossup at the moment. I think we're more likely to win Kansas than to lose Texas, and the data backs that up.
Another Texas poll. Talarico up 5, Abbott up 4.
https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/new-poll-in-texas-general-election-662
McKee's unpopularity clearly effects Matos, if only voters had coalesced around an opponent...
She'll win by like 10-15.