Abdul El-Sayed and James Talarico in the Senate would be particularly nice. They're cut from different cloths but both seem like genuine advocates for their constituents.
It looks like Democrats are in great shape in New England but what is going on in Florida? As a retired Illinois state lawmaker I would urge Democrats in the blue states out East to adopt universal vote by mail, it gets the ballot to those hard to get Dem voters but who are our best voters (percentage-wise). Western blue states, except New Mexico, have done this. It saves tax dollars every election cycle and boosts voter turnout.
I would also urge all blue states to combine the local elections with the even year midterm elections (California and Nevada have already done this). It boosts voter turnout, saves a large amount of tax money every election cycle and results in more women and MORE Minorities elected to local offices.
These are win-win-win reforms for the nation's progress!!! My fear is that Dem leaders will do like they have in the past, think that voters have given them permanent victories. Voters today are more volatile than ever. They fell for Trump so we could be vulnerable to a smarter Trump-type in the near future. Reform and recovery together!!!
Agreed. 40 days out and we're looking better than ever in most places. But it's clear to me too that something like the nightmare of this last 10 years can happen again stronger in the future if we don't have guardrails on our democracy like the ones you mentioned and bigger ones like stacking the Supreme Court, overturning Citizens United and uncapping the House.
That *and* a larger House. Tell me how one person is supposed to adequately represent 900,000 people across 10,000 square miles with only 2 offices in the district while balancing a life voting on the floor, giving interviews to MSM and being accosted by lobbyists and special interests (caving to them or not) and maybe you'll change my mind.
I would probably opt for an anti-gerrymandering law before uncapping the house but the latter does need to be treated as a priority as well. A larger house and less people per district makes representation much more accurate and democratic. My ideal ratio is that every district's population should be equal to the population of the smallest state divided by two. That way no state has less representatives than senators.
I mean, Florida is often a magnet for more conservative voters from blue states. Same way Beto won Texan natives, and Cruz won transplants. The folks in my social circle (40 and under) who are from/went to school in FL and are left-leaning want to leave or have.
He is going to places where the crowd still loves him. He wants to hear people sing his praises to satisfy his ego, he doesn’t care about shifting races for other Republicans
It’s pathetic that they are so unwilling to predict an obvious wave. In what world is WA-3 a tossup? In what world are none of the Iowa House races Lean D? The idea that in a world in which the generic ballot is D+9 nationwide there are only 4 Republican held seats that even lean D is obviously false.
The primary results of WA-3 already paint a dismal picture for the GOP's chances of flipping it this cycle (I've previously gone and analyzed primary results vs general election results in Washington over the last few cycles, bottom line was that the general results rarely differed significantly from the primary results). Keeping it as a true tossup feels like being cautious for the sake of being cautious.
I'd also object to AK-AL being "Likely R." Begich has an advantage obviously but in this environment and facing an independent, I think calling it "Lean R" would be appropriate, especially given the strength Democrats have in the senate and governor's race. Begich only performed 3.4 points better than Sullivan did in his primary, so if Sullivan goes down, I think Begich has a decent shot at going with him.
this is the full list. I will note that some AZ folk on Xitter are questioning why AZ-01 but not AZ-06... didn't see any other "huh?" but wasn't really looking hard. https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2103460392219312361
Open seat versus incumbent. Kean is the only incumbent GOP House member Cook has rated as worse than Tossup other than where their seat has been redrawn since 2024.
Summary: Republican groups may spend about $200 million in Texas by Election Day. Republicans also expect Paxton to report one of or possibly the highest quarterly totals for a GOP senate candidate this cycle, but they expect Talarico to post an even larger total.
As a Vermonter I have to say I'm somewhat skeptical of this poll. Janoo has barely raised any money and can't even afford TV ads. Anecdotal, but I've seen very few signs in a county where she needs to run up the score. Plus Scott just started his TV ad campaign. I sincerely hope this is poll is true, but the guy got 73% 2 years ago...
It's difficult to get a read on the race because UNH is the only source of polls at the moment. I've never really heard of them being super unreliable or low quality, but more polls from other pollsters would be nice. Looking at their three polls, they do have a very clear trend:
June Poll: Scott 42% - Janoo 27%
July Poll: Scott 44% - Janoo 33%
September Poll: Janoo 49% - Scott 43%
Janoo's support has increased dramatically, and Scott is stagnating. I also do recall a poll from a different source - maybe Morning Consult - that showed that Scott's popularity did drop from its typical chart-topping numbers. Something like from 70% to 50%, I believe? He's still popular, but a couple of decisions he's made plus the national environment is starting to bring him back down to Earth, and I expect that the results will be much less dramatic than his previous election results.
You're right, UNH had his approval at 47 recently which is certainly a dramatic fall from the whole "most popular governor in the nation" thing... I think he was close to 70 two years ago and went on to win with a similar %.
That said, I definitely don't see him putting up a 2022/2024 margin but I would be truly stunned to see him lose to Janoo. I thought Richards stood a better chance, but I digress.
As a fellow Vermonter, I agree. UNH polls also are notorious for showcasing large swings. What I like about the poll, though, is it starts to erode the narrative of an inevitable Scott win. A quick poll check shows this is the first time Scott has been behind in any poll since 2016 (if I didn't miss any). A lot more will need to happen to convince me this race is competitive, but even a small win by Scott this year will leave him more vulnerable in future races.
I think you're right, I don't believe Hallquist ever led and I'm 99% sure Zuck, Siegal and Charlestin never did given the margins. I still think Scott will win this one by ~10 but yeah opens the door in 28 for a more serious candidate like Clark or Pieciak.
KS-Sen: The Senate Majority PAC is considering an investment into Democrat Adam Hamilton. He's in an unusually competitive race against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall.
Be advised - Marshall's first run in 2020 was also perceived as competitive only to be decided by double digits. I don't see a reason to put this below Likely R at this point, unless SMP does intervene and Hamilton starts leading more.
This seems far too pessimistic, there are plenty of reasons to put this below Likely R, including:
- The polls show that it's a tossup
- Kansas has been trending to the left for years
- We have a clear candidate quality advantage, and Roger Marshall has scandals that weren't known about last time
- We know that Trump has pissed off a lot of voters in farm country with the trade war and with the high price of diesel
- Kansas only voted 3 points to the right of Iowa in 2024, and right now the polling average has Turek winning by 2 points in Iowa
We definitely could lose, but it clearly seems like a tossup at the moment. I think we're more likely to win Kansas than to lose Texas, and the data backs that up.
I think "Methodist Nice" plays well in a state like KS (and might be replicable in UT and NE, maybe). And you know he has charisma out the wazoo, because it's the first time I've ever seen "mega-Church" associated with the UMC.
Liked for the thoughtful argument but I disagree. KS has been rock-ribbed Republican for over a century. I agree that we have a chance, but I think Likely R is the right rating for this race.
A lot of senate polls in 2020 underestimated Republican support, though. Maine, Arizona, North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Montana, even Alabama to an extent. It wasn't a phenomenon unique to Kansas but a broader, national trend. I think Lean R is appropriate in this environment.
2020 also had Trump on the ballot. He turns out voters that don't really turn out for Midterms. I'm not saying the polls are right but comparing this to 2020 isn't fair either.
Charlie Cook wrote a column where he talked about KS-Sen as if it were a tossup. CPR has since formally moved the race from Likely R to Lean GOP. They're notably conservative in this type of move, so I'd see that as the worst case for this race at present.
At this point, it’s more probably Talarico will win the Senate race than Hinojosa will win the Gubernatorial race if polling is an indicator of anything.
It's behind a paywall and I haven't found any source who has gotten around it to see if Patrick mentions which specific state senate races.
My thoughts are: Is this just a scare tactic to get money and create fear to get Republicans out to vote? The Texas State Senate is notoriously gerrymandered for Republicans. Patrick mentions candidates, which probably is the SD-9/Taylor Rehmet seat where that poll was just released. As far as actual senators, the only one I could think might be trailing could be SD-5. The Republican incumbent got into some trouble a few years ago, but the district covers 63% of Williamson County, directly north of Austin; an area that Talarico is likely looking to for a good voter turnout.
After that I struggle to think of who else might be trailing. SD-2 has 16% of Dallas County. SD-22 has 37% of Williams and 100% of Bell County. Bell County is considered somewhat of a bellwether county for Texas. It's been growing and the city of Killeen gave Biden 63% of the vote. Republicans split the city in half to dilute the Democratic vote between 2 state house districts.
The thing about all these Republican districts is that while they're attached to urban areas, they stretch into the outlying more rural/conservative counties so those voters outvote the urban/liberal voters.
Should also mention from the piece these gems: "Patrick also talked about his own race as well as Gov. Greg Abbott’s campaign against Rep. Gina Hinojosa, per attendees, telling the crowd that if the election were held today both he and Gov. Abbott would win their races “as long as everything goes right.”
He also said AG Ken Paxton is essentially tied with Rep. James Talarico."
Didn’t we see dramatic shifts in the special elections in suburbs around Texas cities? We are hearing the same thing here in Indiana that there are several GOP held seats in the suburbs that are going to fall.
I believe there could be as many as 100 Republican held seats that could be in danger or be within a few points of defeat. I think districts that are as high as R+13 have to be on alert.
Interestingly enough, Lisa Murkowski of all people came out to defend Peltola and the alleged outburst, noting that it was in recent light of her husband's passing, Buzzy Peltola, calling the characterization of the incidents inflammatory. This is despite the fact that Murkowski has endorsed Sullivan for reelection. I guess as a moderate, deep down, Murkowski may be growing weary of the chaos of Trump and the Republican party and this may be her small way of doing something decent for once.
Besides being a woman, whatever issues Peltola has pale by comparison to the real liabilities Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzalez, Graham Platner, Eva Lopez Chavez and other candidates running for elected office this year.
What did Willie Preston do again? I can't remember.
Also don't forget Chuck Edwards, who had to drop out of his race. Or now Susan Collins. Or Bo French, who lost Karl Rove's vote thanks to his grotesquely offensive comments. Or Lauren Boebert, assuming she actually did have the affairs she said she did. Or Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, or Ashley Moody, or Roger Marshall, or Ken Paxton, or now David Flippo as mentioned in the Digest, or Mike Collins and his Nazi staffers, or all the officials who just flat out disappeared without a trace like Tom Kean Jr or Mitch McConnell, etc.
This list is distressingly long, and depending on your definition of scandal only grows.
Which leads me to a question I'll pose for posters here. Do you think there is any way to bring more accountability to American politics? If so, how would you do it?
Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell will resign after a damning internal investigation substantiated allegations that he sexually harassed a female staffer and repeatedly violated state ethics rules, the New Jersey Globe has confirmed.
Sherrill will have 45 days from the effective date of Caldwell’s resignation to appoint a replacement. The appointment does not require Senate confirmation, and there will be no special election.
I wonder if he also abused students when he was in charge of Centenary University. Would probably get pulled under the rug since it's a prestigious private school.
Good, no clue who's going to replace him though. I imagine it's someone from the cabinet, but besides Jennifer Davenport, the AG, they're complete unknowns, and most people aren't going to have heard of Davenport, either.
It probably doesn't matter whether the Lieutenant Governor is unknown. The only things that really matter, a bit, are competence in case they have to take over and a lack of damning things in their record
Something interesting: On 270toWin's House predictions map, Democrats are now favored in enough districts to secure the majority without winning a single race listed as a "tossup."
There also seems to be very few "Lean R" districts remaining, notwithstanding more Likely R districts shifting to Lean R in the weeks leading up to election day which is possible. The threshold in which a Republican is considered Likely/Safe for reelection seems to be getting smaller and smaller as time goes on. I think at this moment any Republican in a district Trump won by 10 points or less could be considered endangered, with a handful of Republicans in even redder districts being potentially vulnerable depending on candidate quality.
Hopefully Flippo's flippant fibs will flip the seat from Red to Blue.
My hope is that this building wave brings some new/unexpected stars into the tent. Especially in tough states/districts.
Abdul El-Sayed and James Talarico in the Senate would be particularly nice. They're cut from different cloths but both seem like genuine advocates for their constituents.
Or Peltola and Troy Jackson for that matter.
Not to forget Cooper, and those in less competitive open seats. If all elected, the new crop of Senators would be really diverse.
Adam Hamilton as well. In Kansas, he’s seeing the farming sector being hit hard with tariffs and the War in Iran.
Plus, Hamilton like Talarico is a man of faith. He’s pastor who runs a prominent Methodist church in KS.
It looks like Democrats are in great shape in New England but what is going on in Florida? As a retired Illinois state lawmaker I would urge Democrats in the blue states out East to adopt universal vote by mail, it gets the ballot to those hard to get Dem voters but who are our best voters (percentage-wise). Western blue states, except New Mexico, have done this. It saves tax dollars every election cycle and boosts voter turnout.
I would also urge all blue states to combine the local elections with the even year midterm elections (California and Nevada have already done this). It boosts voter turnout, saves a large amount of tax money every election cycle and results in more women and MORE Minorities elected to local offices.
These are win-win-win reforms for the nation's progress!!! My fear is that Dem leaders will do like they have in the past, think that voters have given them permanent victories. Voters today are more volatile than ever. They fell for Trump so we could be vulnerable to a smarter Trump-type in the near future. Reform and recovery together!!!
Agreed. 40 days out and we're looking better than ever in most places. But it's clear to me too that something like the nightmare of this last 10 years can happen again stronger in the future if we don't have guardrails on our democracy like the ones you mentioned and bigger ones like stacking the Supreme Court, overturning Citizens United and uncapping the House.
I don't see a larger House as essential. A nationwide free districting law is essential.
That *and* a larger House. Tell me how one person is supposed to adequately represent 900,000 people across 10,000 square miles with only 2 offices in the district while balancing a life voting on the floor, giving interviews to MSM and being accosted by lobbyists and special interests (caving to them or not) and maybe you'll change my mind.
I would probably opt for an anti-gerrymandering law before uncapping the house but the latter does need to be treated as a priority as well. A larger house and less people per district makes representation much more accurate and democratic. My ideal ratio is that every district's population should be equal to the population of the smallest state divided by two. That way no state has less representatives than senators.
I mean, Florida is often a magnet for more conservative voters from blue states. Same way Beto won Texan natives, and Cruz won transplants. The folks in my social circle (40 and under) who are from/went to school in FL and are left-leaning want to leave or have.
Is there survey data to show that Beto won TX natives and Cruz won transplants? Just curious.
Yes, albeit just the one.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas/senate
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/us/politics/trump-rally-tennessee-oklahoma-alabama-republicans.html
TN-Gov, OK-Gov, AL-Gov: Trump is campaigning...here??? He'll be in Knoxville, TN; Durant, OK and Mobile, AL next week.
Marsha Blackburn, Mike Mazzei and Tommy Tuberville, the Republicans in major statewide races here, are not expected to be in close races.
He is going to places where the crowd still loves him. He wants to hear people sing his praises to satisfy his ego, he doesn’t care about shifting races for other Republicans
Yep, and those are the only safe spaces left for him. The reddest of the red.
Which is ironic, because Durant is the only red town he's going to. Knoxville is blue and Mobile is swingy.
I think he'll get booed at the Texas-Tennessee game
It would be great if he scheduled a week of rallies in Wyoming too. Lol.
Cook moved 15 seats in Democratic direction.
https://x.com/Redistrict/status/2103441968835539144?s=20
It’s pathetic that they are so unwilling to predict an obvious wave. In what world is WA-3 a tossup? In what world are none of the Iowa House races Lean D? The idea that in a world in which the generic ballot is D+9 nationwide there are only 4 Republican held seats that even lean D is obviously false.
The primary results of WA-3 already paint a dismal picture for the GOP's chances of flipping it this cycle (I've previously gone and analyzed primary results vs general election results in Washington over the last few cycles, bottom line was that the general results rarely differed significantly from the primary results). Keeping it as a true tossup feels like being cautious for the sake of being cautious.
I'd also object to AK-AL being "Likely R." Begich has an advantage obviously but in this environment and facing an independent, I think calling it "Lean R" would be appropriate, especially given the strength Democrats have in the senate and governor's race. Begich only performed 3.4 points better than Sullivan did in his primary, so if Sullivan goes down, I think Begich has a decent shot at going with him.
Out of curiosity, which seats? I can’t seem to find any article saying which.
this is the full list. I will note that some AZ folk on Xitter are questioning why AZ-01 but not AZ-06... didn't see any other "huh?" but wasn't really looking hard. https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2103460392219312361
Thanks a ton RL! I do agree that the AZ-1/AZ-6 situation is a bit odd. (I think both are going to flip myself.)
Yeah, we aren't winning the House if those don't flip. It's almost a foregone conclusion.
Open seat versus incumbent. Kean is the only incumbent GOP House member Cook has rated as worse than Tossup other than where their seat has been redrawn since 2024.
"Likely R" seems too bearish for MN-01. I'd be surprised if Brad Finstad's standing was any better than Lean R.
TX-Sen: Punchbowl News: Texas PAC pours even more cash into the Lone Star State (https://punchbowl.news/article/campaigns/texas-pac-pours-more-money-into-state/)
Summary: Republican groups may spend about $200 million in Texas by Election Day. Republicans also expect Paxton to report one of or possibly the highest quarterly totals for a GOP senate candidate this cycle, but they expect Talarico to post an even larger total.
As a Vermonter I have to say I'm somewhat skeptical of this poll. Janoo has barely raised any money and can't even afford TV ads. Anecdotal, but I've seen very few signs in a county where she needs to run up the score. Plus Scott just started his TV ad campaign. I sincerely hope this is poll is true, but the guy got 73% 2 years ago...
I'm also skeptical of the NH result. Warmington is a uniquely bad candidate.
Can you elaborate a bit on Warmington? Just curious. Haven't followed that race too closely but I imagine her history as a Purdue schill isn't helping
Exactly.
It's 100% her Purdue schilling.
It's difficult to get a read on the race because UNH is the only source of polls at the moment. I've never really heard of them being super unreliable or low quality, but more polls from other pollsters would be nice. Looking at their three polls, they do have a very clear trend:
June Poll: Scott 42% - Janoo 27%
July Poll: Scott 44% - Janoo 33%
September Poll: Janoo 49% - Scott 43%
Janoo's support has increased dramatically, and Scott is stagnating. I also do recall a poll from a different source - maybe Morning Consult - that showed that Scott's popularity did drop from its typical chart-topping numbers. Something like from 70% to 50%, I believe? He's still popular, but a couple of decisions he's made plus the national environment is starting to bring him back down to Earth, and I expect that the results will be much less dramatic than his previous election results.
You're right, UNH had his approval at 47 recently which is certainly a dramatic fall from the whole "most popular governor in the nation" thing... I think he was close to 70 two years ago and went on to win with a similar %.
That said, I definitely don't see him putting up a 2022/2024 margin but I would be truly stunned to see him lose to Janoo. I thought Richards stood a better chance, but I digress.
As a fellow Vermonter, I agree. UNH polls also are notorious for showcasing large swings. What I like about the poll, though, is it starts to erode the narrative of an inevitable Scott win. A quick poll check shows this is the first time Scott has been behind in any poll since 2016 (if I didn't miss any). A lot more will need to happen to convince me this race is competitive, but even a small win by Scott this year will leave him more vulnerable in future races.
I think you're right, I don't believe Hallquist ever led and I'm 99% sure Zuck, Siegal and Charlestin never did given the margins. I still think Scott will win this one by ~10 but yeah opens the door in 28 for a more serious candidate like Clark or Pieciak.
More likely, it will inspire him to retire. And hopefully a strong Democrat can win the open seat in 2028.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/25/senate-democrats-considering-spending-kansas-texas-01093042
KS-Sen: The Senate Majority PAC is considering an investment into Democrat Adam Hamilton. He's in an unusually competitive race against Republican Sen. Roger Marshall.
Be advised - Marshall's first run in 2020 was also perceived as competitive only to be decided by double digits. I don't see a reason to put this below Likely R at this point, unless SMP does intervene and Hamilton starts leading more.
This seems far too pessimistic, there are plenty of reasons to put this below Likely R, including:
- The polls show that it's a tossup
- Kansas has been trending to the left for years
- We have a clear candidate quality advantage, and Roger Marshall has scandals that weren't known about last time
- We know that Trump has pissed off a lot of voters in farm country with the trade war and with the high price of diesel
- Kansas only voted 3 points to the right of Iowa in 2024, and right now the polling average has Turek winning by 2 points in Iowa
We definitely could lose, but it clearly seems like a tossup at the moment. I think we're more likely to win Kansas than to lose Texas, and the data backs that up.
I think "Methodist Nice" plays well in a state like KS (and might be replicable in UT and NE, maybe). And you know he has charisma out the wazoo, because it's the first time I've ever seen "mega-Church" associated with the UMC.
Speaking of Marshall. Here's a BRUTAL ad that shows just how heinous he is. https://bsky.app/profile/teamhamiltonhq.bsky.social/post/3mwdyqn3j422e
What a fucking asshole!
Liked for the thoughtful argument but I disagree. KS has been rock-ribbed Republican for over a century. I agree that we have a chance, but I think Likely R is the right rating for this race.
A lot of senate polls in 2020 underestimated Republican support, though. Maine, Arizona, North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Montana, even Alabama to an extent. It wasn't a phenomenon unique to Kansas but a broader, national trend. I think Lean R is appropriate in this environment.
2020 also had Trump on the ballot. He turns out voters that don't really turn out for Midterms. I'm not saying the polls are right but comparing this to 2020 isn't fair either.
Charlie Cook wrote a column where he talked about KS-Sen as if it were a tossup. CPR has since formally moved the race from Likely R to Lean GOP. They're notably conservative in this type of move, so I'd see that as the worst case for this race at present.
Another Texas poll. Talarico up 5, Abbott up 4.
https://texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com/p/new-poll-in-texas-general-election-662
At this point, it’s more probably Talarico will win the Senate race than Hinojosa will win the Gubernatorial race if polling is an indicator of anything.
I think that's been true all along
Yes. Plus, Talarico’s hitting the headlines and fundraising anywhere and everywhere he can. This isn’t the case as much with Hinojosa.
McKee's unpopularity clearly effects Matos, if only voters had coalesced around an opponent...
She'll win by like 10-15.
That sounds right
Rasmussen has Brown up 46-43 in the Ohio Senate race
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_ohio_senate
Isn't Rasmussen a BS pollster now?
And even they find a lead for Brown...
TX-State Senate: From the Quorum Report: Lite Gov. Patrick tells supporters that some of his senators and GOP candidates for Texas Senate are trailing democrats, per sources (https://www.quorumreport.com/Quorum_Report_Daily_Buzz_2026/lt_gov_patrick_tells_supporters_that_some_of_his_s_buzziid33477.html)
It's behind a paywall and I haven't found any source who has gotten around it to see if Patrick mentions which specific state senate races.
My thoughts are: Is this just a scare tactic to get money and create fear to get Republicans out to vote? The Texas State Senate is notoriously gerrymandered for Republicans. Patrick mentions candidates, which probably is the SD-9/Taylor Rehmet seat where that poll was just released. As far as actual senators, the only one I could think might be trailing could be SD-5. The Republican incumbent got into some trouble a few years ago, but the district covers 63% of Williamson County, directly north of Austin; an area that Talarico is likely looking to for a good voter turnout.
After that I struggle to think of who else might be trailing. SD-2 has 16% of Dallas County. SD-22 has 37% of Williams and 100% of Bell County. Bell County is considered somewhat of a bellwether county for Texas. It's been growing and the city of Killeen gave Biden 63% of the vote. Republicans split the city in half to dilute the Democratic vote between 2 state house districts.
The thing about all these Republican districts is that while they're attached to urban areas, they stretch into the outlying more rural/conservative counties so those voters outvote the urban/liberal voters.
Should also mention from the piece these gems: "Patrick also talked about his own race as well as Gov. Greg Abbott’s campaign against Rep. Gina Hinojosa, per attendees, telling the crowd that if the election were held today both he and Gov. Abbott would win their races “as long as everything goes right.”
He also said AG Ken Paxton is essentially tied with Rep. James Talarico."
Every state senate seat up not held by a Democrat is Trump +20 or more, and none were closer than Trump +15 in 2020, so that's hard to believe.
I could see Trump+15-20 seats trailing, especially if a lot of the Republican votes were by Latinos.
None of the seats are super Hispanic, if they were then they probably would've been closer in 2020.
Ok, noted.
Didn’t we see dramatic shifts in the special elections in suburbs around Texas cities? We are hearing the same thing here in Indiana that there are several GOP held seats in the suburbs that are going to fall.
I believe there could be as many as 100 Republican held seats that could be in danger or be within a few points of defeat. I think districts that are as high as R+13 have to be on alert.
Interestingly enough, Lisa Murkowski of all people came out to defend Peltola and the alleged outburst, noting that it was in recent light of her husband's passing, Buzzy Peltola, calling the characterization of the incidents inflammatory. This is despite the fact that Murkowski has endorsed Sullivan for reelection. I guess as a moderate, deep down, Murkowski may be growing weary of the chaos of Trump and the Republican party and this may be her small way of doing something decent for once.
She's also a woman, and may not want every moment of her life to be judged harshly.
Besides being a woman, whatever issues Peltola has pale by comparison to the real liabilities Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzalez, Graham Platner, Eva Lopez Chavez and other candidates running for elected office this year.
Dale Caldwell, Cory Mills, Andy Ogles, Max Miller, Willie Preston, Jimmy Gomez...
What did Willie Preston do again? I can't remember.
Also don't forget Chuck Edwards, who had to drop out of his race. Or now Susan Collins. Or Bo French, who lost Karl Rove's vote thanks to his grotesquely offensive comments. Or Lauren Boebert, assuming she actually did have the affairs she said she did. Or Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, or Ashley Moody, or Roger Marshall, or Ken Paxton, or now David Flippo as mentioned in the Digest, or Mike Collins and his Nazi staffers, or all the officials who just flat out disappeared without a trace like Tom Kean Jr or Mitch McConnell, etc.
This list is distressingly long, and depending on your definition of scandal only grows.
Which leads me to a question I'll pose for posters here. Do you think there is any way to bring more accountability to American politics? If so, how would you do it?
Murkowski and Peltola are also old friends.
Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell will resign after a damning internal investigation substantiated allegations that he sexually harassed a female staffer and repeatedly violated state ethics rules, the New Jersey Globe has confirmed.
Sherrill will have 45 days from the effective date of Caldwell’s resignation to appoint a replacement. The appointment does not require Senate confirmation, and there will be no special election.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/section-2/caldwell-will-resign-as-lieutenant-governor-after-harassment-ethics-findings/
I wonder if he also abused students when he was in charge of Centenary University. Would probably get pulled under the rug since it's a prestigious private school.
Good, no clue who's going to replace him though. I imagine it's someone from the cabinet, but besides Jennifer Davenport, the AG, they're complete unknowns, and most people aren't going to have heard of Davenport, either.
It probably doesn't matter whether the Lieutenant Governor is unknown. The only things that really matter, a bit, are competence in case they have to take over and a lack of damning things in their record
Something interesting: On 270toWin's House predictions map, Democrats are now favored in enough districts to secure the majority without winning a single race listed as a "tossup."
https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/
There also seems to be very few "Lean R" districts remaining, notwithstanding more Likely R districts shifting to Lean R in the weeks leading up to election day which is possible. The threshold in which a Republican is considered Likely/Safe for reelection seems to be getting smaller and smaller as time goes on. I think at this moment any Republican in a district Trump won by 10 points or less could be considered endangered, with a handful of Republicans in even redder districts being potentially vulnerable depending on candidate quality.