Beyond the internal strife for republicans, I suspect a Talarico win would be a huge shot in the arm for democrats. He's a good messenger for people that are sympathetic to dems but struggle to get to "yes" with us.
Anyway in general I'm really impressed with Talarico. Progressive Christianity on the rise in general--speaking as a non Christian, to be transparent--is I think a really good sign for this country in general. The religious right has had a stranglehold on not just the Republicans but, I want to say--incredibly enough--supposed moral authority.
This is more vibes than knowing numbers, but I wonder if there's a significant number of rank and file swing vote/soft R, moderately social conservative Christians who might be swayed away from Republicans for good and all between the rank corruption of the Trump admin and a strong leader like Talarico speaking that language to argue for a progressive agenda.
p.s. have we talked about the new Dem candidate for KS Senate in here? iirc that's a very popular evangelical church leader; could be an interesting wrinkle at the very least.
I definitely support and value the Religious Left! But I don't hold out much hope of persuading the numerous white Christian fundamentalists whose religion is really white supremacy. And that's an awful lot of ostensibly religious white people in the U.S.
Walz has appointed 5/7 SCOMN justices; barring an unexpected retirement/death, there isn't anyone set to retire until 2033, i.e. the beginning of Klobuchar's* second term.
I get why people think Schumer's a milquetoast, but Jeffries has not been shy of fightin' words for a good while ime. Whether you agree with all his actions is another question, but--well, and also I think just maybe he takes Callais a bit personally. I mean, who wouldn't.
Interesting. The R/D and approval numbers are believable, so it's surprising to see an R/I race at a tie. Would be nice if it's accurate, though haven't the Dems in this race been pretty obstinate about dropping out? Still, this gives me a sliver of hope.
oh gross. I hate politician ego. Look at the long road, you twits? You're not gonna win it outright; you could end up a hero and eventually in a much more favorable environment?
I hope that happens. If not, maybe she'll just raise no money, not be able to advertise, and Bodnar will be able to absorb her support? Kind of wishful thinking, but it could happen if the wave is large enough. I'm doubtful either potential Dem nominee will be able to raise much, even if Montana is cheap to advertise in.
Neill has been extremely hostile to the idea of deferring to Bodnar's candidacy. She is no Cindy Burbank. Maybe her mind can be changed, but it sure sounds like she'd rather lose herself than risk someone else winning.
Some of the individual pollsters in there have been on a journey. Who/what is RMG, anyone know?
A number of the ones with 3 or 4 point spreads still, I notice they're usually well shy of 100 total--I expect there are a lot of "don't know" there. Those tend to break heavily one way or another, in the end, not split down the middle.
Any efficient Dem gerrymander of NJ would have Ocean county all in one district. Even on a fair map it should be, because it makes geographic sense.
This pre-2021 crap where a majority of the county was paired with Dem leaning Burlington county to dilute Dem strength there was nothing but a remnant of an old Republican gerrymander.
I wonder why Ocean County was so open to Democrats in the mid to late nineties. Clinton actually won Ocean County, and Al Gore only lost it by one point
How close do you think we’ll get to completely closing the gap between Trump disapproval and the GCB performance? Because if we somehow closed it all the way and won the overall GCB by 20+ points (which I really don’t think will happen), we’d probably flip 12 or more Senate seats and 80+ House seats.
Thomas isn't going to retire; he's going to stay there a la RBG. Alito might with his new book coming out a day before the fall cases get argued.
And even if the Iran conflict was resolved today, the gas prices will be slow to come down and inflation will stay high throughout the summer and into fall.
I think you're overestimating the impact of SCOTUS races. Kavanaugh only became a flashpoint when the allegations came out. If a new judges goes through without a hitch like Gorsuch, then there will likely be little effect.
Partially, it's hard because, for example, there are so many RW polls in the RCP average now artificially inflating the GOP number. If you look back at the 2006 RCP average, even Fox News had D + 13 going into the final weekend.
Very interesting! I don’t know that I would say inevitable, after Jan 6th I thought it was inevitable there would be consequences, no way people just forgive and forget, and yet….
It’s definitely an interesting trend and I think a better explanation than most for why the GCB has lagged approval so severely but has recently been catching up.
It will be interesting to see what the summer and fall hold! 6 months ago it was impossible to foresee everything that has happened until now, same holds for the next 6 months. Trends are favorable for Dem’s, but there’s a lot of work to do to ensure it stays trending that way by Nov!
I totally agree that we need to be aggressive about reforms. Biden totally misunderstood the directive he was given when he ran on make life normal again and just did the exact things they were doing before without major reforms.
I think there’s a big appetite for rehauling how government works for people. Things like consequences for corruption, ensuring votes matter (proportional representation, DC/PR/territories statehood) and reigning in billionaires could have wide support. Especially if pitched correctly, in the vein of, these people have been ripping you off, we’re setting the scales right, this economy will work for you now, etc.
I think a big reason people are so detached from politics and focused on their own situation is because the system feels rigged and corrupt, so why try? If you had someone who seriously went to bat fixing things structurally I really think a good chunk of them would be interested.
Potentially hopelessly naive and optimistic, but better than detaching myself!!
Biden's plans were stymied by Joe Manchin and Kristin Sinema. And it did not help to have a senator from New Mexico out of voting due to a stroke, and Diane Finestein not competent. There was also more infighting amongst Democrats than there should have been. That Biden got an infrastructure bill through was a big deal.
That stuff seems to be much MUCH more effective when it's a) concrete b) local. "Infrastructure" is pretty abstract feeling. "Fix the damn potholes in (name of local main street)" is the kind of thing that's great to run on in a more intimate race. (It helps to also follow through on it)
see: Mamdani, Zohran. It's not just the ideals and charisma, though they help. For NYCers it's "I will fix THIS and THAT specific thing"-the buses, for example.
It’s a great point that Biden had a hand tied behind his back, and I failed to acknowledge here that they did attempt some reforms with the John Lewis voting bill.
All that said, I really hope our next Dem president comes in with reform top of mind.
Something like “Accountability, Affordability, and Reconstruction” (or Alteration if you want to keep the alliteration haha)
Well, there was also the Inflation Reduction Act--a terrible name for a good bill. The Student Loan issue was also a problem, since Congress needed to do it, but the votes were not there. Although Biden made several attempts using executive authority, the courts struck it down, and that made it look like Democrats do not keep promises. We need not to promise more than we think we can do, then if we can do more, shout it from the rooftops.
At the risk of being called a dead-ender again, Biden's legislative achievements were not "the exact things they were doing before without major reforms." The IRA alone was the most significant climate bill ever passed in the U.S., and the provisions in the infrastructure law that were environmentally-focused far exceeded anything ever done before.
I agree that the Democrats will squander whatever majority they get if they don't go bold both in 2027 and, assuming they win the Presidency, in 2029. People don't want weak measures or protecting old norms when there's so much reform that needs to happen. But to deny that there are a lot of very progressive provisions in the Biden legislative record is simply wrong.
Well said, and agreed about the IRA being the most consequential climate bill ever! (So far) The positive effects of that will hopefully be felt for decades to come!
To rephrase my point, the bold legislation needs to include structural democratic, governmental reforms. DC/PR statehood, expanding the house/Supreme Court, proportional representation, etc.
When I said what had done before, I meant legislation focused on non-structural reforms, like Obamacare. I support Obamacare and the IRA and think we need to go further on both fronts! I just think if we come in and pass IRA 2.0 or some similarly ground breaking, but not structural changes, we run the risk of flipping right back to fascism next time the dinosaur juice gets pricy.
So not trying to say that there wasn’t good legislation, just the wrong type. Seems like we’re aligned, hope this clarifies my intent! I say it as a former Biden dead ender myself! (I still think his legacy will be net positive with time)
Dragonfire, thank you for a deep and convincing analysis! It makes me more hopeful that the coming Blue Tsunami will overcome the shenanigans that Trump & MAGA are sure to attempt this November – and in the aftermath of their demolition at the ballot box.
I think I mentioned this race on a weekend thread, but the Dem candidate outran Harris by about 10 points when he ran for commissioner of the largest town in the district in 2025, so he seems decent.
In a terrifying way, the defeat of Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s Republican primary underscores Trump’s iron-grip control of the MAGA-Fascist party into which the Republican Party has transmogrified. His dwindling base of voters continues to do his bidding. No dissent is tolerated – and Mad King Donald can be relied on to never forget a grudge.
It’s quite frightening, really, and it underscores how absolutely critical it is to build a massive Blue Tsunami in November’s Midterm Elections. We need to continue ensuring Democratic victories also in every special election / ordinary election between now and November! Today:
Beyond the internal strife for republicans, I suspect a Talarico win would be a huge shot in the arm for democrats. He's a good messenger for people that are sympathetic to dems but struggle to get to "yes" with us.
He's -very- interesting. Counting chickens, but I could see him as POTUS candidate down the road.
No biggie, but we don't discuss Democratic presidential primaries even in terms of prospective candidates here.
Ah, sorry! Thanks for letting me know.
Anyway in general I'm really impressed with Talarico. Progressive Christianity on the rise in general--speaking as a non Christian, to be transparent--is I think a really good sign for this country in general. The religious right has had a stranglehold on not just the Republicans but, I want to say--incredibly enough--supposed moral authority.
This is more vibes than knowing numbers, but I wonder if there's a significant number of rank and file swing vote/soft R, moderately social conservative Christians who might be swayed away from Republicans for good and all between the rank corruption of the Trump admin and a strong leader like Talarico speaking that language to argue for a progressive agenda.
p.s. have we talked about the new Dem candidate for KS Senate in here? iirc that's a very popular evangelical church leader; could be an interesting wrinkle at the very least.
I definitely support and value the Religious Left! But I don't hold out much hope of persuading the numerous white Christian fundamentalists whose religion is really white supremacy. And that's an awful lot of ostensibly religious white people in the U.S.
Interesting. Far from a death blow to the Texas Republican Party, though. They will win in the future, regardless of the results of this election.
Lol, nope. Dems are getting destroyed. Again I think we need to stop analyzing early vote.
Walz has appointed 5/7 SCOMN justices; barring an unexpected retirement/death, there isn't anyone set to retire until 2033, i.e. the beginning of Klobuchar's* second term.
How much did the NRSC and the RNC blow on Cornyn in the primary?
Technically, isnt "No Labels" a label?
Stop injecting logic into this!
The words have been spoken. Lets see the action followthrough of the next two years.
I get why people think Schumer's a milquetoast, but Jeffries has not been shy of fightin' words for a good while ime. Whether you agree with all his actions is another question, but--well, and also I think just maybe he takes Callais a bit personally. I mean, who wouldn't.
Interesting. The R/D and approval numbers are believable, so it's surprising to see an R/I race at a tie. Would be nice if it's accurate, though haven't the Dems in this race been pretty obstinate about dropping out? Still, this gives me a sliver of hope.
The far right radio host is somebody else, Alme was a U.S. Attorney close to Daines
oh gross. I hate politician ego. Look at the long road, you twits? You're not gonna win it outright; you could end up a hero and eventually in a much more favorable environment?
blech
Democrats should push Neill to drop out if she is the nominee, like in Nebraska.
I hope that happens. If not, maybe she'll just raise no money, not be able to advertise, and Bodnar will be able to absorb her support? Kind of wishful thinking, but it could happen if the wave is large enough. I'm doubtful either potential Dem nominee will be able to raise much, even if Montana is cheap to advertise in.
Neill has been extremely hostile to the idea of deferring to Bodnar's candidacy. She is no Cindy Burbank. Maybe her mind can be changed, but it sure sounds like she'd rather lose herself than risk someone else winning.
Wait, what? There's an independent in MT like there is in NE? Can the DEm step out?
nvm I see the answer upthread. grr
If the two Democratic candidates flip the SCOGA seats tonight, there WILL be all three candidates to unseat the incumbents in 2028.
I wonder how much voter purges and voter suppression the GOP and Trump can or will try to get away with to overcome that margin.
Some of the individual pollsters in there have been on a journey. Who/what is RMG, anyone know?
A number of the ones with 3 or 4 point spreads still, I notice they're usually well shy of 100 total--I expect there are a lot of "don't know" there. Those tend to break heavily one way or another, in the end, not split down the middle.
lot of that kind of thing about, sigh
Since when is Echelon rated A?
One may say they are now in the upper Echelon of the polling world.
I'll show myself out.
Follow the real time turnout in DeKalb here.
https://dekalbgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/4c790bbc7bca4d748a71d69429904d6c
Any efficient Dem gerrymander of NJ would have Ocean county all in one district. Even on a fair map it should be, because it makes geographic sense.
This pre-2021 crap where a majority of the county was paired with Dem leaning Burlington county to dilute Dem strength there was nothing but a remnant of an old Republican gerrymander.
I wonder why Ocean County was so open to Democrats in the mid to late nineties. Clinton actually won Ocean County, and Al Gore only lost it by one point
How close do you think we’ll get to completely closing the gap between Trump disapproval and the GCB performance? Because if we somehow closed it all the way and won the overall GCB by 20+ points (which I really don’t think will happen), we’d probably flip 12 or more Senate seats and 80+ House seats.
Makes sense. I know it’s early, but where do you think the GCB will be for the actual election in November?
Thomas isn't going to retire; he's going to stay there a la RBG. Alito might with his new book coming out a day before the fall cases get argued.
And even if the Iran conflict was resolved today, the gas prices will be slow to come down and inflation will stay high throughout the summer and into fall.
I think you're overestimating the impact of SCOTUS races. Kavanaugh only became a flashpoint when the allegations came out. If a new judges goes through without a hitch like Gorsuch, then there will likely be little effect.
Partially, it's hard because, for example, there are so many RW polls in the RCP average now artificially inflating the GOP number. If you look back at the 2006 RCP average, even Fox News had D + 13 going into the final weekend.
Very interesting! I don’t know that I would say inevitable, after Jan 6th I thought it was inevitable there would be consequences, no way people just forgive and forget, and yet….
It’s definitely an interesting trend and I think a better explanation than most for why the GCB has lagged approval so severely but has recently been catching up.
It will be interesting to see what the summer and fall hold! 6 months ago it was impossible to foresee everything that has happened until now, same holds for the next 6 months. Trends are favorable for Dem’s, but there’s a lot of work to do to ensure it stays trending that way by Nov!
I totally agree that we need to be aggressive about reforms. Biden totally misunderstood the directive he was given when he ran on make life normal again and just did the exact things they were doing before without major reforms.
I think there’s a big appetite for rehauling how government works for people. Things like consequences for corruption, ensuring votes matter (proportional representation, DC/PR/territories statehood) and reigning in billionaires could have wide support. Especially if pitched correctly, in the vein of, these people have been ripping you off, we’re setting the scales right, this economy will work for you now, etc.
I think a big reason people are so detached from politics and focused on their own situation is because the system feels rigged and corrupt, so why try? If you had someone who seriously went to bat fixing things structurally I really think a good chunk of them would be interested.
Potentially hopelessly naive and optimistic, but better than detaching myself!!
Biden's plans were stymied by Joe Manchin and Kristin Sinema. And it did not help to have a senator from New Mexico out of voting due to a stroke, and Diane Finestein not competent. There was also more infighting amongst Democrats than there should have been. That Biden got an infrastructure bill through was a big deal.
That stuff seems to be much MUCH more effective when it's a) concrete b) local. "Infrastructure" is pretty abstract feeling. "Fix the damn potholes in (name of local main street)" is the kind of thing that's great to run on in a more intimate race. (It helps to also follow through on it)
see: Mamdani, Zohran. It's not just the ideals and charisma, though they help. For NYCers it's "I will fix THIS and THAT specific thing"-the buses, for example.
It’s a great point that Biden had a hand tied behind his back, and I failed to acknowledge here that they did attempt some reforms with the John Lewis voting bill.
All that said, I really hope our next Dem president comes in with reform top of mind.
Something like “Accountability, Affordability, and Reconstruction” (or Alteration if you want to keep the alliteration haha)
Well, there was also the Inflation Reduction Act--a terrible name for a good bill. The Student Loan issue was also a problem, since Congress needed to do it, but the votes were not there. Although Biden made several attempts using executive authority, the courts struck it down, and that made it look like Democrats do not keep promises. We need not to promise more than we think we can do, then if we can do more, shout it from the rooftops.
At the risk of being called a dead-ender again, Biden's legislative achievements were not "the exact things they were doing before without major reforms." The IRA alone was the most significant climate bill ever passed in the U.S., and the provisions in the infrastructure law that were environmentally-focused far exceeded anything ever done before.
I agree that the Democrats will squander whatever majority they get if they don't go bold both in 2027 and, assuming they win the Presidency, in 2029. People don't want weak measures or protecting old norms when there's so much reform that needs to happen. But to deny that there are a lot of very progressive provisions in the Biden legislative record is simply wrong.
Thank you for posting this!
Well said, and agreed about the IRA being the most consequential climate bill ever! (So far) The positive effects of that will hopefully be felt for decades to come!
To rephrase my point, the bold legislation needs to include structural democratic, governmental reforms. DC/PR statehood, expanding the house/Supreme Court, proportional representation, etc.
When I said what had done before, I meant legislation focused on non-structural reforms, like Obamacare. I support Obamacare and the IRA and think we need to go further on both fronts! I just think if we come in and pass IRA 2.0 or some similarly ground breaking, but not structural changes, we run the risk of flipping right back to fascism next time the dinosaur juice gets pricy.
So not trying to say that there wasn’t good legislation, just the wrong type. Seems like we’re aligned, hope this clarifies my intent! I say it as a former Biden dead ender myself! (I still think his legacy will be net positive with time)
Dragonfire, thank you for a deep and convincing analysis! It makes me more hopeful that the coming Blue Tsunami will overcome the shenanigans that Trump & MAGA are sure to attempt this November – and in the aftermath of their demolition at the ballot box.
I think I mentioned this race on a weekend thread, but the Dem candidate outran Harris by about 10 points when he ran for commissioner of the largest town in the district in 2025, so he seems decent.
In a terrifying way, the defeat of Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s Republican primary underscores Trump’s iron-grip control of the MAGA-Fascist party into which the Republican Party has transmogrified. His dwindling base of voters continues to do his bidding. No dissent is tolerated – and Mad King Donald can be relied on to never forget a grudge.
It’s quite frightening, really, and it underscores how absolutely critical it is to build a massive Blue Tsunami in November’s Midterm Elections. We need to continue ensuring Democratic victories also in every special election / ordinary election between now and November! Today:
Georgia on my mind!
. (and its supreme court election)