In a terrifying way, the defeat of Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s Republican primary underscores Trump’s iron-grip control of the MAGA-Fascist party into which the Republican Party has transmogrified. His dwindling base of voters continues to do his bidding. No dissent is tolerated – and Mad King Donald can be relied on to never forget a grudge.
It’s quite frightening, really, and it underscores how absolutely critical it is to build a massive Blue Tsunami in November’s Midterm Elections. We need to continue ensuring Democratic victories also in every special election / ordinary election between now and November! Today:
That August special election in the PA House of Reps might be a better Democratic target than the one today. The August one is for HD-12, a fast-growing, Dem-trending area in the Pittsburgh exurbs. The district voted for Trump by 18.4 percent in 2024 (and 19.8 percent in 2020), but only 51-49 for the Republicans in the statewide judicial races last fall. Do Dems have any good candidates here?
I think I mentioned this race on a weekend thread, but the Dem candidate outran Harris by about 10 points when he ran for commissioner of the largest town in the district in 2025, so he seems decent.
"In a temporary restraining order, U.S. Chief Judge Leslie A. Gardner said the Judicial Qualifications Commission (JQC) cannot issue a non-confidential 'public statement' about the allegations outlined in April notice letters to Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin, finding that kind of late-campaign disclosure could chill protected political speech without meaningful constitutional review."
Gardner is an Obama appointee on the M.D. Ga., and sister of Stacey Abrams.
In Indiana, a recount will be conducted in a Republican primary state senate race in which the Trump-endorsed candidate lost by three votes. No surprise that she is now claiming "fraud."
I can't fault a candidate for asking for a recount when they're down by 3 votes. That's way easier to overcome with a simple recanvas or recount than 23 votes.
Happy Election Day y’all! While we wait for turnout anecdotes and election day reports, I wanted to share with you something I’ve noticed recently.
One thing I do feel confident about my abilities in, is spotting patterns before anyone starts talking about them. Up until now, there’s been a massive gap between Trump approval and Republican vote intention in 2026. In simple terms: The GOP was winning over a ton of Trump disapprovers in the midterms. This became so obvious in poll after poll that The Argument wrote an article about how Democrats are at their ceiling because of unpopular policy decisions by the party.
However, that article and the conventional wisdom that became fairly widespread and accepted afterwards never accounted for the very simple fact that voters are slow to react to anything. Aka, the longer people feel something they don’t like, the more likely they are to change their opinion as time passes. For average voters, it’s not a sudden switch, but a slow phase of transition taking place over many months.
The first thing that happens is voters stop strongly approving of their party. That’s a signal of more trouble for a party coming, which was early this year. After that, voters switch to disapproval, but continue supporting their party. That’s where we’ve been this Spring. Next comes the drop in party support, which is now starting as the Summer begins and recent GCB (generic congressional ballot) polling coincidentally has become even more brutal for the GOP because of this.
The last phase will be the fall, when voters decide to vote for the opposition, fully completing their transition. The entire Trump approval gap in polls has suddenly been erased, or, at the very least, shrunk massively from what it was, as voters begin to give up on hoping for change coming from the party in power. This result, imo, was always going to happen, unless the economy drastically shifted, which was absolutely not going to happen.
So much wasted ink and time spent by pundits who should know better about the basics of politics on something that was almost certainly going to change once voters got fed up enough of the cost of everything in the economy and another Middle Eastern war that has no end date in sight. This was the inevitable outcome, but too few “political experts” recognized the difference between where we’d likely end up vs what the polls actually showed back then.
I’m not going to go through every demographic in every poll, but just 1 for an example of what phase we’re now starting. Notice the Hispanic/Latino voter numbers in the latest NYT/Siena poll: Trump 20% approval, Republican vote choice: 24%. The enormous gap we’ve seen up until now has almost completely disappeared! And while Democrats obviously haven’t closed their own gap between Trump disapprovers and party vote choice, that’s the last and final step we’ll start experiencing a few months down the road.
So this supposed Democratic poll ceiling everyone’s been talking about the last few months because of “insert reasons here about being too far left” has suddenly collapsed and Democrats are doing even better in the GCB then they had been doing before. This outcome was entirely predictable if people who have enough political knowledge to know better, also looked into the future and where we were likely headed, instead of looking only at what they see right in front of them and trying to make future midterm analysis based solely on that.
How close do you think we’ll get to completely closing the gap between Trump disapproval and the GCB performance? Because if we somehow closed it all the way and won the overall GCB by 20+ points (which I really don’t think will happen), we’d probably flip 12 or more Senate seats and 80+ House seats.
In 2018 we got to about 90% of Trump disapprovers voting Democratic, so that should probably be around what we’d get in 2026. That said, your question needs a bit more context. If you’re asking about the people who actually vote in the election, I’d say 90% disapprovers voting Democratic is probably attainable if not slightly more likely than less. If you’re asking about the current number of disapprovers (in this poll for example), in how many Democrats would likely get, I’d say lower than that because a LOT of the disapprovers won’t vote for a Democrat for any reason and will choose to stay home instead.
Really hard to say, because so many things could change between now and then. That said, with caveats, I think we’re definitely headed for D+ double digits in November. My current guess is we’ll end up around D+12 and we could go as high as D+15 and as low as D+10.
I may be underestimating out of caution from having been burned in predictions so many times before, but in a hyperpartisan era, 15 points feels like the upper limit possible for either party right now. I try to always adjust after getting something wrong, so hopefully the next time I get it right.
However, that’s only if, in November: 1) Gas prices stay the same or increase more. 2) We’re still at war in Iran. 3) Inflation is the same or worse. 4) Alito/Thomas don’t retire 5) MAGA/Republicans don’t get reactivated after months of sustained daily propaganda designed specifically to try to do that. You can probably argue 4 and 5 are the same, but to me they’re separate.
A Supreme Court seat open and at risk in the midterms instantly reactivates moribund partisans (see Kavanaugh + 2018 Senate races), regardless of anything else, whereas propaganda during a time when the right wing voters are already feeling pinched living day to day may or may not have that effect.
Thomas isn't going to retire; he's going to stay there a la RBG. Alito might with his new book coming out a day before the fall cases get argued.
And even if the Iran conflict was resolved today, the gas prices will be slow to come down and inflation will stay high throughout the summer and into fall.
I think you’ve misunderstood what I’ve wrote. I’m not saying all those things that have to happen aren’t likely to. In fact, I think it’s more likely than not that all 5 are present conditions in November. But what I am saying is that I can’t say for certainty that they will right now because of how much time there is until November.
As time between now and the midterms decreases and those possibilities don’t show any sign of happening, my confidence in a higher GCB and prediction increases. It’s me acting no different then how any political models work.
The uncertainty of what could happen in the future is what leads to caution and lower numbers, but as time passes with nothing changing in the political environment, that increases the electoral vote share predicted of the political party automatically, even without any other factor changing.
I think you're overestimating the impact of SCOTUS races. Kavanaugh only became a flashpoint when the allegations came out. If a new judges goes through without a hitch like Gorsuch, then there will likely be little effect.
I think that’s a very fair point and you could be right. But only if they actually confirmed the new judge before the election. If they held it open as an incentive for their base to vote, I’d still expect a very similar outcome.
Partially, it's hard because, for example, there are so many RW polls in the RCP average now artificially inflating the GOP number. If you look back at the 2006 RCP average, even Fox News had D + 13 going into the final weekend.
Very interesting! I don’t know that I would say inevitable, after Jan 6th I thought it was inevitable there would be consequences, no way people just forgive and forget, and yet….
It’s definitely an interesting trend and I think a better explanation than most for why the GCB has lagged approval so severely but has recently been catching up.
It will be interesting to see what the summer and fall hold! 6 months ago it was impossible to foresee everything that has happened until now, same holds for the next 6 months. Trends are favorable for Dem’s, but there’s a lot of work to do to ensure it stays trending that way by Nov!
Sadly voters don’t care about anything except their own lives in politics. They never have and never will. This is also why I’ve been pushing so hard for our party supporters and leaders to go bolder and bigger than what we’ve ever thought possible politically. Like ending the filibuster, breaking apart corporate monopolies, mandating civics education in every school, expanding the Supreme Court, adding DC/PR as states, having accountability for every single person who’s been a part of Trump’s regime with real jail time etc.
Voters won’t give a shit about that as long as we also fix the economy by lowering the cost of living at the same time. Fascism, an attempted coup, the weaponization of the government against political enemies, corruption and criminality, none of that matters. If it doesn’t affect them personally, they don’t care. See how many Trump supportive Hispanics/Latinos have been shocked when they were deported for exhibit A of that. But the second voters feel like they’re falling behind on the cost of living each day, that’s what matters and that’s when they turn against a politician or party.
It’s why 2018 wasn’t a 2010 in reverse, why Democrats lost in 2024 and why 2026 is going to be a biblical level backlash against the GOP that’ll make history, barring a black swan event, massive change in the economy, a sudden upending of the way political dynamics have always worked, or, frighteningly, a massive disruption at the polls with armed government agents intimidating voters to stay home in blue city and suburban voting centres (while not being there for rural areas).
The luckiest/saddest part of this entire timeline of hell we’ve lived in is that had Trump 2 not been Trump and nuked the economy by tariffs, killed and kidnapped Americans by ICE agents and went to war with Iran, we’d be facing a 2022 midterm environment as the fascist cult completed their takeover of every institution in America while actually being supported by voters. They’ve already succeeded in doing the former, Republicans control every lever of power, from Washington, all media, to the judiciary, but at least now, they’ll face voter repercussions from it, instead of cementing permanent control for decades.
Even while the reason for the coming electoral backlash isn’t about any of that being unacceptable to voters, but instead the cost of filling up their gas tanks and spending on groceries is what caused them to break from the party. What a fucked up country that we’re all a part of.
I totally agree that we need to be aggressive about reforms. Biden totally misunderstood the directive he was given when he ran on make life normal again and just did the exact things they were doing before without major reforms.
I think there’s a big appetite for rehauling how government works for people. Things like consequences for corruption, ensuring votes matter (proportional representation, DC/PR/territories statehood) and reigning in billionaires could have wide support. Especially if pitched correctly, in the vein of, these people have been ripping you off, we’re setting the scales right, this economy will work for you now, etc.
I think a big reason people are so detached from politics and focused on their own situation is because the system feels rigged and corrupt, so why try? If you had someone who seriously went to bat fixing things structurally I really think a good chunk of them would be interested.
Potentially hopelessly naive and optimistic, but better than detaching myself!!
Biden's plans were stymied by Joe Manchin and Kristin Sinema. And it did not help to have a senator from New Mexico out of voting due to a stroke, and Diane Finestein not competent. There was also more infighting amongst Democrats than there should have been. That Biden got an infrastructure bill through was a big deal.
That’s another area where I think Democrats made a big mistake. Focusing on something intangible like infrastructure even though it badly needed an update.
We assumed since voters used transportation every day that they’d see all these projects being worked on and completed and automatically know Democratic legislation built that and helped voters travel better. We should’ve instead focused solely on issues that actually affected voters pocketbooks. Voters never would’ve realized what we did for them, because they only care about their own bottom line.
Or, at the very least, we should’ve mandated simple blue signs with white letters to be erected at every infrastructure update/creation stating very plainly “This project was created thanks to President Biden and Democrats in Congress” and mandating in the law of the signs staying up after completion. That would be a permanent constant daily reminder of what Democrats did for voters and make an impact.
But we didn’t do that, so no one felt any of the legislation we passed actually helped them. So, instead, voters went back to the Republican Party that promised them they’d fix high prices.
That stuff seems to be much MUCH more effective when it's a) concrete b) local. "Infrastructure" is pretty abstract feeling. "Fix the damn potholes in (name of local main street)" is the kind of thing that's great to run on in a more intimate race. (It helps to also follow through on it)
see: Mamdani, Zohran. It's not just the ideals and charisma, though they help. For NYCers it's "I will fix THIS and THAT specific thing"-the buses, for example.
It’s a great point that Biden had a hand tied behind his back, and I failed to acknowledge here that they did attempt some reforms with the John Lewis voting bill.
All that said, I really hope our next Dem president comes in with reform top of mind.
Something like “Accountability, Affordability, and Reconstruction” (or Alteration if you want to keep the alliteration haha)
Well, there was also the Inflation Reduction Act--a terrible name for a good bill. The Student Loan issue was also a problem, since Congress needed to do it, but the votes were not there. Although Biden made several attempts using executive authority, the courts struck it down, and that made it look like Democrats do not keep promises. We need not to promise more than we think we can do, then if we can do more, shout it from the rooftops.
At the risk of being called a dead-ender again, Biden's legislative achievements were not "the exact things they were doing before without major reforms." The IRA alone was the most significant climate bill ever passed in the U.S., and the provisions in the infrastructure law that were environmentally-focused far exceeded anything ever done before.
I agree that the Democrats will squander whatever majority they get if they don't go bold both in 2027 and, assuming they win the Presidency, in 2029. People don't want weak measures or protecting old norms when there's so much reform that needs to happen. But to deny that there are a lot of very progressive provisions in the Biden legislative record is simply wrong.
Well said, and agreed about the IRA being the most consequential climate bill ever! (So far) The positive effects of that will hopefully be felt for decades to come!
To rephrase my point, the bold legislation needs to include structural democratic, governmental reforms. DC/PR statehood, expanding the house/Supreme Court, proportional representation, etc.
When I said what had done before, I meant legislation focused on non-structural reforms, like Obamacare. I support Obamacare and the IRA and think we need to go further on both fronts! I just think if we come in and pass IRA 2.0 or some similarly ground breaking, but not structural changes, we run the risk of flipping right back to fascism next time the dinosaur juice gets pricy.
So not trying to say that there wasn’t good legislation, just the wrong type. Seems like we’re aligned, hope this clarifies my intent! I say it as a former Biden dead ender myself! (I still think his legacy will be net positive with time)
Dragonfire, thank you for a deep and convincing analysis! It makes me more hopeful that the coming Blue Tsunami will overcome the shenanigans that Trump & MAGA are sure to attempt this November – and in the aftermath of their demolition at the ballot box.
I unironically believe we should absolutely do this in New Jersey when we redraw. For those who don’t know, Schnall is a conservative orthodox Jewish Democrat holding a Trump +30 seat in the state legislature.
This is an interesting idea, but there aren't really enough ultra-Orthodox Jews in Central Jersey (yet) in order to pull off something like this. A non-Jewish Republican would most likely win the Republican district on the map at that link.
And besides, if Schnall didn't run, we'd just be endangering the Democrats representing neighboring districts who would have to take in some strongly Republican areas of Ocean County.
Any efficient Dem gerrymander of NJ would have Ocean county all in one district. Even on a fair map it should be, because it makes geographic sense.
This pre-2021 crap where a majority of the county was paired with Dem leaning Burlington county to dilute Dem strength there was nothing but a remnant of an old Republican gerrymander.
I wonder why Ocean County was so open to Democrats in the mid to late nineties. Clinton actually won Ocean County, and Al Gore only lost it by one point
I def think Talarico has a shot, but I think there is a kernel of truth to the theory that Cornyn may have ended up doing *worse* than Paxton because he doesn't excite the base and has etch-a-sketched his past to try and win this primary, endearing him to no one.
I find Abbott's near-Orban-like domination of Texas (is it 12 years now?) inexplicable; but then, Republicans in general are like aliens at this point, mostly
They never learn that no amount of groveling will ever work. I'd feel sad that the establishment wing is being forced out of the republican party for MAGA. But when the establishment wing tries to emulate MAGA to stay in power, the difference doesn't amount to too much.
If it wasn't so critical for the survival of pluralistic democracy, this would actually be pretty funny.
On a different note: I actually am not so sure Cornyn would have been a stronger candidate. The base doesn't like him, and he has done nothing to gain the support of moderates or the left. That said, running against Paxton has big advantages as well. Corruption and self-dealing are issues that play well across the ideological spectrum. Dems should consider running ads playing sound bites from all of the Texas Republicans going after Paxton during his impeachment proceedings.
Also Paxton doesn't raise money as well as Cornyn does, so the Republican side will need to devote more resources to try and hold it, which could have been spent elsewhere.
The cash is basically the main reason I wanted to face Paxton over Cornyn. Texas is expensive as fuck to advertise in and Republicans will need to spend at least $100m more than they already have to pull even with the Talarico fundraising juggernaut on the airwaves and digital spaces. That $250m+ they’re going to spend in TX this cycle is not going to be spent in any of the swing seats we hold, or other red states they need to defend.
Which is, understatedly speaking, an absolutely enormous sum of money that we don’t have to overcome in the key seats most likely to form a Democratic Senate Majority for us. That alone makes Talarico in TX our ace in the hole for November, even if he loses his race to Paxton.
I do think Cornyn would be the stronger opponent, but not dramatically so, because of the reasons you list. Paxton is weaker but Cornyn is still plenty beatable.
Rubio seems to have mostly sustained it thus far, and currently there are mutterings that it miiiiiight pay off with him handed the MAGA mantle instead of Judd.
Which will of course lead to a triumphant career in actual office and in no way in tears.
Meanwhile, he's *literally* struggling to fill Trump's cast off shoes.
I want him in the Hague; he's the one who went down and negotiated sending American residents to a fucking death camp in El Salvador.
Whatever he ultimately gets out of all this, it will be as miserable and inadequate as whatever passed for his soul, if it hasn't been already.
oh and Lindsey Graham. speaking of human centipedes. I cannot wait til five minutes after Trump croaks and he's all like "yeah I never really supported him, deep down"
The "establishment wing" at this point is just basically 90% MAGA bullshit but occasionally remember they're not *actually* in a human centipede with Trump and can technically disengage whenever they want.
I think wossface the Vermont governor may be the very last of the "moderate" New England Republicans. Maybe in some state or local districts there are Republicans whose positions noticeably vary from the toxic stew of right wing Christian nationalism or at least their appeasement and (especially) Grover Norquist economics, with or without the additional Trump personality cult. There are clearly none left in Congress. It's rather incredible.
I don't know why none of these chuds can learn that Trump just has -more- contempt if you kiss his ass, especially if you've already done something unforgivable (i.e. threaten him existentially or just be an apparent loser who has nothing more to offer him). Never mind the rest of us.
I've started to think of the entire GOP as a human centipede. You do wonder what happens when the head finally expires.
At least the Indiana Republicans can leave with their dignity intact (insofar as that's a thing for the GOP in general, anyway) Haven't checked tonight's results yet, I imagine it'll be the same for Massie if he's lost.
Cassidy...thanks again for RFK, you abject loser. No great loss. Even without that, he's been making noises about stopping mifepristone and gender affirming treatment for minors, if not in general.
He's now telling Trump to pound sand over his stupid ballroom, so, that, I guess. Today, anyway.
General question for discussion — what races tonight are you watching most closely? For me, it’s PA-3, the GA court races, and KY-4. What’s everyone else keeping an eye on?
Two Supreme Court races are contested, but the Court of Appeals Judge that wrote the opinion in the Fani Willis/Trump debacle is also facing a contested election.
I think the whole emphasis on KY-04 is misplaced. Both candidates are extreme RWNJs - I don't see much difference between them, so I'm not really invested in that race.
When I watch election results come in, I want to see Democrats beating Republicans. That will always interest me the most.
Not enough surrogate speaker outreach from the Turek campaign. They had to get his name identification up quickly so they bombarded people with ads here in Iowa, but you have got to still have people here on the ground in such a small state. Turek is the better human being IMO, but voters are still clueless about him in many cases. The ads were always just a limited bio.
Firing an individual when their spouse has cancer to install your own cronies to get yourself more dialing time on your future federal campaign, I frown upon that. Wahls was removed as Minority Leader for a reason here, my friends.
If Weiser really wants to make this a race in the primary instead of just at the convention full of activists, he needs to go hard at Bennet for not saying he will support doing whatever it takes to pass a redraw for 2028 while he loudly makes that his main campaign theme. Even resulting with a close loss for him and tight win for Bennet in the primary would probably scare him into endorsing a redraw for fear of political repercussions from our party voters.
The time for standing idly by while watching Republicans try to redraw their way into a permanent majority in red states is over. We need our leaders to go for the jugular where Democrats have the power to do so.
I think Neguse will be more inclined to climb the ranks of House leadership than take a promotion. Also, rumor has it Bennet prefers Crow to Neguse, and he talks about Crow favorably.
I've seen that discourse from commenters here, probably for the first time back last summer. Rising the ranks in House leadership is also more likely than not given the fact Neguse is already assistant Democratic leader.
I believe the last person to serve in House leadership then jump to the Senate was Trent Lott in 1989, who also later became majority leader, so it's uncommon. Ben Ray Lujan also held Neguse's current post, but it's not an official leadership position, which is what I believe Neguse is gunning for.
I wonder if the upcoming losses in the South for the Congressional Black Caucus may have an influence here, as Neguse may want to stay out of a sense of duty. His district (Boulder) is mostly white, so not a particularly high chance it elects another black representative if he leaves.
And his obsession with certain numbers with arbitrary meaning. For example, the BS payout is 1,776 million dollars. Get it?! At least it's not porno-brained numbers of the sort that Elon guffaws like a hyena over.
no but it's more perversion; it actually infuriates me in a small way, the same way his lifting his leg all over DC and forcing his ugly mug onto passports and just the general, well, perversion, of the entire sorry-ass regime. If the U.S. government were a church, he'd be taking a dump on the altar. Hell, he's pretty much done that too ("that stature is NOT a golden calf, it's NOT")
The next Dem Admin should usurp every dollar in that fund on Day 1 and ask questions later, via armed agents arriving at banks if need be. They destroyed an entire federal agency (USAID) illegally; the least we can do is just take these dollars back.
Even RCP, which is, as always, late to the party, starts to show signs of a wave. You’ll also notice the lack of engagement on the post showing reality to their entirely right wing fanbase.
Some of the individual pollsters in there have been on a journey. Who/what is RMG, anyone know?
A number of the ones with 3 or 4 point spreads still, I notice they're usually well shy of 100 total--I expect there are a lot of "don't know" there. Those tend to break heavily one way or another, in the end, not split down the middle.
In a terrifying way, the defeat of Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana’s Republican primary underscores Trump’s iron-grip control of the MAGA-Fascist party into which the Republican Party has transmogrified. His dwindling base of voters continues to do his bidding. No dissent is tolerated – and Mad King Donald can be relied on to never forget a grudge.
It’s quite frightening, really, and it underscores how absolutely critical it is to build a massive Blue Tsunami in November’s Midterm Elections. We need to continue ensuring Democratic victories also in every special election / ordinary election between now and November! Today:
Georgia on my mind!
. (and its supreme court election)
That August special election in the PA House of Reps might be a better Democratic target than the one today. The August one is for HD-12, a fast-growing, Dem-trending area in the Pittsburgh exurbs. The district voted for Trump by 18.4 percent in 2024 (and 19.8 percent in 2020), but only 51-49 for the Republicans in the statewide judicial races last fall. Do Dems have any good candidates here?
I think I mentioned this race on a weekend thread, but the Dem candidate outran Harris by about 10 points when he ran for commissioner of the largest town in the district in 2025, so he seems decent.
I read that the GA judicial commission is chosen by members of the state Supreme Court. Which are almost all Republican appointees.
Ralph Hounder posted this last night: https://www.rawstory.com/georgia-supreme-court-2676909989/
"In a temporary restraining order, U.S. Chief Judge Leslie A. Gardner said the Judicial Qualifications Commission (JQC) cannot issue a non-confidential 'public statement' about the allegations outlined in April notice letters to Jen Jordan and Miracle Rankin, finding that kind of late-campaign disclosure could chill protected political speech without meaningful constitutional review."
Gardner is an Obama appointee on the M.D. Ga., and sister of Stacey Abrams.
Yeah it’s a totally biased and partisan opinion and should be thrown in the trash.
Very grateful for early voting.
I highly doubt their "opinion" would move anyone's vote anyway.
Maybe it did.
Nah, clearly many D ballot voters were not aware of the race. It was a long ballot.
The GA JQC was packed by the GOP in 2016. They literally abolished it and started over with GOP hacks.
In Indiana, a recount will be conducted in a Republican primary state senate race in which the Trump-endorsed candidate lost by three votes. No surprise that she is now claiming "fraud."
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/05/19/trump-backed-candidate-seeks-recount-in-indiana-senate-race-with-3-vote-margin/?emci=9cafdcb3-db52-f111-8ef2-000d3a14b640&emdi=23e90f27-7653-f111-8ef3-000d3a14b6d6&ceid=630426
Diego Morales, the Secretary of State, who supported her candidacy has refused to recuse himself from the recount proceedings.
Not three points -- three *votes*.
That's Phil Berger territory. But unlike her, he had the sense to concede after the first recount.
_Was_ there a first recount, or even a recanvass? If there was, the article doesn't mention it.
I can't fault a candidate for asking for a recount when they're down by 3 votes. That's way easier to overcome with a simple recanvas or recount than 23 votes.
She is claiming fraud and wants 14 votes thrown out. That is different from asking for a recount.
exactly. There was no need. Just ask for the damn recount. Maybe at least wait on "fraud" til you see whether you actually *won,* ffs.
the GOP is the party of whiny tittybabies
Sorry. I should have finished my coffee before commenting. I have corrected the error in my original post.
*3 votes - which is totally crazy, right?
Is Copenhaver appealing an earlier recount, or does she have to petition to get a recount at all?
Petitioning to get a recount (there hasn’t been one yet).
Happy Election Day y’all! While we wait for turnout anecdotes and election day reports, I wanted to share with you something I’ve noticed recently.
One thing I do feel confident about my abilities in, is spotting patterns before anyone starts talking about them. Up until now, there’s been a massive gap between Trump approval and Republican vote intention in 2026. In simple terms: The GOP was winning over a ton of Trump disapprovers in the midterms. This became so obvious in poll after poll that The Argument wrote an article about how Democrats are at their ceiling because of unpopular policy decisions by the party.
However, that article and the conventional wisdom that became fairly widespread and accepted afterwards never accounted for the very simple fact that voters are slow to react to anything. Aka, the longer people feel something they don’t like, the more likely they are to change their opinion as time passes. For average voters, it’s not a sudden switch, but a slow phase of transition taking place over many months.
The first thing that happens is voters stop strongly approving of their party. That’s a signal of more trouble for a party coming, which was early this year. After that, voters switch to disapproval, but continue supporting their party. That’s where we’ve been this Spring. Next comes the drop in party support, which is now starting as the Summer begins and recent GCB (generic congressional ballot) polling coincidentally has become even more brutal for the GOP because of this.
The last phase will be the fall, when voters decide to vote for the opposition, fully completing their transition. The entire Trump approval gap in polls has suddenly been erased, or, at the very least, shrunk massively from what it was, as voters begin to give up on hoping for change coming from the party in power. This result, imo, was always going to happen, unless the economy drastically shifted, which was absolutely not going to happen.
So much wasted ink and time spent by pundits who should know better about the basics of politics on something that was almost certainly going to change once voters got fed up enough of the cost of everything in the economy and another Middle Eastern war that has no end date in sight. This was the inevitable outcome, but too few “political experts” recognized the difference between where we’d likely end up vs what the polls actually showed back then.
I’m not going to go through every demographic in every poll, but just 1 for an example of what phase we’re now starting. Notice the Hispanic/Latino voter numbers in the latest NYT/Siena poll: Trump 20% approval, Republican vote choice: 24%. The enormous gap we’ve seen up until now has almost completely disappeared! And while Democrats obviously haven’t closed their own gap between Trump disapprovers and party vote choice, that’s the last and final step we’ll start experiencing a few months down the road.
So this supposed Democratic poll ceiling everyone’s been talking about the last few months because of “insert reasons here about being too far left” has suddenly collapsed and Democrats are doing even better in the GCB then they had been doing before. This outcome was entirely predictable if people who have enough political knowledge to know better, also looked into the future and where we were likely headed, instead of looking only at what they see right in front of them and trying to make future midterm analysis based solely on that.
The end.
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2056381884771266795
NYT/SIENA POLL: Trump Approval among Hispanic Americans
Approve: 20%
Disapprove: 71%
This is the lowest approval rating among Hispanics in NYT/Siena polling history
——
Trend (Net)
🟤 Jan 2025: -19
🔴 May 2026: -51 (↓32 points)
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2056412170192138747
NYT/Siena: Generic Ballot (Hispanics only)
🟦 Democrats: 54% (+30)
🟥 Republicans: 24%
——
Trend
• Apr 2025: Democrats +8
• Jan 2026: Democrats +16
• May 2026: Democrats +30
How close do you think we’ll get to completely closing the gap between Trump disapproval and the GCB performance? Because if we somehow closed it all the way and won the overall GCB by 20+ points (which I really don’t think will happen), we’d probably flip 12 or more Senate seats and 80+ House seats.
In 2018 we got to about 90% of Trump disapprovers voting Democratic, so that should probably be around what we’d get in 2026. That said, your question needs a bit more context. If you’re asking about the people who actually vote in the election, I’d say 90% disapprovers voting Democratic is probably attainable if not slightly more likely than less. If you’re asking about the current number of disapprovers (in this poll for example), in how many Democrats would likely get, I’d say lower than that because a LOT of the disapprovers won’t vote for a Democrat for any reason and will choose to stay home instead.
Makes sense. I know it’s early, but where do you think the GCB will be for the actual election in November?
Really hard to say, because so many things could change between now and then. That said, with caveats, I think we’re definitely headed for D+ double digits in November. My current guess is we’ll end up around D+12 and we could go as high as D+15 and as low as D+10.
I may be underestimating out of caution from having been burned in predictions so many times before, but in a hyperpartisan era, 15 points feels like the upper limit possible for either party right now. I try to always adjust after getting something wrong, so hopefully the next time I get it right.
However, that’s only if, in November: 1) Gas prices stay the same or increase more. 2) We’re still at war in Iran. 3) Inflation is the same or worse. 4) Alito/Thomas don’t retire 5) MAGA/Republicans don’t get reactivated after months of sustained daily propaganda designed specifically to try to do that. You can probably argue 4 and 5 are the same, but to me they’re separate.
A Supreme Court seat open and at risk in the midterms instantly reactivates moribund partisans (see Kavanaugh + 2018 Senate races), regardless of anything else, whereas propaganda during a time when the right wing voters are already feeling pinched living day to day may or may not have that effect.
Thomas isn't going to retire; he's going to stay there a la RBG. Alito might with his new book coming out a day before the fall cases get argued.
And even if the Iran conflict was resolved today, the gas prices will be slow to come down and inflation will stay high throughout the summer and into fall.
I think you’ve misunderstood what I’ve wrote. I’m not saying all those things that have to happen aren’t likely to. In fact, I think it’s more likely than not that all 5 are present conditions in November. But what I am saying is that I can’t say for certainty that they will right now because of how much time there is until November.
As time between now and the midterms decreases and those possibilities don’t show any sign of happening, my confidence in a higher GCB and prediction increases. It’s me acting no different then how any political models work.
The uncertainty of what could happen in the future is what leads to caution and lower numbers, but as time passes with nothing changing in the political environment, that increases the electoral vote share predicted of the political party automatically, even without any other factor changing.
I think you're overestimating the impact of SCOTUS races. Kavanaugh only became a flashpoint when the allegations came out. If a new judges goes through without a hitch like Gorsuch, then there will likely be little effect.
I think that’s a very fair point and you could be right. But only if they actually confirmed the new judge before the election. If they held it open as an incentive for their base to vote, I’d still expect a very similar outcome.
Partially, it's hard because, for example, there are so many RW polls in the RCP average now artificially inflating the GOP number. If you look back at the 2006 RCP average, even Fox News had D + 13 going into the final weekend.
Very interesting! I don’t know that I would say inevitable, after Jan 6th I thought it was inevitable there would be consequences, no way people just forgive and forget, and yet….
It’s definitely an interesting trend and I think a better explanation than most for why the GCB has lagged approval so severely but has recently been catching up.
It will be interesting to see what the summer and fall hold! 6 months ago it was impossible to foresee everything that has happened until now, same holds for the next 6 months. Trends are favorable for Dem’s, but there’s a lot of work to do to ensure it stays trending that way by Nov!
Sadly voters don’t care about anything except their own lives in politics. They never have and never will. This is also why I’ve been pushing so hard for our party supporters and leaders to go bolder and bigger than what we’ve ever thought possible politically. Like ending the filibuster, breaking apart corporate monopolies, mandating civics education in every school, expanding the Supreme Court, adding DC/PR as states, having accountability for every single person who’s been a part of Trump’s regime with real jail time etc.
Voters won’t give a shit about that as long as we also fix the economy by lowering the cost of living at the same time. Fascism, an attempted coup, the weaponization of the government against political enemies, corruption and criminality, none of that matters. If it doesn’t affect them personally, they don’t care. See how many Trump supportive Hispanics/Latinos have been shocked when they were deported for exhibit A of that. But the second voters feel like they’re falling behind on the cost of living each day, that’s what matters and that’s when they turn against a politician or party.
It’s why 2018 wasn’t a 2010 in reverse, why Democrats lost in 2024 and why 2026 is going to be a biblical level backlash against the GOP that’ll make history, barring a black swan event, massive change in the economy, a sudden upending of the way political dynamics have always worked, or, frighteningly, a massive disruption at the polls with armed government agents intimidating voters to stay home in blue city and suburban voting centres (while not being there for rural areas).
The luckiest/saddest part of this entire timeline of hell we’ve lived in is that had Trump 2 not been Trump and nuked the economy by tariffs, killed and kidnapped Americans by ICE agents and went to war with Iran, we’d be facing a 2022 midterm environment as the fascist cult completed their takeover of every institution in America while actually being supported by voters. They’ve already succeeded in doing the former, Republicans control every lever of power, from Washington, all media, to the judiciary, but at least now, they’ll face voter repercussions from it, instead of cementing permanent control for decades.
Even while the reason for the coming electoral backlash isn’t about any of that being unacceptable to voters, but instead the cost of filling up their gas tanks and spending on groceries is what caused them to break from the party. What a fucked up country that we’re all a part of.
I totally agree that we need to be aggressive about reforms. Biden totally misunderstood the directive he was given when he ran on make life normal again and just did the exact things they were doing before without major reforms.
I think there’s a big appetite for rehauling how government works for people. Things like consequences for corruption, ensuring votes matter (proportional representation, DC/PR/territories statehood) and reigning in billionaires could have wide support. Especially if pitched correctly, in the vein of, these people have been ripping you off, we’re setting the scales right, this economy will work for you now, etc.
I think a big reason people are so detached from politics and focused on their own situation is because the system feels rigged and corrupt, so why try? If you had someone who seriously went to bat fixing things structurally I really think a good chunk of them would be interested.
Potentially hopelessly naive and optimistic, but better than detaching myself!!
Biden's plans were stymied by Joe Manchin and Kristin Sinema. And it did not help to have a senator from New Mexico out of voting due to a stroke, and Diane Finestein not competent. There was also more infighting amongst Democrats than there should have been. That Biden got an infrastructure bill through was a big deal.
That’s another area where I think Democrats made a big mistake. Focusing on something intangible like infrastructure even though it badly needed an update.
We assumed since voters used transportation every day that they’d see all these projects being worked on and completed and automatically know Democratic legislation built that and helped voters travel better. We should’ve instead focused solely on issues that actually affected voters pocketbooks. Voters never would’ve realized what we did for them, because they only care about their own bottom line.
Or, at the very least, we should’ve mandated simple blue signs with white letters to be erected at every infrastructure update/creation stating very plainly “This project was created thanks to President Biden and Democrats in Congress” and mandating in the law of the signs staying up after completion. That would be a permanent constant daily reminder of what Democrats did for voters and make an impact.
But we didn’t do that, so no one felt any of the legislation we passed actually helped them. So, instead, voters went back to the Republican Party that promised them they’d fix high prices.
That stuff seems to be much MUCH more effective when it's a) concrete b) local. "Infrastructure" is pretty abstract feeling. "Fix the damn potholes in (name of local main street)" is the kind of thing that's great to run on in a more intimate race. (It helps to also follow through on it)
see: Mamdani, Zohran. It's not just the ideals and charisma, though they help. For NYCers it's "I will fix THIS and THAT specific thing"-the buses, for example.
It’s a great point that Biden had a hand tied behind his back, and I failed to acknowledge here that they did attempt some reforms with the John Lewis voting bill.
All that said, I really hope our next Dem president comes in with reform top of mind.
Something like “Accountability, Affordability, and Reconstruction” (or Alteration if you want to keep the alliteration haha)
Well, there was also the Inflation Reduction Act--a terrible name for a good bill. The Student Loan issue was also a problem, since Congress needed to do it, but the votes were not there. Although Biden made several attempts using executive authority, the courts struck it down, and that made it look like Democrats do not keep promises. We need not to promise more than we think we can do, then if we can do more, shout it from the rooftops.
At the risk of being called a dead-ender again, Biden's legislative achievements were not "the exact things they were doing before without major reforms." The IRA alone was the most significant climate bill ever passed in the U.S., and the provisions in the infrastructure law that were environmentally-focused far exceeded anything ever done before.
I agree that the Democrats will squander whatever majority they get if they don't go bold both in 2027 and, assuming they win the Presidency, in 2029. People don't want weak measures or protecting old norms when there's so much reform that needs to happen. But to deny that there are a lot of very progressive provisions in the Biden legislative record is simply wrong.
Thank you for posting this!
Well said, and agreed about the IRA being the most consequential climate bill ever! (So far) The positive effects of that will hopefully be felt for decades to come!
To rephrase my point, the bold legislation needs to include structural democratic, governmental reforms. DC/PR statehood, expanding the house/Supreme Court, proportional representation, etc.
When I said what had done before, I meant legislation focused on non-structural reforms, like Obamacare. I support Obamacare and the IRA and think we need to go further on both fronts! I just think if we come in and pass IRA 2.0 or some similarly ground breaking, but not structural changes, we run the risk of flipping right back to fascism next time the dinosaur juice gets pricy.
So not trying to say that there wasn’t good legislation, just the wrong type. Seems like we’re aligned, hope this clarifies my intent! I say it as a former Biden dead ender myself! (I still think his legacy will be net positive with time)
Dragonfire, thank you for a deep and convincing analysis! It makes me more hopeful that the coming Blue Tsunami will overcome the shenanigans that Trump & MAGA are sure to attempt this November – and in the aftermath of their demolition at the ballot box.
I unironically believe we should absolutely do this in New Jersey when we redraw. For those who don’t know, Schnall is a conservative orthodox Jewish Democrat holding a Trump +30 seat in the state legislature.
https://x.com/JonahA59/status/2056540334453149699
The Avi Schnall Gerrymander? Put as many ultra-orthodox in one merely-likely red district as possible and then find one to run as a Democrat.
This is an interesting idea, but there aren't really enough ultra-Orthodox Jews in Central Jersey (yet) in order to pull off something like this. A non-Jewish Republican would most likely win the Republican district on the map at that link.
And besides, if Schnall didn't run, we'd just be endangering the Democrats representing neighboring districts who would have to take in some strongly Republican areas of Ocean County.
Any efficient Dem gerrymander of NJ would have Ocean county all in one district. Even on a fair map it should be, because it makes geographic sense.
This pre-2021 crap where a majority of the county was paired with Dem leaning Burlington county to dilute Dem strength there was nothing but a remnant of an old Republican gerrymander.
I wonder why Ocean County was so open to Democrats in the mid to late nineties. Clinton actually won Ocean County, and Al Gore only lost it by one point
First turnout report I can find. 10% of EV.
https://x.com/MrUnionYes/status/2056731317392343169
GA: Looks like a total turnout of at least 8,400 this morning out of DeKalb County as of 9:30am.
Follow the real time turnout in DeKalb here.
https://dekalbgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/4c790bbc7bca4d748a71d69429904d6c
New poll.
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2056769602097439135
NATIONAL POLL By Echelon Insights (A)
Pres. Trump
Approve: 40% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (+2)
——
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 51% (+1)
🟥 GOP: 43% (-1)
D+8: Biggest lead of cycle by Echelon
——
🟦 Independents: D+22
🟦 Hispanics: D+30 (was D+13 in Feb)
5/14-18 | 1,008 LV | R46/D46
Since when is Echelon rated A?
One may say they are now in the upper Echelon of the polling world.
I'll show myself out.
Trump endorses Paxton https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2056774750194520292?s=20
What a PAB.
Paxton’s corruption was too much for Cornyn to overcome.
I def think Talarico has a shot, but I think there is a kernel of truth to the theory that Cornyn may have ended up doing *worse* than Paxton because he doesn't excite the base and has etch-a-sketched his past to try and win this primary, endearing him to no one.
Abbott is well liked by the base so I don't think there are many people who would show up for Paxton who wouldn't show up for Abbott.
I find Abbott's near-Orban-like domination of Texas (is it 12 years now?) inexplicable; but then, Republicans in general are like aliens at this point, mostly
Something or other be hot or cold, the lord spits out the lukewarm and apparently so does the voting public
Laodicean. Revelation 3:15-16
He knows Paxton was gonna win anyway.
Now he can take credit and demand fealty.
Lol endorsing the afternoon of election day.
Yeah someone saw exit polls lol
The Texas race is next Tuesday, not tonight.
Can't imagine what else this could be about, other than taking credit for Paxton's likely win.
Trump has endorsed Ken Paxton in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff.
This comes after John Cornyn proposed a new interstate highway in Texas that would have been named after Trump.
They never learn that no amount of groveling will ever work. I'd feel sad that the establishment wing is being forced out of the republican party for MAGA. But when the establishment wing tries to emulate MAGA to stay in power, the difference doesn't amount to too much.
Here's hoping Talarico pulls out the win.
If it wasn't so critical for the survival of pluralistic democracy, this would actually be pretty funny.
On a different note: I actually am not so sure Cornyn would have been a stronger candidate. The base doesn't like him, and he has done nothing to gain the support of moderates or the left. That said, running against Paxton has big advantages as well. Corruption and self-dealing are issues that play well across the ideological spectrum. Dems should consider running ads playing sound bites from all of the Texas Republicans going after Paxton during his impeachment proceedings.
Also Paxton doesn't raise money as well as Cornyn does, so the Republican side will need to devote more resources to try and hold it, which could have been spent elsewhere.
The cash is basically the main reason I wanted to face Paxton over Cornyn. Texas is expensive as fuck to advertise in and Republicans will need to spend at least $100m more than they already have to pull even with the Talarico fundraising juggernaut on the airwaves and digital spaces. That $250m+ they’re going to spend in TX this cycle is not going to be spent in any of the swing seats we hold, or other red states they need to defend.
Which is, understatedly speaking, an absolutely enormous sum of money that we don’t have to overcome in the key seats most likely to form a Democratic Senate Majority for us. That alone makes Talarico in TX our ace in the hole for November, even if he loses his race to Paxton.
I do think Cornyn would be the stronger opponent, but not dramatically so, because of the reasons you list. Paxton is weaker but Cornyn is still plenty beatable.
"If it wasn't so critical for the survival of pluralistic democracy, this would actually be pretty funny."
I mean that's basically (at least) the entire last 11 years or so, so
I feel like sometimes groveling does work with him..? But it never sustains, and always bites you in the ass
Rubio seems to have mostly sustained it thus far, and currently there are mutterings that it miiiiiight pay off with him handed the MAGA mantle instead of Judd.
Which will of course lead to a triumphant career in actual office and in no way in tears.
Meanwhile, he's *literally* struggling to fill Trump's cast off shoes.
I want him in the Hague; he's the one who went down and negotiated sending American residents to a fucking death camp in El Salvador.
Whatever he ultimately gets out of all this, it will be as miserable and inadequate as whatever passed for his soul, if it hasn't been already.
oh and Lindsey Graham. speaking of human centipedes. I cannot wait til five minutes after Trump croaks and he's all like "yeah I never really supported him, deep down"
The "establishment wing" at this point is just basically 90% MAGA bullshit but occasionally remember they're not *actually* in a human centipede with Trump and can technically disengage whenever they want.
I think wossface the Vermont governor may be the very last of the "moderate" New England Republicans. Maybe in some state or local districts there are Republicans whose positions noticeably vary from the toxic stew of right wing Christian nationalism or at least their appeasement and (especially) Grover Norquist economics, with or without the additional Trump personality cult. There are clearly none left in Congress. It's rather incredible.
Highway to hell?
So long to Big Bad John: https://youtu.be/IA4DiZasp2U?si=qxCEzfjhQnFK5kHd
(I tried to find any online post of just the original vid, but they've been scrubbed).
I was just thinking of posting this, but you beat me to it
I love the classics. I was actually living in Texas at the time. I saw it in the wild!
I don't know why none of these chuds can learn that Trump just has -more- contempt if you kiss his ass, especially if you've already done something unforgivable (i.e. threaten him existentially or just be an apparent loser who has nothing more to offer him). Never mind the rest of us.
I've started to think of the entire GOP as a human centipede. You do wonder what happens when the head finally expires.
At least the Indiana Republicans can leave with their dignity intact (insofar as that's a thing for the GOP in general, anyway) Haven't checked tonight's results yet, I imagine it'll be the same for Massie if he's lost.
Cassidy...thanks again for RFK, you abject loser. No great loss. Even without that, he's been making noises about stopping mifepristone and gender affirming treatment for minors, if not in general.
He's now telling Trump to pound sand over his stupid ballroom, so, that, I guess. Today, anyway.
Davis may actually survive in NC-01 again despite facing a much redder district.
https://x.com/PabloReports/status/2056773744182382621
CAUGHT ON TAPE: Congressional Candidate Laurie Buckhout Invoked Pentagon General During DUI Arrest (Exclusive)
https://migrantinsider.com/p/caught-on-tape-congressional-candidate
General question for discussion — what races tonight are you watching most closely? For me, it’s PA-3, the GA court races, and KY-4. What’s everyone else keeping an eye on?
The GA court races. If all three candidates win, it's a five-alarm fire for GA GOP.
Only two are contested.
Two Supreme Court races are contested, but the Court of Appeals Judge that wrote the opinion in the Fani Willis/Trump debacle is also facing a contested election.
Yes, that one.
Completely agree.
I think the whole emphasis on KY-04 is misplaced. Both candidates are extreme RWNJs - I don't see much difference between them, so I'm not really invested in that race.
When I watch election results come in, I want to see Democrats beating Republicans. That will always interest me the most.
KY 4 and PA 3.
Including yours, I'm interested in PA-7, GA-Gov, GA-Sen, GA-1, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, GA-13, AL-Sen, KY-Sen, KY-6 and OR-Gov.
my organization endorsed Chris Rabb in PA-03 and I led phonebanks for him, so of course I'll be glued to those results.
Not enough surrogate speaker outreach from the Turek campaign. They had to get his name identification up quickly so they bombarded people with ads here in Iowa, but you have got to still have people here on the ground in such a small state. Turek is the better human being IMO, but voters are still clueless about him in many cases. The ads were always just a limited bio.
Firing an individual when their spouse has cancer to install your own cronies to get yourself more dialing time on your future federal campaign, I frown upon that. Wahls was removed as Minority Leader for a reason here, my friends.
The staffer's spouse has cancer. Still has it. https://iowastartingline.com/news/senate-democrats-remove-wahls-as-leader-after-staffing-dispute/ Does Zach Wahls have the more progressive voting record? Does he attack Republicans more? Yes. I'm not cool with this though.
lot of that kind of thing about, sigh
Sen Michael Bennet (D) says he will not appoint Gov Jared Polis to the Senate if Bennet is elected Governor.
Bennet calls Polis' clemency for Tina Peters "disqualifying"
https://x.com/kyleclark/status/2056581440620368035?s=46&t=sbdQQeYBqp0h_Zql717iTw
I didn't think that was likely regardless, but good to get it on the record.
Has Bennet said anything about pushing to redistrict Colorado to compensate for the Republicans' new gerrymanders?
If Weiser really wants to make this a race in the primary instead of just at the convention full of activists, he needs to go hard at Bennet for not saying he will support doing whatever it takes to pass a redraw for 2028 while he loudly makes that his main campaign theme. Even resulting with a close loss for him and tight win for Bennet in the primary would probably scare him into endorsing a redraw for fear of political repercussions from our party voters.
The time for standing idly by while watching Republicans try to redraw their way into a permanent majority in red states is over. We need our leaders to go for the jugular where Democrats have the power to do so.
Gonzales is running for Senate against Hickenlooper. It’s Phil Weiser who is opposing Bennet for Gov.
Thanks for clarifying. When I read Dragonfire5004's comment, my first thought was, "Who TF is Gonzales?"
This is the trouble with having a mind like mine, I often get things mixed up. Edited and fixed, thanks for the catch!
At least we know Bennett has his sanity there even while I’m not exactly inspired by his candidacy.
His opponents were using this to attack him, so he had to say this. I still think he’ll appoint Neguse to his senate seat if he wins.
I think Neguse will be more inclined to climb the ranks of House leadership than take a promotion. Also, rumor has it Bennet prefers Crow to Neguse, and he talks about Crow favorably.
My guess Crow is closer to Bennet's favorite flavor of Democrats than Nequse.
Interesting, where have you heard that? The Neguse people I know in CO are convinced he’s going to be picked.
I've seen that discourse from commenters here, probably for the first time back last summer. Rising the ranks in House leadership is also more likely than not given the fact Neguse is already assistant Democratic leader.
I believe the last person to serve in House leadership then jump to the Senate was Trent Lott in 1989, who also later became majority leader, so it's uncommon. Ben Ray Lujan also held Neguse's current post, but it's not an official leadership position, which is what I believe Neguse is gunning for.
Roy Blunt was Majority Whip before getting elected to the Senate, I believe, too
Forgot about him. No offense, but he's pretty easy to forget.
I wonder if the upcoming losses in the South for the Congressional Black Caucus may have an influence here, as Neguse may want to stay out of a sense of duty. His district (Boulder) is mostly white, so not a particularly high chance it elects another black representative if he leaves.
I expect he would appoint Rep. Jason Crow.
Definitely a safe option, though I would hope for Neguse
Why should taxpayers pay for the January 6ers?
Trump: Because in my world, loyalty outranks law. They broke the rules for me, so you pay the bill for them. That's the transaction.
https://bsky.app/profile/iamdevil.bsky.social/post/3mm7smwjstk2q
Spoken like the mob boss he is.
I will not be sorry when his day comes. It's going to make the global celebrations on 11/7/20 look like a kid's birthday party.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UM1Rn3PD3Z0
"When that man is dead and gone..."
I was about to joke that Hunter Biden should apply for the fund, but Vance beat me to it.
And his obsession with certain numbers with arbitrary meaning. For example, the BS payout is 1,776 million dollars. Get it?! At least it's not porno-brained numbers of the sort that Elon guffaws like a hyena over.
no but it's more perversion; it actually infuriates me in a small way, the same way his lifting his leg all over DC and forcing his ugly mug onto passports and just the general, well, perversion, of the entire sorry-ass regime. If the U.S. government were a church, he'd be taking a dump on the altar. Hell, he's pretty much done that too ("that stature is NOT a golden calf, it's NOT")
The next Dem Admin should usurp every dollar in that fund on Day 1 and ask questions later, via armed agents arriving at banks if need be. They destroyed an entire federal agency (USAID) illegally; the least we can do is just take these dollars back.
And take it (or proceeds of money received and spent) from anyone who gets any.
Even RCP, which is, as always, late to the party, starts to show signs of a wave. You’ll also notice the lack of engagement on the post showing reality to their entirely right wing fanbase.
https://x.com/RCPolling/status/2056734843329773804
Democrats lead by a term-high in the Generic Congressional Ballot.
🔵Democrat: 48.8%
🔴Republican: 41.6%
RealClearPolitics Polling Average | May 19, 2026
I wonder how much voter purges and voter suppression the GOP and Trump can or will try to get away with to overcome that margin.
Some of the individual pollsters in there have been on a journey. Who/what is RMG, anyone know?
A number of the ones with 3 or 4 point spreads still, I notice they're usually well shy of 100 total--I expect there are a lot of "don't know" there. Those tend to break heavily one way or another, in the end, not split down the middle.