Morning Digest: The next eight days may be ugly for incumbents

Bill Cassidy just lost his primary. Thomas Massie, John Cornyn, and more could soon join him.

Republican Rep. Thomas Massie (left) faces a challenging primary in Kentucky’s 4th District. (Credit: Thomas Massie website)

Leading Off

Primaries

Two Republican House members are in danger of losing renomination on Tuesday in the middle of what could prove to be a particularly brutal primary month for incumbents from both parties.

Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky got a fresh reminder of how much danger he’s in when Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, another Republican on Donald Trump’s purge list, took third place in a Saturday primary that occurred just three days before Massie’s own contest.

Trump was quick to celebrate the defeat of Cassidy, who became the first elected U.S. senator to lose renomination since 2012, with a Truth Social post calling Massie “an even bigger insult to our Nation than Senator Bill Cassidy.”

And MAGAworld is relying on far more than just mean social media posts to defeat the iconoclastic Kentuckian. AdImpact reported Monday that farmer Ed Gallrein and his allies have spent about $19 million on ads either promoting Gallrein, Trump’s endorsed candidate in the dark red 4th District, or attacking Massie.

The congressman’s side has deployed a smaller, but still substantial, $14 million to defend him in what’s become the most expensive House primary on record.

But while a win for Gallrein would result in more bragging rights for Trump, who earlier this month successfully targeted several Indiana state senators who defied his push to pass a new congressional gerrymander, his revenge tour faces a new obstacle that no amount of money can overcome: the Gregorian calendar.

Trump responded to Rep. Lauren Boebert’s decision to campaign for Massie on Saturday by asking Truth Social, “Is anyone interested in running against Weak Minded Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s Fourth Congressional District?”

Trump’s call for volunteers, though, came over a month after it became too late for anyone to run to challenge Boebert for renomination this cycle. The far-right congresswoman is running without opposition in the June 30 GOP primary, so she won’t have to worry about any intraparty foes until 2028 at the earliest.

Rep. Andrew Clyde of Georgia, though, isn’t so fortunate. Clyde faces two local elected officials in Tuesday’s Republican primary who argue the congressman, a member of the far-right Freedom Caucus, has failed to bring vital federal money to northeastern Georgia.

But while Gainesville Mayor Sam Couvillon and Hall County Commissioner Gregg Poole say that Clyde is doing a poor job representing Georgia’s 9th Congressional District, one loud voice very much disagrees.

“Congressman Andrew Clyde is doing a truly fantastic job representing the Great People of Georgia’s 9th Congressional District!” Trump posted one day before the primary. Trump, who backed Clyde earlier in the cycle, reaffirmed, “Andrew Clyde has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election.”

Clyde, though, could have problems if enough Republican voters in his conservative constituency feel otherwise. Georgia requires candidates to win a majority of the vote to avoid a primary runoff on June 16, so the congressman can’t secure renomination on Tuesday with a simple plurality.

Massie and Clyde’s races are just two of the many contests to watch on Tuesday, and The Downballot previews the key races to watch on a jam-packed election night.

These races include, but are not limited to: A closely watched nomination contest in Philadelphia for the most Democratic House seat in the nation; key primaries for governor in Georgia and Oregon; a Republican meddling effort in a key Democratic pickup target; and a pair of general elections for the Georgia Supreme Court.

Liberals could make major inroads into Georgia's Supreme Court on Tuesday

The election season shifts back to Texas next week as the Lone Star State holds its primary runoffs, and at least one congressional incumbent is guaranteed to lose the day after Memorial Day. That’s because the new GOP gerrymander has set off a clash between Rep. Al Green, who has represented part of Houston since 2005, and Rep. Christian Menefee, a fellow Democrat who won a special election in January.

Rep. Julie Johnson, meanwhile, is in a tough race against former Rep. Colin Allred, her immediate predecessor in Congress, in the Dallas area. Allred led Johnson 44-33 in the first round of voting for the 33rd District, and he’s since received endorsements from the third and fourth place finishers.

But the biggest race in the state is the Republican runoff for Senate between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. The winner will take on Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who won his primary in March.

If Cornyn falls short against either Paxton or Talarico, he’d become the first elected senator in Texas to lose reelection since 1970. Liberal Sen. Ralph Yarborough that year lost his Democratic primary to the more conservative Lloyd Bentsen, who went on to defeat future President George H.W. Bush in the general election.

The GOP races to dismantle Black districts

Election Night

Special Elections

Tuesday’s special election for a conservative seat in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives pits Republican George Margetas against Democrat Ron Ruman, a fellow member of the Board of Supervisors for West Manchester Township.

Calculations by The Downballot show Donald Trump carried the 196th District, which is in York County, by a 66-33 spread in 2024.

Democrats currently hold a small 102-99 edge in the 203-member state House. Republicans last won the other vacant seat, which will be filled in an August special election.

Senate

GA-Sen, NH-Sen

The Senate Majority PAC announced Monday that it was booking $20 million in TV time to help Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia and another $10.2 million to aid Democrat Chris Pappas in New Hampshire’s open U.S. Senate seat.

SMP, the main pro-Democratic super PAC involved in Senate elections, has now announced a total of $185 million reserved for these two states and six others: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio.

The Senate Leadership Fund, SMP’s counterpart on the GOP side, previously said it had booked $342 million in fall TV time for these same eight states.

House

CA-11

Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi endorsed San Francisco City Supervisor Connie Chan on Monday ahead of the June 2 top-two primary for the seat that Pelosi is retiring from after almost four decades in Congress.

Chan, wealthy activist Saikat Chakrabarti (who served as campaign manager for now-Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez during her 2018 upset victory), and state Sen. Scott Wiener, all Democrats, are competing for one of the two spots in the general election for the safely Democratic 11th District. Recent polls have found Wiener well ahead with Chan and Chakrabarti locked in a close race for the crucial second-place slot.

While Pelosi didn’t take sides until Monday, observers had reason to think she wanted Chan to succeed her.

Politico wrote in October that Pelosi had “been publicly elevating” Chan, including by appearing with her at the city’s “No Kings” rally that month. The incumbent announced her decision not to seek reelection the next month, and Chan soon launched her campaign for her seat.

But Chakrabarti and Wiener didn’t show much deference to Pelosi. Chakrabarti notably insisted—ultimately wrongly—that Pelosi was “running again” last February when he announced his campaign.

Wiener, by contrast, launched his own effort in October when everyone was still wondering what Pelosi would do. The state senator avoided criticizing the speaker emerita in his announcement and insisted he had to act to counter Chakrabarti, whom he accused of “trying to buy the seat.” Politico, though, writes that Wiener’s move still “frustrated many in Pelosi’s orbit.”

Pelosi did not mention either of Chan’s opponents in a letter praising the supervisor as “the leader best prepared to carry forward the fight for San Francisco in the Congress of the United States.”

Chan already enjoyed the support of Sen. Adam Schiff and several influential labor groups, while Wiener has the state Democratic Party on his side. Chakrabarti, who is campaigning as a political outsider, lacks such high-profile endorsements, including from the person whom he helped rise to prominence.

“I’m just not commenting on that race,” Ocasio-Cortez told a correspondent for Drop Site News last month when she was asked if she wanted to dispel speculation that she and Chakrabarti had “a personal beef.” When AOC was pressed further, she responded, “I’m just not commenting on it at all.”

FL-09

Dairy farmer Ben Butler announced Monday that he would seek the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Darren Soto, who is seeking reelection in a Central Florida constituency that Republican mapmakers aggressively targeted.

Butler, who is one of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ appointees to the influential South Florida Water Management District, entered the race with endorsements from Reps. Kat Cammack and Greg Steube. Butler joins Thomas Chalifoux, a wealthy businessman who badly lost to Soto in 2024 under the old lines, in the August primary.

FL-14

Former state Rep. Mike Beltran said Monday that he would take on Rep. Kathy Castor, another Florida Democrat targeted by the GOP’s new gerrymander, in the revamped 14th District. Beltran, who retired from the legislature last cycle, announced that he was self-funding $1 million to jumpstart his new effort.

Beltran joins state Rep. Kevin Steele and former U.S. Senate aide Bea Valenti in this summer’s GOP primary.

Beltran took a not-very-subtle shot at Steele on his first day in the race by touting himself as “one of only seven Republican legislators in the entire state of Florida who never endorsed Ron DeSantis for President.” Steele, the Florida Phoenix’s Mitch Perry notes, originally backed DeSantis’ White House campaign in 2023 before switching to Donald Trump later that year.

Steele, for his part, says he’s already self-funded $2.5 million and launched his first commercial three months ahead of the primary. The spot touts Steele, whom Florida Politics says is the wealthiest member of the state House, as a “self-made” conservative.

Perry also writes that Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, another Republican who has had his own turbulent relationship with DeSantis, is “rumored” to be interested in opposing Castor despite his protestations to the contrary.

Collins began running to replace the term-limited DeSantis last year but struggled to gain support in the polls against Rep. Byron Donalds, Trump’s pick. Political insiders speculated last December that Collins would instead take on Castor or scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Cory Mills, but the lieutenant governor told Florida Politics, “No, I’m not running for Congress.”

While Collins has shown no obvious interest in changing his mind over the ensuing five months, he’s given his backers little reason to hope he can win his current race. The deadline to file for either governor or House is June 12, so Collins has a few weeks if he wants to reconsider whether to run for Congress after all.

Tennessee

Several notable Tennessee Democrats filed to run for the U.S. House ahead of last Friday’s filing deadline despite a brutal new GOP gerrymander that ensures Donald Trump would have won each of the nine congressional districts by at least 20 points.

Mike Cortese, a member of Nashville’s Metropolitan Council, said last week that he would oppose Republican Rep. Scott DesJarlais in the 4th District rather than continue his campaign against GOP Rep. Andy Ogles in the 5th. Trump would have won the revamped 4th, which sprawls from Nashville into rural East Tennessee, 61-37.

Memphis City Councilwoman Yolanda Cooper-Sutton, however, filed to seek the Democratic nod to take on Ogles in the 5th. Cooper-Sutton will go up against Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, who raised over $1 million before Republicans rammed through their new map, in the August primary for a district Trump would have won 61-38.

Ogles, who is plagued by a litany of scandals, still faces former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher in the GOP primary.

Over in the 7th District, businessman Darden Copeland and state Rep. Vincent Dixie, who each sought the Democratic nomination for last year’s special election, are challenging Republican incumbent Matt Van Epps. State Rep. Aftyn Behn, who defeated both Copeland and Dixie in a close primary, is not running for Congress again this cycle.

Van Epps won the last version of this seat in December by beating Behn 54-45, a 13-point underperformance compared to Trump’s 60-38 showing in 2024. Trump would have carried the new 7th by an identical margin, though Van Epps only represents 54% of the redrawn district’s residents.

Finally, state Sen. London Lamar is campaigning to succeed Rep. Steve Cohen, a fellow Democrat who announced Friday that he would not seek reelection now that Republicans have radically transformed his 9th District.

Morning Digest: Longtime Rep. Steve Cohen will retire after GOP dismantles his district

Lamar’s main primary opponent is state Rep. Justin Pearson, who began running against Cohen last year when the 9th was still a heavily Black and safely Democratic district. The winner will have a challenging time defending a seat that Republicans have transfigured into a predominantly white constituency that Trump would have won 60-39.

Both of the GOP frontrunners are legislators who supported the decision to dismantle Tennessee’s only majority Black congressional district: state Sen. Brent Taylor, who has the support of both the state’s U.S. senators, and state Rep. Todd Warner.

Judges

GA Supreme Court

Georgia’s Judicial Qualifications Commission posted statements on Monday saying it “reasonably believes” both liberal candidates for the state Supreme Court violated the state’s Code of Judicial Conduct during their campaigns, an announcement that came one day before the general election.

The JQC issued near-identical statements faulting former state Sen. Jen Jordan and personal injury attorney Miracle Rankin for starring in ads urging Georgians to vote for both of them, which it said broke a rule that “prohibits judicial candidates from publicly endorsing other candidates for public office.”

The JQC also said that the pair’s call to “restore abortion rights” broke another rule that “prohibits judicial candidates from making statements or promises that commit candidates with respect to issues likely to come before the court.” The body said it was referring the matter to its Investigative Panel “for other appropriate action.”

Jordan responded by saying the JQC was engaging in “a purely political move to keep voters in the dark.” She continued, “My speech is absolutely protected by the First Amendment and is absolutely necessary for voters to be able to make an informed decision.”

Rankin, likewise, said the Commission was targeting her “because my message is resonating with voters — that judges should serve all Georgians, without fear or favor.”

Both liberal candidates are running in officially nonpartisan statewide elections against justices appointed by then-Republican Gov. Nathan Deal in 2018. Jordan is challenging incumbent Sarah Warren, while Rankin is going up against Justice Charlie Bethel.

Poll Pile

• FL-Sen: Change Research for Freedom Project USA:

  • Alex Vindman (D): 47, Ashley Moody (R-inc): 45.

• NC-Sen: Change Research for Carolina Forward:

  • Roy Cooper (D): 49, Michael Whatley (R): 42. (Jan.: 47-42 Cooper.)

• AZ-Gov (R): Noble Predictive Insights:

  • Andy Biggs: 48, David Schweikert: 18. (Feb.: 40-19 Biggs.)

• AZ-Gov: Noble:

  • Katie Hobbs (D-inc): 41, Biggs (R): 37, Hugh Lytle (No Labels Party): 5. (Feb.: 42-27 Hobbs)

  • Hobbs (D-inc): 42, Schweikert (R): 35, Lytle (No Labels Party): 6. (Feb.: 44-35 Hobbs)

  • The previous poll did not include Lytle.

• FL-Gov (R): Change:

  • Byron Donalds: 48, James Fishback: 9, Jay Collins: 8, Paul Renner: 3.

• FL-Gov (D): Change:

  • David Jolly: 42, Jerry Demings: 27.

• FL-Gov: Change:

  • Jolly (D): 46, Donalds (R): 42.

• KY-04 (R): GrayHouse:

  • Ed Gallrein: 51, Thomas Massie (inc): 44.

  • GrayHouse tells The Downballot the poll was not conducted for a client.

• NY-12 (D): Tavern Research for Jobs and Democracy PAC (pro-Alex Bores):

  • Alex Bores: 20, Jack Schlossberg: 17, Micah Lasher: 16, George Conway: 9, Laura Dunn: 5, other candidates 2% or less, undecided: 28.

• NY-12 (D): GQR for Conway:

  • Bores: 26, Lasher: 23, Conway: 17, Schlossberg: 14, undecided: 18.

  • March: Schlossberg: 25, Conway: 16, Bores: 11, Lasher: 11.

• PA-07 (D): Tavern Research:

  • Bob Brooks: 26, Lamont McClure: 17, Ryan Crosswell: 16, Carol Obando-Derstine: 8, undecided: 31.

  • Tavern Research tells The Downballot the poll was not conducted for a client.

• NC Supreme Court: Change Research:

  • Anita Earls (D-inc): 44, Sarah Stevens (R): 40. (Jan.: 42-41 Stevens)

Editor’s Note: The last Digest incorrectly stated how long Harold Ford Sr. represented Tennessee’s 9th District. Ford represented the seat from 1975 to 1997, not 1983 to 1997.

The last Digest also incorrectly identified Justin Pearson’s age. He is 31, not 30.

This piece has been edited to highlight that there will be a key primary for governor of Georgia. While Pennsylvania also has a primary for governor, neither Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro nor Republican challenger Stacy Garrity have any intraparty opposition on the ballot.