Honestly, this is a dream scenario for us. Kemp out and MTG in definitely makes the Senate seat Lean Dem and may help us in the Gubernatorial race too. Kemp is clearly keeping his powder dry for 2028, where he will be a very real Presidential threat, but that's a problem for later...
Honestly, this is a dream scenario for us. Kemp out and MTG in definitely makes the Senate seat Lean Dem and may help us in the Gubernatorial race too. Kemp is clearly keeping his powder dry for 2028, where he will be a very real Presidential threat, but that's a problem for later...
Kemp would be a very formidable Prez candidate. Many of the upsides of DeSantis AND Youngkin without any of their very obvious downsides. We’d underestimate him at our peril.
That being said the more rabid corners of the base may not want him so
Kemp's path would involve a huge field splitting the crazy vote (which is basically how Romney got through in 2012—I still can't get over the fact that the second-place finisher was Rick Santorum, a politician so awful he managed to lose a swing-state Senate seat by >17 points to a bowl of unflavored oatmeal!).
It could happen, but I still think the 2028 GOP nominee will be a cosplay Trump.
Depends on how Trump holds up for the rest of his term. If we go into 2028 with a weak, unpopular, old man Trump who has been leading the party for over a decade, there is going to be a wide opening for a candidate like Kemp who is genuinely conservative, but also genuinely not a Trump toady.
I could see Kemp being a credible GOP Presidential Candidate for Republicans who either want to move on from Trump or need another choice. It also works to Kemp’s advantage that he’s a veteran at holding elected office well before Trump emerged as a presidential candidate.
Then again, we also don’t as of yet know about Kemp’s appeal beyond just GA.
To be clear, I'm not suggesting that Trump is running again. I assume Vance does and Trump won't be much of an asset in 2028, leaving room for, let's say, a less extreme, less juvenile candidate (moderate is too kind a label) like Kemp or Sununu or some other Republican who isn't tainted by Trump.
Trump was just interviewed on MSNBC by Kirsten Welker about the topic of running again. He had stated he'd be a two-term POTUS. I think at this point unless he's planning on doing something apeshit about this, we'll have to take him at his word.
That said, the GOP is likely going to run into another 2008 all over again but at a different level. I don't know if Kemp or any presidential candidate of his ilk would be able to fire enough support like Trump did with his base.
I don't. When people are done with a President, they generally punish the incumbent party. Otherwise William Jennings Bryan wins in 1896. Adlai Stevenson wins in 1952. John McCain wins in 2008.
I'm not arguing Brian Kemp being a credible GOP presidential candidate has correlation with him necessarily winning. It's that he would run a focused and disciplined campaign. 2028 will likely be a bloodbath for the GOP no matter who the party nominates for POTUS. Frankly, Kemp is as good as the GOP could get in 2028 as far as a presidential nominee.
John McCain did have the machine and momentum in the 2008 GOP primaries but his actual presidential campaign in the general election was lackluster and didn't have a strong ground game. Plus, his colossal mistake of nominating Sarah Palin made everything all the more probable for Barack Obama to win the general election even while Palin was considered the favorable choice.
As great as Obama was as a candidate - and I say this as someone who proudly voted for him in both the primary and general election in both 2008 and 2012 - there was and is no doubt that he immensely benefitted from the collapse of the Bush the Younger administration. Essentially no Democrat was going to lose in 2008.
I will maintain until I die that John McCain was a better candidate than Mitt Romney. McCain just had the misfortune of being nominated in 2008 when the absolutely last thing the USA wanted to do was elect a Republican Party. The hypothetical I always ask is what would have happened had Romney been nominated in 2008 and McCain run in 2012 instead?
The enormous financial crash that happened two months before the election should be noted. Obama was on the path to winning, but still close enough to sweat. The crash made it a route.
Your hypothetical makes sense in theory, but in practice McCain was 75 in 2012 and there were already Clinton/Dole vibes in the 2008 race.
Honestly, this is a dream scenario for us. Kemp out and MTG in definitely makes the Senate seat Lean Dem and may help us in the Gubernatorial race too. Kemp is clearly keeping his powder dry for 2028, where he will be a very real Presidential threat, but that's a problem for later...
Kemp would be a very formidable Prez candidate. Many of the upsides of DeSantis AND Youngkin without any of their very obvious downsides. We’d underestimate him at our peril.
That being said the more rabid corners of the base may not want him so
Kemp's path would involve a huge field splitting the crazy vote (which is basically how Romney got through in 2012—I still can't get over the fact that the second-place finisher was Rick Santorum, a politician so awful he managed to lose a swing-state Senate seat by >17 points to a bowl of unflavored oatmeal!).
It could happen, but I still think the 2028 GOP nominee will be a cosplay Trump.
Depends on how Trump holds up for the rest of his term. If we go into 2028 with a weak, unpopular, old man Trump who has been leading the party for over a decade, there is going to be a wide opening for a candidate like Kemp who is genuinely conservative, but also genuinely not a Trump toady.
I could see Kemp being a credible GOP Presidential Candidate for Republicans who either want to move on from Trump or need another choice. It also works to Kemp’s advantage that he’s a veteran at holding elected office well before Trump emerged as a presidential candidate.
Then again, we also don’t as of yet know about Kemp’s appeal beyond just GA.
To be clear, I'm not suggesting that Trump is running again. I assume Vance does and Trump won't be much of an asset in 2028, leaving room for, let's say, a less extreme, less juvenile candidate (moderate is too kind a label) like Kemp or Sununu or some other Republican who isn't tainted by Trump.
Trump was just interviewed on MSNBC by Kirsten Welker about the topic of running again. He had stated he'd be a two-term POTUS. I think at this point unless he's planning on doing something apeshit about this, we'll have to take him at his word.
That said, the GOP is likely going to run into another 2008 all over again but at a different level. I don't know if Kemp or any presidential candidate of his ilk would be able to fire enough support like Trump did with his base.
I don't. When people are done with a President, they generally punish the incumbent party. Otherwise William Jennings Bryan wins in 1896. Adlai Stevenson wins in 1952. John McCain wins in 2008.
I'm not arguing Brian Kemp being a credible GOP presidential candidate has correlation with him necessarily winning. It's that he would run a focused and disciplined campaign. 2028 will likely be a bloodbath for the GOP no matter who the party nominates for POTUS. Frankly, Kemp is as good as the GOP could get in 2028 as far as a presidential nominee.
John McCain did have the machine and momentum in the 2008 GOP primaries but his actual presidential campaign in the general election was lackluster and didn't have a strong ground game. Plus, his colossal mistake of nominating Sarah Palin made everything all the more probable for Barack Obama to win the general election even while Palin was considered the favorable choice.
In 2008, Obama sucked all the energy. Nuff said.
As great as Obama was as a candidate - and I say this as someone who proudly voted for him in both the primary and general election in both 2008 and 2012 - there was and is no doubt that he immensely benefitted from the collapse of the Bush the Younger administration. Essentially no Democrat was going to lose in 2008.
I will maintain until I die that John McCain was a better candidate than Mitt Romney. McCain just had the misfortune of being nominated in 2008 when the absolutely last thing the USA wanted to do was elect a Republican Party. The hypothetical I always ask is what would have happened had Romney been nominated in 2008 and McCain run in 2012 instead?
The enormous financial crash that happened two months before the election should be noted. Obama was on the path to winning, but still close enough to sweat. The crash made it a route.
Your hypothetical makes sense in theory, but in practice McCain was 75 in 2012 and there were already Clinton/Dole vibes in the 2008 race.