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SanJoseAJ's avatar

I know the most recent polls have caused a lot of heartburn in fellow KH voters. If we look at the signs from actual elections and early voting tabulations,

- the Democratic firewall in PA has reached about 33% of target with 4 weeks to go; I'd be shocked if the Dems don't wind up with a 450,000-500,000 vote by mail firewall, way above the 400,000 target

- a Democrat just flipped a Trump +15 mayor post in AK

- Washington primary which has historically provided a good read on the general election environment indicated a slightly more Dem leaning environment than 2020

- in his two Presidential elections, Trump never exceeded 47% in his vote share. He hasn't done anything that would endear himself to the independents/undecideds and is not expected to between now and 11/5

maybe we should focus on phone banking/door knocking/making donations, you know, actions that will actually help her win instead?

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Darren Monaghan's avatar

Very good analysis. Lots of hard work needed in these final 3 weeks in the swing states, Trump doesn't really have much of a ground game apparently so to kill it with GOTV volunteering could well be enough (hopefully), never be complacent though, as Kamala said, "we are the underdogs'!!

πŸ’™πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡²πŸŽ―πŸ™

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SanJoseAJ's avatar

The gap in GOTV effort between the two campaigns is a good point. Trump's win needs to rely more heavily on the harder-to-reach/low-propensity voters turning out to vote than KH's. In 2020 Dems almost had no GOTV but still eked out a win. Now the script has flipped so that should favor the Dems instead this time around.

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ArcticStones's avatar

And strongly so! The Trump Campaign has outsourced GOTV to the likes of Charlie Kirk and his Turning Point USA, and to Elon Musk. What could possibly go wrong?

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ArcticStones's avatar

Joshua Smithley currently estimates the firewall at 162k.

https://nitter.poast.org/blockedfreq

However, as I understand it, that Pennsylvania Firewall is only counting voters who are registered as Democrats – not our share of Independents, who by all indications are breaking towards Harris.

"Worry less, do more!"

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Stephen A Mikalik's avatar

That figure is based on variance between ballots returned by Democrats vs the ballots returned by Republicans as reported by the individual county reports updated daily & compiled by VoteHub. The request Firewall is currently 527k & has stayed around that amount since Friday.

Personally, I think to target needs to get to 450k to feel comfortable. Based upon the current statistics described here, that's very possible.

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