Republicans were banking on him holding on by virtue of personal popilarity in spite of the underlying shift in his district under him. Like a Republican Colin Peterson.
Makes me wonder about MI as well as the GOP has been imploding there for years since 2020.
Even the only House pickup the GOP got in MI in years, current Rep. John James is in danger of losing his seat by the same Democratic Candidate he beat in 2022, Carl Marlinga.
I don't think the MI GOP will stay the same forever. However, if bringing back former Rep. Mike Rogers (who was never a Tea Party or Trump Republican to begin with) to run for office as the next US Senator was a push, that means there's a thin bench the MI GOP seems to be working with these days.
Rogers didn't just retire from the House. He did so back in the 2014 midterms, before Trump even announced his run for the presidency back in June 2015. That's a long way back in today's post-pandemic environment.
Remember that he only won that seat by half a point in a midterm with a Democratic president. Polls are not showing that we have a great ground game in Michigan while the GOP state party is a complete sh#tshow.
Then in that standpoint, as far as MI is concerned it could be 2014 all over again but completely in reverse towards the Democratic Party's favor in the state.
Regarding U.S. House seats in Michigan in general, there's not as much in the way of pickup opportunities as there are in CA and NY, where most of the losses happened back in 2022. I'm still grappling with the embarrassment of previous DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney losing his House seat. All future DCCC Chairs should hold office in seats where they aren't endangered or in really close races.
I suspect that if we win it will be because we outrun Biden in the suburbs. If we are we are polling better than average in these suburban districts then we might be in really good shape, especially with the two competitive Phoenix suburban seats.
The competitive seats in Arizona are CD 1 and 6, one NE Phoenix and one Tucson and environs. Polling is also showing CD 2 in northern Arizona to be close with a hugh undecided population. I think we have a good chance in 1 and 6, and 2 would be icing on the cake that I'll believe when I see it.
Yeah I don’t think we’re getting CD2. The numbers there look good for Gallego running up the score but I have a hunch which way those undecideds will break
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-harris-election-10-18-24#cm2f1511a001d3b6mbt8vxutx
Leaked Republican memo says Congressional Leadership Fund is very concerned about NY, AZ and CA races. Also Bacon in NE
It’s my understanding that they’ve viewed Bacon as effectively gone for a month or two, no?
Republicans were banking on him holding on by virtue of personal popilarity in spite of the underlying shift in his district under him. Like a Republican Colin Peterson.
If they're that concerned about AZ, saying it's a worse environment than 2020, that's great for us, no?
Makes me wonder about MI as well as the GOP has been imploding there for years since 2020.
Even the only House pickup the GOP got in MI in years, current Rep. John James is in danger of losing his seat by the same Democratic Candidate he beat in 2022, Carl Marlinga.
I wonder how much of a premium one can place on State party competence. Worth what, maybe 0.25-0.5%?
I don't think the MI GOP will stay the same forever. However, if bringing back former Rep. Mike Rogers (who was never a Tea Party or Trump Republican to begin with) to run for office as the next US Senator was a push, that means there's a thin bench the MI GOP seems to be working with these days.
Rogers didn't just retire from the House. He did so back in the 2014 midterms, before Trump even announced his run for the presidency back in June 2015. That's a long way back in today's post-pandemic environment.
Remember that he only won that seat by half a point in a midterm with a Democratic president. Polls are not showing that we have a great ground game in Michigan while the GOP state party is a complete sh#tshow.
Then in that standpoint, as far as MI is concerned it could be 2014 all over again but completely in reverse towards the Democratic Party's favor in the state.
Regarding U.S. House seats in Michigan in general, there's not as much in the way of pickup opportunities as there are in CA and NY, where most of the losses happened back in 2022. I'm still grappling with the embarrassment of previous DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney losing his House seat. All future DCCC Chairs should hold office in seats where they aren't endangered or in really close races.
I’d say so. the state party there is a disaster at that, and Lake isn’t helping
Good!
I suspect that if we win it will be because we outrun Biden in the suburbs. If we are we are polling better than average in these suburban districts then we might be in really good shape, especially with the two competitive Phoenix suburban seats.
There’s the seat Ciscomani holds down in Tucson, too.
The competitive seats in Arizona are CD 1 and 6, one NE Phoenix and one Tucson and environs. Polling is also showing CD 2 in northern Arizona to be close with a hugh undecided population. I think we have a good chance in 1 and 6, and 2 would be icing on the cake that I'll believe when I see it.
Yeah I don’t think we’re getting CD2. The numbers there look good for Gallego running up the score but I have a hunch which way those undecideds will break
The incumbent is not popular(that helps)